Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the resumption of Sino - US economic and trade meetings, mild market risk - aversion demand, unexpectedly strong growth of the US Q2 GDP, rebound of core PCE, and the largest increase in ADP employment in July since March, the US dollar index and Treasury yields are boosted, suppressing precious metal prices. Gold has fallen below the $3300/ounce mark since July 1st. As the tariff situation becomes clear and a series of important US data are released, for gold, it is advisable to gradually buy at low prices and lay out long - term positions; for silver, affected by the fading of the commodity rally sentiment, it may fluctuate in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, so the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, London gold spot rose 0.3% to $3326.07/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.1% to $38.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.0% to $3380.50/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $38.15/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 773.78 yuan/gram, AG2510 remained unchanged at 9192 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 769.42 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.1% to 9158 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the spread of gold between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 4.36 yuan/gram (up 13.0%), the spread of silver between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 34 yuan/kilogram (up 25.9%), the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was 5.46 yuan/gram (up 11.4%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 634 yuan/kilogram (down 0.7%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 84.18 (up 0.3%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 88.61 (up 2.2%), AU2512 - 2510 was 1.98 yuan/gram (down 8.3%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 21 yuan/kilogram (up 5.0%) [3]. Position Data - As of July 22, 2025 (weekly data), compared with July 28, on July 29, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 956.23 tons, the silver ETF - SLV rose 0.09% to 15173.91673 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions rose 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions rose 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver rose 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions fell 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions rose 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 7.03% to 33462 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory rose 0.27% to 1208094 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.35% to 38166532 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.12% to 502296559 ounces [3]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate fell 0.10% to 7.14, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.92, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.28% to 3.86%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.81% to 4.34%, the VIX rose 6.32% to 15.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 6370.86, and NYMEX crude oil rose 3.39% to 69.25 [3]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP increased 1.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 1.2% [3]. - The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, the largest increase since March, exceeding the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - Trump said that India will pay 25% tariffs and fines starting from August 1st due to its procurement from Russia [3]. - The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%; the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3%; the preliminary rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, lower than the expected 1.5% [3]. - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations [3].

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月30日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求继续回落；美国经济 滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，中美"建设性会谈"后暂时维持关税休战，未宣布重大突破。美国 与欧盟达成协议避免了贸易战，将征收15%关税。③货币属性方面，美联储本月决议预计将维持利率不变，因经济数据好坏参半。 美国6月商品贸易逆差降至近两年来最低，或助推第二季GDP大幅反弹。欧洲央行维持利率不变，乐观经济预测引发降息结束猜测 。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏弱利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥晚间有美国 ADP、GDP等重磅数据及凌晨美联储决议，数据超预期概率较大，建议提前做好风险管理。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | ...

| 贵金属日评20250730: 美国财政部或待利率下降后再增发长债,待美国GDP和就业等数据 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 收盘价 | 774. 78 | 771. 44 | 792. 90 | -3. 34 | -21.46 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 219932.00 | 286795. 00 | -36, 087. 00 | 256019.00 | -66, 863. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 222387.00 | 212407.00 | 209675.00 | 2, 732. 00 | -9, 980. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 31263.00 | 30258.00 | 28857.00 | 2, 406. 00 | 1,00 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-30 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.49 %，报 774.32 元/克，沪银涨 0.46 %，报 9234.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.09 %， 报 3384.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.25 %，报 38.38 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.34%，美元指数报 98.90 ； 市场展望： 昨夜公布的美国经济数据弱势，市场对于联储下半年宽松货币政策预期上升，金银价格得到支 撑。 关键的劳动力市场数据方面，美国 6 月 JOLTs 职位空缺数为 743.7 万人，低于预期的 750 万人 以及前值的 771.2 万人。房地产市场方面，美国 5 月 S&P/CS 20 座大中城市房价指数同比值为 2.79%，低于预期的 3%以及前值的 3.42%，季调后环比值为-0.34%，低于预期的-0.2%以及前值 的-0.31%。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，市场预期联储在本周议息会议中有 96. ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Silver prices have surpassed $39 per ounce, reaching a new high since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of 35.11% [1] - Domestic silver futures also rose, with the Shanghai silver main contract hitting 9453 yuan per kilogram, a three-year peak [1] - Gold prices have maintained high volatility, with international spot gold exceeding $3354 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 27% [1] - The surge in silver prices is driven by industrial demand in the renewable energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic components [1] Group 2: Long-term Bullish Outlook for Precious Metals - Macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar are key drivers for precious metals [2] - The market expects a potential 50-100 basis point rate cut cycle starting in 2025, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [2] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a significant increase in gold ETF holdings, rising by 327.73% in July [2] - Silver's dual nature as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal enhances its resilience in the market [2] Group 3: Trading Cost Optimization by Jinseng Precious Metals - Jinseng Precious Metals has implemented a cost control mechanism that reduces trading costs to 30% below the industry average through a combination of spread discounts, zero commissions, and instant rebates [3] - For example, high-frequency traders can save $25 per trade using their dynamic spread model, potentially saving thousands annually [3] - The platform's technology allows for millisecond order execution, ensuring precise triggering of stop-loss and take-profit orders during critical market movements [3] Group 4: Dynamic Allocation Strategies for Gold and Silver - The current gold-silver ratio remains above 80, indicating significant potential for silver to catch up with gold [4] - Technical analysis suggests that silver may retrace to a support level of $37.3 after breaking $39, while gold has strong support around $3300 [4] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "gold as a base + silver as an enhancement" strategy, utilizing low spread contracts for long-term gold positioning and leveraging silver for short-term gains [4] Group 5: Importance of Precious Metals in Economic Uncertainty - In the context of a "low growth, high volatility" global economy, precious metals are increasingly viewed as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [6] - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a comprehensive ecosystem that combines cost optimization, technological empowerment, and compliance assurance for investors [6] - The upcoming shift in Federal Reserve policy may trigger a new upward trend in the precious metals market, prompting investors to adjust their holdings dynamically to seize historic opportunities [6]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月29日16时52分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.24%，沪银主力收跌0.33%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求继续回落；美 国经济滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，中美开启新一轮贸易会谈，或延长关税休战。美国与欧盟达 成协议避免了贸易战，将征收15%关税。③货币属性方面，美联储本月决议预计将维持利率不变，因经济数据好坏参半。美国上周 初请失业金人数创三个月新低，6月新屋销售小幅增长。欧洲央行维持利率不变，乐观经济预测引发降息结束猜测。目前市场预期 美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益上行承压；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反 弹承压，人民币偏弱利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is undergoing a structural change, with silver prices rising by 20% and platinum by 36% in the first half of 2025, surpassing gold's increase [1] - Young consumers are increasingly favoring silver and platinum over gold due to rising gold prices, with platinum jewelry sales seeing a significant uptick [1][3] - Banks are expanding their precious metals offerings, with products like silver bars and jewelry being introduced to attract consumers [1] Group 2 - There is a surge in demand for silver consumer products, with sales of investment silver bars and silver ingots increasing by over 40% year-on-year [2] - The popularity of silver investment products is reflected in the high number of reservations for silver coin sets, indicating strong consumer interest [2] - Platinum prices have also seen a significant rise, with a 45% increase in daily sales of platinum jewelry since June, driven by younger consumers seeking design and value [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the gold price is under pressure due to the US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July. However, due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and wait and see for silver [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, London gold spot dropped 0.5% to $3340.32/ounce, London silver spot dropped 1.9% to $38.33/ounce, COMEX gold dropped 0.6% to $3340.10/ounce, COMEX silver dropped 2.2% to $38.45/ounce, AU2508 dropped 0.3% to 772 yuan/gram, AG2508 dropped 1.9% to 9190 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) dropped 0.3% to 771.11 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) dropped 1.9% to 9185 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed by - 41.8%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed by 66.7%, the gold cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by 84.6%, the silver cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by - 1.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, the CONEX gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, AU2512 - 2508 changed by 7.8%, and AG2512 - 2508 changed by - 4.3% [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.15% to 15230.42858 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions increased 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 30258 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 1.77% to 1208269 kg. On July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.39% to 37762394 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.51% to 500320749 ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate increased 0.07% to 7.15, the US dollar index increased 0.19% to 97.67, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.91%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.68% to 4.40%, the VIX decreased 2.99% to 14.93, the S&P 500 increased 0.40% to 6388.64, and MANEX decreased 1.65% to 65.07 [3]. 3.6 Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing the precious metal prices. But due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term [3]. - **Long - term**: There is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3].

南华贵金属日报: 收低位十字形 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月29日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场弱势整理，伦敦金银皆收低位十字形，美指大涨，10Y美债收益率走升利空贵金属估值。周 边美股偏强，欧股下跌，中国股市震荡，比特币震荡，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数下跌。最终COMEX黄金 2508合约收报3314美元/盎司，-0.65%；美白银2509合约收报于38.33美元/盎司，-0.09%。 SHFE黄金 2510主力合约774.78元/克，-0.33%；SHFE白银2510合约收9212元/千克，-1.71%。欧美虽达成贸易协 议，但其中欧盟的妥协被解读为将损害欧洲经济，引发欧元大跌美指大涨。今日重点关注中美7月27日至30 日在瑞典的经贸会谈。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期略波动。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为96.9%，降息25个 基点的概率为3.1%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为35.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为62.6%，累计降 息50个基点的概率为2.0%；美联储10月维持利率不变的 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-29 贵金属 钟俊轩 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au(T+D) | 元/克 | 771.58 | 773.61 | -2.03 | -0.26% | Ag(T+D) | 元/千克 | 9186.00 | 9372.00 | -186.00 | -1.98% | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3305.25 | 3343.50 | -38.25 | -1.14% | 伦敦银 | 美元/盎司 | 38.13 | 38.74 | -0.61 | -1.57% | | SPDR黄金ETF持 | 吨 | 956.23 | 957.09 | -0.86 | -0.09% | SLV银ETF持 | 吨 | 15159.79 | 15230.43 | -70.64 | -0.46% | | 有量 | | | | | | 有量 | | | | ...