证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力 医药行业周报 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 医 药 行 业 观 点 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年02月01日 1.技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力，重视供给变量 根据医保商会数据，2025年中国医药保健品出口额1113.41亿美元，增长3.14%，其中西药原料出口额428.67亿美元，占西 药总出口的76.8%，同比微降0.27%。原料药出口能保持出口总量的相对稳定，是克服全球贸易变局和内部价格竞争内卷下 实现的，是中国原料药产业竞争力的体现。受关税贸易影响，2025年中国对美国医药出口下降了10.6%，而非美市场，欧 盟增长11.38%，新兴市场增长4.49%。展望2026年原料药贸易依然存在较多的不确定性，中国与印度之间原料药竞争合作 将进一步演绎。价格方面，价格竞争内卷是一方面，另一方面合成生物学等新技术加持，新工艺新产能的投产，单位成本 下降是重要一面。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its stable generics business and growth potential in small nucleic acid drugs [5]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in generics, with a stable growth phase, and is strategically positioning itself in the small nucleic acid innovation space, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7][10]. - The generics business is projected to maintain steady cash flow, while the innovative drug segment is anticipated to create a second growth curve, enhancing the company's overall valuation [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 28.82 yuan, with a market capitalization of 13,833.60 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 3,340 million yuan (2023), 3,446 million yuan (2024), 3,472 million yuan (2025E), 3,852 million yuan (2026E), and 4,266 million yuan (2027E) [6]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 3.07% (2023), 3.17% (2024), 0.75% (2025), 10.95% (2026), and 10.74% (2027) [6]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 489 million yuan (2023), 489 million yuan (2024), 465 million yuan (2025), 481 million yuan (2026), and 520 million yuan (2027) [6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 28.30 (2023), 28.31 (2024), 29.78 (2025), 28.76 (2026), and 26.61 (2027) [6]. Business Overview - The company, formerly known as Wansheng Pharmaceutical, has been in the generics business for over 20 years and has recently expanded into innovative drugs, particularly small nucleic acids [7]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company holds 209 domestic drug registration approvals, with a revenue contribution of 32.09 billion yuan from drug formulations, accounting for 93% of total revenue [7][20]. - The company’s core therapeutic areas include cardiovascular, diabetes, digestive, skin diseases, and chronic kidney disease, which collectively contribute 77% of its revenue [20]. Growth Drivers - The generics business is entering a stable growth phase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.75% from 2019 to 2024 [10]. - The company is actively investing in small nucleic acid drugs, with R&D expenses increasing from 180 million yuan in 2021 to 417 million yuan in 2024 [10][49]. - The N-ER platform for nucleic acid drug delivery has been established, supporting multiple projects in clinical development [50]. Competitive Position - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by national drug procurement policies, with a significant portion of its core products already included in procurement programs [32][43]. - The upcoming unified procurement for previously selected products is expected to stabilize cash flow and enhance the company's competitive position in the generics market [42][43].

Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug sector is experiencing a significant surge, marking the beginning of a golden era driven by technological breakthroughs and capital enthusiasm [2][11][22] Industry Developments - On January 5, 2026, Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug Plozasiran was approved for domestic market use to treat hyperlipidemia [1] - On January 9, 2026, Rebio Biotech, known as "China's first small nucleic acid stock," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its stock price soaring by 40% on the first day, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 13 billion HKD [1] - China National Pharmaceutical Group announced a 1.2 billion CNY acquisition of Hegia Biotech, securing the world's first clinically validated liver-targeted delivery platform capable of annual dosing [1] Market Trends - The global small nucleic acid drug market has seen nearly 100 business development (BD) collaborations in the past three years, with transaction numbers and amounts increasing annually, reaching over 30 BD deals in 2025 totaling nearly 30 billion USD [4][9] - Notable transactions in 2025 included Novartis acquiring Avidity Biosciences for 12 billion USD and multiple other significant deals involving RNA therapies [7][9] Clinical Advancements - Ionis's APOC3 ASO drug Olezarsen showed promising results in reducing triglyceride levels by up to 72% in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia, leading to an increase in peak annual sales forecast from 1.5 billion USD to 2.5 billion USD [12] - GSK's ASO therapy Bepirovirsen is expected to be the first drug to achieve functional cure for chronic hepatitis B, with a peak annual sales potential of 2 billion USD [12] Emerging Opportunities - The small nucleic acid drugs are expanding into various therapeutic areas, including obesity and kidney diseases, with promising results from clinical trials demonstrating significant weight loss and metabolic health improvements [13][15] - The number of small nucleic acid drugs in development globally has surpassed 1,200, with siRNA and ASO therapies being the most prominent [17] Strategic Collaborations - Domestic companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative value in small nucleic acid drugs, with active BD transactions, including significant collaborations by Rebio Biotech and other firms [18][21] - Companies like Saintin Biotech are forming strategic partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms to advance their small nucleic acid drug pipelines [19] Conclusion - The convergence of technological advancements, capital influx, and successful clinical outcomes is propelling small nucleic acid drugs into a pivotal position within the pharmaceutical industry, with China poised to become a global innovation hub [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with significant market potential anticipated for weight loss and diabetes treatments [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the potential of GLP-1 drugs [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector and the approval of numerous medical devices by the National Medical Products Administration [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with expectations for market growth driven by a large patient population [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the impact of policies on inhalation formulations [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the approval of numerous medical device registrations and the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector [46][48]

Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhen Hanyu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a national high-tech enterprise focused on the research, production, and sales of peptide drugs, listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2011 (stock code: 300199) [2] - The company has established several national-level laboratories and has received multiple awards, including the National Technology Invention Award (second class) and the Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Award [3] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its global presence by accelerating the production capacity of its Wuhan base to meet the rising global demand for GLP-1 raw materials, with core product Liraglutide already approved by the FDA [3] - Future plans include launching 1 to 2 new products annually in the U.S. market and registering existing products in Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific regions [3] - The small nucleic acid field is identified as a second growth curve, with ongoing research targeting major diseases such as hyperlipidemia and diabetes [3] Group 3: CRDMO Business Expansion - The company is building a comprehensive CRDMO service platform, leveraging its expertise in peptide and small nucleic acid production to offer tailored high-quality services [4][6] - A dedicated CRDMO service team is being formed to enhance business capabilities and capitalize on market opportunities [6] Group 4: Domestic Market Strategy - The company is optimizing its supply chain to enhance product competitiveness, ensuring cost efficiency across all production stages [7] - Significant efforts in academic promotion and brand building have established a strong market presence, supported by long-term partnerships with distributors [7] - Future focus areas include increasing academic promotion for existing and upcoming products and maintaining stringent quality control [7] Group 5: Financial Structure and Performance - The company has seen steady growth in operating cash flow, with sales collection management reaching optimal levels [8] - A planned capital increase of 9.68 billion CNY aims to allocate 70% for R&D and capacity upgrades, which is expected to lower the debt-to-asset ratio and improve capital structure [8] - Financial expenses are projected to decrease in 2025 compared to 2024, alleviating financial burdens and supporting profit growth [9] Group 6: Production Capacity Utilization - The Wuhan production facility has maintained operations during recent holidays, indicating strong demand and growth trends [9] - The facility operates on a three-shift system to meet market needs, adhering to a "build and sell" model to align capacity with market demand [9]

Core Viewpoint - The medical ETF (159828) has seen a rise of over 1.3% on January 23, with net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan for five consecutive days, indicating market interest in clinical value and innovation in the healthcare sector [1]. Group 1: Investment Focus - Future investments in the pharmaceutical sector should emphasize the intrinsic logic of clinical value, which addresses the clinical needs of patients and healthcare providers, with both domestic and international policies assigning higher premiums to clinical value [1]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are driven by innovation (including overseas expansion, AI, and new technologies), performance validation, policy benefits, and seasonal market movements, with a short-term focus on innovative drugs and CXO [1]. Group 2: Key Themes and Directions - High-elasticity sub-themes include AI in healthcare/pharmaceuticals, brain-computer interfaces, and small nucleic acid drugs, which are expected to gain traction [1]. - Continuous attention is required on the collaboration outcomes from the JPM conference, clinical data for innovative drugs, and performance realization [1]. - In the realm of innovative medical devices, there is optimism regarding the upgrade of high-end medical equipment and high-value consumables [1]. Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The medical ETF (159828) tracks the CSI Medical Index (399989), which selects listed companies in the A-share market involved in medical devices, medical services, and medical information technology to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies in China's healthcare industry [1].

Group 1 - The National Drug Administration of China announced that by 2025, the country is expected to approve 76 innovative drugs, ranking first globally [2] - The approval process reforms have effectively stimulated innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, leading to a projected total transaction volume of over $130 billion for Chinese innovative drug BD (business development) overseas licensing in the same year [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index (987018) showed strong performance with significant gains in constituent stocks, indicating positive market sentiment towards innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - Positive clinical data for small nucleic acid drugs has been reported, with ongoing optimism for the innovative drug sector [2] - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals released mid-term data for ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, demonstrating efficacy in patients with T2D obesity, which enhances market confidence in small nucleic acids for weight management [2] - The recent listing of Reborna Bio on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen active stock performance, with its core pipeline targeting thrombotic diseases, indicating a promising market potential exceeding $50 billion [2]

创新药ETF国泰（517110）跟踪的是SHS创新药指数（931409），该指数从沪深港三地市场中选取涉及 生物医药、化学制药等领域的具有创新能力的医药上市公司证券作为指数样本，重点聚焦研发实力强、 成长性好的公司，以反映中国创新药行业上市公司证券的整体表现，并侧重于成长型投资风格。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月21日，创新药ETF国泰（517110）盘中涨超1%，市场关注行业出海与业绩亮点。 华鑫证券指出，2025年是中国创新药出海具有标志性意义的一年，全年BD出海授权交易总金额达到 1356.55亿美元，首付款70亿美元，交易数量157起，均达历史新高。进入2026年，中国创新出海迎来开 门红，持续落地的BD交易验证了中国创新药的全球竞争力，支撑长线资金信心。展望2026年，创新仍 是 ...

Core Insights - 2025 is a landmark year for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with total BD (business development) outbound licensing transaction value reaching $135.655 billion and transaction count hitting 157, both setting historical highs [1] - The continuous execution of BD transactions in 2026 validates the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, with innovation remaining the main investment theme in the pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The small nucleic acid drug sector is attracting more attention from leading companies due to advancements in new target development and treatment convenience, alongside continuously validated clinical data, accelerating outbound licensing and merger collaborations [1] - In the GLP-1 sector, a new pricing system is forming in the domestic market, but the long-term market potential remains promising due to the large patient population for weight loss and diabetes [1] - The development of oral autoimmune drugs is gaining focus, with domestic companies exploring related new targets [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) tracks the Innovation Drug Index (950161), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting listed companies focused on new drug research and development in the biotech and chemical pharmaceutical sectors to reflect the overall trend and market performance of China's pharmaceutical industry innovation [1]