中美贸易紧张局势的缓和，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场此前的诸多担忧。消息一经公布，华尔街大行 与利率市场交易员迅速调整策略，大幅降低对美联储年内降息的押注。从利率互换合约的数据变化中， 我们能清晰看到这一趋势：美联储今年降息幅度预计从之前市场押注的 75 个基点，显著下降至约 55 个 基点；而交易员对首次降息时间的预期，也从原本较为接近的时间点，大幅延后至 9 月份，年内降息次 数更是被压缩到仅有两次。 这一系列预期的调整，在美债市场引发了强烈震动。对货币政策极度敏感的两年期美债收益率，周一一 度最高攀升 12 个基点，重新突破 4% 大关。收益率的上升与降息确定性的下降，恰似一对 "孪生兄 弟"，反映出美债市场看涨押注的进一步减弱。究其原因，此次关税下调被市场视为对经济的有力支 持。随着经济前景的预期改善，资金开始流向风险资产领域，本周初美股等风险资产的大幅反弹，更是 直接削弱了美债的吸引力，使得美债市场的热度明显降温。 回顾过去几周，市场对美联储降息的预期本就处于不断变化之中。自美联储上周发表 5 月议息会议声 明，主席鲍威尔主张采取观望态度，以评估关税调整对通胀和经济增长的影响后，市场的降息押注便开 启 ...

Group 1 - The silver T+D market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading above 8255, opening at 8115, and reaching a high of 8255 and a low of 8115, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - The US Treasury market is under cautious sentiment due to uncertainty in tariff policies, which is pushing long-term Treasury yields higher as the market awaits specific developments in US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The upcoming auctions of 10-year (42 billion) and 30-year (25 billion) Treasury bonds are seen as significant tests for market capacity, with historical data indicating that long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2][3] Group 2 - The expansionary fiscal policy is leading to rising deficits and increasing bond supply, while trade tensions may weaken foreign investors' willingness to purchase US debt [3] - The current pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is not directly influencing long-term bond yields, which are instead being driven by global trade dynamics and supply-demand relationships [2] - The resistance level for silver T+D is identified in the range of 8360-8450, while the support level is noted between 8140-8210 [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential shift of foreign investors away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to increasing uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies and the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts a narrowing growth gap between the U.S. and other developed economies, with U.S. growth rates expected to decline to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is projected to experience a growth acceleration in 2026 [1][2] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the dollar has changed significantly, resembling emerging market patterns where stock market declines coincide with dollar weakness [1] Group 1 - Foreign investors may reduce their allocation to U.S. assets and increase currency hedging ratios, putting further pressure on the dollar [2] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at approximately $27 trillion, remains unmatched in depth and liquidity compared to potential alternatives like German or Japanese government bonds [3] - Despite rising concerns boosting the relative attractiveness of the euro and yen, the lack of comparable scale and liquidity in alternative markets makes it difficult for foreign investors to exit the U.S. Treasury market en masse [3]

每经记者 岳楚鹏 每经编辑 高涵 ①【三大期指齐跌，科技股普跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.92%、标普500指数期货跌1.07%、纳指期货 跌1.18%，苹果下跌1.51%，英伟达下跌2.25%。 ⑥【分析人士：特朗普若解雇鲍威尔或冲击美债】据央视财经报道，美国总统特朗普的盟友以及美联储 官员近日都公开发声，对近期特朗普施压美联储主席鲍威尔的行为提出了批评。美国路易斯安那州、共 和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪接受美国全国广播公司NBC采访时，更是直言认为总统无权解雇美联储主席。 有分析人士警告，如果特朗普真的采取解雇鲍威尔的激进措施，那么美债市场就可能会受到冲击。 ⑦【推迟在美国投产平价车型Model Y，特斯拉跌超3%】近日，据外媒援引消息人士报道，特斯拉推迟 了在美国制造平价版Model Y的计划。特斯拉曾承诺在今年上半年推出这一车型，以提振低迷的销量。 知情人士称，这款低价版Model Y内部代号为E41，全球首批量产原计划在美国启动，但现在预计将比 特斯拉公开承诺的时间晚至少几个月，可能推迟到今年第三季度或明年初。截至发稿，特斯拉下跌 3.82%。 ⑧【大摩重申黑石集团增持评级】近日，摩根士丹利最新研报重申对黑 ...

海外策略：关税主导预期，降息高度谨慎 美债方面，受益于关税政策的暂缓、贝森特表明会在必要时支持美债市场，美债市场的悲观情绪有所缓和，美 债利率高位回落。从基本面的角度来看，我们认为美国经济滞胀风险正在升高，美联储受制于通胀担忧，短期 内降息概率不高，美债利率走势或为宽幅震荡，维持高配中短久期美债的观点不变。 美元方面，短期看，美元有可能进一步向下。中期看，美元基本面的优势正在明显下降。一方面德国财政立场 由保守转为扩张令"美强欧弱"叙事遭遇挑战。另一方面，市场对关税政策的担忧更多集中在了"衰退"层面，美 国经济下行风险增大，对美元不利。 人民币方面，汇率依然面临中美利差倒挂、关税等客观压力。但是自美国推出对等关税以来，CNY中间价仅 缓慢抬升，稳汇率信号较强，叠加美元下行，未来人民币走势预计将以双向波动为主。 黄金方面，中性偏多。第一，美国滞胀风险上升。第二，关税政策不确定性升高，有利于强化央行购金逻辑。 第三，市场避险情绪仍然偏强。 关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The current market has basically priced in the negative impact of overseas tariff policies and the positive impact of domestic policies, and the impact of tariff policies on the A-share market has diminished. With a relatively quiet news background, the trading volume of the two markets has continued to shrink, approaching 1 trillion yuan. Today, the large-cap stock index was relatively resilient, and the dividend index led the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The historical quantiles of the volume-weighted average basis of IF, IC, and IM were all below 5%, at historical lows. The market is waiting for a new round of drivers, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [6] Group 3: Market Review - Today, the stock index showed mixed performance, with the large-cap index closing higher and the small and medium-cap index closing lower. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.028 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM declined with decreasing volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - US Treasury bonds were sold off, and the US dollar index declined, which was interpreted by the market as a significant decline in global investors' confidence in US dollar assets. US Treasury Secretary Bezant tried to downplay the impact of the recent heavy selling of US Treasury bonds, refuting the market speculation that foreign investment institutions had significantly sold off US Treasury bonds, and stating that the US Treasury Department has a "policy toolbox" to deal with abnormal turbulence and market imbalances in the Treasury bond market, including increasing the Treasury Department's repurchase of Treasury bond assets [5] - Major cities have successively released their 2025 land supply plans or annual housing development plans. Under the policy orientation of strictly controlling new supply, the supply of residential land in most cities has significantly decreased this year [5] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 6: Futures Index Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -0.12%, 0.08%, -0.09%, and -0.22% respectively [7] - The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 93,397, 45,782, 92,479, and 225,722 respectively [7] - The trading volume changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.0759, -0.2514, 0.6933, and -0.8173 respectively [7] - The open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 266,683, 93,043, 213,688, and 332,317 respectively [7] - The open interest changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 3,409, -456, 2,548, and -1,397 respectively [7] Group 7: Spot Market Observation - The percentage change of the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.15% [8] - The percentage change of the Shenzhen Component Index was -0.27% [8] - The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.86 [8] - The trading volume of the two markets was 107.7194 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.028 billion yuan compared to the previous period [8]

新华财经上海4月14日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，4月11日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.35，按周跌 1.42，创2023年9月以来低位；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报103.32，按周跌1.54，创2024年1月以来低位；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.06，按周跌 1.49，创2020年8月以来低位。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.35 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 103.32 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 91.06 | 上周（4月7日至11日），市场对美国资产的信心因关税政策反复持续受挫，美国金融市场出现了股、债、汇三杀的局面，美元指数跌穿100整数关口，全周 累计跌幅达到3.06%，收报99.769，为2022年以来低位。 主要货币对美元多数上涨，瑞郎和日元上周受益于其避险属性涨幅居前，瑞郎上周涨至2015年以来高点周内大幅收涨5.3%；日元上周涨2.37%；欧元上周涨 幅约为3.59%，澳元和新元则同样受益于市场风险偏好的回暖均涨超4%。 高盛北亚 ...