Group 1 - Trump's governance style has transformed political power into a personal tool, challenging traditional boundaries of the U.S. political system [2] - During his first term from 2017 to 2020, Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to implement loose monetary policies, indicating his intent to politicize central bank policies [3] - The recent attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks the first instance in U.S. history where a president has sought to remove an incumbent Fed governor, reflecting a significant power struggle [4] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that if Trump successfully replaces Powell or Cook, it could trigger a financial crisis comparable to a "financial nuclear explosion" [6] - Lagarde highlighted the dangers of politicizing the Fed, citing historical examples where political interference led to severe economic consequences, such as the 1970s inflation crisis [8] - The current global debt level exceeding $307 trillion raises concerns that politicized monetary policy could lead to a debt crisis worse than that of 2008 [8] Group 3 - The uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies has already led U.S. companies to delay approximately $230 billion in investment plans, affecting global supply chains [9] - The ongoing tug-of-war between professionalism and populism in economic governance is exemplified by Trump's "presidential dominance" approach, which undermines the traditional firewall between the Fed and the White House [10] - The independence of central banks is crucial during crises, as demonstrated by the Fed's swift response during the 2008 financial crisis, which was based on professional judgment rather than political calculations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining low borrowing costs and stability in the global financial system, and any attempts to undermine this independence could lead to higher long-term interest rates and increased inflation risks [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - ECB Executive Schnabel warns that weakening the Fed's independence could backfire, raising borrowing costs instead of lowering them [1] - Historical evidence shows that central bank independence reduces risk premiums and eases financing conditions for households, businesses, and governments [1] - Political pressure for rate cuts could erode investor confidence in the Fed's policy certainty, potentially leading to higher long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - Schnabel indicates that the U.S. could export higher inflation, as countries struggle to combat global inflation [2] - The loss of trust in U.S. policies could threaten the dollar's supremacy in the global financial system, although no viable alternative to the dollar currently exists [2] - ECB President Lagarde emphasizes that Trump's interference with the Fed could pose serious risks to both the U.S. and global economies [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain current borrowing costs due to upward inflation risks, according to ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel [1][3] - Despite the impact of U.S. trade disruptions, the European economy remains in good shape, but price increases may exceed expectations in the coming years [1][3] - Schnabel believes that the current policy may be slightly accommodative, indicating no reason for further rate cuts at this time [1][3] Group 2 - The market widely expects the ECB to keep borrowing costs unchanged during the upcoming policy meeting on September 11 [3] - Preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone in August is expected to rise from 2% in July to 2.1%, slightly above the ECB's target [3] - Schnabel has previously stated that the threshold for further easing of policy is "very high," and several colleagues have echoed this sentiment [3] Group 3 - Schnabel highlighted that rising food prices in the U.S., along with trade tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies, indicate that inflation risks are tilted to the upside [3] - Concerns about sustained low inflation are dismissed by Schnabel, who believes the likelihood of inflation expectations becoming unanchored is very low after years of high inflation [3] - Global borrowing costs may begin to rise earlier than expected due to trade, high government spending, and an aging population [3] Group 4 - Schnabel warned that any loss of independence by the U.S. Federal Reserve could lead to higher global borrowing costs, which would have severe implications for the global financial system and impact the ECB [4]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump raises significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications for U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged violations related to two mortgage applications, which is unprecedented in the 111-year history of the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Cook is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor and her removal challenges the legal protections that typically safeguard such positions from arbitrary dismissal by the President [1][3][4] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The incident highlights a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's independence, with concerns that the institution could become a tool for presidential political agendas rather than a body guided by economic data [3][4][9] - Historical precedents indicate that political interference in central banking can lead to severe economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in hyperinflation [3][4][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, there was a notable market reaction, with U.S. Treasury yield spreads reaching a three-year high and significant declines in Asian and European stock markets [7] - Investors expressed heightened concern over policy uncertainty, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and a surge in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 4: Global Consequences - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence could have far-reaching effects beyond the U.S., impacting global financial markets and leading to instability in emerging markets [6][9] - Experts warn that if the Federal Reserve's policies become subject to presidential whims, it could destabilize the dollar and disrupt international trade and capital flows [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, marking a potential shift in the balance of power between the White House and the central bank [1][3][4] Group 1: Implications of the Dismissal - Cook's lawsuit against her dismissal emphasizes the importance of central bank independence, arguing that if Trump's reasoning is upheld, it could set a precedent that undermines the status of all Federal Reserve governors [3][6] - The market reacted sharply to Cook's dismissal, with significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market and declines in Asian and European stock markets, indicating that investors view this as a serious threat to the financial system [3][4] Group 2: Global Reactions and Concerns - Major financial media and experts have expressed alarm, with some stating that this event represents a dark day for central banking and could jeopardize the rule of law in the U.S. [4][6] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could have severe implications not just for the U.S. but for global financial stability, as the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency [4][6] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been a cornerstone of U.S. financial dominance since its establishment in 1913, and Trump's actions are seen as a significant breach of this principle [6][9] - The ongoing power struggle raises concerns that if the independence of central banks is compromised, it could lead to a broader erosion of financial norms and rules, affecting global capital markets [7][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has sparked significant market and public reaction, indicating a potential power struggle over monetary policy control [1][3] Group 1: Political Implications - Trump's actions are perceived as a deliberate attempt to exert control over the Federal Reserve, aiming to shift monetary policy decision-making to the White House [1] - The independence of central banks is under threat, as highlighted by Lagarde's warning that any erosion of this independence poses serious risks to both the U.S. and global economies [3] - The legal framework surrounding the Federal Reserve allows for political maneuvering, as the term "for cause" for dismissal is not clearly defined, creating a space for political battles [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is responding to potential interest rate cuts, with futures indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, aligning with Trump's demands but driven by different motivations [5] - The current economic context includes a significant national debt of $37 trillion, increasing interest burdens, and a struggling housing market under high rates, prompting calls for quicker monetary easing [5] Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for financial stability, as any perceived political interference could undermine trust in U.S. debt and the dollar as a global reserve currency [7] - Historical examples from other countries, such as Turkey, illustrate the dangers of politicizing central banks, leading to inflation and currency depreciation [3][7] - The ongoing situation raises concerns about the long-term credibility of U.S. monetary policy, as any shift in perception could lead to increased market volatility and a loss of investor confidence [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's unprecedented attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve signifies a powerful economic backlash, marking the potential end of the monetary theory that has dominated globally for decades, and the decline of central bank independence is the prologue to this grand theoretical shift [1] Group 1 - The attack on the Federal Reserve is not merely a personal preference or short-term electoral strategy, but rather a reflection of broader economic currents [1] - The decline of central bank independence is indicative of a significant theoretical transition in economic thought [1]

文︱刘澜昌 这一次，特朗普是真的撕掉了最后的遮羞布。作为一名现任总统，他公然解除了已经通过参议院确认、享有14年任期保障的美联储理事的职务。而且，被开 除的还不是普通理事，而是唯一的黑人女性理事——库克。至于理由？仅仅是几份房贷申请中存在所谓的"文书瑕疵"。这样的操作，简直像是在把美联储当 成自己公司的人事部门，似乎央行独立性在他眼里不过是一场笑话。 库克的律师十分聪明，他们没有把重点放在个人清白上，而是直击制度核心。他们指出，如果这种解雇成立，那美联储的独立性将名存实亡。总统只要找一 个借口，就能把不合意的理事扫地出门。今天是库克，明天就可能是主席鲍威尔。届时，美联储的货币政策将不再由经济数据驱动，而是完全取决于白宫的 政治意图。说到底，这场官司并非私人恩怨，而是一次制度存亡之战。 最耐人寻味的是白宫发言人的表态。莱维特声称，特朗普"确认有充分理由解雇库克"。这句话的潜台词很清晰：总统只要说"充分"，那就是充分。至于法 律、法院、甚至参议院的确认，统统都可以被架空。这种逻辑就是赤裸裸的权力至上。 因此，这不仅仅是库克与特朗普的个人较量，而是制度与权力任性的对抗，是央行独立性与总统个人意志的碰撞。很多人坚信美 ...

Group 1 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges for the first time in decades, posing major risks to markets and the economy [1] - Trust in central banks is crucial for anchoring inflation expectations, and the effectiveness of monetary policy is enhanced by their independence [1] - Recent pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump, including attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve officials, have intensified the debate around central bank independence [1] Group 2 - Europe has a strong tradition of central bank independence, which is legally enshrined in EU treaties, reducing the likelihood of a similar situation as in the U.S. [2] - The European Central Bank is closely monitoring inflation trends, with expectations to maintain the deposit rate at 2% for the second consecutive month [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade wars are overshadowing economic prospects, with inflation expected to fall below the 2% target in the short term due to various factors [2]