Core Insights - The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its economic growth forecast for the region to 2.4% for 2025, maintaining a 2.3% growth forecast for 2026, with increased trade with China being a significant factor [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - ECLAC's upward revision reflects an improvement in the external environment affecting the region's economy, with major trading partners performing better than previously expected [1] - For South America, the growth forecast for 2025 is now 2.9%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%, driven by increased trade with China and a rebound in prices of precious metals and other natural resources [1] - Central America and Mexico are expected to grow by 1.2%, slightly higher than before, mainly due to improved international trade conditions [1] - The Caribbean region (excluding Guyana) has a slightly raised growth forecast of 1.9%, benefiting from strong performance in the tourism sector [1] Recommendations for Regional Countries - ECLAC calls for regional countries to maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance productivity, promote export diversification, expand intra-regional trade, and encourage sustainable investment [2] - The importance of international cooperation and multilateralism is emphasized for consolidating economic recovery and mitigating geopolitical fragmentation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Italy has lowered its economic growth forecast for next year due to ongoing global trade tensions impacting exports, which puts pressure on the recovery prospects of the eurozone's third-largest economy [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Bank of Italy now predicts a GDP growth of only 0.6% for 2026, down from the previous forecast of 0.8% [1] - The central bank still expects a growth of 0.6% for this year, which is higher than the government's latest prediction of 0.5% [1] - For 2027, the growth rate is anticipated to be 0.7% [1] Current Economic Situation - Following a contraction in the previous quarter, the economy is expected to show "moderate growth" in the third quarter [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank has raised Saudi Arabia's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.2% due to increased oil production and strong non-oil activities [1] - The growth rate is expected to reach 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The World Bank has also adjusted its economic growth forecast for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, predicting a 3.5% growth rate for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The GCC region is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German economy is expected to experience a slight growth of 0.2% in 2025, following two years of economic contraction, with further growth projected at 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 [1] Economic Forecast - The German government has revised its growth expectations for the next two years, aligning with the joint assessment report released by major economic research institutions on September 25 [1] - The construction sector is projected to see a decline in investment by 2.3% this year, but is expected to rebound with growth rates of 2.0% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 [1] - Exports are anticipated to recover in the next two years, with expected growth rates of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank maintains its economic growth forecast for Colombia at 2.4% for 2025, attributing this to the primary drivers of growth being consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook - Global high interest rates, weak investment, and limited fiscal space continue to constrain economic recovery in Latin America [1] - Colombia's economic performance is expected to improve compared to 2024, supported by a rebound in private consumption and investment [1] - The pace of monetary easing is slowing due to the sustained high interest rates in developed economies [1] Inflation Trends - Since 2023, inflation in Colombia has been on a downward trend [1] - The World Bank projects that by the end of 2025 or in 2026, inflation in most Latin American countries will return to the central bank's target range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan for 2025, but has lowered the prediction for 2026 due to conflicts and oil production cuts [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The average GDP growth for the region in 2025 is projected to be 2.8%, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.6% [1] - Gulf countries are expected to benefit from accelerated exits from production cuts and expansion in non-oil sectors [1] Sectoral Improvements - Oil-importing countries are seeing improved prospects due to recovery in consumption, investment, agriculture, and tourism [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD maintains its GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook despite previous downward adjustments earlier this year [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD's forecast for South Korea's GDP growth in 2025 remains unchanged at 1%, which is higher than the South Korean government's and the Bank of Korea's expectations of 0.9% [1] - The OECD had previously lowered its growth expectations for South Korea in March and June of this year [1] - The OECD expects the recent recovery momentum in the South Korean economy to continue [1] Inflation Expectations - The OECD has raised its inflation forecast for South Korea for this year from 2.1% to 2.2% [1] - The inflation forecast for next year is projected to be 1.9% [1]

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank has revised down Mongolia's economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering the predictions by 0.9 to 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate of 5.7% [1] Economic Factors - An increase in livestock inventory and the Oyu Tolgoi underground mining project are expected to drive medium-term economic growth [1] - However, a decrease in coal exports and a reduction in government budget spending are identified as factors that will hinder growth [1]

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, is the first full shutdown since 2013, with no immediate signs of reopening [1][2] - The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration; a short shutdown may only delay income, while a prolonged one could alter economic activity and market expectations [2][3] - The White House predicts a weekly loss of $15 billion due to the shutdown, although this figure is considered exaggerated; the last shutdown in 2018 resulted in a GDP loss of $11 billion over five weeks [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics and Government Restructuring - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the White House to restructure government agencies and shift blame onto the Democratic Party [2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is expected to implement significant cuts, including reducing the federal workforce and pressuring Democratic-controlled states [2][3] - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is highlighted, with potential compromises on funding and tax credits being discussed [3] Group 3: Economic Performance of Spain - Spain's economy is growing at approximately 3%, outperforming other Eurozone countries, and has recently received an upgraded credit rating from S&P [4] - The service sector, particularly tourism and IT, has become a key driver of Spain's economic success, aided by EU funds for infrastructure development [4] - Spain's labor reforms have increased flexibility in employment contracts, leading to higher productivity and more full-time job opportunities [4] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth in Spain - Spain's immigration policy has attracted a significant number of Spanish-speaking immigrants, contributing to economic growth and addressing labor shortages [5] - The influx of 600,000 new immigrants annually has expanded the tax base and improved government finances, although political stability remains a concern [5] - Spain faces challenges such as high unemployment rates and regulatory burdens that could hinder long-term growth [5] Group 5: Market Focus and Economic Indicators - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. consumer confidence indicators [6] - The impact of the government shutdown on U.S. statistical data is noted, with implications for economic analysis and forecasting [6]

亚行专家认为，得益于工业和建筑业的强劲增长（增幅达8.3%，高于2024年同期的7.5%），以及 外商直接投资（FDI）的持续稳定流入（实际到位资金154亿美元，创5年来同期新高），2025年上半年 越南经济取得增长7.5%的积极成果。然而美国对越南商品征收20%的关税以及对过境商品征收40%关 税，短期内仍可能影响越南的经济增长。 越南《越南经济》9月30日报道，亚洲开发银行（ADB）当日发布《2025年9月亚洲发展展望报 告》，将越南2025年经济增长预期上调至6.7%，较4月份预测上调0.1个百分点，并将2026年经济增长预 期下调至6.0%（4月份为6.5%）。 （原标题：亚行将2025年越南经济增长预期上调至6.7%） ...