Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields collectively declined on February 12, with significant drops across various maturities [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 4.57 basis points to 3.456% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield decreased by 6.94 basis points to 3.500% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 7.98 basis points to 3.659% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 7.04 basis points to 4.100% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield fell by 7.44 basis points to 4.732% [1]

Group 1 - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain stable in the short term but are projected to rise later in the year due to inflation and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Nearly 60% of bond strategists believe that the massive issuance of government debt to finance Trump's tax cuts and spending plans will make it unfeasible for the Federal Reserve to significantly reduce its balance sheet by $6.6 trillion [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts later this year, with the first expected in June when Walsh takes over as Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rates, is projected to decrease from the current 3.50% to 3.45% by the end of April and further to 3.38% by the end of July [1] - The median forecast indicates that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.29% in one year, up from last month's prediction of 4.20% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in January reshaped the interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased high - level volatility in precious metals. Gold is under short - term pressure, and the trading focus returns to the interest rate path. Silver's financial attribute is under pressure, and the structural differentiation continues [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: The new employment and salary data are higher than expected, and the unemployment rate has fallen, strengthening the narrative of labor market resilience. The market's pricing of the easing rhythm this year needs adjustment. The dollar and yields rebound simultaneously, and the expected real interest rate rises, directly suppressing non - interest - bearing assets. Before the data release, the bond market yield was at a stage low, and there was a weak data expectation gap. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and long - position profit - taking, intensifying price fluctuations [1]. - **Outlook**: Before the employment and salary show clear weakening signals, the interest rate cut trading is difficult to develop unilaterally. The gold price may enter a stage of high - level oscillation and repeated sentiment. In the medium term, it still depends on the direction of the real interest rate and the change of the dollar trend [1]. Silver - **Logic**: The strong employment data boosts interest rate expectations, and the financial attribute of silver is under pressure. The industrial demand expectation has not weakened significantly, making the silver price more elastic than the gold price, but with more prominent high - volatility characteristics. The Shanghai silver maintains relative strength, indicating that the internal - external market structure has not completely weakened, but the capital game has intensified [2]. - **Outlook**: If the dollar and yields remain strong, the silver price volatility will remain high. If the subsequent macro data weakens again, silver still has room for repair under the "interest rate cut + risk hedging" framework [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [40]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 11, 2026, the precious metals index was 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decline of 1.35%, a 1 - month decline of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.61% [42].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations on February 11, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising by 2.77 basis points to 4.1704% and the 2-year yield increasing by 5.79 basis points to 3.5099% before the release of the non-farm employment report [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield traded within a range of 4.1170% to 4.2041% during the day [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 3.4415% and 3.5472% throughout the trading session [1] - Both yields saw a significant increase following the release of the non-farm employment report, with the 10-year yield jumping from a low just before the data release [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（2月11日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨6.41个基点报3.512%，3年 期美债收益率涨5.87个基点报3.569%，5年期美债收益率涨4.51个基点报3.743%，10年期美债收益率涨 2.77个基点报4.170%，30年期美债收益率涨2.22个基点报4.806%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected significant increase in non-farm payrolls has led to a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, creating challenges for the U.S. Treasury during its upcoming refinancing auction [1] Group 1 - Analyst Ian Lyngen from the Bank of Montreal highlighted the impact of the non-farm payroll increase on U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The rise in yields is particularly inconvenient for the U.S. Treasury, which is set to conduct a quarterly refinancing auction for 10-year Treasury bonds [1] - The issuance and underwriting of new bonds may face challenges due to the increased yields [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have slightly decreased ahead of the January employment data, which is expected to show moderate growth [1] - Analysts predict that 55,000 new jobs will be added in January, slightly above the previous value of 50,000 [1] - The focus for investors is also on the U.S. Treasury's issuance of $42 billion in 10-year bonds [1] Group 2 - According to Tradeweb data, the two-year Treasury yield has decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.447%, while the 10-year yield has fallen by 0.8 basis points to 4.136% [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（2月10日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌6.14个基点，报4.1407%，全天持续 下挫，北京时间21:30发布美国零售销售数据后加速下跌。两年期美债收益率跌3.31个基点，报 3.4520%；30年期美债收益率跌7.42个基点，报4.7840%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.824个基点，报 +68.458个基点。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（2月10日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.49个基点报3.454%，3年 期美债收益率跌3.96个基点报3.514%，5年期美债收益率跌3.99个基点报3.701%，10年期美债收益率跌 5.94个基点报4.143%，30年期美债收益率跌7.22个基点报4.785%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has led to a significant appreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, exceeding 1% [1][3] - The USD/JPY pair fell by 1.1% to a daily low of 154.22, marking the lowest intraday level since January 30, with the yen outperforming all G10 currencies [1][4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased by 0.1%, while the USD/NOK fell by 1% to 9.4770, and the USD/CHF dropped by 0.4% to 0.7629 [1][4] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond declined by 6 basis points to 4.14% [2][5]