周五，交易员结束圣诞节假期返市，为包含强劲美国经济数据的一周画上句号，美债收益率基本持平。 基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌不到1个基点，报4.132%。2年期国债收益率下跌1个基点，报3.497%。 1个基点等于0.01%。收益率与价格呈反向变动。 交易员继续评估最新经济数据。 美国劳工部周三报告称，截至12月20日当周的初请失业金人数为21.4万人，低于预期，并较前一周减少 1万人。 美国商务部周二还报告称，美国经济在第一季度增长了4.3%，为该国两年来最快的扩张速度。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率策略主管格雷戈里·法拉内洛（Gregory Faranello）本周早些时候写道："经 济状况良好。在通胀和增长以这种速度运行的情况下，不可能指望10年期收益率大幅走低。" 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 周五，交易员结束圣诞节假期返市，为包含强劲美国经济数据的一周画上句号，美债收益率基本持平。 美国商务部周二还报告称，美国经济在第一季度增长了4.3%，为该国两年来最快的扩张速度。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率策略主管格雷戈里·法拉内洛（Gregory Faranello）本周早些 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •日本2026财年预算创新高 国债发行规模近30万亿日元 •埃及央行将基准利率下调100个基点，隔夜贷款和存款利率分别调整为21%和20%，以应对高通胀压力 缓和后的政策调整需求。 •乌克兰总统泽连斯基25日透露，已与美国总统特朗普特使威特科夫及库什纳通电话，就未来会晤安排 和加速推进"真正和平"进程交换意见。 【全球市场动态】 •日本央行行长：利率仍有上调空间 •韩国央行保持降息选项开放 警惕汇率与楼市风险 •埃及央行大幅降息100基点 贷款利率降至21% 【市场资讯】 •日本首相高市早苗公布2026财年初始预算案，总额达122.3万亿日元，同比增长6.3%，刷新历史纪录。 为填补财政缺口，政府计划发行约29.6万亿日元国债。 •日本央行行长植田和男表示，随着实现可持续通胀目标的信心增强，若经济展望如期兑现，央行有意 进一步加息，并指出当前实际利率仍处低位。 •日本政府将2025财年GDP增长预期从0.7%上调至1.1%，并预计2026财年经济增速将进一步提升至 1.3%，反映出对经济复苏势头的乐观判断。 •韩国央行在2026年货币政策声明中表示，不排除进一步降息可能，同时强调 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（12月24日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.45个基点报3.506%，3年 期美债收益率跌2.23个基点报3.558%，5年期美债收益率跌1.92个基点报3.718%，10年期美债收益率跌 2.73个基点报4.136%，30年期美债收益率跌2.94个基点报4.795%。 ...

周一纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨1.76个基点，报4.1647%。两年期美债收益率涨1.72个基点， 报3.5025%，北京时间16:00以来持续走高，02:24（美国财政部两年期美债拍卖结果出炉后）刷新日高 至3.5109%；30年期美债收益率涨1.53个基点，报4.8395%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌0.340个基点，报 +65.821个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨2.34个基点，至1.9100%；两年期TIPS收益率涨 0.80个基点，至1.1655%；30年期TIPS收益率涨2.19个基点，至2.6325%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has an optimistic expectation for the liquidity situation, as indicated by the downward trends in certificate of deposit (CD) rates and interest rate swap (IRS) yields [2]. - The liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with minor disturbances to the funds before the Spring Festival, as the MLF is likely to continue to be renewed in excess [5]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries a. Interest Rates - Bank - to - bank interest rates were differentiated. DR007 had an average of 1.44%, up 4BP from the previous week. R007 had an average of 1.51%, up from the previous week. DR001 and R001 had averages of 1.27% and 1.35% respectively. Exchange repurchase rates increased, with the average GC007 at 1.55%. CD rates and IRS yields declined. The 1 - year AAA CD yield was 1.64% at the end of last week, down from the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 IRS average was 1.52%, slightly down from the previous week [2][7]. b. Repurchase Transactions - Repurchase trading volume increased. The pledged repurchase trading volume was between 8.3 - 8.6 trillion yuan last week, and the average R001 trading volume was 76346 billion yuan, up 4094 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance was 12.9 trillion yuan at the end of last week, up from the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks and money market funds decreased, while the borrowing scale of funds and wealth management products increased, and the borrowing scale of securities firms decreased [3]. c. Bill and Exchange Rates - Bill rates decreased. On December 19th, the 6 - month national bill transfer quote was 0.89%, down from the previous week, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased to 7.04 last Friday, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The US 1 - year Treasury yield may show a steeper curve in the future [4]. d. This Week's Focus - This week, there are 8775 billion yuan of open - market funds maturing, including 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF. The LPR in December remained unchanged. US Q3 GDP will be announced on Tuesday, and China's November industrial enterprise profits will be announced on Saturday. Although the tax - payment period has passed, the increase in government bond supply this week may cause some disturbances to the liquidity. The MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market continued to recover last week, with yields on various tenors generally declining. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has rebounded, but the space for further capital gains may be limited. A neutral and oscillatory mindset is advisable [3]. - The yields of money market funds have been continuously declining, and multiple money market funds have imposed purchase restrictions [4][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Pan-fixed-income Market Review and Observation 3.1.1. Bond Market Performance - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), the 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury yields decreased by 3.32BP, 0.88BP, and 2.35BP to 1.35%, 1.83%, and 2.23% respectively. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has recovered [3]. - US Treasury yields declined across the board last week. The 1-year, 2-year, and 10-year US Treasury yields decreased by 3BP, 4BP, and 3BP to 3.51%, 3.48%, and 4.16% respectively [12]. 3.1.2. REITs Market Performance - Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 2.85% to 999.19 points. The highway and rental housing sectors led the decline. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week [12]. 3.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The yields of money market funds have been continuously declining. As of December 16, the median seven-day annualized yield of money market funds was 1.24%, and over a hundred funds had a yield of less than 1%. Multiple funds have announced short-term purchase restrictions [4][13]. 3.3. Pan-fixed-income Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.3.1. Overall Performance | Index Classification | Weekly Return | Cumulative Return Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | | Money Enhancement Index | 0.03% | 4.43% | | Short-term Bond Fund Selection | 0.04% | 4.57% | | Medium- and Long-term Bond Fund Selection | 0.08% | 6.77% | | Low-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.22% | 4.49% | | Medium-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.12% | 6.25% | | High-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.13% | 8.00% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | 0.01% | 22.42% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | 0.05% | 10.05% | | REITs Fund Selection | -2.22% | 29.35% | [6] 3.3.2. Index Positioning - **Money Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims for liquidity management, targeting a curve that outperforms money market funds. It mainly invests in money market funds and interbank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Market Fund Index [15]. - **Short-term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Focuses on liquidity management, aiming for a smooth curve with controlled drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long-term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * General Money Market Fund Index [18]. - **Medium- and Long-term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Seeks stable returns by investing in medium- and long-term pure bond funds. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium- and long-term bond fund index and a steady upward net value curve. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds to interest rate bond funds according to market conditions [20]. - **Low-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed-income + funds with an equity position of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% * CSI 800 Index + 90% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [22]. - **Medium-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 20%. It selects 5 fixed-income + funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% * CSI 800 Index + 80% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [26]. - **High-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 30%. It selects 5 fixed-income + funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% * CSI 800 Index + 70% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [27]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects 5 bond funds with a high proportion of convertible bond investments. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions to select the best funds [31]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control [34]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets are high-quality infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity [35].

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《中美股债再平衡》20250512 《美国 4 月零售、通胀数据平淡》20250518 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 《"大而美"法案加剧美国财政压力》20250707 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》20250720 《就业数据下修、降息可能提前——美国 6 月 PCE 和 7 月非农数据点评》20250804 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 《"快降息" ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（12月19日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.76个基点报3.483%，3年 期美债收益率涨3.05个基点报3.528%，5年期美债收益率涨2.99个基点报3.692%，10年期美债收益率涨 2.74个基点报4.147%，30年期美债收益率涨2.13个基点报4.824%。 ...

格隆汇12月20日｜周五（12月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.74个基点，报4.1490%，本 周累计下跌3.50%。两年期美债收益率涨2.34个基点，报3.4834%，本周累跌3.88个基点；30年期美债收 益率涨2.43个基点，报4.8272%，本周累跌1.73个基点。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.401个基点，报 +66.356个基点，本周累涨0.377个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨3.40个基点，至 1.8902%，本周累涨0.45个基点；两年期TIPS收益率涨0.66个基点，至1.1618%，本周累涨5.10个基点； 30年期TIPS收益率涨3.09个基点，至2.6134%，本周累涨1.00个基点。 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收涨5.05%，铂金主力收涨7%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑停 火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性 方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍 威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期 美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供 应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡，长期 ...