Group 1 - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may complete three rate cuts by early 2026, following two previous cuts, aligning with market pricing [1] - The median forecast from 40 economists indicates that the RBA will lower the cash rate from the current 3.85% to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2026, entering a policy observation period thereafter [1] - The RBA's easing pace is more cautious compared to central banks in the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, which are also implementing rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Following the RBA's unexpected decision to maintain rates, there is a divergence in market expectations regarding future rate cuts, with some institutions predicting a slowdown in the easing cycle [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, a four-year high, primarily due to stagnant hiring activity, although the annual employment growth rate remains at 2% [3] - Some analysts, including those from major banks, anticipate that the RBA will only implement two more rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [3]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a broader structural shift characterized by persistent deflationary pressures, declining energy demand, and a deteriorating labor market [1][7][11] - Consumer discretionary spending is slowing down, indicating a significant impact on industries such as travel, hospitality, and leisure [1][5][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows a notable weakness in discretionary spending categories, with hotel and motel prices decreasing by 3.7% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a rare deflationary trend, with a net change of -0.1% over four months, and core PPI showing a decline for the first time since June 2020 [2][3] Group 3: Energy Demand Insights - Energy usage data confirms a decline in consumer activity, with gasoline consumption dropping to an average of 8.49 million barrels per day, significantly lower than previous years [4] - Overall oil demand is also reflecting this weakness, with total oil supply averaging around 20.1 million barrels per day, slightly above 2022 levels but below 2023 and 2024 [4] Group 4: Corporate Responses and Market Sentiment - Major hotel chains like Hilton and Wyndham have adjusted their revenue growth forecasts due to slowing consumer travel spending, attributing this to economic uncertainty [5][6] - Airlines such as Delta and Southwest have retracted their financial forecasts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook on consumer behavior [5][6] Group 5: Labor Market Challenges - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and non-farm employment growth slowing to an average of 120,000 per month [7][8] - Real disposable income growth is stagnating, with a reported annualized growth rate of 0.8% in Q2 2025, impacting consumer spending on non-essential items [7][8] Group 6: Market Discrepancies - The U.S. stock market has reached historical highs despite the underlying economic data indicating persistent consumer weakness, suggesting a disconnect between market sentiment and economic reality [9] - The optimism surrounding a potential rebound in consumer spending post-trade uncertainty may be misplaced, as structural issues in the economy are likely to persist [9][10] Group 7: Implications for Policy and Business Strategy - Policymakers may need to reconsider their stance on interest rates in light of the deflationary trends in discretionary sectors, potentially requiring more accommodative measures to stimulate demand [10] - Companies in the hospitality and airline sectors may need to adapt to prolonged periods of weak demand, possibly implementing cost-cutting measures that could further impact consumer confidence [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in China, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth in China has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped by 3.3%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The simultaneous decline in both indices indicates a broader trend of economic tightening [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8]. - The current economic environment is characterized by negative real interest rates, where holding cash is less beneficial compared to leveraging debt to acquire assets [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea illustrate how certain groups managed to maintain or grow their wealth during prolonged deflationary periods [17]. - The article suggests that understanding the importance of savings and adjusting asset allocation strategies is crucial for navigating the current economic transition [17][30]. Group 5: Structural Economic Issues - There is a structural contradiction in the economy where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth and purchasing power [21][22]. - This disparity complicates the resolution of the current economic challenges and may require significant policy changes to redistribute wealth [24]. Group 6: Recommended Asset Strategies - It is advised to maintain a significant portion of household wealth (60% to 80%) in low-risk, stable income-generating assets to weather the deflationary environment [33]. - The focus should be on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns during this period [34].

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][3] - The improvement in CPI indicates a positive signal of demand recovery in the market [1][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in CPI was supported by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [2] - International commodity price fluctuations contributed to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, impacting CPI positively [2] - The increase in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, also played a role in lifting domestic energy prices [2][5] Group 3: Core CPI and Consumer Goods - Core CPI has shown a continuous increase for four months, rising from -0.1% in February to 0.7% in June [3] - Prices of durable consumer goods, such as entertainment products and household textiles, increased by 2.0% year-on-year [3] - The decline in automobile prices has slowed, with fuel and new energy vehicles seeing the smallest price drops in nearly two and a half years [3] Group 4: Food Prices and Their Impact - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [4] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase [4] - The price of beef turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking a shift after previous increases [4] Group 5: PPI Trends and Future Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the industrial sector [4][5] - Factors such as high temperatures and increased rainfall have affected construction progress, contributing to a decline in raw material prices [5] - Analysts expect that with continued macroeconomic policy support, domestic prices may gradually recover, leading to a mild rebound in CPI and a narrowing of PPI declines [6]

这几年，相信大家都能意识到，此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 说一个扎心的数据： 根据机构统计的数据显示，这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币，降到现在的 300 万亿， 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中，居民财富主要流失的份额，大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水，基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 房子的价格为什么会回落？ 你可以说很多的原因，但是最根本的原因只有一个： 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中，有两个关键的数据值得关注： 第一个 是 PPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价，下跌了3.3%； 第二个是 CPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格，下跌3.6%。 这两个指数双双下跌，可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说，通S本身其实并不可怕，对于多数人而言，真正可怕的是： 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S，做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置？ 原因很简单，就是 没有经历过通S 。 这事情其实就和谈恋爱是一样的—— 吃过见过的人，自然能应对自如；没有经历过的人，肯定要交学费。 可以说 过去这40年以来，我们从来没经历过这么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in China, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth in China has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped by 3.3%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The simultaneous decline in both indices indicates a broader trend of economic tightening [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8]. - The current economic environment is characterized by negative real interest rates, where holding cash is less beneficial compared to leveraging debt to acquire assets [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The article draws parallels with historical deflationary periods in other countries, such as Japan in the 1990s and the U.S. during the Great Depression, highlighting the importance of adapting to changing economic conditions [17][18]. - It suggests that understanding the significance of saving and adjusting asset allocation strategies is crucial for navigating the current economic cycle [17]. Group 5: Structural Economic Issues - There is a structural contradiction in the economy where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth and purchasing power [21][22]. - This disparity complicates the resolution of the current economic challenges, which may persist for an extended period [24]. Group 6: Recommended Strategies - To navigate the deflationary environment, it is advised to shift towards low-risk, stable income-generating assets, with a recommendation to hold 60% to 80% of household wealth in cash or similar assets [30][33]. - The focus should be on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns during this period [34].

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's inflation rate has increased in June but remains close to deflation levels, indicating a potential for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates below zero later this year [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The annual inflation rate in Switzerland for June rose by 0.1% compared to the same month last year, while the inflation rate for May was -0.1% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects this slight increase, suggesting a modest recovery in price levels [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to zero last month to curb demand for the Swiss franc [1] - The rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc has negatively impacted demand for Swiss exports, including luxury watches and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 15% against the US dollar, leading to lower prices for imported goods and services [1] - This currency strength has contributed to a downward spiral in inflation rates within Switzerland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in recent years, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: PPI has decreased by 3.3% and CPI has decreased by 3.6%, indicating a tightening economic environment [5][6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8][10]. - The article compares the situation to relationships, suggesting that those who have not experienced deflation are likely to make costly mistakes [9]. Group 4: Characteristics of Deflation - The defining characteristic of a deflationary period is negative real interest rates, where debt can become an asset [12]. - In a deflationary environment, saving money is less advantageous, and leveraging debt to acquire assets can be more profitable [13][14]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Transition - The current economic transition may last 10 to 20 years, similar to historical events in Japan, the U.S., and South Korea [17][18]. - The article highlights the structural issues in wealth distribution, where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth accumulation [21][22][23]. Group 6: Strategies for Navigating Deflation - To navigate deflation, individuals should focus on stable income-generating assets rather than riskier investments [30][31]. - The recommendation is to hold 60% to 80% of household wealth in low-risk, stable income assets to protect against wealth erosion during deflation [33]. Group 7: Future Considerations - Unless significant changes in wealth distribution policies occur, or a major bull market emerges, the focus should remain on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns [32][34].

说一个扎心的数据： 根据机构统计的数据显示，这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币，降到现在的 300 万亿， 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中，居民财富主要流失的份额，大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水，基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 这几年，相信大家都能意识到，此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 房子的价格为什么会回落？ 你可以说很多的原因，但是最根本的原因只有一个： 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中，有两个关键的数据值得关注： 第一个 是 PPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价，下跌了3.3%； 第二个是 CPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格，下跌3.6%。 这两个指数双双下跌，可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说，通S本身其实并不可怕，对于多数人而言，真正可怕的是： 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S，做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置？ 通Z周期最大的特点是什么？ 我认为就一个—— 实际利率为负，负债其实就是资产 。 别看之前通Z的时候银行的利率能高到5%甚至6%，实际上如果你把通胀率算上，每年增加7%-8% 的M ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand asserts that there is no risk of deflation in the economy [1] Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes that inflation remains stable and does not indicate any signs of deflation [1] - Economic indicators suggest a steady growth trajectory, supporting the central bank's position on inflation [1] - The Bank of Thailand plans to monitor economic conditions closely to ensure stability [1]