【学习进行时】习近平总书记常说，"国泰民安，民安才能国泰""家事国事天下事，让人民过上幸福生活是头等大事"。国庆之际，新华社《学习 进行时》推出三篇系列文章，重温总书记牵挂的民生事。今天播发第一篇。 党的十八大以来，无论走到哪里，民生始终是总书记心中最大的牵挂。就业是最大的民生，关乎百姓生计，关系发展大局。习近平总书记称它 为"永恒的课题"，要求各级党委和政府"把就业当作民生头等大事来抓"。 "不能糊弄上级部门，更不能糊弄学生" 2020年7月，习近平总书记在一汽集团研发总院实验室考察时，听说现场有几位是刚毕业的大学生，关切地询问他们是哪所学校毕业的？收入怎么 样？来这里工作满意吗？ 得知当年一汽集团共招聘了1100多名应届高校毕业生，习近平总书记十分高兴。 "就业数据要扎扎实实，反映真实情况。"习近平总书记严肃指出，"现在有些学校为了追求高就业率，弄虚作假，搞'拉郎配'，签了再说。这样不 行，不能糊弄上级部门，更不能糊弄学生。" 总书记对大家说，各级党委和政府十分关心，将其作为重大民生工作任务，积极创造条件确保高校毕业生就业。 解决好高校毕业生这一重点群体的就业问题，支持帮助青年学子迈好走向社会的第一步，总 ...

美联储副主席Philip Jefferson周二警告，美联储面临劳动力市场疲软和通胀压力上升的双重风险，使货 币政策前景变得复杂。鉴于白宫推出的政策调整范围极广，对经济前景的看法高度不确定，不过随着政 策敲定，部分不确定性将随之消减。我认为就业风险偏向下行，通胀风险偏向上行，因此，我们两方面 的职责都面临压力。预计就业和通胀压力最终都会缓解。今年失业率可能会略有上升，明年再回落。我 预计今年过后通胀下降趋势将恢复，通胀率未来几年将回归2%的目标。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Industry Impact - President Trump stated that the U.S. film industry is being "stolen" by other countries and announced a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. to address this issue [1] - Following Trump's announcement, stock prices for major companies like Netflix and Warner Bros. experienced declines [1] Group 2: Government Funding and Market Reactions - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown as funding is expected to run out by September 30, with significant disagreements between the two parties [3][4] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have minimal impact on the market, but delays in key economic data could negatively affect market sentiment [7] - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.15%, the S&P 500 by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq by 0.48% on the same day [8] Group 3: Stock Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia up by 2.07% and Apple down by 0.4% [10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached a historical high, with Micron Technology rising by 4.22% due to supply shortages in the DRAM and NAND flash markets [12] - Chinese concept stocks saw an overall increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.03% [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].

Employment and Social Security - The employment situation in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is generally stable, with a cumulative urban new employment of 59.21 million by the end of August this year, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years is 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established, including fiscal incentives, tax reductions, and financial support, to enhance employment priority policies [1] Social Insurance Reform - The number of participants in the national basic pension insurance reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with a cumulative balance of 9.81 trillion yuan, indicating a stable increase in fund support capacity [2] - The investment operation scale of the basic pension insurance fund is 2.6 trillion yuan, having doubled since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15% [2] Talent Development - The gradual implementation of a delayed retirement age policy is underway to transform demographic dividends into talent dividends during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Over the past five years, 92 million people have received subsidized vocational skills training, with 72 new occupations and 328 national occupational standards introduced [3] - The number of professional technical talents exceeds 80 million, and skilled workers total over 220 million, with over 72 million high-skilled talents [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised questions about the apparent contradictions in his remarks regarding interest rates, stock market valuations, and inflation control [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Valuation - Powell indicated that stock market valuations are "quite high," with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio nearing 20 times, which is 20% above historical averages [5]. - The concern is that a sudden drop in the stock market could lead to a decrease in consumer wealth, thereby suppressing consumption and negatively impacting the economy [5][10]. - Powell's warning about high valuations is more about risk prevention rather than direct market intervention, as financial stability is also a responsibility of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell described the impact of tariffs on inflation as a "one-time fluctuation," but acknowledged that this effect could take 3-6 months to fully transmit through the supply chain [5][6]. - The emphasis on "temporary" inflation is intended to prevent market panic and to provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy decisions [7]. - Powell's dual focus on stabilizing prices and promoting employment reflects the complex economic environment, where raising interest rates to control inflation could harm job growth [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with GDP growth at only 1.5% in the first half of the year, leading to cautious hiring by companies [10][13]. - Powell's recent interest rate cut is seen as a preventive measure against economic "stalling," while also aiming to cool down the overheated stock market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is acknowledged, but political pressures do exist, influencing the context in which Powell operates [11][13].

美联储刚刚在9月会议上实现了今年首次降息25个基点。 刚刚结束的首次降息后，内部的分歧就已公开摆上桌面。 今年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC投票权的两名联储官员对激进降息感到担忧，而副主席鲍曼和理事米兰却持续发声，力推更快、更大幅度的降息措 施。 "7人反对再降息、10人支持降50基点" 的分裂态势，让后续政策走向充满变数。 当前这种内部分歧，究竟会如何影响美国经济的未来走向？ 分歧的核心本质上是对经济基本面的不同判断与政策风险的权衡， 主席施密德和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，他们俩的担心就像 "刚退烧就怕又着凉"。 前两年物价涨得多厉害，买菜、加油都贵了不少，美联储费了好大劲才把物价压下来一点。但现在还没完全稳住！ 美联储最看重的"核心物价指标"，现在还是比2%的目标高，甚至最近还有点往上走的苗头。 施密德怕现在要是急着多降息，大家手里的钱变多了，又开始疯狂花钱，物价很可能又涨回去，那么之前的努力就白费了。 古尔斯倒是更担心另一种"最坏情况"！那就是物价没降下来，经济反而先凉了，到时候又要扛物价，又要救经济，根本顾不过来。 比如现在已经有信号，8月新增工作只有2万多个，比年初少太多，要是为了救就业急着降息，万 ...

Core Points - The article highlights the achievement of over 59.21 million new urban jobs created since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, exceeding the target of 55 million jobs [1][2] - The government has implemented various measures to stabilize employment, including financial support and skill training programs, contributing to the creation of high-quality job opportunities [2][3] Employment Achievements - Cumulative new urban employment reached 59.21 million by the end of August 2025, surpassing the target of 55 million [1][2] - Over 4.7 trillion yuan has been spent on employment subsidies, with 1.389 trillion yuan allocated for job retention funds [2] - The average annual balance of entrepreneurial guarantee loans is 300 billion yuan, with annual employment subsidy expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] Skill Training Initiatives - More than 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers have received subsidized vocational skills training during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training program aims to train 30 million people over three years, with 2.14 million enterprise employees participating in subsidized training in the first half of 2025 [3] Social Security Fund Performance - The basic pension insurance fund has maintained a positive balance, with total reserves reaching 9.81 trillion yuan by the end of August [7] - The average annual investment return rate for the basic pension insurance fund is 5.15%, with continuous positive returns for eight consecutive years [7] - The number of participants in basic pension insurance has increased to 1.072 billion, with a participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [6][7]

Employment Situation - The employment situation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is generally stable, with a total of 59.21 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 55 million [2][3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has implemented various measures to support employment, including actions for advanced manufacturing, small and medium enterprises, and the elderly economy [2] Skills Training - Over 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers have received subsidized vocational skills training during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training program is planned to train 30 million people over three years, with specific actions for different groups [3] Social Security Funds - The three main social insurance funds (basic pension, unemployment, and work injury) have maintained a surplus, with a cumulative balance of 9.81 trillion yuan as of the end of August [7] - The basic pension insurance fund has achieved positive returns for eight consecutive years since its investment operation began in 2016, with an average annual return rate of 5.15% [7] Insurance Coverage - The number of people covered by basic pension insurance has reached 1.072 billion, with a participation rate exceeding 95% [6] - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance for new employment forms has expanded to 17 provinces, covering over 20 million new employment form workers [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in employment and social security during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China, with a focus on achieving high-quality development [1][2] - As of the end of August, urban new employment reached 59.21 million, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years was 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by the most substantial reforms in the social security sector, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and provincial-level coordination of unemployment and work injury insurance [2] - The number of participants in the basic pension insurance reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds' income and expenditure reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with cumulative fund reserves of 9.81 trillion yuan, indicating a stable support capacity for social security [2]