Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first half of 2025 experienced high activity with a shift from a bull market to a high-volatility phase, driven by the issuance of credit bonds and interest rate bonds, which supported the real economy [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Expansion - The bond primary market continued to expand in the first half of 2025, with credit and interest rate bonds driving issuance, contributing to market stability and financing for key sectors [3]. - The number of credit bonds issued reached 11,077 with a total issuance scale of 10.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.75% and 4.39% respectively [3]. - Special bonds and technology innovation bonds (科创债) saw rapid development, with local governments increasing support for technology enterprises, facilitating direct financing for high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan, a growth of about 44.7% compared to the same period in 2024, playing a crucial role in driving effective investment [4]. - Special bonds were directed towards municipal infrastructure, green transformation, public services, and high-end manufacturing, significantly supporting ongoing and new projects [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Trends - The bond market transitioned to a high-volatility phase due to multiple factors, including monetary policy shifts and external disturbances, marking the end of a prolonged bull market [5][6]. - From March 17, 2025, the bond market experienced a notable shift, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from approximately 1.6% to 1.9%, before declining to 1.64% by July 4, 2025 [6][7]. - The market sentiment improved as liquidity remained balanced and monetary easing policies were implemented, leading to a recovery in bond prices [5][6]. Group 4: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the second half of 2025, with the third quarter seen as a favorable window for bond allocation, while the fourth quarter may experience increased volatility due to supply pressures [8][9]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a "duration + wave" strategy, focusing on segmented market opportunities, and recommend a "barbell" approach for interest rate bonds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing active trading and a stable market environment, with expectations for continued economic growth and policy support in July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) increased by 0.07%, with a latest price of 125.14 yuan [1]. - The ETF saw a turnover rate of 16.9% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 2.706 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market activity [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF over the past week was 6.306 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Economic Outlook - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 16 billion yuan [2]. - Historical trends suggest that July typically sees a looser liquidity environment, with the exchange rate stabilizing below 7.2, which may not hinder the central bank's monetary easing [2]. - Analysts predict a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with cumulative growth for the first half of the year potentially exceeding 5%, reducing pressure for economic growth in the latter half of the year [2]. - The likelihood of introducing a comprehensive policy package similar to the "924" initiative in July is considered low, with expectations for continued implementation of existing policies [2].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic economy is showing signs of weakness in export support, with June's port container throughput growth slowing to 2.2% compared to 6.5% in April and May, suggesting a potential decline in production support from exports [15][20] - The report highlights that the political bureau meeting in July is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies, with a focus on consumption and investment, while the GDP growth rate for the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [20][22] - External uncertainties are noted, particularly regarding trade negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to increased market volatility and affect risk appetite [23][24] Group 2 - The liquidity analysis shows that the central bank's actions have kept funding prices relatively stable, with a significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit in June, leading to a net financing of -575.1 billion [25][28] - The report suggests that while there may be limited room for significant liquidity easing in July, there is potential for seasonal recovery in funding conditions, with DR007 expected to stabilize around 1.5% [31] - Institutional behavior indicates strong supply and demand dynamics, with local government bond financing expected to increase significantly in July, potentially reaching between 1.5 to 1.7 trillion [4][11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on June 23, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan after 242 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The interbank market's 7-day repo rate (DR007) remained stable, averaging 1.53% in June, with a closing rate of 1.5075% on June 23 [1] - Analysts expect the liquidity in June to remain stable across the quarter-end, supported by previous large-scale reverse repo operations and increased fiscal spending [1][2] Group 2 - The PBOC has conducted significant reverse repo operations in June, including 1 trillion yuan for 3-month and 400 billion yuan for 6-month terms, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan after offsetting maturing repos [2] - Current funding prices are relatively low, and the supply of funds is ample, with banks maintaining a high willingness to lend [2] - The PBOC is likely to continue its trend of excess Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, which is expected to support liquidity in the banking system amid large-scale government bond issuances [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted two rounds of buyout reverse repurchase operations within the same month, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Buyout Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC initiated a buyout reverse repo operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - This marks the first time the PBOC has utilized this tool twice in one month, reflecting a strategic move to enhance liquidity management [1]. Group 2: Signals from the Operations - The operations in June coincide with the maturity of 500 billion yuan of three-month and 700 billion yuan of six-month buyout reverse repos, leading to a net injection of 200 billion yuan by mid-June [2]. - The timing of these operations suggests an intention to guide market expectations and bolster confidence, as they were announced earlier than usual [2]. Group 3: Impacts of the Operations - The increase in mid-term liquidity through these operations is expected to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, especially during a period of significant government bond issuance and peak maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [3]. - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to using various monetary policy tools to support credit availability for enterprises and households, thereby reducing financing costs in the real economy [3][4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the first time the tool has been used twice in a month [1] - The reverse repurchase operation is aimed at enhancing liquidity management and cross-period adjustment capabilities within one year [1] - A total of 20 billion yuan in net reverse repurchase operations is expected to be implemented by June 16, following the maturity of 5 billion yuan in three-month and 7 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos [1] Group 2 - The increase in reverse repurchase operations in June follows a 1 trillion yuan reduction in reserve requirements in May, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity amid high government bond issuance and peak periods for bank interbank certificates of deposit [2] - The long-term liquidity supply exceeding 1 trillion yuan in May effectively countered the pressure from government bond net payments, which reached a record high of 910.2 billion yuan [2] - The policy signals a continued emphasis on quantity-based monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant increase in liquidity operations through a buyout reverse repurchase agreement, indicating a proactive approach to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system amid high demand due to upcoming financial obligations [3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On June 16, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term, marking the second such announcement within a month [1][3]. - The PBOC has been active in reverse repurchase operations for nine consecutive months, with amounts ranging from 500 billion to 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in the timing of disclosures from month-end to earlier announcements [3][4]. - The liquidity demand in June is heightened due to a record 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit maturing, with significant amounts due in the first half of the month [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Policy Signals - The increase in buyout reverse repurchase operations is aimed at stabilizing the banking system's liquidity during a peak period of government bond issuance and maturing interbank certificates [4]. - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [4]. - Recent data shows that overnight funding rates have stabilized around 1.4%, with the seven-day funding rate between 1.5% and 1.65%, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the liquidity fluctuations at the end of the quarter will be manageable, with the PBOC likely to continue utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity across different maturities [5]. - The anticipated government bond issuance pressure in June is expected to be lower than in May, suggesting a balanced approach to managing liquidity and maturing monetary policy tools [5].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Treasury bond futures maintained a narrow - range oscillation last week with a slight upward movement throughout the week. The overall implementation of broad credit still needs time, while the trend of broad money remains unchanged. Although treasury bond futures have been oscillating higher recently, the overall trend in the future is still expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to arbitrage strategies, as well as allocation and hedging needs [2]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts oscillated upward this week. The TL contract had a relatively large increase due to fluctuations in the overall market's risk appetite, and the yield curve flattened again. In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9, still higher than the funding rate but with reduced cost - effectiveness. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination rebounded slightly, reflecting a decline in market sentiment. Currently, market liquidity is limited and not suitable for operation. In terms of the curve structure, opportunities for the curve to steepen should be noted [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific summarized content provided in the report. 2.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.15%; foreign capital increased by 2.86%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.67%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.4%; foreign capital decreased by 3.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.86% [9].

业内专家表示，考虑到6月全月共有1.2万亿元买断式逆回购到期，全月将实现买断式逆回购净投放。 6月初，中国人民银行公告开展1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，为保持全月总体流动性充裕营造良 好基础。此举也打破了以往月末公告当月相关操作数据的惯例，让市场吃下定心丸。 "本次买断式逆回购操作后，6月将实现5000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购净投放，以及3000亿元6个月期买 断式逆回购净回笼，共计2000亿元资金净投放。"中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计6月政府债发行 压力或低于5月，但考虑到既要对冲政府债发行压力，又要兼顾货币工具到期续作，预计6月中期借贷便 利（MLF）也可能延续净投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，在5月人民银行降准释放约10000亿元长期流动性基础上，6月买 断式逆回购加量，继续加大中期流动性投放，一方面有助于在政府债券持续大规模发行以及近月银行同 业存单到期规模处于"高峰期"阶段，保持银行体系流动性持续处于充裕状态，控制资金面波动；另一方 面，这也释放了数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，有助于推动宽信用进程，强化逆周期调节。 最后，买断式逆回购操作从月末披露到提前发布，显示货币政策 ...

6月买断式逆回购将实现净投放！中国人民银行6月13日发布的公告显示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕， 6月16日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月。 业内专家表示，考虑到6月全月共有1.2万亿元买断式逆回购到期，全月将实现买断式逆回购净投放。 6月初，中国人民银行公告开展1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，为保持全月总体流动性充裕营造良 好基础。此举也打破了以往月末公告当月相关操作数据的惯例，让市场吃下定心丸。 "本次买断式逆回购操作后，6月将实现5000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购净投放，以及3000亿元6个月期买 断式逆回购净回笼，共计2000亿元资金净投放。"中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计6月政府债发行 压力或低于5月，但考虑到既要对冲政府债发行压力，又要兼顾货币工具到期续作，预计6月中期借贷便 利（MLF）也可能延续净投放。 "6月处于半年末流动性考核的关键节点，叠加同业存单大规模到期等因素，全月金融机构对流动性需求 较高。"业内专家表示，中国人民银行提前提供中期资金支持，体现了对市场的呵护。预计下一步中国 人民银行将综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性合理 ...