Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the consumption during the May Day holiday continues to show a recovery trend, with stable growth in consumer spending across most provinces and cities, driven by trade-in programs and emotional value consumption [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The willingness to travel has increased, leading to diversified cultural and tourism consumption [1] - The implementation of the outbound tax refund policy has boosted the vitality of inbound tourism [1] Group 2: Hotel and Dining Sector - Hotel prices have stabilized and begun to recover, with demand being stimulated by consumption vouchers [1] - The vitality of the lower-tier markets is stronger, indicating a broader recovery in consumer spending [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - With the gradual rollout of policies aimed at boosting consumption, there is an optimistic outlook for the fundamental improvement of the consumer sector by 2025, along with a revaluation of leading companies [1]

Consumption Trends - The extended May Day holiday this year has led to a significant release of consumer spending, comparable to the long National Day holiday, with increased passenger volume and per capita spending[1] - Domestic travel during the May Day holiday averaged 5.2 days, an increase of approximately 15% year-on-year, indicating a rise in demand for in-depth and long-distance travel[2] - The entry of foreign tourists has been boosted by policies such as visa-free transit and "buy now, return later," with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% year-on-year during the holiday[2] Travel and Transportation Data - All modes of transportation (rail, road, water, and air) saw increased passenger volumes compared to 2024, with daily cross-regional movement comparable to peak travel periods like National Day and Spring Festival[2] - The number of international flights increased by 20.1% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, with significant growth in flights to Vietnam (62.9%) and Japan (58.5%)[3] Entertainment and Real Estate Insights - Movie box office revenue saw a decline, with total earnings dropping by 48.6% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday, and average ticket prices falling to 349.8 yuan per show, down from 561.6 yuan last year[3] - Real estate sales showed signs of recovery, with new home sales in 30 cities rebounding to levels above the previous year, while second-hand home sales continued to exhibit high year-on-year growth[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include incomplete data statistics, unexpected policy changes, and fluctuations in the domestic economic landscape that could impact future trends[3]

Macro Economic Overview - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with March CPI data indicating improvement, while manufacturing remains sluggish with a PPI decline of -2.5% [3] - Attention is on the upcoming April PMI data, which if above the threshold, could signal a positive outlook for industrial stocks [3] - The central bank is actively engaging in reverse repos, hinting at potential interest rate cuts, although caution is advised due to the Federal Reserve's stance [3] Market Sentiment - Recent trading volumes have decreased significantly, with the Shanghai market seeing daily transactions below 500 billion and Shenzhen around 300 billion [4] - Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD suggest a bearish trend, with a critical support level at 3200 points [4] Investment Opportunities - Three key sectors are highlighted for investment: - Technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and new energy, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance [4] - Consumer sector, featuring established brands like Moutai and emerging trends in prepared foods, with positive indicators from recent box office data [5] - Policy-driven opportunities, including state-owned enterprise reforms and increased freight volumes from the China-Europe Railway Express [5] Operational Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes maintaining a 50% position, gradually accumulating shares below 3200 points, and considering increasing positions if the market stabilizes above 3300 points [5]