（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（2月10日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌6.14个基点，报4.1407%，全天持续 下挫，北京时间21:30发布美国零售销售数据后加速下跌。两年期美债收益率跌3.31个基点，报 3.4520%；30年期美债收益率跌7.42个基点，报4.7840%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.824个基点，报 +68.458个基点。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（2月10日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.49个基点报3.454%，3年 期美债收益率跌3.96个基点报3.514%，5年期美债收益率跌3.99个基点报3.701%，10年期美债收益率跌 5.94个基点报4.143%，30年期美债收益率跌7.22个基点报4.785%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has led to a significant appreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, exceeding 1% [1][3] - The USD/JPY pair fell by 1.1% to a daily low of 154.22, marking the lowest intraday level since January 30, with the yen outperforming all G10 currencies [1][4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased by 0.1%, while the USD/NOK fell by 1% to 9.4770, and the USD/CHF dropped by 0.4% to 0.7629 [1][4] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond declined by 6 basis points to 4.14% [2][5]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The gold market continued its upward trend, with spot gold reaching a high of $5086.42 per ounce and closing up 1.93% at $5060.53 per ounce [1][6] - The market opened at $4982.1 per ounce, dipped to $4963.7, and then experienced strong fluctuations, ultimately closing at $5060.1 per ounce [7][8] - The current trading range for gold is between $4981 and $5344, with potential adjustments if a breakout does not occur [8] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - Spot silver reached a peak of $84 before closing up 7.17% at $83.37 [1][6] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil opened at $62.88 per barrel, fell to $62.64, and then surged to a high of $64.91, closing at $64.44, up 1.45% [3][9] - Brent crude oil also saw an increase, closing up 1.71% at $68.70 per barrel [1][6] - The oil market is currently experiencing fluctuations within a range, with potential for a breakout [9] Group 4: Nasdaq Market Insights - The Nasdaq opened at $25124.52, reached a high of $2534.61, and closed at $25269.46, indicating a reversal to bullish sentiment [4][10] - The trading range for the Nasdaq is between $24885 and $25920, with a focus on maintaining bullish momentum [10]

Group 1 - Trump's actions indicate a shift towards controlling the Federal Reserve, aiming to influence interest rates to align with his agenda, particularly in light of rising U.S. debt and economic challenges [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, significantly impacting the financial market's ability to manage this debt, which is a key factor in the inability to lower bond yields [3][5] - Despite the Federal Reserve's previous willingness to accommodate Trump's requests for rate cuts, the ongoing criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell suggests increasing tensions between the administration and the central bank [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's economic policies have been characterized by impulsive decisions, such as initiating a global tariff war without a clear strategy, which has led to unforeseen consequences for U.S. retailers and the economy [7] - The administration's approach to trade, particularly with China, has resulted in retaliatory measures that have complicated negotiations and highlighted the risks of aggressive economic policies [7] - The potential for drastic interest rate cuts poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, including the possibility of widespread bank failures and severe inflation, which could destabilize the financial system [5][7]

每经AI快讯，周一(2月9日)，美债收益率多数下跌，2年期美债收益率跌0.63个基点报3.485%，3年期美 债收益率跌1.13个基点报3.556%，5年期美债收益率跌1.22个基点报3.745%，10年期美债收益率跌0.19个 基点报4.202%，30年期美债收益率涨0.72个基点报4.857%。 ...

格隆汇2月10日｜周一（2月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌1.19个基点，刷新日低至 4.1941%，北京时间14:00短线拉升、随后涨至4.2479%刷新日高，21:23出现一波瞬间的下挫行情，日内 大部分时间处于上涨状态。两年期美债收益率跌1.24个基点，报3.4851%；30年期美债收益率跌0.32个 基点，报4.8479%。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.462个基点，报+70.893个基点，22:59曾刷新日高至 +73.699个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率跌1.99个基点，至1.8576%；两年期TIPS收益率跌 2.01个基点，至0.6901%；30年期TIPS收益率跌0.87个基点，至2.5758%。 ...

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. labor market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] - A weaker-than-expected data release could reignite concerns about labor market momentum and strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing later this year, which would likely pressure the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, strong data performance could challenge these expectations, providing support for the dollar and pushing up yields [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].

每经AI快讯，周五（2月6日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨5.54个基点报3.498%，3年期 美债收益率涨5.10个基点报3.567%，5年期美债收益率涨4.50个基点报3.757%，10年期美债收益率涨2.99 个基点报4.206%，30年期美债收益率涨1.33个基点报4.852%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...