Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory. The PP market is also expected to fluctuate, with a bearish fundamental outlook as well [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China - US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6770 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing of China - US relations. Bearish factors include weaker - than - expected demand and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the PMI declined in October, and the oil market situation changed after the China - US meeting. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 55, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.9%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), considered neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, average downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebound and China - US relations easing, while bearish factors include weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6770 (-40), the price of the 01 contract is 6699 (-8), the basis is 71 (-32), the import price in US dollars is 770 (0), the import - converted price is 6712 (-3), and the import spread is 58 (-37). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), and the social inventory is 47.1 million tons (-15) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6350 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6295 (30), the basis is 55 (-30), the import price in US dollars is 755 (0), the import - converted price is 6584 (-3), and the import spread is - 234 (3). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), and the social inventory is 30.8 million tons (-13) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4319.5 million tons [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with a gradual decrease in import dependence. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4906 million tons [15]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today due to an oversupply in the fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with an oversupply in the fundamentals, average downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, while other films were mainly for essential needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,840 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE's comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract increased, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may cause oil prices to rebound, and the China-US summit reached a phased easing [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is bearish. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,380 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 8, with a premium ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP's comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, but it is still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, weaker demand year-on-year and many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an increasing trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets from October 27 to November 25, 2025, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and market prices of L and PP, influenced by factors such as futures trends, production enterprise price adjustments, and downstream demand. Important news covers various aspects such as corporate establishment, strategic cooperation, and industry development. Logical analyses consider factors like production volume, economic indicators, and industry indices to assess impacts on the market. Trading strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, including holding, trying long or short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with daily changes ranging from - 0.67% to + 0.82%. Market prices showed partial increases, decreases, or mixed trends, with price changes in different regions ranging from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was generally weak, with factories showing low procurement enthusiasm and mostly making small - quantity or on - demand purchases [1][4][7]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also fluctuated, with daily changes from - 0.82% to + 0.34%. The market was characterized by narrow fluctuations, weak trends, or partial price adjustments. Downstream demand was cautious, with low inventory - building willingness and a preference for low - price sources [1][4][7]. Important News - **Corporate Events**: Include the establishment of new companies such as Wan华绿能 (东明) 清洁能源有限公司, strategic cooperation like the one between 中化塑料 and 陶氏化学, and corporate acquisitions such as 中国浙江艾昕尔丝袜公司's acquisition of 西班牙百年尼龙企业 Nylstar [7][16][23]. - **Industry Developments**: Involve the release of industry rankings, the implementation of new projects like 中国石油广西石化公司's 120 -万吨/年乙烯装置, and the issuance of industry - related policies such as 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025—2026 年)》[54][37][62]. - **Economic Data**: Include industrial production and sales data, PMI data, and logistics industry indices, which reflect the overall economic situation and industry trends [34][31][58]. Logical Analyses - **Supply - side Factors**: Consider factors such as domestic and international production volume changes of polypropylene, PE and PP capacity utilization rates, and inventory changes of relevant products [8][14][31]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Analyze factors like downstream industry demand (e.g., automotive, home appliance), economic policy uncertainty, and industry indices (e.g., PMI, logistics industry index) [2][34][31]. - **Other Factors**: Include stock index trends, freight index changes, and the relationship between different economic indicators [17][38][11]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggest different strategies for L and PP contracts, including holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach, and setting corresponding stop - loss points [2][5][8]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8]. - **Options Trading**: Usually, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China and the US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending the 301 investigation in maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly [4]. - OPEC+ changed the crude oil market from supply - short to supply - surplus on November 12, leading to a drop in oil prices [4]. - The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it has started to decline in some areas, while other film types have mainly rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6880 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Factors - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With oversupply in fundamentals, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but declines in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. LLDPE利多and利空 - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Sino - US talks reaching a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: Weaker demand year - on - year; More new production capacity coming on stream in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, and there were Sino - US talks and OPEC+ oil market adjustment [6]. - The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing an end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Factors - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with oversupply in fundamentals, the plastic - weaving peak season nearing an end, and the pipe demand picking up, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [6]. PP利多and利空 - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Sino - US talks reaching a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: Weaker demand year - on - year; More new production capacity coming on stream in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data LLDPE Market Data - Spot prices: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-20), LL import US dollars price is 797 (0), LL import conversion price is 6970 (1), and the LL import price difference is - 90 (-21) [8]. - Futures prices: The 01 contract price is 6833 (48), the basis is 47 (-68), and prices of other contracts (L05, L09) also have corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory warehouse inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), and the PE social inventory is 486,000 tons (-14,000) [8]. PP Market Data - Spot prices: The spot delivery product price is 6420 (-40), PP import US dollars price is 765 (0), PP import conversion price is 6696 (1), and the PP import price difference is - 276 (-41) [8]. - Futures prices: The 01 contract price is 6434 (42), the basis is - 14 (-82), and prices of other contracts (PP05, PP09) also have corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 15762 (1141), the PP comprehensive factory warehouse inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), and the PP social inventory is 321,000 tons (-20,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with corresponding changes in production, net import, and consumption [13]. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with corresponding changes in production, net import, and consumption [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing [4][5][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply on November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand in some areas is starting to decline, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6900 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 115, with a premium ratio of 1.7%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films with some areas seeing a decline in demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the Sino-US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors include weaker year-on-year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is not optimistic, and the crude oil market adjustment has led to falling oil prices. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing its end, while pipe demand is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6460 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 68, with a premium ratio of 1.1%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the approaching end of the peak season for plastic weaving, the improvement in pipe demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing, while bearish factors include weaker demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6900 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6785 (-58), and the basis is 115 (+58). The warehouse receipt is 12,017 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6460 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6392 (-75), and the basis is 68 (+75). The warehouse receipt is 14,621 (unchanged) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319,500 tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The fundamental situation is oversupply, with the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing but starting to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4][6]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the basis and net long position of the main contract are bullish factors [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the basis is neutral [6]. Detailed Summaries LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China-US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply shortage to oversupply, leading to a drop in oil prices. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it has started to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 57, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the crude oil market turned to oversupply. The peak season for plastic weaving is coming to an end, while the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -7, with a premium ratio of -0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the PE production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the PP production capacity has also been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been relatively low, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated [14]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10) [4][6][8]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The LLDPE and PP inventories have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as potential oil price rebounds and Sino - US relations easing [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand is starting to decline in some areas, and other film types have mainly rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6920 (+70), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues but is weakening in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and the oil price fell. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing the end, while the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak season for plastic weaving is ending, and the demand for pipes is improving, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The market conditions of L and PP plastics fluctuate daily, with prices showing various trends such as increases, decreases, and narrow - range movements. The supply and demand situation, along with factors like production capacity utilization, inventory, and external events, influence these price changes. [1][4] - Different factors, including economic indicators (e.g., PMI, GDP - related indices), industry - specific data (e.g., production ratios, import/export volumes), and geopolitical events, have both positive and negative impacts on the plastics market. [2][5] - The trading strategies for L and PP plastics vary daily, including suggestions like holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and deciding on whether to engage in arbitrage or option trading. [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price shows different trends such as continuous weakening,涨跌互现, and partial increases or decreases. The trading atmosphere is often affected by factors like futures trends, with downstream procurement being cautious. [1][4] - **PP Plastic**: The PP2601 contract price also fluctuates. The PP market may be weak, narrow - moving, or show small increases or decreases. The relationship between futures and the spot market affects the price and trading volume, and downstream demand is generally cautious. [1][4] Important Information - **Industry Conferences and Policies**: Various industry - related conferences are held, summarizing achievements and looking forward to future plans. Policies are also introduced to promote the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". [1][50] - **Company Achievements**: Some companies achieve significant results, like PetroChina Huabei Petrochemical Company reaching a high production ratio of polypropylene special materials, and Guangxi Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting up successfully. [1][25] - **International and Geopolitical Events**: There are international events such as the potential military action of the US against Venezuela and the impact of US tariff policies on global enterprises. [59][62] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: The production capacity utilization rates of PE and PP change over time, with some periods of increase and others of decrease. The net import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene also show different trends, affecting the market. [2][55] - **Economic Indicators**: Economic indicators such as the PMI of different countries, the global economic policy uncertainty index, and various industry - specific indices have impacts on the plastics market, either positively or negatively. [2][23] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions include holding long or short positions for L and PP main 01 contracts, and setting appropriate stop - loss points according to market conditions. [2][5] - **Arbitrage**: In most cases, it is recommended to wait and see, but there are also some specific suggestions for certain spreads. [2][5] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, with a few exceptions where specific option contracts are given trading suggestions. [2][5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today, with overall bearish fundamentals due to oversupply, high industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices. However, there are also some positive factors such as new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino-US talks [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sino-US leaders held a meeting, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6820 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 60, with a premium ratio of 0.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October. Sino-US talks and OPEC+ decisions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6470 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 41, with a premium ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, concluding that both are likely to show a weak and volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, high - neutral industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6800 (+30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 28, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE's comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the China - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC+ suspended production increases, causing oil price fluctuations. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP's comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Over the years, capacity has been increasing, with a 20.5% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has generally decreased, and consumption growth has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Capacity has been growing steadily, with an 11.0% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has also decreased over time [15].