本报记者 闫立良 "随着外部环境急剧变化，同时国内房地产市场尚未企稳、物价运行持续低迷，二季度货币政策优先目标将逐步过渡到稳 就业稳增长，宽松空间明显打开。"5月20日，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，预计年内 降准降息仍有空间，但力度及节奏将根据中美关税进展、二季度出口和经济表现等关键变量相机抉择。 促进价格水平合理回归 5月7日，央行出台包括降准降息、创设并加力实施系列结构性货币政策工具在内的一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 蔡伟认为，一季度出于前期增量政策效果仍在逐渐显现、外部环境尚不明朗以及优先稳定汇率波动风险和银行息差压力等 综合考量，央行对于货币政策的总量操作较为克制，保持"适度宽松"的政策取向不变。 在后续可能的降准降息空间释放上，蔡伟分析称，降准方面，央行将配合财政协同发力，并可能通过加大买断式逆回购等 进一步补充流动性。降息方面，央行将综合考量国内外经济形势、利率风险与金融市场波动等因素。 最近三期货币政策执行报告均强调"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。蔡伟 表示，这说明当前物价是央行的重要关注指标。 在央行5月9日发布的 ...

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：考虑到我们面临的物价稳定风险的平衡状况，季度降息的速度过快。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain caution in its interest rate actions, emphasizing the need for stability in the current economic environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Actions - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that interest rates can be kept at current levels to ensure price stability [1] - The ECB has already cut rates seven times, with economists and markets anticipating a further 25 basis point cut in June [1] - While several policymakers support this potential cut, Schnabel refrained from confirming any specific actions, stating that future developments remain uncertain [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The uncertainty stemming from the Trump trade war casts a shadow over the economic outlook [1] - Schnabel highlighted the significant differences in the short-term and medium-term impacts on inflation, noting that falling energy prices and global economic slowdown should suppress inflation in the short term [1] - However, she warned that the situation could reverse in the medium term [1] Group 3: Currency Confidence - The recent appreciation of the euro should be interpreted as a signal of confidence in the currency [1] - Schnabel urged Europe to seize the opportunity presented by this confidence in the euro [1]

被视为下一任美联储主席热门人选的前美联储理事凯文.沃什警告称，如果美联储无法防止因关税引发 的物价上涨演变为持续性通胀，那么责任应由央行承担，其信誉也将受到严重挑战。 沃什在斯坦福大学的一场活动上表示："如果中央银行声称外部因素导致物价水平上升，并由此驱动通 胀结果，那某种程度上是在承认自身失职。"他进一步指出："这其实是在说，美联储缺乏足够的公信力 去阻止通胀发生。" 随着特朗普推动新一轮关税政策，经济学家普遍预期关税将推高商品价格，并可能拖慢经济增长速度。 对此，美联储主席鲍威尔以及多位官员已多次表达担忧，认为关税带来的不确定性可能引发通胀和失业 的双重风险。 回顾近年来的通胀演变，美国通胀在2021年迅速攀升，当时正值新冠疫情冲击全球供应链，企业在需求 激增中难以应对，物价节节攀升。美联储当时曾判断通胀是"暂时性的"，这一判断后来被证明过于乐 观。随后在2022年和2023年，美联储大幅加息以遏制通胀。 目前美联储所偏好的通胀指标，核心个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)自2022年高点超过7%之后大幅回落， 但仍未回归其2%的长期目标。 政策制定者强调，他们的关键任务是引导和稳定公众的通胀预期，防止因关税造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of inflation expectations around the central bank's target is emphasized as a cornerstone of the Federal Reserve's work, particularly during periods of high uncertainty [1]. Group 1: Inflation Management - New York Fed President Williams highlights the importance of well-anchored inflation expectations, especially in uncertain times [1]. - The latest survey from the New York Fed indicates a sharp rise in U.S. consumers' medium-term inflation expectations as of April, alongside a more pessimistic view on the job market [1]. - Williams reiterates that maintaining price stability is a key responsibility of central banks, which is crucial for earning public trust [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Despite rising unemployment and increasing inflation risks, Federal Reserve officials decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, awaiting clearer data on the impact of large-scale tariff measures on the economy [2]. - Williams warns that policymakers must ensure that a one-time inflation spike caused by tariffs does not evolve into a more persistent inflation issue [3]. - The Trump administration is set to engage in new trade negotiations with China, which analysts hope could lead to a reduction in tariffs [3].

瑞士央行总裁表示，企业表主要担忧是地缘政治的不确定性、欧洲需求趋于疲软，以及过去两周瑞郎走 强。瑞士正面临关税的三重打击。我们的职责是稳定瑞士的物价，我们必须利用 利率和 汇率来确保这 点。 ...

我们总是说，如果有必要，我们会干预外汇市场。 我们的使命是稳定瑞士的物价。 瑞士央行行长Schlegel：瑞郎升值了很多。 ...

Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - The supply of essential goods in Anhui province is sufficient and prices remain stable ahead of the May Day holiday, with 577 "benefit vegetable basket" stores operational [1] - Grain and oil prices are generally stable, with retail prices for four types of rice and flour remaining at 2.49 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged from last week and last month [1] - Pork prices are under pressure, with retail prices for various cuts averaging 16.16 yuan, 12.24 yuan, and 14.95 yuan per 500 grams, showing a week-over-week decline of 1.1% and 0.89% for lean pork and back seat pork respectively [1] Group 2: Meat and Vegetable Price Movements - Beef, lamb, and chicken prices show slight fluctuations, with retail prices for beef, lamb, and chicken at 34.35 yuan, 31.51 yuan, and 11.22 yuan per 500 grams respectively, with chicken down 0.53% week-over-week [1] - Vegetable prices have been declining for four consecutive weeks, with an average price of 2.19 yuan per 500 grams, down 3.52% from last week and 5.6% from the same month last year [2] - Egg prices have slightly increased to 4.37 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.69% from last week and 0.46% from the same month last year [3] Group 3: Fish Price Trends - Freshwater fish prices are stable with slight increases, as retail prices for crucian carp and silver carp are 13.06 yuan and 5.46 yuan per 500 grams respectively, showing week-over-week increases of 0.31% and 1.3% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shandong Province has maintained stable market prices and sufficient supply of essential goods in 2023, with a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] - In the first quarter, the CPI in Shandong decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a low-level operation trend [1] - Food prices primarily decreased, with an overall decline of 2.2% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations post-Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - The prices of industrial consumer goods saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, driven by rising international precious metal prices [1] - Service prices experienced a modest increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with notable rises in household services and entertainment [2] - The economic environment in Shandong is expected to support stable price levels, with upcoming holidays likely to boost demand for goods and services [2]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（4月24日） 美元： 欧元： 1. 欧洲央行：预计今年工资增长将大幅放缓。 1. 英国利率掉期预计到2025年底降息84个基点，而此前的预期是90多个基点。 2. 英国宣布措施防止未来倾销定价不公平的进口产品，英国将重新审查低价值进口商品的关税。 3. 英国财政大臣里夫斯：英国不会急于美国展开贸易谈判，英国不会放松汽车、食品、网络安全标准以 争取达成与美国的贸易协议。 1. 中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净回笼275亿元。 2. 泰国政府考虑推出价值5000亿泰铢的经济刺激计划。 3. 阿根廷央行副行长：我们预计阿根廷比索将触及较低的区间。 4. 波兰央行官员Wnorowski：利率可能在五月份降低50个基点。 5. 野村证券：预计瑞士央行将再次采用负利率，并预计将在九月份达到终端利率为-0.25%的水平。 6. 市场减少了对欧洲央行降息的押注，预计到12月存款利率将降至1.65%左右，此前预期为1.55%。 英镑： 4. 路透调查：所有67位经济学家均预测英国央行将在5月8日将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%。预计到 2025年底，英国央行将每季度下调基准利率25个基点 ...