20 Feb 2026 18:52:13 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | US Economics Weekly IEEPA passes torch to new tariffs CITI'S TAKE The Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA, but the market reaction was limited given this was widely expected. The administration has already begun to reimpose tariffs through alternative authority, and we expect the average effective tariff rate to only fall slightly, if at all. Still, uncertainty is now higher as rates on individual countries and products are yet to be de ...

转自：新华财经 •Comerica Bank：美联储有可能在鲍威尔任期结束前一直维持利率不变 【机构分析】 •Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示，美联储将在鲍威尔的任期于5月结束前保持短期利率不 变。美国经济增长面临的最大下行风险来自劳动力供应瓶颈，这可能会引发通货膨胀的反弹。 •英国投资者正等待英国央行货币政策委员会成员格林、泰勒、皮尔以及行长贝利今晚向议会财政委员 会发表证词。加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师表示，市场将密切关注贝利的言论，以寻找英国央行降息 路径的线索，因为他是委员会中关键的摇摆票。 •市场调查显示，经济学家预测韩国央行将在2月26日会议上维持指标利率在2.50%不变，并预计2026年 全年将保持这一水平。政策制定者正面临韩元贬值压力与房地产市场持续过热的双重挑战。分析师指 出，韩国央行日益关注外汇与房地产风险，且经济复苏基础更为稳固，今年降息的可能性极低。若资产 价格持续走高并传导至房地产市场，央行或需考虑在2027年收紧政策以防范通胀风险。 •日本国债收益率周二跌至数周低点，跟随隔夜美国国债走势；在美国总统特朗普关税政策的不确定性 下，投资者买入避险债券。三井住友信托 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's import tariff policy has led to a decline in global stock markets, while gold and silver prices surged to three-week highs [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's ruling, spot gold prices increased by 1.0% at the end of Friday trading and surged by up to 1.3% on Monday morning, reaching a high of $5,176 per ounce before dropping by $30 [1] - Silver prices rose approximately 3.9% to $87.84 per ounce, marking a two-week high, after a 3.6% increase at the end of Friday [1] Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The Supreme Court's decision is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $2 trillion, as stated by Maya MacGuineas, chair of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget [1] - As of January 2026, the U.S. federal budget deficit was reported at $600 billion, a 20% decrease compared to the same period last year, attributed to higher income tax revenues and tariff measures implemented under Trump's emergency powers [10] - The ruling may also pose a risk of over $175 billion in potential tax refunds, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter GDP annualized growth rate for the U.S. was reported to have dropped significantly to 1.4%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year [10] - RBC Capital Markets indicated that the tariff ruling could alleviate inflation concerns, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve more room to lower interest rates [10] Group 4: International Trade Dynamics - U.S. officials, including trade representative Jamieson Greer, stated that the Supreme Court's ruling would not disrupt existing agreements, although there is significant confusion within the U.S. government regarding trade policies [11] - The European Parliament's trade committee chair, Bernd Lange, expressed concerns over the uncertainty faced by the EU and other U.S. trade partners due to the current situation [11]

For as long as most of us can remember, "fixed income" has meant the same thing to retirees, and it generally appears in the form of safe and predictable bonds that pay out steady interest, all while allowing the preservation of capital. If you bought a 10-year Treasury or corporate bond ladder, you could collect coupons and never worry about principal. Quick Read Bond portfolios dropped 20% in 2022 as rates climbed. This broke traditional fixed income safety assumptions. A 4.06% Treasury yield minus ...

Core Insights - The Supreme Court's ruling against President Trump's tariffs has introduced new uncertainties into U.S. trade policy, debt markets, and the dollar, rather than providing relief [1] - The ruling leaves unresolved issues regarding potential refunds, which could create a financial gap of approximately $170 billion for the U.S. government [1] - Trump's replacement tariffs are lower and may alleviate short-term price pressures, but the overall impact on markets and the economy remains unpredictable [1] Treasury Market Implications - Yields on 10-year Treasuries increased slightly to 4.1%, down from peaks above 4.5%, amid signs of cooling inflation and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The bond market is concerned about increased issuance due to potential refunds and ongoing stimulus bills, which could steepen the yield curve [1] - Analysts suggest that the fiscal deficit may not significantly worry the debt market, as substitutes for tariffs could be found and any additional funding might come from shorter Treasury bills [1] Revenue Uncertainty - The Congressional Budget Office had projected that Trump's tariffs would generate around $300 billion annually over the next decade, but the new 15% replacement tariff is temporary and its implementation details are unclear [1] - The market has not reacted significantly to the ruling, with some analysts believing that longer-lasting fallout can be avoided [1] - The dollar has continued to decline, losing about 0.4% against the euro, with a total drop nearing 12% since the beginning of Trump's second term in early 2025 [1]

Key Takeaways Financial experts say you'll need about 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income to maintain your lifestyle in retirement. For the median U.S. household income ($83,730), you'd need about $5,233 per month in retirement. Using the 4% rule, that means that you'd need to save $1.57 million in total. When preparing for retirement, you're probably wondering, will I have enough? To answer this, you'll need to know a few key numbers. First, how much money will you need per month in retireme ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may cut its target interest rate more than previously anticipated, which would positively impact financial markets and investor sentiment [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts - Futures markets have initially priced in only two quarter-percentage-point cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, which are crucial for boosting stock prices and consumer spending [1]. - Despite pressure from the White House, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has committed to using economic data to guide monetary policy, resulting in no rate cuts in January [2][6]. - Recent trends indicate that inflation is falling faster than expected, which could provide the Fed with the opportunity to implement additional rate cuts beyond the initial two [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown signs of decreasing, with consumer prices rising 2.4% annually in January, slightly below the expected 2.5% [5]. - The core Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [5]. - If the downward trend in inflation continues, it may lead to a third or fourth quarter-percentage-point cut this year, as suggested by some Fed officials [6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could complicate monetary policy, as he aims to cut rates while also reducing the Fed's balance sheet [7]. - Investors may anticipate a more aggressive rate-cutting approach if Warsh is confirmed, given his alignment with President Trump's views [7].

Market Reaction - Investors reacted positively to the Supreme Court ruling, which rejected President Trump's global tariffs, alleviating cost pressures on businesses and reducing concerns about persistent inflation in the U.S. economy [2][4]. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 230.81 points (0.47%) at 49,625.97, the Nasdaq up 203.34 points (0.90%) at 22,886.07, and the S&P 500 up 47.62 points (0.69%) at 6,909.51 [2]. - For the week, the Dow rose 0.25%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.51% [3]. Sector Performance - The technology sector saw gains, with major companies like Alphabet up 4.01%, Netflix up 2.17%, Meta up 1.69%, Apple up 1.54%, and Nvidia up 1.02%. However, Microsoft experienced a slight decline of 0.31% [3]. - Retail stocks also rose in response to the Supreme Court ruling, with Home Depot up 0.97% and Five Below up 1.91% [4]. Economic Data - The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was reported at 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, primarily due to the government shutdown impacting economic growth by approximately 1 percentage point [6]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index remained stable at 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [7].

Economic Growth - The US GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the expected 2.5% [1][7] - For the full year of 2025, the US economy grew at a pace of 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024 [2] Inflation Metrics - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, increased to 2.9% in December, surpassing estimates of 2.7% [4][11] - The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, rose 3% over the past year, indicating inflation reduction efforts have stalled [5] Federal Reserve Policy - Recent economic reports suggest the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to cut interest rates further this year [6] - The disappointing GDP report is expected to prolong disagreements among Fed policymakers regarding interest rate decisions [5] Government Impact - The GDP decline was partially attributed to a government shutdown, which influenced consumer spending and exports [7][10] - Government spending and investment fell by 5.1%, largely due to a 16.6% drop in federal spending during the shutdown [10] Economic Indicators - Despite the slowdown, final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 2.4%, and gross private domestic investment increased by 3.8% [10]

Group 1 - Hungary will block a €90 billion European Union loan for Ukraine until oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline resumes [1] - The Foreign Minister of Hungary, Peter Szijjarto, stated that Ukraine's blockage of oil transit violates the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement [1] - Szijjarto emphasized that Hungary will not succumb to what he termed as "blackmail" from Ukraine [1]