Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data has reignited discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a significant focus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][2][3] - In August, U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, and the non-farm employment figures for April 2024 to March 2025 were revised down by 911,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, indicating that while the job market is cooling, there is no evidence of large-scale layoffs or imminent recession [1][3] Group 2 - The inflation data, while not obstructing rate cuts, presents a potential rebound risk, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [2] - Consumer long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9% for September, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, and a hasty 50 basis point cut could lead to greater controversy and negatively impact the credibility of the dollar [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold continued to rise and hit a new high, driven by geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US inflation rebounded as expected, and the employment market continued to weaken. The divergence between hawks and doves at the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting is expected to increase. After the price of gold reached a record high, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and market volatility increased. Attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 1.8%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was - 8.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 56.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 22.2% to 52,950 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 38,914,491 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.73% to 974.80 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.4% to 166,417 lots. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.0% to 4.06%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 4.3% to 1.69% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.41%. Oil prices rose 3.8%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.37%. The US dollar index fell 0.22% to 97.55, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.59%, and the VIX index dropped to 14.76. The real interest rate dropped to 1.69%, and the gold price rose 1.6% [17][19][21] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.59%. Developing country stock markets also mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%. US Treasury bonds fell slightly, German bonds rose, and the US - Germany spread was 1.35%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.67%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.59%. The euro appreciated 0.14%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.34%, the yen depreciated 0.17%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.18%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [22][26][28] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 166,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume dropped to 974 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 86.3 [32][35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's August social retail sales and industrial added value; Japan's market closed. Tuesday: US August retail sales and September NAHB housing index. Wednesday: US August new housing starts and building permits; Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision. Thursday: Fed and Bank of England September interest rate meetings. Friday: Bank of Japan September interest rate meeting [36]

美国通胀数据平稳是金融市场一直等待的降息信号。当地时间9月11日周四，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.9%，持平预期，较前值2.7%小幅回升。美国8月CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%，较前月0.2%的增幅翻倍，使年化通胀率维持在2.9%。 市场预计在即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，美联储降息25个基点的概率为九成以上 文|《财经》特约撰稿人金焱发自华盛顿 编辑| 苏琦 美国初请失业金人数大幅上升，接下来可能会出现更多裁员。摄/金焱 美国最新通胀数据显示，约占CPI三分之一的住房成本环比上升0.4%，为年内最大环比涨幅。摄/金焱 剔除食品和能源价格不计，关键的8月核心CPI指数环比上涨0.3%，高于6月和7月的环比0.2%，12个月累计涨幅为3.1%，均符合预期。美联储官员认为核 心指标能更有效衡量长期趋势。约占CPI三分之一的住房成本环比上升0.4%，为年内最大环比涨幅，同比涨幅为3.6%。新车价格环比上升0.3%，同比上升 0.7%；二手汽车和卡车的价格指标环比上升1%，同比上升6%。 惠誉首席经济学家布莱恩·柯尔顿（Brian Coulton）对《财经 ...

Overview - The August CPI in the US met market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][3] - Core CPI also aligned with expectations, recording a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly due to weak tariff-related goods and a decline in super core service inflation [1][3] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [1][15] - In the core services category, rent saw a slight increase to 0.4%, but super core services weakened, reflecting a decline in employment in related sectors [2][22] Outlook - The outlook for inflation suggests a "slower and longer" trend, with CPI expected to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters according to Bloomberg forecasts [3][27] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims [3][32] - Employment trends are anticipated to be a core contradiction for the Federal Reserve's decisions moving forward, with a potential rise in unemployment rates above 4.5% being a key factor [3][32]

Overview - The August CPI in the US was in line with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while the core CPI also matched expectations at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1][5][6] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the underlying structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly from tariff-related goods and a weakening in super core service inflation [1][4][6] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [2][21] - Core service inflation saw a slight increase in rent, but super core services weakened, correlating with a slowdown in job growth in relevant sectors. The core services CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% in July, primarily affected by non-rent services [2][27] Outlook - The outlook suggests that US inflation may exhibit a "slower and longer" trend, with tariffs and low willingness to pass on costs limiting goods inflation. Bloomberg forecasts the CPI to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters [3][38] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims. The market has adjusted expectations for rate cuts from 2.7 to 2.9 times for the year [3][38]

Group 1 - The overall inflation in the U.S. rose in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.3% [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI recorded a 2.9% increase, which is consistent with market expectations and represents a 0.2 percentage point acceleration from July [1][2] - The 0.4% month-on-month increase is the largest since February and is double the increase seen in July [2] Group 2 - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous month’s increases and market expectations [2] Group 3 - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3] - New car prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, while used car and truck prices rose by 1% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - The CPI report indicates persistent inflation in the U.S., influenced by global tariffs and rising service costs, which may exert lasting pressure on overall inflation [4] - The number of initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, increasing by 27,000 from the previous week, which was above market expectations of 235,000 [4] - This rise in jobless claims, combined with a low non-farm payroll increase of only 22,000, suggests a weakening trend in the U.S. labor market [4]

Inflation Data - The US August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.7% and market expectations of 2.84%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of 3.05%[2] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the US rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a nearly four-year high[8] - Initial jobless claims surged to the highest level in nearly four years as of the week ending September 6[8] - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.8% in August, while the five-year expectation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%[3] Market Implications - The rise in inflation has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of three cuts within the year significantly rising[2] - Despite the overall CPI exceeding expectations, core CPI growth was in line with market predictions, indicating potential inflation persistence[3] - The combination of high inflation, slowing economic growth, and rising unemployment signals a risk of stagflation in the US economy[8]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: "The Last Hurdle Before Interest Rate Cuts: Inflation Control Confirmed - A Review of US Inflation Data in August 2025" [1] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - CPI and core CPI both increased in August, but the growth was limited, and the increase in core CPI was weaker than that of CPI [2]. - The increase in CPI was mainly driven by food and energy items, while core services showed controllable inflation under the slowdown of wage growth, and the real - estate market continued to cool down [8]. - Weak demand persists, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the market's expectation of a September rate cut remaining at 100% [8]. Group 4: Data Observation Price Indexes - In August, CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.84%, previous 2.7%) and 0.4% month - on - month (previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 3.05%, previous 3.0%) and 0.3% month - on - month (same as previous) [2]. Energy and Food Items - Energy items: In August, the energy sub - item rose 0.7% month - on - month (previous - 1.1%), with gasoline prices turning from a decline to an increase (1.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since January). Electricity and pipeline gas prices also rose significantly, with year - on - year increases of 6.2% and 13.8% respectively [3]. - Food items: In August, the food sub - item increased by 3.2% year - on - year (higher than the overall CPI) and 0.5% month - on - month (inflation expanded from July's 0.0%), with significant month - on - month increases in fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs [3]. Demand - Sensitive Indicators - Vehicle prices: Used car prices rose 1.0% month - on - month (previous 0.5%) and 6.0% year - on - year. New car prices also recovered, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (previous 0.0%) and a 0.7% year - on - year increase (previous 0.4%) [4]. - Consumer confidence: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.2 in August (previous 61.7), the first decline in 4 months [4]. - Used car wholesale: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index showed that the year - on - year wholesale price dropped to 1.72%, and the month - on - month value was only 0.03% [4]. Demand - Lagging Indicators - Furniture prices: The month - on - month growth rate of furniture prices dropped to 0.1% (previous 0.7%), indicating that the impact of tariff costs on furniture prices is weakening and demand has not recovered [4]. Service - Related CPI - Service - related CPI: The month - on - month service CPI began to decline, and the year - on - year value remained the same. The housing market continued to cool down under the slowdown of wage growth [5]. Group 5: Deep Analysis - Inflation controllability: The increase in CPI in August was mainly due to volatile items, and core inflation was still controllable, which did not affect the expectation of an interest rate cut in September [8]. - Future trends: Weak demand continues, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates [8]. - Market reaction: The market regarded the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool showed that the expectation of a September rate cut remained at 100%, and traders increased their bets on a rate cut in the second half of the year [8]. Group 6: Summary of Key Charts CPI and Core CPI Trends - Chart 1 shows the year - on - year trends of CPI and core CPI, including actual and predicted values [13][17]. - Chart 2 and 3 show the month - on - month trends of CPI and core CPI and their comparisons with previous years [13][18]. CPI Component Analysis - Chart 4 details the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI components [13][20]. Other Market Indicators - Chart 5 shows the continuous decline of oil prices [13][21]. - Chart 6 shows that the used car wholesale price increased slightly with low volatility [13][21]. - Chart 7 shows that leading indicators of rent levels are on a continuous downward trend [13][23]. - Chart 8 shows that supply - chain pressure is decreasing while sales are slightly recovering [13][23]. - Chart 9 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and core CPI growth is narrowing [13][25]. - Chart 10 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and productivity growth is narrowing [13][26].

Core Insights - The article discusses the moderate inflation trend in the U.S. for August, driven by food and energy prices, while the transmission of tariffs remains slow, indicating that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness and the Fed's assessment of tariff impacts as one-time events suggest that market focus will shift to employment risks, with interest rate cut expectations likely to persist until concerns about the job market ease [2] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%). The core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food and energy components, while core goods showed a slight recovery, and core services remained stable [1][2] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, largely influenced by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%). However, the overall core goods growth, excluding used cars, remained flat at 0.17%, indicating slow tariff transmission [1][2] - In the core services sector, rental inflation was the main contributor, but its sustainability is questionable. Air travel and hotel accommodation prices increased due to tourism demand, while other service categories like healthcare and education saw declines [2] Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - The slow transmission of tariffs combined with stable service inflation suggests that inflation will not be a barrier for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [2] - The rise in initial jobless claims and the Fed's view of tariff impacts as temporary have shifted market attention to employment risks, with limited market sentiment disturbance from inflation [2]

Inflation Overview - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [9] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices, which increased from 0.5% to 1.0% [13] - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent inflation contributing significantly, while other service categories like medical and leisure services saw a decline [16] Employment Market Concerns - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since June 2023 [20] - The labor market's ongoing weakness is expected to keep market focus on employment risks rather than inflation [20] Market Expectations - The market continues to favor "rate cut trades," with a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and expectations for cuts in October and December as well [22] - Despite the anticipated rate cuts, there are concerns about persistent inflation pressures post-cut, particularly if demand stabilizes [22] Risk Factors - There are renewed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for continued unexpected slowdowns in the U.S. labor market [23]