Group 1 - The global trade situation is tense as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that the deadline will not be extended [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement on July 27, where the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, while some countries have yet to reach agreements with the U.S. [1][2] - The EU has made significant concessions, including a commitment to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products [2] Group 2 - The U.S. is negotiating with Japan, which has agreed to invest $550 billion in exchange for a 15% "preferential" tax rate and increased imports of U.S. rice by 75% [2] - Other countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have accepted a 19% tariff threshold, while Vietnam has secured a 20% tariff threshold by offering zero tariffs on U.S. goods [2] - The U.K. is expected to receive a minimum tax rate of 10%, but details are still pending final agreement between the two countries [3] Group 3 - Ongoing negotiations with countries like South Korea and India are challenging due to the pressure from U.S. tariff policies on their domestic economies [3] - A new round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled in Stockholm, with key officials from both sides participating [3] Group 4 - Optimism from easing trade tensions has led to record highs in U.S. stock markets, while European markets have also reached their highest levels since early June [4] - Despite the market rally, concerns remain about the long-term impact of high tariffs on U.S. consumers and the competitive position of EU exporters [4] - Morgan Stanley notes that while the market has not collapsed, there is a 40% probability of economic slowdown due to trade issues, especially if further tariffs are imposed [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement by 50 days, expressing disappointment over Putin's continuation of the war [1] - Trump has threatened severe economic sanctions against Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine, which has heightened the urgency for sanctions as Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities [1] - The market is reacting sensitively to these developments, with concerns over potential chain reactions from sanctions, including energy price volatility, trade disruptions, and increased geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - Russia, as a significant global energy exporter, has its situation impacting the energy market notably, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.06% to $66.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.01% to $68.47 per barrel [1] - The Russian Finance Ministry has reported that due to weak oil export prices, Russia's oil and gas revenue is expected to lose 4.47 trillion rubles by 2025, highlighting the uncertainty in the energy market and Russia's economic dependence on energy exports [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, but warns that trade tensions could overshadow this outlook, influenced by Trump's sanctions policy and trade agreements between the U.S. and EU [2] - The EU has reached a trade agreement with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the U.S., while the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and other countries, increasing global market uncertainty [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the UK economy's growth may be hindered by high household savings rates and global trade tensions [1] Economic Growth Risks - Economic growth continues to face downside risks due to tighter financial conditions than expected [1] - Increased precautionary savings by households may suppress the rebound in private consumption, slowing down economic recovery [1] Global Trade Uncertainty - Ongoing global trade uncertainties could pressure the UK economy by weakening global economic activity, disrupting supply chains, and suppressing private investment [1] Inflation Pressures - Significant increases in commodity prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The progress of the US - EU tariff agreement eases trade tensions, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. The drop in US initial jobless claims to 217,000 strengthens the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates. The breakdown of cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East provides some support, while domestic gold prices are pressured by both the decline in international gold prices and the strengthening of the RMB [3]. - Copper: The "anti - involution" affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as there is no significant capacity to be eliminated on the supply side, and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has a long cycle with low initial copper demand. Also, the increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions [13]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are positive, boosting sentiment. Low inventory continues to support aluminum prices, and SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For alumina, the short - term trend is mainly driven by sentiment, and it may fluctuate, with a risk of significant correction if the fundamentals change. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by high scrap aluminum prices and weak demand [33][34][35]. - Zinc: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, SHFE zinc fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yarlung River Dam project may bring some demand growth [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supply is expected to be loose with narrowing demand and is likely to decline. Nickel pig iron trading has improved, and stainless steel lacks upward momentum. Sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel pig iron and large - scale production cuts [78]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices is due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but its fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, with the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weakening demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the support [93]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market for lithium ore and lithium salts is actively traded, and industry profits are improving. Cost support is strengthened by rising ore prices, but price fluctuations have increased [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Market sentiment is hot, and both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Influencing Factors**: Trade agreements, US economic data, Middle East situation, and RMB exchange rate affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term slightly stronger, mid - term potential risks [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show a decline, and the trading volume and positions have certain trends [14]. - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have changed [17]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and copper concentrate TC remains unchanged [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper warehouse receipts and inventories have different changes [30][31]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic support, low inventory support, and short - term high - level fluctuations [33]. - **Alumina**: High operating capacity, slow inventory accumulation, tight spot supply, and short - term sentiment - driven [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High cost, weak demand, and price following SHFE aluminum [35]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Include prices of various contracts, spreads between different contracts, and basis data [36][41]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts and inventories have changed [58]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: High - level fluctuations under "anti - involution" sentiment, with supply gradually becoming surplus and demand weak [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts have declined, and spreads between different contracts have changed [63]. - **Spot Data**: Spot zinc prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have certain trends [69]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventories have increased [74]. Nickel - **Industry Outlook**: Nickel ore supply is loose, nickel pig iron trading improves, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales [78]. - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts have changed, and trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts have corresponding trends [79]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and downstream products, as well as profit margins of related production [84][86][88]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The rise is due to sector - wide influence, with short - term upward pressure greater than support [93]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts have declined, and spot tin prices and related products have also decreased [94][97]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts have increased, while LME tin inventory remains unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Active spot trading, improving industry profits, and strengthening cost support [103]. - **Futures Price Data**: Prices of various lithium carbonate futures contracts have increased, and spreads between different contracts have changed [103]. - **Spot Data**: Prices of lithium ore and lithium salts have risen, and the spreads between different products have also changed [106]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange and social inventories of lithium carbonate have different changes [110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: Hot market sentiment, significant price fluctuations in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, and investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices are stable, futures prices have increased slightly, and basis and spreads have changed [113][114]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components, as well as production and inventory data of industrial silicon [120][121][127][133][140].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the record surge in the U.S. stock market, major Wall Street firms are advising clients to purchase inexpensive hedging tools to guard against potential downturns, citing various risk events that could impact the market's strong performance [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Sentiment - The S&P 500 index has risen by 28% since April 8, with the Wall Street fear index (VIX) dropping to its lowest level since February [1]. - The current market environment has led to the lowest hedging costs since January, providing investors with affordable protection opportunities [4][5]. - Analysts indicate that while technical and fundamental signals remain optimistic, Wall Street's cautious stance reflects institutional investors' concerns about the market's high levels [4]. Group 2: Recommendations from Wall Street Firms - Wall Street strategists are unanimously recommending clients to increase market protection, as the cost of hedging against a 10% decline in the S&P 500 has reached its lowest level since January [5]. - Goldman Sachs' trading department has noted that the market is making it very easy to rent hedging tools for those feeling anxious [5]. - Bank of America’s John Tully has suggested that it is time to buy volatility, recommending clients purchase S&P 500 put options expiring on August 22, which would cover much of the market reaction during the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole [5]. Group 3: Upcoming Risk Events - Several significant events that could impact market trends are set to occur in the next two weeks, including: 1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 30, which could trigger significant volatility based on any policy direction hints [7]. 2. The deadline for tariffs set by President Trump, with ongoing negotiations with key partners like Mexico and Canada still unresolved, potentially reigniting trade tensions [7]. 3. The July non-farm payroll report, which will significantly influence the Fed's policy in the coming months [7]. 4. Key earnings reports from major tech companies, including Nvidia, which could have a substantial impact on market performance [7]. - JPMorgan's equity derivatives sales team has advised clients to purchase put options expiring on August 1 to hedge against potential market drops due to the tariff deadline and the non-farm payroll report [7].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that a swift resolution to trade tensions would alleviate some uncertainty in the market [1] Group 1 - The resolution of trade tensions is seen as a potential factor that could stabilize economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, indicated that a swift resolution to trade tensions could enhance market sentiment and economic activity [1] Group 1 - The potential resolution of trade tensions is seen as a catalyst for improving market conditions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a direct link between trade stability and economic performance [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair continues to rise, breaking the 1.1700 level, driven by recent positive sentiment towards the Euro amidst trade tensions affecting the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Tensions - Ongoing trade instability has put selling pressure on the US dollar, with the market closely watching upcoming speeches from Jerome Powell and the European Central Bank (ECB) [2]. - The worsening trade situation has led to concerns over global trade conflicts, with potential tariffs on European exports and imports from Japan and South Korea, prompting investors to seek safety in the dollar [3]. - The EU is considering broad "counter-coercion" measures in response to US tariffs, which could target US services or limit access to public tenders if no agreement is reached by the August 1 deadline [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Divergence - The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting revealed a split among committee members regarding immediate rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until the inflation impact of new tariffs is clearer [4]. - The rise in US consumer prices in June has reinforced Powell's cautious stance, while the ECB has lowered its deposit rate and indicated that new stimulus measures will depend on clearer signs of weak external demand [5]. Group 3: Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased bullish bets on the Euro, raising net long positions to approximately 128.2K contracts, the highest level since December 2023 [6]. - Commercial traders have increased their net short positions to about 184.2K contracts, marking the highest level in several months, with open interest rising for the fourth consecutive week to over 820K contracts, the highest since March 2023 [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - For the Euro/USD to continue its upward trajectory, it needs to break above the July 1 high of 1.1830, targeting the peak of 1.1852 from June 2018 [8]. - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 could lead to a decline towards the transitional 55-day moving average of 1.1485, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 from May 29, and ultimately the psychologically significant level of 1.1000 [8]. Group 5: Momentum Indicators - Current momentum indicators show a moderate trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising close to 57, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 22, indicating a lack of strong confidence in the current trend [9]. Group 6: Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, combined with the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, suggests that the Euro may face challenges in regaining its previous strength [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices are influenced by market sentiment driven by tariff policies, with gold and silver showing mixed performance amid ongoing uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Precious metal prices have shown slight divergence, with gold experiencing repeated fluctuations and silver showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to strong commodity prices [1]. - The London gold price has been oscillating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce since late April, with reduced demand for gold as a safe haven due to the cooling international trade situation and U.S. fiscal expansion [2]. - The U.S. dollar's recent decline has supported gold prices, with New York gold surpassing the $3400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the net long positions in gold have remained around 31%, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which support gold demand [3]. - Kitco Metals highlighted that the recent strong performance of gold was catalyzed by a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, creating an ideal environment for gold price increases [4]. - Concerns over rising U.S. debt continue to bolster interest in gold, as it is seen as a hedge against uncertainty in the current market conditions [3][4].