所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-02 所长 早读 为何贵金属大跌？ 观点分享： 周五，贵金属经历了一场惊心动魄的大波动。白银一度跌超 30%，创下 1980 年 3 月以 来的最大单日跌幅；黄金一度跌 11%，为 1980 年 1 月以来最惨重的一天。 其导火索是美联 储人事预期的突变：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主席，市场解读为鹰派转向，动摇此前 "央行独立性削弱—货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的叙事逻辑； 另外前期涨幅过大和高杠杆踩踏则是下跌的放大器：1 月黄金最高涨幅 30%、白银近 70%，价格处于历史高位，RSI 超买，交易拥挤，获利盘巨大。 再有交易所风控加码，高杠杆多头资金压力陡增，下跌触发连环止损→被动平仓→价格 续跌的恶性循环。后期贵金属走势将如何发展？我们的相关研究员将会持续关注和分享。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面与市场预期仍然偏强，价格下方空间较为有限。一方面，短期供需偏紧且现 货市场表现坚挺。上周 SMM 行业 ...

全国统一容量电价机制如期落地 20260201 摘要 容量电价政策旨在完善电力市场机制，解决峰谷套利和分时电价无法完 全回收成本的问题，为储能行业提供长期投资回报保证，吸引更多投资， 抵消短期政策调整带来的冲击，并促进储能行业长期发展。 国内储能容量电价政策落地和海外户用储能需求高增长将加速储能需求 释放。碳酸锂价格波动率下降，消除市场对终端需求抑制的担忧，为把 握锂离子板块调整机会提供重要时机，建议关注宁德时代等龙头企业。 短期内需关注 2 月春节导致的排产下滑，但预计 3 月将迎来排产高峰。 原材料涨价已逐步向下游传导，头部企业凭借更强的议价能力，盈利受 影响较小。 宁德时代预计 2026 年出货量将保持增长，受益于国内储能市场占有率 提升及欧洲市场高增长。公司通过完善原材料布局和成本传导机制，有 望保持稳定盈利，目前估值具吸引力。 储能政策明确指向独立储能，不包括新能源配储，旨在推动 2025 年及 未来电化学储能装机发展。该政策综合了多省试点结果，各省可根据统 一政策制定细则，利好龙头设备和系统供应商。 Q&A 容量电价机制的设计与传导方式有何不同？ 容量电价机制的设计主要体现在从用户侧传导，而非发电 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of southbound capital transactions, which has risen to 20%-30% since September 2024, nearly doubling compared to before 2024. This trend indicates that both active and passive foreign capital are closely aligned with the Hong Kong stock market, lacking any leading indicators [3]. - The report discusses the recent implementation of a capacity pricing mechanism for power generation by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, which aims to enhance the marketization of electricity pricing and support the development of the electricity market [3]. - The macroeconomic outlook suggests potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under the nomination of Walsh, focusing on supply-side analysis and price stability, which could impact market dynamics significantly [3]. Southbound Capital Strategy - Since September 2024, the share of southbound capital transactions has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, indicating a strong inflow of medium to long-term funds into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The report notes that southbound capital tends to react to market conditions, with a tendency for reverse buying during market downturns, reflecting a growing influence in sectors like semiconductors and dividends [3]. - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks primarily from passive ETFs and insurance funds, suggesting a shift in investment strategies [3]. Power Equipment Sector - The newly introduced capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the marketization of electricity pricing, which will support the development of the electricity market and improve revenue for storage and generation sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes that the capacity pricing mechanism will gradually transition towards a fully market-oriented approach, which is crucial for the future of electricity trading [3]. - The new policies are expected to increase revenue for storage solutions, potentially alleviating cost pressures on battery and material prices [3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair may lead to a paradigm shift in policy analysis from demand-side to supply-side, focusing on price stability as the core of monetary policy [3]. - The report highlights two critical areas for validation: the potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity and whether a loose monetary policy under these conditions will not lead to inflation [3]. - If these expectations are not met, the market may face challenges related to term premiums and inflationary pressures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of Document No. 114 marks a significant policy breakthrough for the new energy storage industry in China, establishing the capacity value of new energy storage from a national institutional level and promoting the development of a new power system [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Implications - Document No. 114 introduces a new pricing mechanism for energy storage, addressing structural contradictions in the existing capacity pricing system, such as declining coal power utilization hours and the lack of cost recovery channels for pumped storage projects [2][3] - The document elevates the status of energy storage within the power system, transitioning it from a marginal role to a core position, thus enhancing its market positioning and revenue mechanisms [2][3] - The policy aims to improve the flexibility of the new power system while meeting market demands, as part of a broader effort to reform the electricity market [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new policy is expected to lead to a transformation in the profitability model for energy storage, shifting from a reliance on peak-valley arbitrage to a multi-revenue model that includes capacity revenue, energy revenue, and ancillary service revenue [4][5] - The document signals a recognition of the capacity value of energy storage, paving the way for commercial energy storage to participate in the capacity market and explore new business models such as "shared storage + capacity leasing" [5][6] - Companies like Sungrow and Haibo Shichuang are adapting their strategies to align with the new policy, focusing on integrated solutions that combine energy generation and storage [5][6] Group 3: Industry Growth and Challenges - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage installed capacity is projected to reach 136 million kilowatts, with a significant increase in utilization hours, highlighting the growing importance of energy storage as a stabilizer and regulator in the power system [1][8] - The policy encourages the development of flexible consumption capabilities among end-users, which is essential for maximizing the utilization of renewable energy sources [8] - The document emphasizes the need for improved energy consumption capacity to address the mismatch between renewable energy supply in the western regions and demand in the eastern regions, which is a critical bottleneck for high-quality, large-scale development of renewable energy [7][8]

Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, specifically for coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [1] - The notice allows localities to establish independent capacity pricing mechanisms for new energy storage based on local coal power capacity pricing standards, discharge duration, and peak contribution [1] - Experts believe that energy storage is a current bottleneck in the power system, and independent energy storage construction can effectively address this issue, thereby promoting the development of the energy storage sector [1] Company Highlights - Sunshine Power is expected to see a 70% year-on-year increase in energy storage shipments in the first three quarters of 2025, with overseas shipments rising from 63% to 83% [1] - Southern Power Grid Energy Storage, a subsidiary of Southern Power Grid, is steadily developing its pumped storage and independent energy storage operations and is likely to benefit from the high growth potential of the new energy storage industry [1]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 电力设备及新能源 行业快报 容量电价机制升级，新型储能迎发展良机 事件点评 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 | 资料来源：聚源 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 相对收益 | 1.68 | -0.55 | 25.5 | | 绝对收益 | 3.33 | 0.86 | 48.8 | 分析师 贺朝晖 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525030003 hezhaohui@huajinsc.cn 分析师 周涛 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523050001 zhoutao@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 电力设备及新能源：AIDC 供电三重挑战下， SST 率军突围-华金证券-电新-行业深度报告 2026.1.19 电力设备及新能源：商业航天崛起，关注轻量 化高效太空光伏技术-华金证券-电新-行业快报 2026.1.7 涪陵电力：电网运营+配电网节能业务双轮驱动 -华金证券-电新-涪陵电力-公司快报 2026.1.3 隆华科技：25Q3 业绩稳 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the impact of Document No. 114 on the energy storage and lithium carbonate sectors [1] - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Tariff Mechanism on the Power Generation Side", aiming to support energy transformation [3][8] - The notice and the 15th Five - Year Plan form policy synergy, and the new energy storage in China has entered a new stage of large - scale development [3] - In the next 5 years, new energy storage will steadily reach 642GW, doubling the 15th Five - Year Plan target, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to increase by nearly 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategy - In the short term, it will continue to support the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices [4] Group 3: Core Content of the Notice - The notice constructs a "classified improvement + unified compensation + supporting optimization" system, filling the gap in the capacity tariff for independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - The classified capacity tariff mechanism is established, and a unified compensation mechanism for reliable capacity is set up after the continuous operation of the spot market, covering coal - fired power, gas - fired power, and eligible independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - Supporting measures include adjusting the lower limit of the medium - and long - term transaction price of coal - fired power, standardizing the settlement of energy storage charging and discharging electricity fees, and optimizing the cost sharing of regional pumped - storage [9] Group 4: Core Policies for Different Power Sources - For coal - fired and gas - fired power, the proportion of fixed cost recovery by coal - fired power capacity tariff is ≥50%, and gas - fired power can establish a capacity tariff [10] - For pumped - storage, existing projects maintain government pricing, and new projects adopt a "unified capacity tariff + market revenue sharing" model [10] - For independent new energy storage on the power grid side, capacity tariff can be given, calculated according to the coal - fired power capacity tariff standard combined with peak - shaving capacity, and managed by a list system [10] Group 5: Core Impact on the Energy Storage Industry - Policy synergy: The capacity tariff policy in the notice activates the energy storage market, promoting new energy storage to move from a "supplementary role" to a "main support" [11] - Technical orientation: Focus on long - duration energy storage, promoting the transformation of lithium - ion batteries and the large - scale development of non - lithium long - duration energy storage and sodium - ion batteries [11] - Market expansion: The notice helps to achieve the 300GW new energy storage installation target in the 15th Five - Year Plan [11][12] - Industrial linkage: It drives the growth of demand in the energy storage industry chain and upstream raw materials, and promotes the technological iteration of non - lithium energy storage [11] Group 6: New Energy Storage Installation Forecast - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will reach nearly 500GW, and the cumulative installation will increase from 144.7GW to over 640GW [12] - From 2026 - 2029, it is a steady promotion period with a gradually slowing growth rate, and in 2030, new installation will decline [12][16] - Sodium - ion batteries and other technologies will penetrate at a moderate pace, and long - duration energy storage will become the mainstream in 2030 [12][16] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Demand Calculation - Core assumptions include the proportion of different technical routes, consumption standards, and conversion standards [14] - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will be close to 500GW, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to change [14][15][16] - The demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 12.30 million tons in 2025 to 23.43 million tons in 2029, and then drop to 12.66 million tons in 2030 [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the power generation sector, including Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and China Power Investment, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, aimed at addressing the challenges of the new energy transition and ensuring the development of regulating power sources [1]. - The notification highlights the need for a balanced approach to "new energy consumption, power security, and regulating power source profitability," which is crucial for the construction of a new power system [1]. - The report emphasizes the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for four types of regulating power sources, including independent new energy storage and pumped storage, to ensure fair competition and adequate compensation for capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Capacity Price Mechanism - The notification introduces a differentiated capacity pricing mechanism for various regulating power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on factors such as coal power capacity standards and peak contribution [1]. - The policy aims to ensure that the capacity value of regulating power sources is adequately recognized and compensated, addressing previous issues of insufficient cost coverage [1]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - A key breakthrough in the notification is the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation [1]. - This mechanism aims to avoid inefficient resource allocation by linking compensation to the actual contribution of each unit to the power system [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their integrated operations and stable profit potential, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng [1]. - It also highlights the potential for hydropower companies to benefit from increased output and stable dividends, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [1].

核心观点 完善发电侧容量电价机制，火电或迎容量电价超额上涨 本周五，发改委、能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，分类完善煤电、气电、抽蓄容量电价 机制，并首次在国家层面明确电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制，关键要素如下：（1）对于火电，因部分地区煤电利 用小时数快速下降，因此将补偿固定成本比例提升至不低于 50%，可根据实际情况进一步提升，对于煤电市场化交易 电价下限不再统一执行 20%，而由各地合理确定下限，同时放宽长协签约比例要求，鼓励电价与成本变化相结合；（2） 对于抽蓄，现行电价机制对企业成本约束不足，因此对 633 号文出台后开工的电站，实行弥补平均成本的一省一价的 统一容量电价，电站可自主参与市场交易；（3）对于电网侧独立新型储能，以煤电容量电价为基础，根据满功率连续 放电时长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长确定折算比例，预计各省差异较大，如目前甘肃省将持续时长设置为 6 小时； （4）有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，在现货市场连续运行后，对本省机组可靠容量按统一原则补偿；（5）对于 可靠容量充裕或用户经济承受能力较弱地区，严控新增调节性电源项目。 火电盈利模型变革得到进一步明确，关注火 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 容量补偿完善，更看好北方电厂 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴杰(分析师) | 021-23183818 | wujie3@gtht.com | S0880525040109 | | 阎石(分析师) | 021-23185741 | yanshi@gtht.com | S0880525070005 | 本报告导读： 年度长协下移，容量电价托底；继续看好北方煤电盈利的长期趋势。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 公用事业《12 月低基数用电仍偏低，待 26 年政 策发力》2026.01.26 公用事业《国泰海通公用事业月度电力数据库 _20260123》2026.01.23 公用事业《公用事业数据周报_20260119》 2026.01.19 公用事业《跨境碳定价，绿电价值或提升》 2026.01.18 公用事业 ...