Monetary Policy - Interest rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for the next steps [2][11] - The current policy stance is at the high end of the neutral rate range, and it is difficult to indicate that the policy is significantly restrictive [11][28] Inflation - Inflation risks have somewhat dissipated, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 3% by December 2025 [2] - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE index rose by 4.3% [10] - The high inflation levels are largely attributed to tariff impacts, which are expected to peak and then decline by mid-2026 [3][31] Employment - Employment risks are stabilizing, with the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization at around 4.4% [10][11] - Job growth has been low, averaging only about 22,000 new jobs per month recently, reflecting a slowdown in labor supply growth [10][19] Tariffs - The majority of the tariff impacts have been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-induced inflation will dissipate by mid-2026 [3][31] - If the peak impact of tariffs is observed, it may signal a potential easing of monetary policy [3][31] AI and Technology - Short-term impacts of AI may lead to job losses, but the long-term effects remain uncertain [14][61] - The deployment of AI is being closely monitored for its potential effects on the labor market and overall economy [62] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for effective monetary policy, and there is a strong commitment to maintaining this independence [52][51] - The legal case involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is considered potentially one of the most significant in the Fed's history [10][52] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is expected to have a solid foundation entering 2026, with consumer spending showing resilience and business investment continuing to grow [8][57] - Recent government shutdowns may have temporarily affected economic activity, but these impacts are expected to reverse as the government resumes operations [9]

All right, folks. Let's bring in Qi Research CEO, chief strategist Daniel D. Martino Booth.All right, let's just talk about what we know so far. Uh, two big bombshells, the denters also shifting from jobs back to being concerned about inflation. >> Yeah, I don't think I understand that.I mean, if you're if you're watching uh prices in real time, true inflation, tru, which we've spoken about many times, came in this morning at 1.15%. >> It's infall. It's in freef fall. >> It is and it has been in freef fall. ...

当地时间1月28日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.02%，纳指涨0.17%，标普500指数跌0.01%。 存储概念股走高，希捷科技涨超19%，西部数据涨超10%，闪迪涨超9%，美光科技涨超6%。 微软公司第二季度营收812.7亿美元，预估803.1亿美元；第二季度智能云业务营收329.1亿美元，预估 323.9亿美元。微软盘后一度跌超7%。 特斯拉第四季度每股收益0.24美元，上年同期0.66美元；第四季度调整后每股收益0.50美元，上年同期 0.73美元，预估0.45美元；第四季度营收249.0亿美元，同比减少3.1%，预估251.1亿美元；第四季度经 营利润14.1亿美元，同比减少11%，预估13.2亿美元；第四季度自由现金流14.2亿美元，同比减少30%， 预估15.9亿美元；第四季度毛利率20.1％，预估17.1％。特斯拉盘后一度涨超4%。 META第四季度营收598.9亿美元，同比增长24%，预估584.2亿美元；第四季度广告收入581.4亿美元， 同比增长24%，预估567.9亿美元；第四季度每股收益8.88美元，上年同期8.02美元；第四季度经营利润 247.5亿美元，同比增长5.9%。M ...

Let's go to Washington DC with Edward Lawrence with the official decision. >> Well, the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. There were two dissenters in this.Steven Myron, board of governor as well as board of governor Christopher Waller both desented in this. Myron has dissented at every meeting that he has attended. His term ends on Saturday.Now, Governor Waller uh he is still in the running as one of the last four finalists for the Federal Reserve chairman. Uh now in the statement the Federal Reserve ...

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the upcoming meeting [1] - Market predictions indicate a 2.8% probability of a rate cut in January, with a 97.2% chance of maintaining the current rate, aligning with recent statements from key Fed officials [1] - The wording of the policy statement is crucial, with potential adjustments signaling the Fed's future intentions regarding rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show the December 2025 CPI at a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, but still above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Employment data shows a significant slowdown in non-farm job growth, yet the unemployment rate remains stable, indicating no clear signals for a rate cut [2] - Internal voting dynamics and personnel changes within the Fed may influence the decision-making process, with some members advocating for quicker rate cuts [2][3] Group 3 - Political factors are impacting the meeting, with increased intervention from the Trump administration, including a criminal investigation into Powell and potential nominations for the next Fed chair [3] - The market has already priced in expectations for the meeting, with the S&P 500 index at historical high valuations, necessitating supportive monetary policy signals [3] - Overall, the meeting is likely to adopt a "pause" stance, balancing inflation control with economic growth needs, though uncertainties remain regarding political influences and data dependencies [3]

人力资源和社会保障部1月27日举行例行新闻发布会，进一步披露了2026年在高校毕业生群体就业、创 业带动就业、就业权益保障等方面的具体部署。人社部还透露，将出台应对人工智能影响促就业文件。 专项文件的出台有望通过主动的政策引导，最大限度地挖掘人工智能创造就业的正面效应，让技术进步 的红利更多转化为就业提质扩容的动力，实现技术发展与就业稳定的良性互动。 越来越多"新赛道"被认证 数据显示，2025年，人社部发布无人机群飞行规划员等17个新职业，生成式人工智能系统测试员等42个 新工种；颁布73个国家职业标准；全面推行工学一体化技能人才培养模式，累计1000所院校参加，建设 101个专业，培训教师3.2万余人次；深入推进产教融合校企合作，累计建设100个技工教育联盟(集团)。 与前两年相比，2025年的新工种明显增加，是近年来数量最多的一年。对此，人社部职业能力建设司相 关负责人在接受媒体采访时回应称，这说明前些年认证的新职业比较准确，呈现了良好发展的趋势。同 时随着新技术得到更广泛深入地应用，原有职业的内涵更加丰富，职业之下的分工更加细化。例如， 在"生成式人工智能系统应用员"职业下增设"生成式人工智能系统测试 ...

王晓萍在署名文章中指出，要健全统计监测体系，加强重点地区、重点行业、重点企业、重点群体就业 失业监测。完善规模性失业风险防范化解机制，强化政策储备和应急处置。统筹用好各类资金基金，提 升促就业防失业质效。 南都记者关注到，2026年1月21日，在国新办举行的发布会上，工信部副部长张云明也谈到了AI引发的 就业担忧问题。张云明表示，技术进步往往会伴随就业结构的重构、就业岗位的迭代；但重构不等于消 失，迭代不等于替代，要用发展的眼光来看待发展中的问题。 他认为，历次重大技术变革都引发过对就业的担忧，但最终都通过产业转型实现了生产力的提升、就业 结构的优化和就业岗位的新增。面对这一挑战，应坚持应用牵引，充分发挥人工智能融合赋能作用，在 推动组织模式、工作方式、生产范式重构的同时，不断提升劳动者的人工智能素养，培养更多既懂人工 智能又懂制造业的复合型人才。 另据世界经济论坛《2025年未来就业报告》预测，2025年至2030年期间，因劳动力市场结构转型而带来 的就业创造与就业淘汰总量将达到当前总就业岗位的22%；其中被替代的工作岗位数量将达9200万个， 但也预计创造1.7亿个新岗位，最终实现约7800万个的净就业增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's urban employment situation is expected to remain stable in 2025, with an anticipated addition of 12.67 million new jobs and an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2% [1][2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MoHRSS) is increasing support for employment policies, focusing on key sectors, industries, and small and micro enterprises to effectively release job demand [1] - The reduction in unemployment insurance rates is projected to relieve enterprises of 187.2 billion yuan, while 33.6 billion yuan will be allocated for job retention funds [1] Group 2 - The MoHRSS plans to implement actions to stabilize and expand job opportunities, introduce employment support measures for key industries, and address the impact of artificial intelligence on employment [2] - There will be a focus on supporting key groups in employment, including issuing documents for youth employment and establishing a regular mechanism to prevent poverty and promote employment [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury market remained stable this week, continuing the high - level slight fluctuation pattern. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. - The US economy accelerated expansion in Q3, but there are risks of weakening growth momentum driven by consumption due to high inflation [24]. - The US labor market has strong resilience, and inflation pressure remains sticky [25][26]. - Different asset classes showed different trends this week, with some rising and some falling [11][28][29][30][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Yield Review This Week 1.1 US Treasuries Continue High - Level Slight Fluctuation Pattern - Yield changes of US Treasuries from January 16th to 23rd, 2026: 1 - month (+3bp, 3.78%), 1 - year (-2bp, 3.53%), 2 - year (+1bp, 3.60%), 5 - year (+2bp, 3.84%), 10 - year (0bp, 4.24%), 30 - year (-1bp, 4.82%). The US Treasury market was stable despite geopolitical disturbances in the equity market. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. 1.2 US Treasury Auctions This Week - The auction of 20 - year US notes on January 21st was weak. The auction size was $13 billion, the winning yield was 4.846%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.86 times (higher than the previous value), and the tail spread was - 1.025 (lower than the previous value). Indirects were allocated 64.7%, Directs 29.1%, and Primary 6.2% [20]. 2. Review of US Macroeconomic Indicators - **Business Index**: In January 2026, the preliminary data of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly up from 51.8 in December, indicating a slow - down in the improvement momentum. The preliminary data of the US S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, the same as the previous month but slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating a slow - down in the growth momentum. The US Q3 GDP (annualized quarterly - on - quarterly) reached 4.4%, higher than the forecast and the previous value, achieving the fastest growth in two years [4][24]. - **Inflation**: In November 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth slightly up from 2.7% in October, in line with market expectations, showing sticky inflation pressure [5][25][26]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US after seasonal adjustment increased by 1,000 to 200,000, higher than the previous value but better than the market expectation, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][25]. 3. Review of Major Asset Classes - **Bonds**: German bond yields rose overall, and Japanese bond yields remained at a high level. The rise in German bond yields was due to the market's reaction to the marginal tightening of ECB policy and the revision of inflation/growth expectations. The significant increase in Japanese bond yields was due to concerns about large - scale bond supply and bond market liquidity [28]. - **Equities**: Asian markets performed strongly, while European and Indian markets were under pressure. The top three gainers were the Korean Composite Index, the Russian MOEX, and the A - share Shanghai Composite Index. The top three losers were the Indian Sensex30, the German DAX, and the French CAC40 [29]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and crude oil rose due to safe - haven and geopolitical factors, while Bitcoin, live pigs, and coking coal declined. The top three gainers were London silver, London gold, and Brent crude oil. The top three losers were Bitcoin, the live pig index, and the coking coal index [30][31]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and Asian currencies were under pressure overall. The top three gainers were the Russian ruble, the Swiss franc, and the euro. The only two decliners among major global foreign exchanges were the Indian rupee and the Hong Kong dollar [32]. 4. Market Tracking - The report provides various charts to show the changes in bond yields, stock indices, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [34][44][49][54].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's economic performance in 2025 shows stable development in employment and income, with a focus on high-quality employment and income growth driven by various policies and initiatives [3][5][10]. Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Beijing remained stable at an annual average of 4.1%, consistent with the previous year, with monthly fluctuations between 4.0% and 4.3% [4]. - Employment initiatives targeted at youth, particularly college graduates, and support for disadvantaged groups have been emphasized to promote local employment and transition employment [4][10]. - The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July due to the influx of new labor from college graduates, but stabilized in the fourth quarter [4]. Income - Per capita disposable income in Beijing increased from 69,000 yuan at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 89,000 yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 [5]. - Wage income and net transfer income contributed significantly to this growth, with both categories showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, contributing 73.6% to the rise in disposable income [5]. - Rural residents' income growth outpaced urban residents, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, leading to a reduction in the urban-rural income ratio to 2.29 [5]. Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Beijing showed a low and stable trend, with a year-end increase of 1.0% after a period of decline in the first three quarters [6]. - Food prices decreased by 2.0%, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetables seeing a notable decline of 4.2% [6][7]. - Service prices remained stable overall, with some categories experiencing price increases, such as home services and education, which rose by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [8]. Future Outlook - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes improving the quality of life and increasing income, with a focus on stabilizing employment for key groups such as college graduates and rural laborers [9][10]. - Despite structural employment challenges, favorable economic conditions and supportive policies are expected to maintain a stable labor market and income growth [10]. - Price stability is anticipated, with measures in place to ensure food supply and manage service prices during peak demand periods [10].