在美联储官员释放强烈信号，称央行距离重启资产负债表扩张"为时不远"后，花旗预测，美联储可能最快12月就会宣布，并在1月实施新一轮国债 购买计划。 美联储官员释放明确信号 纽约联储主席John Williams本周发表讲话，暗示美联储将很快开始扩大资产负债表规模，以缓解资金市场压力。 Williams表示： 基于近期持续的回购市场压力和储备金从充裕转向充足的其他迹象，我预计距离达到充足储备金水平为时不远。 纽约联储本周与华尔街主要银行举行了一场非例行会议，会议的核心议题是向一级交易商（即承销政府债务的银行）征求了对美联储常备回购机 制使用情况的反馈意见。这凸显了官员们对美国货币市场紧张局势的担忧。 衡量短期借贷成本的关键指标持续发出警示信号。三方回购利率本周再度回升，一度比美联储准备金余额利率高出近0.1个百分点。 每月净购买200亿美元即可维持流动性 分析师认为，美联储只需进行相对温和的国债净购买,就能将储备维持在充足区间。 按照当前储备水平每年增长约5%(以维持储备占名义GDP的比率大致不变)，加上流通货币每年增长约5%，意味着SOMA需要每月净增长约200亿 美元。 具体操作上，这意味着美联储将对所有到期 ...

【美联储12月降息预期摇摆 国际金价震荡走高】截至北京时间11月14日11时，现货黄金最高触及 4210.11美元/盎司。周大福足金饰品价格为1333元/克。 近段时间，在经历了高位回调后，国际金价再度走高。分析认为，金价再度上涨的原因主要有两方面： 一是地缘冲突风险再次升温，或支撑避险资产。二是美国政府"停摆"但根本问题仍未解决，或支撑避险 需求。 与此同时，美联储12月是否降息的预期摇摆，也在牵动金价走势。汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明分 析，若在美联储降息的同时，出现了更强力的利空因素（例如通胀意外抬头引发更鹰派的预期，或美元 大幅走强），这些因素若占据主导地位，金价甚至可能逆降息预期而下跌。 多重因素推动金价技术性反弹 来源：中国经营报 根据CME美联储观察工具显示，市场目前预测以数据为导向的美联储在12月年度最后一次会议上降息 的概率已降至稍高于49%。 尽管美联储已正式宣布将于12月1日结束量化紧缩（QT），但近期美国市场流动性持续紧绷，多项指标 已发出明确预警。 "尽管有部分FOMC委员强调数据依赖性的不确定性，但现有数据显示美国经济正在走弱，这为降息提 供了理由。"赵庆明说。 不过，丛红梅认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions and the unresolved issues surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, which are driving demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to create a strong foundation for gold prices due to persistent risk-averse sentiment [2]. - Global liquidity remains abundant, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will end its balance sheet reduction, while many developed countries' central banks are still in a rate-cutting phase, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks worldwide are maintaining a trend of gold purchases, providing stable buying support for the gold market [2]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown and Economic Implications - The U.S. government shutdown has ended temporarily, but core issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding healthcare subsidy provisions, which may sustain risk in the U.S. economy [3]. - The recent passage of a temporary funding bill by the U.S. House of Representatives marks a significant step in ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Market predictions for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased to just above 49%, influenced by recent economic data indicating a weakening U.S. economy [4]. - Despite calls for a rate cut, recent positive employment data and the temporary end of the government shutdown may lead the Fed to maintain current rates while observing the impact of previous cuts [4]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the December rate cut are evident, with some officials expressing caution, suggesting that while a cut may not occur, a dovish stance could be adopted for future considerations [4].

Core Insights - The report by Hanya Investment focuses on the evolution of global trade patterns, central bank interest rate cuts, and policy stimulus, reviewing market performance in Q3 2025 and predicting trends for Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Market Performance Overview - Global markets experienced a broad rally in Q3 2025, driven by the extension of the US-China trade truce, optimism surrounding AI, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 7.8%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 11.2%. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets with a 10.9% rise, led by China's A-shares (+20.8%) and Taiwan (+14.7%), while India saw a decline of 6.6% [7][8] - Fixed income markets showed volatility, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds led with a 4.8% increase [10] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rose by 0.9% but was down 9.9% year-to-date. The Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar performed well, while the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won depreciated significantly [11] Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook indicates differentiated growth, with the US and East Asian economies expected to slow down in Q4 2025 and into H1 2026. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December [2][16] - China's economic growth may decline due to a slowdown in credit growth, with GDP growth targets for 2026 set between 4.5% and 5%. New stimulus policies will focus on consumer subsidies and technology investments [17] - India's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, while ASEAN economies are relying on domestic demand and policy easing to counteract growth slowdowns [2][16] Monetary Policy and Currency Outlook - The monetary policy environment is entering a loosening phase, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue rate cuts and end quantitative tightening. Other Asian central banks, including those in China and India, are also expected to lower rates [21] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3%-5% in 2026, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate moderately. Other Asian currencies are expected to remain weak until a clear trend of dollar depreciation emerges [2][21] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a short-term optimistic stance on risk assets, particularly in emerging and Asian markets, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook. In fixed income, US Treasuries are favored, along with emerging market dollar bonds and Asian credit bonds [3][29] - The report highlights ongoing policy stimulus in Asia, with countries like China, India, and Indonesia implementing measures such as fiscal transfers, tax cuts, and credit support to boost economic recovery [3][17]

智通财经APP注意到，在华尔街日常资金的关键来源——这个规模达12万亿美元的市场中，持续酝酿的 压力正激起越来越多人的呼吁，要求美联储采取更有力的行动来缓解紧张局面。 美国银行、三井日联证券和巴克莱等机构警告称，美联储可能需要采取干预措施，例如增加短期市场贷 款或直接购买证券，向银行体系注入资金，以缓解推高隔夜利率的压力。 道明证券利率策略主管Gennadiy Goldberg表示："鉴于近期的市场压力，美联储似乎在逐步调整资产负 债表政策。一些投资者认为，美联储的行动可能过于缓慢，无法防止准备金变得稀缺。" 近几周以来，一系列关键短期利率持续居高不下，从与隔夜回购协议(以政府债务为抵押的贷款)相关的 基准利率，到美联储自身的关键政策目标利率都是如此。后者在利率决策期间通常保持稳定，但在过去 两个月内已四次在其区间内上升。 一项指标——有担保隔夜融资利率甚至出现了自2020年3月疫情高峰以来、在美联储加息周期之外的最 大单日波动。 尽管美联储降息，短期利率仍面临压力 造成这种紧缩局面的主要原因是美债发行量增加，这从短期市场抽走了现金，导致银行体系中的资金减 少。 持续至周三晚间的政府停摆推迟了本应提振流动性的 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures up 0.01%, S&P 500 futures down 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.20% [1] - European indices displayed varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.65%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.54%, France's CAC40 up 0.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.05% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 0.79% to $58.95 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.73% to $63.17 per barrel [3][4] Economic Events - The US federal government ended a 43-day shutdown after President Trump signed a temporary funding bill, allowing most government agencies to operate until January 30, 2026 [4] - New York Fed officials indicated that the Fed may soon initiate asset purchases to maintain liquidity, citing rising overnight financing costs as a sign of insufficient bank reserves [5] Corporate News - Disney reported better-than-expected Q4 profits, driven by strong performance in streaming and theme parks, and announced a 50% increase in dividends along with a doubling of its stock buyback plan [7] - Pfizer plans to sell its remaining stake in BioNTech, marking the end of a significant partnership that generated substantial revenue during the pandemic [8] - Cisco's Q1 results exceeded expectations, with an 8% year-over-year revenue increase to $14.9 billion, driven by growth in AI-related spending [9] - JD.com reported Q3 total revenue of 299.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, while net profit decreased by 55.03% [10] - Bilibili turned a profit in Q3 with a net profit of 469 million yuan, showing significant growth in user engagement metrics [10] - Starbucks employees initiated an indefinite strike affecting at least 65 stores across 40 cities, potentially impacting holiday sales [12]

新华财经北京11月13日电（崔凯）在美国联邦政府部分停摆导致关键经济数据发布中断的背景下，美联 储官员近期密集发声，围绕是否在12月继续降息展开激烈辩论。多位具有投票权与非投票权的地区联储 主席及理事在公开讲话中释放出截然不同的政策信号，反映出决策层在通胀顽固与劳动力市场走弱之间 的艰难权衡。 尽管如此，威廉姆斯认为将量化紧缩持续至11月底"完全合理"，并反对市场要求提前终止缩表的呼声。 他还重申常备回购便利（SRF）工具的有效性，鼓励银行积极使用，称其"无需担心污名化或其他障 碍"。 关于利率政策，威廉姆斯未对12月是否降息作出明确表态，仅强调"通胀高企且目前未见回落迹象，同 时经济展现出一定韧性"。他同时反驳了达拉斯联储主席洛根关于转向以回购利率为政策基准的建议， 坚持联邦基金利率仍是合适的政策锚点。 降息节奏争议升级官员立场两极分化 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）持续呼吁加快宽松步伐。他周三再次表示，当前货币政策"过 于紧缩"，应进一步降低利率以缓解经济下行风险。米兰主张单次降息50个基点，最低限度也应为25个 基点，并强调货币政策具有12至18个月的滞后效应，"若仅依据当前数据制 ...

Core Insights - The New York Fed official Roberto Perli indicated that rising overnight financing costs suggest that bank reserves are no longer ample, prompting the Fed to potentially buy assets soon to maintain ideal liquidity levels [1] - Perli's comments align with New York Fed President Williams' earlier statements, suggesting that the Fed is close to achieving "ample reserves" and that the next step would be to gradually resume asset purchases [1] - Despite the Fed's announcement to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, market liquidity remains tight, raising concerns about the Fed's potential intervention in the money market before concluding balance sheet reduction [1] Group 1 - Roberto Perli highlighted that indicators, including rising money market rates, strongly indicate that reserves are no longer ample [1] - Perli noted an increase in the use of the Fed's standing repo facility over the past two months, predicting that investors will use this tool more broadly and significantly in the future [1] Group 2 - Williams previously stated that the Fed may soon need to purchase bonds to expand its balance sheet, assessing when bank reserves transition from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [2] - He emphasized the complexity of determining when the Fed will need to inject cash into the system, closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market and repo market [2]

美东时间12日周三，威廉姆斯在纽约联储的2025年美国国债市场会议上表示，美联储正在寻找"充足"的 银行准备金水平，以此确保牢固控制联储的利率目标及正常的货币市场交易状况。他说："基于近期持 续的回购市场压力以及准备金从丰裕转向充足的其他迹象，我预计不久就会达到充足的准备金水 平。"届时，美联储将开始逐步购买资产，以维持充足储备水平。 "美联储三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams）认为，美联储可能很快需要重启债券购买， 作为维持对短期利率控制的技术性措施。威廉姆斯强调，这类购买对货币政策没有影响。 威廉姆斯暗示，美联储需要很快开始逐步直接购买债券，以维持市场流动性与增长经济之间的平衡。 同在周三，特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）再次提到稳定币的影响。在上周五表 示稳定币增长可能使美联储基准利率下降0.4个百分点后，这次他说，稳定币的影响可能会达到2000年 至2010年期间多达六成的储蓄。 "展望未来，我们下一步的资产负债表战略将是评估准备金何时达到充足。届时，将开始逐 步购买资产，以便维持充足的准备金水平，因为美联储的其他负债会不断增长，而且对准备 金的 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer for emerging markets indicates that the dollar remains attractive for arbitrage due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, but there is uncertainty regarding the policy path next year, especially if the new Fed chair adjusts the rate cut pace [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle may fuel asset bubbles, with credit spreads recently widening from 2.76% to 3.15%, reflecting a decrease in risk appetite. Tech investment spending is nearing its peak, with the five major tech companies expected to spend $349 billion in capital expenditures by 2025 [2] - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) cautions that President Trump's proposed "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per person will significantly increase the deficit, potentially adding $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected tariff revenue during the same period [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed does not equate to a restart of quantitative easing (QE), as it involves optimizing asset structure without expanding the balance sheet. The key factor affecting market duration and liquidity is the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance strategy, not the Fed's bond-buying actions [1] - Bank of America highlights that the surge in AI capital expenditures and off-balance-sheet financing is masking future profit pressures, with the actual lifespan of AI hardware being only 3-5 years, posing a depreciation risk that may impact financial reports post-2026 [1] - JPMorgan warns that global investment in AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion over the next five years, far exceeding the capacity of any single financing channel. The investment-grade bond market can provide $1.5 trillion, while there remains a $1.4 trillion gap that will need to be filled by private credit and government funding [1]