机构观点 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国裁员数创20年来新高，美债收益率走低，12月降息路径仍不明朗，美元 指数震荡收跌；油价弱势震荡运行。基本面上，利空因素逐步被交易，等待下周一MPOB报告发布，关 注累库情况带来的指引。11月产地进入减产季，且生柴政策有炒作反复的预期，对价格有一定支撑。预 计短期棕榈油震荡偏弱运行。 宁证期货：棕榈油在11月有减产预期，一定程度支撑期价；国内方面豆棕价差快速修复，棕榈油性价比 逐渐提升，需求在近期提振较为明显。但近月基本面继续施压，短期内棕榈油空头利润兑现离场，底部 调整。 11月7日，棕榈油期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报8688.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.32%。 【消息面汇总】 截至10月31日当周，国内棕榈油库存为59.28万吨，环比减少2.36%，同比增加17.29%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年11月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期增加5.12%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.32%，产量环比上月同期增加6.80%。 BMI预测2025/26年度全球棕榈油产量将增长1.8%，达到8,010万吨；其中印尼产量将增长3.3 ...

每经AI快讯，周四(11月6日)，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌7.20个基点报3.553%，3年期 美债收益率跌7.92个基点报3.564%，5年期美债收益率跌8.50个基点报3.680%，10年期美债收益率跌7.60 个基点报4.083%，30年期美债收益率跌5.77个基点报4.680%。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant layoff announcements, with a total of 153,000 announced layoffs in October, marking the worst October in 22 years [2][3] - Previous months showed higher layoff numbers, with February at 275,000 and January at 172,000, indicating a trend of increasing layoffs earlier in the year [2][3] - The bond market has reacted to these layoff announcements, with two-year and ten-year yields drifting lower, reflecting investor sentiment and market conditions [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have influenced the bond market, bringing yields back to a range of 4.05% to 4.10%, with speculation on whether they will drop below 4% again [3][4] - There have been six closes under 4% in October 2025, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [3] - Investors are focused on whether yields will rise back towards 4.25%, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the market [4]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant movements this week, particularly with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, marking a one-month high [1] - If the U.S. Treasury yield continues to climb towards 4.21%, it may further bolster the strength of the U.S. dollar [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月6日现货黄金回升，美债收益率及降息预期影响市场】11月6日，Investinglive分析师称，周二遭 抛售后，现货黄金价格逐步回升至3980 - 3990美元区间，不过当前价格动能难挑战4000美元心理关口。 本周债券市场关键动向受关注，十年期美债收益率昨日跃升至4.16%，创一个月新高。若向4.21%攀 升，或提振美元，施压黄金市场情绪。 债券市场走出独立行情，近期美国私营部门数据或影响美联储 12月决策。交易员对12月降息25个基点概率定价约61%，并非确定之事。 市场对降息预期定价的调 整，未来数周将对黄金产生关键影响。且即将迎来12月至次年1月贵金属传统季节性看涨周期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, leading to reduced demand for gold as an investment option [3][4][10]. Market Dynamics - On November 4, gold prices fell nearly $70 in a single day, dropping from around $4000 to a low of $3928 per ounce, closing at $3931.86 [1]. - The ICE US Dollar Index reached a three-month high, closing at 100.20, which made gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.11%, making US bonds more attractive compared to gold, prompting a shift of funds from gold to the dollar [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Current gold price trends indicate a continuation of a bearish pattern, with prices breaking below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3928 and $3900, with potential further declines to $3850/3840 or even $3820-3800 [6][15]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards further downward adjustments unless gold can reclaim the $4000 level [6][15]. Central Bank Behavior - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [7][9]. - Emerging market central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have significant potential to increase their gold reserves, which could impact future demand [9][10]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divide in market sentiment, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices, while institutional investors are pulling funds from gold ETFs, with a record outflow of $7.5 billion in a week [12][10]. - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to increased anxiety among investors, with many questioning their strategies in light of the rapid price changes [10][12]. Broader Market Context - The decline in gold prices is part of a larger adjustment in global financial markets, influenced by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and a strong US dollar [12][10]. - The correlation between gold prices and inflation has been significant, with gold serving as an effective hedge against inflation over the past 20 years [13].

Group 1 - The global largest gold ETF held 1,038.63 tons as of November 4, with a reduction of 3.15 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating a tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice questioning its reasonableness, leading to a decreased probability of a Trump victory [2] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 36 days, impacting the stock market, airline industry, and food assistance programs, but Trump still anticipates new highs in the stock market [2] Group 2 - Economic data shows that U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but labor demand is slowing and wage growth is stagnant [2] - The service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, surpassing economists' predictions [2] - The U.S. Treasury maintained its quarterly refinancing scale but hinted at potential increases in the future, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish crossover in the KD indicator [4] - The strategy for gold trading today suggests buying on dips between 3,965.9 and 3,971.9, with a stop loss at 3,960.9 and a target range of 3,975.9 to 3,981.9 [4] - Silver prices are also below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a similar bearish crossover in the KD indicator, recommending selling on highs between 48.21 and 48.71 [4]

美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上 岗，航空公司已经炸锅。美国运输部长达菲放出狠话：如果本周五前还谈不拢，就从周五开始对40个主 要机场削减10%的计划航班！这意味着全美航空即将陷入大混乱，航班大面积延误、取消就在眼前。避 险情绪瞬间点燃黄金！市场也不乏利空消息：美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于 市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指数 强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌 至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨 1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。需要提醒的是，但好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳 动力市场发生了实质性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有 助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。短期看，美元200日均线压力、美债收益率冲高，都会给金价 制造波动；但中期看，政府停摆无 ...