重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月21日，美国袭击伊朗核设施，引发中东地缘危机再度升级，原油 预计走强，成本端利好。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，多数企业降负荷，下游需求整体 弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7460（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差45，升贴水比例0.6%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.6万吨（-1.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。以色列袭击伊朗引发中东地缘动荡，原油短期走强，成本端利好。供 需端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，下游观望情绪加重，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现 货价7460（+60），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-2，升贴水比例-0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.6万吨（-1.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.33% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 21.8% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for finished product inventory, shorting plastic futures (L2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7350 - 7400 can lock in profits and cover production costs; selling call options (L2509C7400) with a 50% ratio at 70 - 120 can collect premiums and lock in selling prices if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and based on order - based procurement needs, buying plastic futures (L2509) with a 50% ratio at 7000 - 7100 can lock in procurement costs; selling put options (L2509P7100) with a 75% ratio at 50 - 100 can collect premiums and lock in buying prices if prices fall [2] 3. Core Contradiction - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the polyolefin market has strengthened, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the PE market remains unchanged. The high HD - LL spread and good HDPE supply - demand with low inventory may lead to more full - density plant conversions, potentially alleviating LLDPE supply pressure. The Middle - East situation may also disrupt PE imports and support prices through higher oil costs, but price upside may be limited due to supply surplus [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more full - density plant conversions; the Middle - East tension drives up oil prices, supporting polyolefins; the Iran - related conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year; the downstream off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5] 6. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis on 2025 - 06 - 18 was 58 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 17 and 98 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 11. There were also various price differences among different L contracts and spreads such as L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1, and L - P [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - There were price differences in different regions (North China, East China, South China) and spreads between regions such as East - North and East - South [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - There were price differences between HDPE (membrane, hollow, injection,拉丝, pipes) and LDPE membranes compared to LLDPE membranes [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 75 dollars/barrel, with a 5.98 dollars/barrel increase compared to before. There were also prices and profit data for other upstream products and different PE production methods [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。以色列袭击伊朗引发中东地缘动荡，原油短期走强，成本端利好。供 需端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，下游观望情绪加重，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现 货价7360（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差43，升贴水比例0.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.9万吨（-0.7），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。以色列袭击伊朗引发中东地缘动荡，原油短期走强，成本端利好。供 需端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，下游观望情绪加重，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现 货价7320（+60），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差2，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.9万吨（-0.7），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。以色列袭击伊朗引发中东地缘动荡，原油短期大涨，成本端利好，当 前对伊朗产量影响有限，但后续风险很高，opec+增产行为恐难以短期弥补。供需端，农膜淡季， 包装膜需求转淡，下游观望情绪加重，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7260（+50）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差2，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.9万吨（-0.7），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the cost side has recent support, but there are new capacity releases and weak demand. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][5]. - For PP, the cost side has recent support, but overall demand is weak. The market is also expected to be volatile today considering the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation of China - US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It is the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7180 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, high inventory, and new capacity pressure, the PE market is likely to move sideways today [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the final result is uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 190, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.7%, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), indicating a neutral situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP market is likely to move sideways today [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the cost side has support recently, but there are new capacity releases and weak demand. For PP, the cost side also has support, but overall demand is weak [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased after announcements in May, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the medium term. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7160 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 54, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), indicating a neutral situation [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend. Recently, the cost side has support, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, there is still new capacity pressure, and industrial inventory is high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely factors**: Cost side has support recently [5]. - **Negative factors**: New capacity release and weak demand [5]. - **Main logic**: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain in the medium term. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs recently, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 209, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.0%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), indicating a neutral situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish signal [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, suggesting a bullish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend. Recently, the cost side has support, overall demand is weak, and industrial inventory is high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - **Likely factors**: Cost side has support recently [7]. - **Negative factors**: Weak demand [7]. - **Main logic**: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with varying growth rates each year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. Cost has recent support, but new capacity and weak demand create a cost - demand game, also influenced by tariff policies [4][6] Summaries by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. After the Sino - US tariff announcements in May, the situation eased, but the final negotiation result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7170 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 92, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), considered neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, also bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, new capacity pressure, and high industrial inventory, the PE is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity and weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is weak [6] - **Basis**: The PP 2509 contract basis is 218, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The PP main position is net long but reducing long positions, still bullish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption showed various trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also had different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Market Data Tables - **LLDPE**: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7170 (+10), 09 contract price 7078 (+12), and PE comprehensive factory inventory 57.6 tons [8] - **PP**: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7150 (+50), 09 contract price 6932 (+7), and PP comprehensive factory inventory 60.5 tons [8]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-9 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，4月28日央行表态"适时降准降息"，市场对流动性 宽松预期升温，但对实体需求传导仍需时间。五一假期期间OPEC+宣布自6月起增产，原油再次走 弱，油制聚烯烃成本支撑减弱。供需端，二季度预计仍有新产能投放，农膜旺季结束，小厂陆续 停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7300（-30）， 基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差254，升贴水比例3.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存 ...