Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury market remained stable this week, continuing the high - level slight fluctuation pattern. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. - The US economy accelerated expansion in Q3, but there are risks of weakening growth momentum driven by consumption due to high inflation [24]. - The US labor market has strong resilience, and inflation pressure remains sticky [25][26]. - Different asset classes showed different trends this week, with some rising and some falling [11][28][29][30][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Yield Review This Week 1.1 US Treasuries Continue High - Level Slight Fluctuation Pattern - Yield changes of US Treasuries from January 16th to 23rd, 2026: 1 - month (+3bp, 3.78%), 1 - year (-2bp, 3.53%), 2 - year (+1bp, 3.60%), 5 - year (+2bp, 3.84%), 10 - year (0bp, 4.24%), 30 - year (-1bp, 4.82%). The US Treasury market was stable despite geopolitical disturbances in the equity market. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. 1.2 US Treasury Auctions This Week - The auction of 20 - year US notes on January 21st was weak. The auction size was $13 billion, the winning yield was 4.846%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.86 times (higher than the previous value), and the tail spread was - 1.025 (lower than the previous value). Indirects were allocated 64.7%, Directs 29.1%, and Primary 6.2% [20]. 2. Review of US Macroeconomic Indicators - **Business Index**: In January 2026, the preliminary data of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly up from 51.8 in December, indicating a slow - down in the improvement momentum. The preliminary data of the US S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, the same as the previous month but slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating a slow - down in the growth momentum. The US Q3 GDP (annualized quarterly - on - quarterly) reached 4.4%, higher than the forecast and the previous value, achieving the fastest growth in two years [4][24]. - **Inflation**: In November 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth slightly up from 2.7% in October, in line with market expectations, showing sticky inflation pressure [5][25][26]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US after seasonal adjustment increased by 1,000 to 200,000, higher than the previous value but better than the market expectation, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][25]. 3. Review of Major Asset Classes - **Bonds**: German bond yields rose overall, and Japanese bond yields remained at a high level. The rise in German bond yields was due to the market's reaction to the marginal tightening of ECB policy and the revision of inflation/growth expectations. The significant increase in Japanese bond yields was due to concerns about large - scale bond supply and bond market liquidity [28]. - **Equities**: Asian markets performed strongly, while European and Indian markets were under pressure. The top three gainers were the Korean Composite Index, the Russian MOEX, and the A - share Shanghai Composite Index. The top three losers were the Indian Sensex30, the German DAX, and the French CAC40 [29]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and crude oil rose due to safe - haven and geopolitical factors, while Bitcoin, live pigs, and coking coal declined. The top three gainers were London silver, London gold, and Brent crude oil. The top three losers were Bitcoin, the live pig index, and the coking coal index [30][31]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and Asian currencies were under pressure overall. The top three gainers were the Russian ruble, the Swiss franc, and the euro. The only two decliners among major global foreign exchanges were the Indian rupee and the Hong Kong dollar [32]. 4. Market Tracking - The report provides various charts to show the changes in bond yields, stock indices, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [34][44][49][54].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's economic performance in 2025 shows stable development in employment and income, with a focus on high-quality employment and income growth driven by various policies and initiatives [3][5][10]. Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Beijing remained stable at an annual average of 4.1%, consistent with the previous year, with monthly fluctuations between 4.0% and 4.3% [4]. - Employment initiatives targeted at youth, particularly college graduates, and support for disadvantaged groups have been emphasized to promote local employment and transition employment [4][10]. - The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July due to the influx of new labor from college graduates, but stabilized in the fourth quarter [4]. Income - Per capita disposable income in Beijing increased from 69,000 yuan at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 89,000 yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 [5]. - Wage income and net transfer income contributed significantly to this growth, with both categories showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, contributing 73.6% to the rise in disposable income [5]. - Rural residents' income growth outpaced urban residents, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, leading to a reduction in the urban-rural income ratio to 2.29 [5]. Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Beijing showed a low and stable trend, with a year-end increase of 1.0% after a period of decline in the first three quarters [6]. - Food prices decreased by 2.0%, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetables seeing a notable decline of 4.2% [6][7]. - Service prices remained stable overall, with some categories experiencing price increases, such as home services and education, which rose by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [8]. Future Outlook - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes improving the quality of life and increasing income, with a focus on stabilizing employment for key groups such as college graduates and rural laborers [9][10]. - Despite structural employment challenges, favorable economic conditions and supportive policies are expected to maintain a stable labor market and income growth [10]. - Price stability is anticipated, with measures in place to ensure food supply and manage service prices during peak demand periods [10].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple economic data from the US exceeded expectations last week, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, industrial production month-on-month, initial and continuing unemployment claims. Inflation data was generally in line with expectations, including CPI and PPI [2][4]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - In the US, several data points exceeded expectations, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production month-on-month. Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, was generally in line with expectations [4][14]. - In the Eurozone, industrial production month-on-month for November and the January Sentix investor confidence index exceeded expectations, while the final inflation values for France, Italy, and Germany in December met expectations [5][14]. - In Japan, the current account surplus exceeded expectations, and the PPI year-on-year was in line with expectations [5][14]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic data to watch includes the Japanese manufacturing PMI to be released on January 23 at 8:30 AM, the Bank of Japan's policy decision around noon to afternoon, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 5:00 PM, and the S&P US manufacturing PMI at 10:45 PM on January 23 [6][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.45% for the week ending January 10, compared to 2.08% the previous week [7][18]. - The German economic activity index showed a downward trend, with the WAI index at 0.03% for the week ending January 11, compared to -0.01% the previous week [8][18]. Group 4: Demand - In consumption, the US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate declined, with a reading of 5.7% for the week ending January 9, down from 7.1% the previous week [9][21]. - In real estate, US mortgage rates have decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.06% on January 15, down from 6.16% the previous week. Mortgage applications rebounded, with the MBA market composite index at 348 for the week ending January 9, reflecting a 28.5% increase week-on-week [9][24]. Group 5: Employment - Initial and continuing unemployment claims in the US decreased, with initial claims falling to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, down from 208,000 the previous week, and continuing claims dropping from 1.914 million to 1.884 million [10][28]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the INDEED job vacancy index averaging 105.34 as of January 9, slightly below the December average of 105.55 [11][29]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices showed a volatile recovery, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 0.2% week-on-week as of January 16, following a 1.2% increase the previous week. US gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.67 per gallon for the week ending January 12, down 0.6% week-on-week [12][31]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - US financial conditions have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index at 0.848 as of January 16, compared to 0.863 the previous week. In contrast, Eurozone financial conditions have tightened, with the index at 1.671 [38]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -15.4 pips, improving from -17 pips the previous week [40]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds has narrowed, with the J.P. Morgan global BB&B rated dollar corporate bond spread at 243 basis points as of January 16, down from 247.8 basis points the previous day [43]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of January 15, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US were approximately $319.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5% compared to $327.6 billion during the same period last year [50].

宏观经济周报 2026 年第四周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数连续第七周扩张，扩张幅度较前期有所回升，年 初经济运行延续正向态势，景气水平在结构调整中保持稳定扩张。从分项结构 看，消费景气指数显著上行并处于较高水平，节前需求释放与服务消费活跃共 同推动消费端表现走强，成为当周景气改善的核心来源。投资景气指数稳定运 行在扩张区间内，虽未出现明显跳升，但企业投资活动节奏平稳，项目推进连 续性较强，反映投资端对经济运行的稳定支撑。出口景气指数略低于荣枯线， 外需不确定性对整体景气仍构成边际拖累。生产景气指数小幅回落，但仍接近 荣枯线水平，工业活动在年初阶段出现阶段性整理。综合来看，当周景气扩张 的质量主要体现在需求端改善，消费与投资形成合力，外需与生产的阶段性扰 动未改变整体向好格局。随着节后生产节奏恢复及政策预期逐步落地，经济运 行有望保持平稳向上的发展态势。 2025 年中国进出口 45.47 万亿元，增长 3.8%。其中，出口 26.99 万亿元，增长 6.1%；进口 18.48 万亿元，增长 0.5%。具体来看，一是规模稳中有进、韧性凸 显。在外部环境复杂严峻的背景下，2025 年中国外 ...

首先，美联储最近一次降息是在2025年12月，下调了25个基点。整个2025年，美联储累计降息三次，每 次均为25个基点，目前基准利率区间已降至3.5%至3.75%。 不过，此次降息与以往明显不同，存在极大分歧。在9位投票成员中，有3位投了反对票，反对比例达到 三分之一。 这种情况在过去三十多年里从未出现过，足以说明市场对美国当前经济状况及现有经济决策存在巨大争 议。 之所以会产生如此大的分歧，核心原因在于两方面考量：一是通胀，二是就业。 要知道，高利率政策有助于抑制通胀，而降息则可能导致通胀反弹。 尽管目前通胀水平已接近2%的目标，但未来仍可能出现小幅通胀走势。众多观点认为，这种通胀态势 或许会固化，进而推动整体消费指数持续上升。 再看就业情况，从近几个月的数据来看，就业市场呈现下滑趋势。 我是袁sir，我写了一本《我的EB5移民观》，还有一套《EB5专业课程视频合集》，带您深入了解 EB5。还有一个EB5交流群，免费的， 每天都会在群里分享EB5各行业的最新资讯。评论区留言，拉您 入群。 EB5移民 新鸿护航 在"保通胀"与"保就业"的两难选择中，美联储最终倾向于保障就业——通过降息激活市场活力，让民众 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of the US Treasury bond market, US macro - economic indicators, and major asset classes. It shows that the US Treasury bond yields fluctuated this week due to economic data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The US macro - economy shows mixed signals in different sectors, with some indicators improving while others still showing weakness. Major asset classes also have diverse performances across different regions and types [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 美债利率本周回顾 - This week (January 9 - January 16, 2026), US Treasury bond yields generally increased, with the curve rising. Except for the ultra - long - term bonds, interest rates rose significantly. In the first half of the week, yields declined due to economic data and moderate CPI. In the second half, housing sales, unemployment data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence pushed yields up again [1][11]. - After the Fed received a subpoena from Trump, Powell countered, and the Fed's tough attitude eased investors' panic. The market doesn't think Trump will substantially undermine the current Fed. Trump's "pressure" is more likely a warning for the next - term chairman. However, this move may have the opposite effect, and there are also divisions within the Republican Party [2][12]. - The 3 - year US Treasury bill auction was robust, with a bid - to - cover ratio higher than the previous value. The 10 - year and 30 - year auctions were relatively weak [17]. 3.2 美国宏观经济指标点评 - **景气指数**: In 2025, the US new home sales market showed signs of recovery, but there were regional disparities and inventory pressures. The existing home sales in December 2025 reached a three - year high. Retail sales in November 2025 rebounded, mainly driven by holiday consumption. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in January 2026 reached a new high since September last year, indicating a marginal improvement in regional manufacturing demand [3][23]. - **就业**: As of the week of January 10, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, reaching the second - lowest level in two years. However, the labor market shows a weak balance of "low lay - offs and low hiring", and the employment growth remains sluggish [24][25]. - **通胀**: In 2025, the US PPI and CPI showed different trends. The PPI was affected by energy prices and service - end price dynamics. The CPI showed a stage of stability in December 2025, with some categories' price increases slowing down and others accelerating [26]. 3.3 大类资产点评 - **债券**: German bond yields declined, while Japanese bond yields remained high due to market expectations of an interest - rate hike [4][28]. - **权益**: Asian stock markets generally strengthened, while European and American markets were under pressure [4][29]. - **大宗**: Metals and digital assets led the gains, while agricultural products and some industrial raw materials faced pressure [4][30]. - **外汇**: Asian currencies were generally under pressure, while the Russian ruble rose [4][32]. 3.4 市场跟踪 The report provides various charts to track the performance of global major economies' government bond interest rates, stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [33][44][51][56].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance on interest rate cuts despite President Trump's calls for faster easing, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and the labor market is resilient [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed a consensus on pausing rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating that guiding inflation back to the 2% target is a core task [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt reiterated opposition to further rate cuts, suggesting that a moderate cooling of the labor market could help mitigate inflation risks [1]. - Some previously dovish officials, such as San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, have shifted their positions to support maintaining current rates [1]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Recent macroeconomic data supports the Fed's cautious approach, with December unemployment slightly decreasing to 4.4% and initial jobless claims falling to 198,000, indicating a stable job market [2]. - Inflation indicators remain elevated, with key inflation data close to 3%, significantly above the 2% long-term target, leading the market to view an extended observation period as prudent [2]. - The market now perceives a low likelihood of rate cuts before June, with a noticeable slowdown in the expected pace of easing throughout the year [2]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The stabilization of interest rate expectations has led to a strong performance of the US dollar, which is now a primary driver in the forex market [2]. - The British pound is under pressure against the dollar, trading below 1.3400, as US employment data reinforces expectations for prolonged high rates [2]. - Despite the pound's downward pressure, its decline is somewhat limited due to positive GDP growth data from the UK, which weakens bets on a rapid shift to easing by the Bank of England [2]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a critical concern, with officials expressing support for Chair Powell and emphasizing that policy decisions should be based on data rather than political influence [3]. - The forex market has largely adjusted to the expectation of a pause in rate cuts, with the dollar's strength reflecting the inertia of stable rate expectations rather than the beginning of a new trend [3]. - In the absence of new policy signals or key data, major currency pairs are likely to continue fluctuating within established ranges, with market focus shifting to upcoming inflation data and Fed officials' statements for potential changes [3].

记者丨孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 作为美联储密切关注的更基础的通胀指标，剔除住房后的超级核心通胀2025年12月环比增长 约0.3%，较前值放缓，同比增长约2.7%，比2025年11月略有上升（1年前约为4%），均处于 疫情以来最低区域，而剔除住房后的整个核心CPI仅增长0.1%，说明通胀回归2%目标的"最后 一公里"虽然漫长，但总体趋势仍在延续。 美联储的决策依据不是CPI，而是美国商务部公布的PCE通胀数据。住房在CPI篮子中权重占 比33%，在核心CPI中占比近40%，但在PCE中仅占15%，PCE通胀数据通常低于CPI数据，预 计2025年12月仍将如此，考虑到上述住房因素，可能幅度更大。2025年和2024年年初通胀均 有所反弹和顽固，主要由于许多企业年初调整价格，再加天气因素，下一步1、2月份通胀数 据需继续关注。 美国通胀在高关税环境中相对温和再次挑战了经济学理论。经济学基本逻辑认为，提高关税 会增加进口商品价格，通常会带来一次性的通胀上行，实际却更为复杂。美国关税冲击会增 加美国经济不确定性，削弱企业投资意愿和消费者信心，造成需求下降，价格自然面临下行 如果说2025年11月因 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京1月15日电（记者 翟卓）2025年第四季度，除日本央行逆势加息外，全球主要央行宽松进程分化加剧，期间美联储等较大幅度降息，英国央行 等谨慎小幅降息、欧洲央行等则"按兵不动"，支持经济稳就业、通胀黏性以及正常化，成为影响各国货币政策走势的主要关键词。 步入2026年第一季度，受访人士预计，除传统指标外，各国的财政扩张程度以及央行货币政策独立性的潜在变化也值得关注，美联储或暂时放缓降息节奏， 新西兰联储或进一步降息，欧洲央行及日本、英国、瑞士等国央行或因不同原因而维持利率不变，新兴市场国家也将因为更大的增长和通胀差异而采取不同 策略。 日本央行逆势加息 美国及新西兰较大幅度降息 其余主要发达经济体央行中，为支持经济稳定就业，美联储及新西兰联储均选择连续开展两次降息，其中后者的累积降幅更是超过市场预期达到75个基点。 具体来看，在当地时间去年10月以及12月，受就业市场下行风险加剧等因素影响，美联储相继如期降息25个基点，为自2024年9月启动本轮宽松周期以来的 第五次、第六次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%至3.75%之间。 如在去年11月份，美国失业率达到4.6% ...

广发证券研报指出，12月CPI数据虽受此前政府停摆影响有所波动，但核心读数依然温和。本次数据公 布前，市场已预期前期政府停摆造成的技术性干扰以及年末效应会使部分分项出现波动，因此对于 服 装、娱乐商品、酒店住宿等分项的反弹，市场总体将其视为基数效应修复而非趋势性变化。在"通胀未 脱轨+就业未失速"的背景下，我们理解短期降息必要性延续低位。 ...