Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated from historical highs due to a rebound in the US dollar and improved global risk sentiment, but the downside potential for gold remains limited due to concerns over a potential US government shutdown and strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a strong reversal with gold prices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs, indicating robust buying sentiment [3] - Despite the strong upward movement, there are signs of stagnation at high levels, suggesting a potential short-term decline in momentum and a shift towards a consolidation phase [3][4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4300-4320, with significant support at 4245-4230, which could guide trading strategies [3] Technical Analysis - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to the market's reaction to various fundamental factors, with a focus on the importance of recognizing trends and managing risk in a highly fluctuating environment [4][6] - The presence of speculative trading and the behavior of institutional investors are critical in understanding current market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [7][8] Trading Strategy - Recommendations suggest focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of the risks associated with chasing prices at high levels [3][10] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with attention needed on key price levels to determine potential breakout or breakdown scenarios [10]

Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis - Market concerns about trade tensions have eased, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the softening of the US President's trade stance, along with the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans, has boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, the black metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be bullish [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as coal and gas, airport shipping, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen. The acceleration of domestic economic growth, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Monday. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, down 1.63%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11742 yuan/kilogram, down 3.99%. Spot gold broke through the record high of last Friday, driven by the expectation of further US interest rate cuts and continuous hedging demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable for short - term bulls to continue holding or reducing positions on rallies, and to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel market continued to be weak, and market trading volume remained low. The overall economic downward pressure is still large, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The real demand for steel is still weak, but it improved slightly last week. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption increased by 139 tons. Supply is likely to decline further as steel mill profits narrow. There is no trending market in the steel market, with upward movement restricted by the supply - demand pattern and downward movement supported by costs. In the short term, the upward and downward space is limited [4]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore both weakened. The molten iron output has been declining for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high level of 240 tons. The logic of compressed steel mill profits continues, and molten iron output is expected to decline further. Steel mill raw material replenishment has temporarily ended. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 tons week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 253.77 tons last week. It is advisable to take a bearish view on iron ore prices in the later stage [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebounded slightly. The output of five major steel products has declined for two consecutive weeks, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices continue to be weak. The national capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and daily output increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. The price of 75B silicon iron tendered by Hebei Steel in October decreased compared with the previous round. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was weak. Supply is in the capacity - release period, with plans for capacity release in the fourth quarter, maintaining a loose supply pattern. Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document yet, and the price is dragged down by supply - side contradictions in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Glass - On Monday, the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. Although there is some policy support, overall demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is advisable to conduct short - term range operations [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US dollar declined last week due to dovish remarks from Powell, increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the alleviation of fiscal risk concerns in Japan and France. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has exacerbated the global copper shortage, supporting futures prices. However, the suspension is temporary, and production will resume in the middle of next year. Next year is a year of high copper supply, with an expected output growth rate of 5% (optimistic estimate) or 3% (neutral estimate), and the growth rate will fall below 2% after 2027. There is also a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected, and social inventory is at a relatively high level. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, and demand is facing challenges. US copper inventory is high, restricting future import demand. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [8]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The outer market is stronger than the inner market, resulting in a low internal - external price difference, which supports the inner market. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are not good, with slow de - stocking of social inventory and high aluminum rod inventory. London aluminum inventory has decreased recently, and overseas demand is not good. If institutions continue to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses, it will support aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [9]. Tin - On the supply side, Indonesia has transferred six previously seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise, which plans to increase refined tin output. However, the crackdown on illegal tin mining and the adjustment of the mining approval cycle have exacerbated the global tin shortage in the short term. After the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan ended, the smelting start - up rate returned to over 50%. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder remains low, and the improvement in downstream and terminal orders is limited. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and photovoltaic demand has declined. Tin prices are at a historical high, which suppresses physical demand. Weekly inventory decreased by 769 tons to 7017 tons. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 0.05%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong demand in the peak season and continuous de - stocking of social inventory. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.88%. Weekly production reached a new high, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large manufacturers [11]. Polysilicon - On Monday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November, bringing selling pressure. The current situation of high supply and low demand continues. Attention should be paid to the implementation of storage purchase news and the support of spot prices [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tensions, oil prices declined slightly. The long - expected supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the tanker carrying capacity has reached a recent high. Oil prices will continue to test the lower support in the near future [14]. Asphalt - As oil prices continue to test the lower support, asphalt also has the risk of breaking through the support level. The basis remains low, and the actual shipping volume is low. The pressure of factory inventory accumulation continues, and social inventory is being depleted in the East China region. Profits have recovered slightly, and production has increased significantly, leading to an increase in supply pressure. In the later stage, oil prices will be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt may face challenges due to increased inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of crude oil costs [14]. PX - Due to the continuous decline of crude oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices have followed the downward trend. Although the high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support, PX is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in October due to the overall decline of the polyester sector [14]. PTA - Driven by the decline of crude oil prices, the overall energy and chemical sector has declined. Downstream start - up rates are low, orders are scarce, and terminal start - up rates are below the historical average. PTA processing fees have declined, and port and factory inventories are accumulating. The basis has decreased, and short - term trading should focus on short - selling on rallies [15]. Ethylene Glycol - After breaking through the previous low, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded. With the expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream, ethylene glycol prices will remain low. Downstream start - up rates are weak, and both overseas and domestic demand are sluggish. In October, inventory will continue to accumulate, and prices will remain low. If oil prices continue to decline, there is still a risk of further decline [15]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber has adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The increase in short - fiber start - up rates has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory depletion depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. In the medium - term, short - selling on rallies may be considered [15]. Methanol - This week, methanol supply has decreased in the short term, and olefin demand remains high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory and an improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure. However, traditional downstream demand is weak, and there are plans for many plants to restart, increasing supply pressure. High inventory and external factors such as tariff upgrades restrict price increases. Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. PP - The supply growth rate of the PP market continues to be higher than demand, and inventory levels are high, putting pressure on the market. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, expanding the downward price space. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [17]. LLDPE - This week, the supply of polyethylene has increased, and inventory has accumulated significantly, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, with the start - up rate and orders of agricultural film improving, but the overall downstream start - up rate is still slow to increase. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, and the polyethylene market will be under pressure in the short term [17]. Urea - The daily output of urea is between 18.1 - 19.1 tons. Industrial procurement is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering after rainfall. Exports are shrinking after the window period closes. The market is cautious, and purchases are mainly made at low prices. The short - term market may be stable after a period of stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline in the later stage [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The release of USDA reports has been postponed, and concerns about Sino - US soybean trade continue, making the export prospects of US soybeans unclear. However, domestic crushing consumption provides some support. The new - season harvest situation of US soybeans is unknown. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the weather conditions in the core production areas of Argentina are good. The CBOT soybean market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Sino - US soybean trade [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic downstream phased replenishment has increased, and soybean meal inventory has decreased significantly. As of October 17, 2025, soybean inventory in major oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, while soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Apparent consumption of soybean meal increased significantly. Currently, oil mill profits are generally in the red, increasing their willingness to support spot prices. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, there may be a supply gap before the new - season South American soybeans are available in the first quarter of next year. After the short - term over - decline, soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. Rapeseed meal supply is tight due to low factory start - up rates, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing slightly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil has entered the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. The inverted price difference between domestic and foreign soybean and palm oil provides some consumption expectations. The basis of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang has increased. For rapeseed oil, before the supply of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of Russian oil increases, the de - stocking market supports the stability of the spot basis. As of October 17, 2025, soybean oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased [20]. Palm Oil - A large amount of palm oil arrived in China last week, and the arrival is concentrated recently, leading to an increase in commercial inventory. Malaysian palm oil exports have increased at a slower rate. As of October 17, 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [20][21]. Corn - The bumper harvest of corn in the Northeast and North China has come onto the market. The harvest weather is not conducive to storage, and farmers are eager to sell due to profitable prices, causing a significant seasonal impact on the market. Currently, corn trading at the grassroots level and ports is light, and the willingness of channels and downstream feed mills to build long - term inventories is still weak. However, the current price is close to the planting cost, and high - quality corn is in short supply. As the temperature drops, farmers may be more reluctant to sell, which will slow down the price decline [21]. Pigs - After the festival, the process of reducing production and inventory has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low this year, resulting in widespread losses in breeding profits. Recently, the price difference between fat and lean pigs and some regional restocking have supported the market, increasing the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and pressuring the market. Large - scale farms plan to increase the pace of slaughter, but supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the extreme downward risk of pig prices. The far - month futures are slightly at a premium. Unless there is a significant increase in demand beyond the seasonal norm, it is difficult for pig prices to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather on pig farming in North China this year [22].

Core Insights - The dollar experienced a slight increase against the yen as investors redirected their attention to political developments in Japan and the euro area while concerns regarding U.S. credit risk persisted [1] Group 1 - The dollar edged up against the yen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Political developments in Japan and the euro area are influencing market dynamics [1] - Ongoing concerns about U.S. credit risk are affecting investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices reached a historic high of $54.49 per ounce, the highest level since 1980, but subsequently retreated as traders shifted from strong buying to weak buying [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2019, available silver stocks in London have plummeted by 76%, leading to a rare and costly short squeeze [2]. - The recent surge in silver prices was driven by significant investment flows, increasing physical shortages, and escalating geopolitical risks [4]. - The available "free float" of silver has decreased from 850 million ounces in 2019 to 200 million ounces last week, indicating a structural deficit and ongoing supply shortages [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December are expected to provide long-term support for the silver market [3][5]. - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and new credit pressures reported by regional banks have boosted investor demand for precious metals [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with silver benefiting from its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [5]. - The intensifying trade tensions may reduce industrial demand for silver, particularly amid a global manufacturing slowdown [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Price Outlook - Silver remains in a bullish trend, but correction risks are rising, with $49.81 identified as the first major support level [11]. - If the price fails to hold above this support, it could trigger broader profit-taking, potentially dragging prices down to $44.22 or even $41.40 [11]. - The recent price action indicates that unless new catalysts emerge, silver's upward movement may be hindered by gold's recent pullback [8].

美股市场风格突变。 在多重不确定因素的扰动下，美股市场本周遭遇动荡，恐慌指数VIX周五盘中直线拉升，一度飙升至28.99，创出今年 4月底以来的最高水平。 有分析认为，市场波动加剧的主要原因是贸易紧张局势的再度升级，贸易问题仍将是下周市场的关键因素之一。 另外，美联储的降息路径也持续影响金融市场，投资者预期，美联储将在10月议息会议上再次降息25个基点。根据日 程安排，美联储将于10月21日举办支付创新会议，汇聚行业专家讨论稳定币、人工智能和代币化。美联储还将于10月 24日举行公开会议，讨论压力测试的改革问题。 美股的重大考验 在贸易政策不确定性上升、区域性银行"爆雷"、AI泡沫质疑加剧的背景下，美股市场本周遭遇剧烈动荡。 美东时间周五，衡量市场波动性的芝商所（CBOE）恐慌指数VIX一度飙升至28.99，创出今年4月底以来的最高水平。 尽管收盘时回落至了21附近，但依然位于年内高位。 恐慌指数VIX，通过计算标普500指数期权的隐含波动率，以反映市场对未来30天波动性的预期。据CBOE全球市场数 据，投资者正大量买入VIX飙升至47.5和50时可获利的期权合约。 GammaRoad资本合伙公司首席投资官J ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including escalating trade tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Market Volatility - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 28.99, the highest level since April, indicating increased market anxiety [2][4]. - Investors are buying options that profit when VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting a growing concern about market volatility [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by high valuations, necessitates caution regarding new risk triggers [6][7]. Trade Tensions - The resurgence of trade tensions is identified as a primary factor contributing to market volatility, with President Trump indicating that proposed additional tariffs are "unsustainable" [7]. - The Trump administration is reportedly adjusting its tariff policies, including granting exemptions for numerous products amid ongoing trade negotiations [7]. Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting various federal departments, leading to potential economic implications [7]. - The shutdown has halted the release of official economic data, making upcoming corporate earnings reports critical for assessing the health of the US economy [8]. Federal Reserve Meetings - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a payment innovation meeting on October 21, focusing on topics such as stablecoins and the integration of traditional and decentralized finance [10]. - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with a 94% chance of cumulative cuts by December [10][11]. Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major companies, including Tesla and Netflix, are set to release earnings reports, which will provide insights into corporate profitability amid the current economic climate [8].

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific content related to a company or industry [1]

Market Overview - Markets recovered from last Friday's selling, with the Nasdaq and Russell both closing about 2.5% higher, the S&P adding 1.75%, and the Dow increasing by 1.5% [1] - All 11 sectors showed positive performance, with communications rallying 2.6%, real estate up 3.4%, and technology closing more than 2% higher [1] Gold Market - Gold futures climbed from 4,000 on Monday to nearly 4,400 on Friday, closing the week more than 5% higher [2] Trade Tensions - Renewed trade tensions between the US and China contributed to market volatility, with President Trump downplaying the addition of 100% tariffs on China and China responding with sanctions against US shipping units [3][4] Earnings Season - JP Morgan Chase reported a revenue jump to 47 billion, while Goldman Sachs also posted strong earnings, although both closed lower for the week [5] - Citigroup saw a rally of 3.3% due to strong dealmaking and trading revenue, while Wells Fargo jumped 7.3% after raising targets for returns on common equity [5][6] Regional Banks - Regional banks experienced a sell-off of more than 6% on Thursday after Zion's Bank Corp announced a $50 million charge due to apparent misrepresentations and defaults in loans [6] - However, regional banks rebounded with a 1.6% rally on Friday [7] Upcoming Events - The upcoming CPI report is expected to draw attention to inflation, especially with the government shutdown ongoing [7] - Major companies such as Tesla, IBM, Netflix, and Intel are anticipated to be in the spotlight during the earnings season, along with reports from GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, Texas Instruments, General Motors, and American Airlines [7]

Group 1 - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted concerns over trade tensions and the restructuring of the international trade system, with a focus on the potential risks posed by rapid AI development and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a 3.2% growth in the global economy by 2025, but warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent reconfiguration of trade, negatively impacting global efficiency [1][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with employment data falling below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, it could lead to significant market revaluation and adverse economic impacts [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with the U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].