在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级以及众议院通过特朗普的高税收支出法案后，市场对美国不断膨胀的赤字 的焦虑加剧。美国国会预算办公室预计，这可能使赤字增加近4万亿美元。长期国债收益率飙升，30年 期国债收益率达到5.14%，引发了对债务货币化和通货膨胀的担忧。因此，黄金相对于传统美国资产更 受青睐。 【黄金走势分析】 周二(5月27日)亚市盘中，国际黄金窄幅下跌，截至发稿金价报3337.92美元/盎司，跌幅0.14%。日内将 可关注美国4月耐用品订单月率、美国3月FHFA房价指数月率、美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数、美国5 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数等数据，市场预期整体先利好后利空，因而日内走势仍偏向震荡走盘的行情 去对待，多空都有机会。 【要闻速递】 特朗普决定将对欧盟商品征收50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，这短暂地缓解了地缘政治紧张局势。 上周末，美国总统表示，在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后，他同意延期，称配合正在进行的贸易 谈判是一种"荣幸"。这一举动与上周的激进言论形成了鲜明对比，当时特朗普威胁要"直接征收50%的 关税"，并提议对在美国境外制造的苹果手机征收25%的税。 尽管周一出现回调，但从更广泛的技术 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. debt issue has become a global economic focus, affecting both the stability of the U.S. economy and the global financial market [1][14] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. debt rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by a major rating agency [1][2] - The downgrade has led to significant fluctuations in long-term bond yields, reaching the highest levels since 2008, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.48%-4.54% and 30-year yields nearing 4.97% [1][2] Group 2 - Moody's report highlights systemic risks in U.S. federal finances, predicting a structural deterioration in the fiscal deficit, which could reach 9% of GDP by 2035 [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current policies persist, federal debt could reach 180% of GDP by 2050, with interest payments rising from 1.6% of GDP in 2023 to 6.7% [2] - Political polarization is hindering necessary reforms, with ongoing conflicts between the Republican and Democratic parties over tax cuts and welfare expansion [2][3] Group 3 - The current administration's tax cut proposals could lead to a $4.2 trillion reduction in fiscal revenue over ten years, exacerbating the deficit and debt situation [3] - The projected budget indicates a 33% increase in the deficit, driven by rising interest payments and social security expenditures [3] - Comparisons are drawn to the UK's fiscal situation, noting that the U.S. deficit is significantly higher than the UK's at the time of its crisis [3] Group 4 - Rising U.S. bond yields are prompting a global asset repricing, with long-term bond yields increasing while stock markets decline [4] - As of May 2025, the U.S. national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with $7 trillion maturing within the next 12 months [4] - Foreign investors are gradually reducing their exposure to U.S. securities, with notable sell-offs from countries like China and Japan [4] Group 5 - Central banks, including China's, are increasingly interested in gold, leading to a record high in global central bank gold purchases [5][6] - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 280 tons, raising the proportion of gold in its foreign reserves from 3.3% to 7.8% [6] Group 6 - The rising cost of borrowing for the U.S. government is projected to consume 22% of tax revenue by the 2030s for debt interest payments [7] - The Federal Reserve's shift from quantitative easing to tightening has increased market supply pressure on bonds, contributing to rising yields [7][11] - The potential for a return to quantitative easing raises concerns about inflation, especially given the recent inflation rates [7][12] Group 7 - The U.S. faces a pressing need to refinance $7 trillion in maturing debt, with rising yields making borrowing more expensive than in the past decade [11] - The reversal of quantitative easing has led to increased bond supply, while demand remains weak, resulting in falling bond prices and rising yields [11] Group 8 - Political gridlock poses a significant challenge to addressing the debt crisis, with both parties showing little willingness to compromise on fiscal policies [13] - Public sentiment largely opposes cuts to social security and other welfare programs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit [13] Group 9 - Long-term economic growth trajectories will be crucial in determining the sustainability of U.S. debt levels, with potential declines in innovation and productivity posing risks [14] - The U.S. must navigate the balance between fiscal responsibility and political feasibility to address its growing debt challenges [14]

Group 1 - The current gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to a strong US dollar, volatility in US Treasury bonds, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.3%, surpassing the 100 mark, which increased the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [1] - The passage of the Trump tax cut bill, which is expected to increase government debt by $3.8 trillion, has created an unusual market reaction despite expectations of negative impacts on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Senate is preparing for a challenging battle over the tax bill, with potential significant adjustments expected, particularly regarding social welfare and energy provisions [3] - The gold market is under pressure from the technical rebound of the dollar and the sell-off of US Treasuries, but long-term support for gold is being built by inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to credit concerns [3] - Investors are advised to focus on potential opportunities created by market corrections rather than being misled by short-term volatility, as the attributes of gold as a currency may be reawakening in the context of global debt expansion [3]

图片来源：视觉中国 在去年暴涨28%后，黄金价格今年前四个月再度飙升30%，创下历史新高。然而，伴随中美关税战初现 缓和迹象，金价上周暴跌超8%，现货黄金一度失守3200美元关口。正当市场担忧黄金牛市终结时，穆 迪下调美国主权信用评级的消息传来，推动金价周一直线拉升超1%，重返3220美元上方，黄金多头的 信心也再次受到鼓舞：短暂回调后，黄金是否王者归来？ 上周五（5月16日）美股盘后，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。继标普（2011年8月）、惠 誉（2023年8月）之后，这次下调意味着美国彻底失去三大评级机构的最高评级。穆迪此举直指美国财 政赤字失控：联邦债务突破36万亿美元，占GDP比重超120%，且2024财年国债利息支出首次突破1.1万 亿美元，占财政收入的22%，导致联邦财政赤字占GDP超6%。穆迪预计，到2035年美国财政赤字将达4 万亿美元，占GDP比重将接近9%，主要因为债务利息支付增加、福利支出上升和相对较低的财政收 入。 值得注意的是，美国国会预算办公室3月26日曾发出警告，称如果国会无法及时提高债务上限或暂停债 务上限生效，美国联邦政府最早将在8月面临没有足够资金按时支付所有 ...

发布日期：2025年05月18日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 证券研究报告行业简评报告 家电板块超额复盘：以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 分析师：马王杰 mawangjie@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521070002 分析师：付田行 futianhang@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440524070015 以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 2 核心观点：复盘过去十年：家电板块在长周期维度中大部分时间段均能明显跑赢沪深300。 即使部分时点受短期因素影响阶段性跑输，但跑输幅度基本控制在10%；而一旦市场风格 与板块自身基本面相配合，板块则会取得非常可观的超额收益，基本都在25%及以上的水 平。整体来看，如果以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块无论是从获取超额弹性维度，还 是回撤控制维度均具备极大的配置价值。 投资建议：1）推荐黑电龙头的拐点性机会，海信视像受益于 ...

近期黄金市场呈现"冰火两重天"：国内首饰金价跌破千元大关，而国际金价在剧烈震荡后重拾反弹。 这种分化背后，既有地缘政治、贸易谈判等短期因素扰动，也暗含全球货币体系重构的长期逻辑。 在这种情况下，投资者该如何进行投资？ 国内金饰价格跌破千元：消费端VS投资端的割裂 截至5月16日，周生生、周大福等品牌金饰价格已回落至978-995元/克区间，较4月高点下跌超10%。 | 合 今日金价 手机版 港澳及海外版 | | CHOW TAI FOOK | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周 大 福 | | | 首页 | 全部商品 | 婚嫁 CTF for YOU定制 | 企业务 | | | | 今日金价 | | | | | 更新于2025年05月16日 09:36:01 | | | | ギ) | 居等 (饰品、工艺品类) | 981 | | | 零售金价 | 投资黄金类 | 89 | | | (半) | 黄金增值服务金价 | 8୧ | | | 黄金增值服务 | ( 金条、金章不作增值服务) | | | | | 黄金回收服务金价 | 72 | | | 黄金回收服务 | | | 资料来源： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of gold from a commodity to a quasi-currency, driven by global economic shifts and increasing demand for gold as a strategic reserve amid a changing financial landscape [1][5][13]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The history of gold is marked by significant events that reflect crises in the credit system, such as the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, which initiated the first major bull market for gold [3][5]. - The second bull market for gold began after the 9/11 attacks, as global financial instability led to a significant increase in gold prices, demonstrating its role as a "crisis barometer" [4][5]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - The current economic environment is characterized by a long-term decline in the Kondratiev wave, with rising sovereign debt levels in countries like Japan and Italy, and the U.S. facing unprecedented debt monetization challenges [6][7]. - The shift in global power dynamics, with China and the U.S. holding significant shares of global GDP, is contributing to the erosion of the dollar's dominance as a single global currency [6][7]. Group 3: Demand for Gold - In 2023, emerging market central banks accounted for 82% of global gold purchases, a significant increase from 2018, indicating a growing demand for gold as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy [7][9]. - Predictions suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2028, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and high debt levels [7][9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a contrarian approach, recognizing that market downturns can present buying opportunities, as evidenced by historical data showing an average 18% increase in gold prices within six months after significant dips [9][11]. - Following central bank strategies, particularly China's continuous gold accumulation over 21 months, is recommended for investors to effectively build their positions in gold [9][11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The potential end of the current gold bull market may hinge on three transformative events: a U.S. energy revolution, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, or a restructured global governance system leading to a new super-sovereign currency [13][15]. - Legislative changes, such as Texas's recent law recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, reflect a growing distrust in the dollar and signify a potential shift in monetary policy [13][15].

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry demand has been under pressure, decreasing by 32% year-on-year in Q1 due to high gold prices, reduced consumer demand, and a decline in the number of retail gold stores [1][3] - The average price of gold jewelry in major retail stores has dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable reductions in prices from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook [1] - Despite the decline in gold jewelry demand, total consumer spending on gold jewelry remains relatively stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 7%, amounting to 841 billion yuan (approximately 115 billion USD) [3] Group 2 - Investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged to 124 tons, marking a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 12% increase year-on-year, driven by high gold prices and increased risk aversion due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may face further downward pressure in the short term, with a forecasted price adjustment to 3,150 USD in the next three months, while maintaining a year-end target of 3,600 USD [3] - The World Gold Council attributes the decline in gold jewelry consumption to high prices leading consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as well as a shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products [3]

电商界最新大事，小红书和阿里终于联手了。 双方官宣将开启战略合作，小红书首次对外域开放，其广告笔记内容可直接跳转到淘宝相关店铺，打通从种草到购买的全链路。 仔细看合作内容，小红书似乎放弃了做电商闭环的执念，而阿里也终于获得了期待已久的年轻用户和内容流量。 但表面上看是完美的能力互补背后，两个倔强大厂都在补交学费。 在具体的合作形式中，淘宝天猫和小红书首次开放了UD合作，新增效果广告模式，可以内容投放直接引流至淘宝天猫店铺/商品。这部分广告收入大部分 或属于阿里。 01 薛定谔的流量，幸福的烦恼 作为新晋热门大厂，过去几年每隔一段时间，就会有关于小红书的坊间传闻，搜索流量吊打度娘，种草笔记转化如何高等等，不久前，小红书更是天降富 贵，迎来了一大波海外流量。 目前小红书日活已经达到3亿，坐拥庞大流量的同时，其商业化一直不温不火，除了广告，从电商到直播、短视频，小红书似乎都没有找到适合自己的流 量货币化道路。 这就很尴尬，动不动流量爆发，但最后流量去哪了，谁也说不清楚，活脱脱的"薛定谔流量"。眼看陷入同样境遇的B站已经通过三谋换道超车，小红书商 业化必然很焦虑。 今年3月，小红书启动了出海电商，招募了第一批出海卖家 ...

comScore (SCOR) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants John Tinker - VP - Investor RelationsJon Carpenter - CEOMary Margaret Curry - CFO Operator Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Comscore First Quarter twenty twenty five Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on y ...