1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. Although the economic data announced in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With the stock market remaining strong, the impact of new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, bond market sentiment remained weak. In October, potential negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, the intensification of anti - involution, and market waiting for the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Potential positives may be the slowdown of economic data boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected incremental fiscal strength, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to materialize. Overall, October may be a window period for risk clearing after the negatives are realized, and the bond market may stabilize. However, the rally phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, which may be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deteriorating trade negotiations. It is recommended to patiently wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle or late fourth quarter [8][67]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 9 - Month Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Bond Market - In September, the domestic bond market fluctuated widely under the influence of the stock market, regulatory policies, and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. Treasury futures ended the month lower. At the beginning of the month, the stock market's decline boosted bond market sentiment, but the new public - fund regulations issued on September 5 caused a significant correction in the bond market in the early part of the month. In the middle and late parts of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, but the bond market still fluctuated due to stock - market and anti - involution disturbances. The 30 - year Treasury futures had the largest adjustment, while the 5 - year Treasury futures had the smallest adjustment [11]. - The interest - rate curve steepened further in September. The long - end yields increased more, mainly due to the stock - market pressure, while the short - end was mainly affected by the new public - fund regulations, with the 2 - year variety being the most affected [14]. - The basis of Treasury futures narrowed in September. The short - end varieties were stable due to the loose funds, while the long - end basis continued to narrow, indicating that futures adjusted less than the spot [15]. 3.1.2 Overseas Market - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there may still be 50bp of cuts within the year, but there were differences among Fed members regarding the future path. The market also had a large divergence from the Fed's official view. Further interest - rate cuts may not lead to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields unless the US economy deteriorates significantly or Trump challenges the Fed's independence [18]. 3.1.3 Funding Situation - In September, the net injection of MLF and outright reverse repurchases was the same as last month, and short - term reverse repurchases were increased to support the funds. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchases at the end of the month to support cross - quarter funds [23]. - The funding rates increased seasonally at the end of the month but were not tight. The DR007 increased compared to the beginning of the month but was lower than the same period in previous years. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rates remained stable, and the overall funding situation was stable [23]. 3.2 Bond Market Environment Analysis 3.2.1 Fundamental Situation - In August, domestic economic activities further slowed down. In terms of credit expansion, the willingness of the real economy to borrow was still weak. The new social financing in August was 256.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.55 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in on - balance - sheet RMB loans. The M1 growth rate increased for five consecutive months, indicating an improvement in the activation of existing funds [34][36]. - In terms of real - economy activities, in August, the national economic activity data further slowed down. The characteristics of "supply better than demand, external demand better than domestic demand" were still obvious. Domestic demand was weak and showed marginal slowdown. Export growth slowed down, import growth declined, inflation remained at a low level, consumption continued to weaken, and investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all declined significantly [40][43]. - In September, the leading indicators continued to improve, but there were still concerns. The official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, but the new - order index representing demand increased the least. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, and the construction and service industries' prosperity declined [49]. - High - frequency indicators showed that in September, there was a supply - demand divergence. Production indicators continued to rise, while domestic - demand indicators were weak, and external demand showed resilience [52]. 3.2.2 Policy Aspect - In the short term, the possibility of additional monetary - policy easing is low. The central bank is likely to focus on implementing existing policies. Attention should be paid to the possibility of fiscal - end stimulus and the central bank restarting bond purchases, especially the possibility of issuing special Treasury bonds in the fourth - quarter NPC Standing Committee meeting [58]. 3.2.3 Funding Aspect - In October, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose. The seasonal pressure on the funding side is weaker than in September. The main risk is the possible additional issuance of government bonds, but the central bank is likely to provide hedging [60][63]. 3.3 Next - Month Market Outlook 3.3.1 Market Logic and Outlook - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. After the negatives are realized, the bond market may stabilize, but the rally may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations [67]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage**: Currently, there are no obvious positive - arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in with caution. Some non - CTD bonds of 30 - year and 10 - year bonds have reverse - arbitrage space, but there is a risk of non - convergence at maturity [68]. - **Basis Strategy**: Focus on going long on the basis of short - end contracts. As the short - end varieties may return from a premium state to a normal discount state, and the current basis is at a relatively low level in the same historical period, there may be more room for upward regression [68]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: It is not recommended to participate due to the poor liquidity of the next - quarter 03 contracts [69]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: In the short term, focus on steepening the yield curve. In October, the funding situation is expected to be stable, but the possibility of monetary easing is low, and more credit - expansion policies may lead to an increase in long - end yields [69].

Group 1 - Recent policy expectations continue to suppress bond market sentiment, with concerns over institutional redemptions remaining prevalent, leading to renewed challenges at key interest rate levels [1] - The central bank's resumption of 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicates a strong willingness to support liquidity, which has helped stabilize the bond market [1][3] - The net redemption scale of bond funds by institutions such as wealth management subsidiaries, banks, and insurance companies is at a relatively high level, particularly as the end of the quarter approaches, which may trigger negative feedback in bond fund redemptions [1] Group 2 - The current economic contradictions are primarily structural, with limited necessity for short-term interest rate cuts, although there remains room for reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter [3] - The bond market is experiencing mixed factors, with cautious sentiment prevailing and downward pressure remaining due to macroeconomic conditions and capital diversion to the stock market [5] - As the holiday approaches, market risk aversion is increasing, and institutions are opting to hold cash, leading to a potentially weak and volatile bond market [5] Group 3 - The U.S. government faces a shutdown crisis, which could impact the release of key economic data and subsequently affect market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Recent announcements of new tariffs by former President Trump are set to take effect, indicating a new phase of tariff increases that may further influence market dynamics [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand repair foundation remains weak, and the policy - driven infrastructure investment has slowed down, dragging down overall investment. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low, and policies may focus on expanding fiscal, credit, and real - estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market [11]. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but there is still no clear breakthrough. Patience is needed to wait for better allocation value. Currently, with economic data released, the market focus should shift to the capital market and the stock - bond seesaw. Short - term bond varieties have higher certainty as cross - month funds are stable [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the performance of long - term bond varieties, while stable cross - month funds supported short - term varieties [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed slightly, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.8075%, up 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: Cross - quarter funds were stable. There were 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 2886 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Short - term capital rates rose slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits down 0.22bp to 1.3103%, the 7 - day rate up 3.17bp to 1.5873%, and medium - and long - term funds rising slightly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was 1.67% with little change [10] 4.2 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [13]. - On the morning of September 29, Premier Li Qiang met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son - hee, expressing China's willingness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with North Korea [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan, all for supplementing project capital, and efforts are being made to invest the funds in specific projects [13]. - The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 29, with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96201 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79372 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the tax payable was 3.90125 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; and the asset - liability ratio was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Transaction data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 29 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. For example, the closing price of TL2512 was 113.720, down 0.540, with a decline of 0.47% [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank capital sentiment index, short - term and medium - long - term capital rates, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate is presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Diagrams of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) are mentioned [36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 19, 2025, the debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds of government bonds are nearly issued, with about 2.1 trillion yuan of remaining varieties to be issued, indicating fiscal room for more efforts. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, there are several possibilities, and different issuance methods have different requirements and limitations [2][32]. - The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong. The 14D reverse repurchase is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and the operation may be more flexible. The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented" [3][57]. - From late September to early October, in order to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious [4][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Classification, Progress, and Outlook 3.1.1 Types of Debt - Resolution Local Bonds - **Replacement Bonds**: General replacement bonds include replacement bonds (used from 2015 - 2019) and replacement - type refinancing special bonds (used from 2024 - 2026). The 2025 quota of replacement bonds is nearly issued. The replacement bonds in 2015 - 2018 issued 12.2 trillion yuan, and in 2019, 1579 billion yuan was issued. From 2024, the replacement - type refinancing special bonds are used, with 2 trillion yuan per year from 2024 - 2026, and as of September 19, 2025, 19747 billion yuan has been issued [14][19][20]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Since 2020, they have become a new tool for local government debt resolution. The issuance can be divided into four stages, with a total issuance of about 31298 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the 4000 - billion - yuan quota added in October 2024 has accumulated an issuance of 3981 billion yuan, and the existing quota is nearly issued [24][25][26]. - **Special Newly - Added Special Bonds**: Some newly - added special bonds not disclosing "one case and two books" are mainly used for resolving implicit debts. From 2024 - 2028, there is an 8000 - billion - yuan quota per year. As of September 19, 2025, 11506 billion yuan has been issued, and the excess may be used to repay government arrears to enterprises [27][31]. 3.1.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bond Varieties and Q4 Outlook - As of September 19, 2025, debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds are nearly issued, and the remaining varieties to be issued are about 2.1 trillion yuan. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, for treasury bonds, raising the quota requires approval from the National People's Congress, and there may be a rush - to - issue phenomenon in advance. Using the remaining quota does not require approval from the National People's Congress, but the current space is limited. For local bonds, the remaining quota and replacement bond quota have been allocated, but issuance requires fiscal approval [2][32][36]. 3.2 Monetary Policy 3.2.1 How to View the Tightening of Funds During the Tax Period and at the End of the Month? - In mid - September, due to the central bank's restrained liquidity injection, tax payments, and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the funds tightened briefly. Looking forward, funds may gradually ease in the last 7 days of the quarter, and the risk of fund fluctuations is relatively limited [44][47]. 3.2.2 How to Understand the Reform of the 14D Reverse Repurchase Bidding Method? - The 14D reverse repurchase bidding method is changed to multiple - rate bidding, which further strengthens the policy - rate status of the 7D reverse repurchase. The theoretical price is currently 1.55%. The 14D reverse repurchase in September is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and subsequent operations may be more flexible [50][51][52]. 3.2.3 Will China Follow the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut? - The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented". The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong, and the focus is on structural policy tools to boost broad credit [57][59][60]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy - From late September to early October, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious, and appropriate strategies include small - band micro - operations, short - credit coupon income, and waiting for better opportunities [61][65][66]. - Some varieties show cost - effectiveness and can be gradually entered during the adjustment process. According to the three - factor interest - rate bond comparison analysis framework, continue to pay attention to the 6y CDB bonds, 7y local bonds, and 10y CDB bonds. Funds with stable liabilities can pay attention to 20y CDB bonds and 30y treasury bonds [67]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted net OMO injections, and the funding situation was balanced but tight [81]. 3.4.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [83]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of CDB bonds narrowed. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds and CDB bonds performed better than the long - end varieties [78][88].

Market Overview - On September 17, the market experienced a significant rise, while brokerage stocks saw a consistent decline, interpreted as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and GJD's directive to slow down market pressure [1] Sector Performance - Four sectors showed notable performance: - The Hang Seng Technology and semiconductor equipment sectors surged, driven by Baidu Kunlun's GPU gaining significant market share in China Mobile's bidding, alongside increased capital expenditure from tech giants due to AI narratives and global liquidity easing [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector's rise was attributed to rumors of SMIC testing domestic DUV lithography machines, marking a significant milestone in semiconductor equipment technology [3] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector faced a sharp decline due to panic triggered by the plummeting stock of Yaokang Pharmaceutical, compounded by previous threats from Trump, although the sector is now showing signs of value after recent corrections [4] - Gold stocks also fell, reflecting the market's tendency to "buy the expectation, sell the fact," despite rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and international gold prices reaching historical highs [4] Capital Flow Trends - Market funds continue to gravitate towards robotics, Hang Seng Technology, and semiconductor equipment sectors, indicating a strong interest in large tech directions [5] Regulatory Influence - Recent market trends indicate a pattern where technology stocks decline while consumer and banking stocks rise, suggesting regulatory efforts to channel funds towards technology sectors while intentionally managing market pressure to achieve a slow bull market [6] Market Outlook - Concerns are raised about the market's sustainability without loose credit and monetary policies, as well as the potential impact of major shareholders reducing their stakes and the absence of large financial institutions to support the market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic data for August showed marginal weakness rather than a sharp decline. It's not necessary for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which could bring disturbances to the bond market. However, as the fastest - strengthening phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may ease. Overall, the bond market's suppression may ease but still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient for better allocation opportunities. Currently, with the release of economic data, the short - end bonds may be more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose funds [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures recovered in the afternoon, with most contracts closing higher. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2 - 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7800%, down 2bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank resumed net injections in the open market, and the funding situation remained stable. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 40 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] 3.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th local time, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, Spain, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The real - estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [14] - As of the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for multiple Treasury bond futures contracts on September 16th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes figures related to the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase interest rate change [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [37]

Group 1 - Personal loan growth has been boosted due to traditional summer consumption peaks and policies promoting consumption, leading to increased loan demand [1] - New housing policies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have improved housing demand, resulting in a noticeable increase in personal housing loan consultations and signings [1] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing local hidden debts reached 1.9 trillion yuan by the end of August, contributing to a higher loan growth rate of approximately 7.8% after adjusting for related impacts [1] Group 2 - The social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies [2] - Government bond balances increased by 21.1% year-on-year, indicating strong support for social financing growth [2] - M1 and M2 growth rates are narrowing, with M2 at 331.98 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while M1 grew by 6% to 111.23 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 3 - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6% to 14.87 trillion yuan [4] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a favorable lending environment [4] - Analysts expect the macroeconomic environment to remain stable, with a predicted growth target of around 5% for the year, reflecting positive market confidence [4] Group 4 - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to continue playing a role in enhancing financial support for key sectors, while maintaining reasonable total financial growth [5] - The need for optimizing the structure of financial support is emphasized, especially in light of high household leverage and pressure on bank asset quality [5]