Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical sector is experiencing a pullback after a period of continuous gains, with significant capital inflow into the chemical ETF, which has seen net subscriptions of 1.608 billion shares over the past 12 days [1] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which is composed of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of major and liquid listed companies in related sub-industries [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 43.54% of the index, with notable companies including Wanhua Chemical, Yilong Co., and Juhua Co. [2] Group 2 - The chemical ETF has a current price of 0.68 yuan, indicating its market performance amidst the sector's fluctuations [1] - The market is anticipating a potential ABC wave correction in the near future, with a projected timeframe of approximately 2.5 to 3 days for this adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown unexpected strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index quickly rebounding after a brief adjustment at the 3700-point level, indicating a strong upward momentum in the current market phase [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has undergone two significant trend changes, with the first occurring after breaking the key resistance at 3400 points, which opened up upward potential and set a target of 3650 points [3]. - After reaching 3630 points, the index adjusted to 3550 points before resuming its upward trend, breaking through 3650 points and continuing to rise [6]. - The second trend change occurred after surpassing the 3700-point mark, with the index experiencing a brief consolidation before accelerating again [6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current market movement is characterized as being in the third wave of the Elliott Wave Theory, which is typically the strongest phase of a market cycle [10]. - The index is approaching the upper resistance level of the upward channel, with a critical resistance point identified at the 4000-point level, which aligns with historical highs [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is caution advised regarding potential larger adjustments following rapid upward movements, especially after the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September [8]. - The market's strong performance is attributed to technical factors rather than fundamental ones, suggesting a focus on trading strategies and timing for investors [12].

- The report mentions the "Four-Wheel Drive Model" as a quantitative model used for analyzing trading opportunities across various sectors[17] - The model identifies potential trading signals based on sector-specific metrics and ETF benchmarks, such as the CSI 931409 (China Securities Shanghai-Shenzhen Innovative Medicine Index) and CSI 931071 (China Securities Artificial Intelligence Index)[17] - The model highlights short-term rebound opportunities in sectors like banking, innovative medicine, and artificial intelligence, based on technical indicators such as low-level stabilization signals and moving average alignments[17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the critical support level of 3371 that has been breached, and the implications of upcoming CPI data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The breach of the 3371 support level indicates a potential shift in market sentiment towards gold, with increased volatility expected [1] - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is driving a "buy the rumor" market behavior, suggesting that traders are positioning themselves ahead of potential price movements [1] - The slowdown in central bank gold purchases is leading to a change in pricing power within the gold market, which may affect future price trends [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis, particularly wave theory, to predict potential risks of further price breakdowns in the gold market [1] - The depth of the current pullback and the strength of any subsequent breakouts are expected to increase, indicating a more volatile trading environment [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model **Construction Idea**: The model aims to overcome the limitations of traditional Fourier analysis by introducing floating frequencies, which adapt to real-world market dynamics such as macroeconomic changes and capital structure shifts[64][65][66] **Construction Process**: 1. **Filtering**: Use Butterworth filter to remove high-frequency noise and retain trend data. The filter is applied to the logarithmic weekly closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, with cutoff frequency set at 0.1 and sampling frequency at 1.0[65][67] 2. **Frequency and Amplitude Selection**: Perform discrete fast Fourier transform on filtered data to extract amplitude and phase information. Key frequencies are identified based on amplitude peaks, e.g., 94.1 weeks, 80.5 weeks, and 62.6 weeks[75][78] 3. **Waveform Reconstruction**: Combine selected frequencies and amplitudes to reconstruct the market trend curve. The reconstructed curve includes direct current components and sinusoidal terms with specific frequencies and initial phases[68][78] **Evaluation**: The floating frequency approach improves prediction accuracy by preserving real-world frequency characteristics and reducing extrapolation errors[64][65][66] - **Model Name**: Dual Optimization Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model **Construction Idea**: Enhance the floating frequency Fourier transform by optimizing both amplitude and frequency to better fit market trends and improve prediction accuracy[85][86][87] **Construction Process**: 1. **Inner Optimization**: Use non-linear least squares to optimize amplitude values (sin and cos terms) for given initial frequency values. Frequencies are combined with the top two amplitudes from Fourier transform results to form a fitting curve[87][88] 2. **Outer Optimization**: Apply particle swarm optimization to determine the best floating frequencies (e.g., 39.02 weeks, 19.17 weeks, and 8.13 weeks). Training data spans 10 years (2014-2024), and the model is validated using 2024-2025 data[87][88][100] **Evaluation**: The dual optimization method significantly improves trend accuracy compared to simple floating frequency models, especially in capturing major market movements[85][86][100] Model Backtesting Results - **Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model**: - Key frequencies: 94.1 weeks, 80.5 weeks, 62.6 weeks[78][80][81] - Observed discrepancies in certain periods, e.g., 2014-2015 and 2017-2019, indicating limitations in amplitude selection methods[81] - **Dual Optimization Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model**: - Optimized frequencies: 39.02 weeks, 19.17 weeks, 8.13 weeks[100] - Improved accuracy in major trend predictions, e.g., capturing relative highs in September 2021[100] - Future predictions: Long-term upward trend from 2024 to 2027, with key oscillations in August 2025 and August 2026[102][103] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Harmonic Sine Wave Factor **Construction Idea**: Simulate price movements using harmonic sine waves to replicate Elliott Wave patterns[39][42] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $y(n) = 4*sin(0.00125n)+2*sin(0.01n)+1*sin(0.04n)+0.5*sin(0.16n)$ - Variables: $n$ represents time, $y(n)$ represents price index - Frequency structure: Base frequency 0.00125, harmonic frequencies follow $2^k$ relationship (k=-3,0,2,4) - Amplitude decay: Coefficients follow $2^{-m}$ rule (m=-1,0,1,2)[39][42] **Evaluation**: Successfully replicates 5-3 wave patterns described in Elliott Wave theory, providing a mathematical basis for wave analysis[39][42] - **Factor Name**: Pletcher Fibonacci Wave Factor **Construction Idea**: Introduce quasi-periodic characteristics by incorporating non-harmonic frequencies into wave simulation[50][51] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $y(n) = 4*sin(0.00125n)+sin(0.01n)+1/2*sin(0.04n)+1/4*sin(0.17n)+1/8*sin(0.72n)+1/16*sin(0.305n)$ - Frequency relationships: Some frequencies maintain harmonic relationships (e.g., 0.00125, 0.01, 0.04), while others exhibit non-harmonic relationships (e.g., 0.17, 0.72, 0.305)[50][51] **Evaluation**: Captures floating frequency characteristics and quasi-periodic behavior, aligning with real-world market dynamics[50][51] Factor Backtesting Results - **Harmonic Sine Wave Factor**: - Successfully replicates Elliott Wave patterns, including 5-3 wave structures[39][42] - **Pletcher Fibonacci Wave Factor**: - Demonstrates quasi-periodic behavior, reflecting floating frequency characteristics in market data[50][51]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a strong dollar and progress in US-EU trade negotiations impacting demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in gold prices [2] - Central bank buying provided support for gold, while hedge funds increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level since April, with net long positions rising by 19% to 170,868 contracts [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration has contributed to a 27% increase in gold prices this year [2] Group 2: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The European Commission indicated that a trade agreement with the US is imminent, although EU member states have approved counter-tariffs on US goods in case negotiations fail [3] - President Trump stated that he would meet with the EU on Sunday, estimating a 50% chance of reaching an agreement, which faces about 20 "sticking points" [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Market expectations suggest that stable labor market data will support the Federal Reserve in maintaining interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% in the upcoming meeting [4] - President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve for significant rate cuts during a surprise visit, emphasizing that the US should have the lowest interest rates [4] - Former Fed officials expressed support for a rate cut, while some analysts viewed Trump's visit as a political maneuver to increase pressure on the Fed [4] Group 4: Geopolitical Situations - In the Israel-Palestine conflict, Hamas officials reported positive progress in negotiations for a ceasefire, indicating readiness to finalize an agreement [5] - Turkey's foreign minister expressed optimism about coordinating a summit between Russia and Ukraine, suggesting a potential transitional resolution to the conflict [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's decision, non-farm payroll data, and trade talks between China and the US, are expected to influence market trends in the second half of the year [6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is likely entering a downward phase, with a focus on the triangular consolidation pattern and potential breakout directions [7][11]

Group 1 - The overall performance of gold this week showed volatility, with a downward trend at the beginning of the week, a significant rise on Wednesday, and fluctuations leading to a small upward close on Friday [2][7] - Economic data indicated a robust foundation, with June retail sales growing by 0.6%, initial jobless claims for the week of July 12 at 221,000, and a slight acceleration in inflation with June CPI rising to 2.7% [3] - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with Trump indicating a potential easing of enforcement against Iran while Iranian-backed militia groups reportedly attacked oil fields in Iraq [4] Group 2 - Next week, the focus will be on central bank dynamics, particularly the Federal Reserve's response to economic data and internal policy disagreements regarding interest rate cuts [5] - Key economic data to watch includes manufacturing and services PMI for the Eurozone and the U.S., which will reflect the impact of trade uncertainties on the economy [5][6] - The technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a corrective phase, with the need to observe the internal structure of the current wave to determine future movements [10][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The week started with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, followed by a rebound on Wednesday and continued upward movement on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a weekly candlestick with a lower shadow [2] - The Trump administration has intensified trade policies, imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased manufacturing costs in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $100.4 billion in May 2024, contributing to uncertainty in trade policies that support gold prices [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% during the June meeting, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood for July is only 15% [3] - Various Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on potential rate cuts, with some supporting a July cut while others remain cautious [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Indicators - The upcoming focus will be on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a 3.1% year-over-year increase and a 3.4% rise in core CPI, which could influence the likelihood of a July rate cut [4] - Other important economic indicators include retail sales and the preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current market movement aligns with the expected wave structure, indicating that the second wave's adjustment is concluding, and a third wave structure is anticipated to begin [8] - The focus for the upcoming week will be on confirming the completion of the second wave's three-wave structure before entering the C-3 wave opportunity [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in light of declining interest rates and the need for diversified asset allocation to preserve and grow wealth in an uncertain economic environment [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation has significantly decreased, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [3]. - The interest rate for one-year deposits at major banks has dropped to 0.9%, resulting in minimal returns for savers [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on four main asset classes: A-shares, gold, domestic bonds, and U.S. bonds, each with distinct risk-return profiles [6]. - A-shares are seen as a representative of domestic equity assets, while gold serves as a recognized hedge against inflation. Domestic bonds are favored for their stability and credit quality, and U.S. bonds are crucial for currency risk hedging [6]. Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The biggest risk for A-shares this year has been the U.S.-China trade tensions, which caused significant market fluctuations, including a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on April 7 [8][10]. - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance, recent data indicates a recovery in manufacturing PMI and stable export performance, leading to a rebound in A-shares [9][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a bullish phase, but uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of this trend, heavily dependent on economic fundamentals [12]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The perception of gold has shifted, with recent price volatility reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical events and trade negotiations. Gold prices reached a peak increase of 30% this year, driven by trade tensions [12][14]. - Short-term outlook for gold is cautious, with potential price corrections anticipated due to changing market sentiments and economic indicators in the U.S. [16][17]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by lower returns compared to 2024, with ten-year government bond ETFs showing only a 0.81% increase in the first half of the year [20][23]. - The strategy for bond investments should focus on tactical trading rather than long-term holding, with specific yield thresholds suggested for buying and selling [24]. Group 6: U.S. Bond Market Concerns - The yield on U.S. ten-year bonds has risen above 4.6%, indicating a shift in perception where they are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens [26][27]. - Recent legislative developments regarding stablecoins may provide temporary relief, but they do not address the underlying structural issues facing the U.S. bond market [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a three-day upward trend driven by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar, but faced a pullback due to stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a slight gain [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 111,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant drop in gold prices on Thursday [2] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy, with a 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9, has supported gold as a safe-haven asset while increasing market volatility [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion. This rising sovereign debt diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and supports a long-term upward trend for gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and progress in Iran nuclear negotiations, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, putting some pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events to watch next week include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on July 8, the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes on July 9, and the weekly initial jobless claims data on July 10. These events may provide insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting gold prices [3] - July 9 marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, with ongoing negotiations with major economies like Japan and India progressing slowly. The market anticipates potential threats of increased tariffs to compel concessions from other countries, although an extension of the deadline is also likely [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend this week, closing with a bullish candlestick, aligning with the expectation of a near-term bottom and subsequent rebound [4] - The current market is in a corrective phase following a rise from a low of 3347 to a high of 3365, indicating a second wave adjustment within a larger upward structure. The focus will be on the progress of this correction, with anticipation for a subsequent third wave upward movement [5][7] - After the completion of the second wave rebound, attention will shift to potential opportunities in the third wave downward movement, which is a key focus for upcoming trading strategies [8]