Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, with the global shipment rebounding, an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ore shipments, a slight decrease in Brazilian ore, and a slight decline in domestic ore production. On the demand side, the hot metal output continues to increase, but the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills is basically over, weakening the support for ore prices. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not significant. However, as the pre - holiday market sentiment cools, the futures price has declined. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the recovery range of steel demand in the peak season. The strategy is range - bound trading. [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content Price - Spot prices are oscillating downward [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder is oscillating at a low level [13] - The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder is oscillating at a low level [17] Futures Spread and Basis - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuates little, and the 01 basis oscillates at a low level [21] Relative Valuation - The steel - ore ratio oscillates at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillates at a high level [28] Supply - Global shipments stop falling and rebound, and non - mainstream ore shipments stop falling and rebound. From September 22nd to 28th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.754 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.506 million tons [5][34] - Australian ore shipped to China stops falling and rebounds, while Brazilian ore shipments decline slightly. The Australian shipment volume was 20.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0928 million tons; the Brazilian shipment volume was 8.193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons [5][38] - FMG and BHP shipments to China increase slightly [43] - RT shipments to China stop falling and rebound, while VALE shipments decline [47] - The freight rate index rebounds slightly [51] - The 45 - port arrival volume is 23.605 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.145 million tons [5] - The output of domestic iron concentrate decreases slightly. As of September 26th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 mines nationwide was 478,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% [5] Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces oscillates at a low level [67] - The profitability of steel mills declines, but the hot metal output rebounds slightly. On September 26th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons [5][73] Inventory - The port inventory rebounds slightly, and the port throughput is at a high level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increases slightly, and the number of ships at the port decreases by 3 to 99 [5][80] - The inventory of Australian ore stops falling and rebounds, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continues to rise [84] - The coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory rebounds from a low level [91] - Steel mills' consumption is relatively high, and the inventory of imported ore rebounds significantly [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend considering high - level steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro environment. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and holding short positions on the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Although the weak performance of finished steel drags down raw materials, it is still considered to oscillate upward. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke Industry - The spot price of coke is expected to gradually rebound. The market is trading the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions from September to October and the driving force of a bottom - building rebound. It is recommended to go long on the Coke 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is expected to be in a balanced and slightly tight state. It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed small fluctuations. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6, a 54.0% decrease [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease, while the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11 to 1603, a 0.7% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The weekly average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7. The weekly iron ore output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.4 to 66.4, a 2.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 to 1185, a 0.4% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The output of sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase. The demand for coking coal increased as the iron ore output continued to rise and the coking plant operation remained stable [6]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to experience high-level oscillations, supported by both macro and micro expectations [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and demand, similar to coking coal and coke, but there are disturbances on the supply side. The valuation of black commodities still has some support on the macro side, and the view that raw materials are stronger than finished products is maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased week-on-week, and the global high-frequency floating supply rebounded in a V-shape. The impact of the news about BHP's partial variety ban needs further observation [5] - Vale's global shipments were 611.2 tons, a week-on-week increase of 259.1 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.8 tons. Its cumulative shipments from the beginning of the year to the 37th week of 2025 were 19,893 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3 tons, or -0.1% [4] - The supply of non-mainstream mines from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered, while the production capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has stabilized [20][28] Demand - Considering the pre-holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast furnace operations strengthened again, and pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons. The immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong [5] - Pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons again, and port ore handling volume increased due to high downstream operations and restocking demand before the holiday [30] Macro Level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the impact was limited after the decision was made. The domestic macro expectation strengthened after the China-US presidential call, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 575,000 lots, an increase of 31,300 lots. The average daily trading volume was 34,000 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 5,600 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Last week, both the spot and futures markets showed high-level narrow-range oscillations. Among them, the price of BRBF increased by 5 yuan/ton, the price of PB powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the price of super special powder increased by 14 yuan/ton [11] Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived yet, and the inventory of iron concentrate has decreased significantly recently [38][39] Downstream Profits - The spot and futures profits of downstream products have started to show a divergent trend [41] Spot Category Spreads - The price of super special powder has been relatively strong recently, and the spread between medium and low-grade (PB - super special) has continued to narrow significantly, reaching a recent low [44] Futures Monthly Spreads - Recently, both the fundamental reality and macro expectations have been relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread has been relatively stable [46][47] Basis Performance - The futures market has been slightly stronger, and the 05 basis has contracted month-on-month [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. With the increase in production of domestic and imported iron ore, the port inventory decreased while the steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high, and although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **1.1 Iron Ore Main Contract Trend**: Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week [7]. - **1.2 Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, etc. are presented, showing price changes [11]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **2.1 Iron Ore Futures - Spot Spread Trend**: The main basis is -8, 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, pb - super special spread is 77, and barite - pb spread is 9 [16]. - **2.2 Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The rebar - iron ore ratio continued to be weak [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Supply - Demand Analysis - **3.1 Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 2126.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased compared to the previous period [22]. - **3.2 International Shipping Freight**: The shipping price from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.86 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 24.45 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2205 [25]. - **3.3 Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: Port inventory is 13801.08 tons, Australian ore inventory is 5775.57 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5266.52 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 8980.59 tons [28]. - **3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory was 1380.08 tons, a decrease of 48.39 tons compared to the previous period. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9309.43 tons, an increase of 316.38 tons compared to the previous period. The available days of imported iron ore for steel mills was 22 days, an increase of 2 days compared to the previous period, due to pre - holiday restocking [29]. - **3.5 Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 241.02 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, and the hot metal output maintained a high level with stronger resilience than expected [32]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high. Although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36].

Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - September 16, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore has recovered this period, with a significant rebound in shipments and a decline in arrivals compared to the previous period. On the demand side, after the parade, blast furnaces resumed production, and the molten iron output returned to the level before September 3. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with limited overall contradictions and intensified long - short game. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of spot and futures steel profits per ton has an impact on the raw material fluctuation rhythm. Unilateral attention should be paid to the fluctuation range of 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Conclusion - **Price**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with weekly increases ranging from 2 - 15 yuan. As of September 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.5, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 874 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 785 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,154 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,584 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease in the next period [7]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3,573.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816.9 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,850.8 tons, an increase of 583.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,981.6 tons, an increase of 202.0 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,736.7 tons, an increase of 244.5 tons. Brazilian shipments were 869.3 tons, an increase of 381.8 tons [8]. - **Arrivals**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,392.3 tons, a decrease of 180.6 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,245.0 tons, a decrease of 75.0 tons [8]. - **Demand** - **Molten iron output**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased this week, reaching 240.55 tons/day, an increase of 11.71 tons/day compared to last week, a decrease of 4.22 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 17.17 tons/day year - on - year. There were 25 new blast furnace复产 and 3 blast furnace overhauls this period [10]. - **Profit**: As of September 12, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,135 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 54.75 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 164.75 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao's data) was about 3,312 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,185 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 262 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 135 yuan [10]. 2. Data Combing - **Iron ore warehouse receipt price**: The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton. Other varieties also have corresponding chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, and converted warehouse receipt prices [16]. - **Iron ore inter - delivery spread**: As of September 15, the spread between iron ore 1 - 5 contracts closed at 21.5 (- 2.5) [19]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not mentioned in the report - **High - low grade spread**: Not mentioned in the report - **Premium index**: As of September 11, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1825 (+ 0.0005), and the premium index for 65% pellets was 16.6 (-) [29]. - **Brand premium (discount) and inventory**: Various brands such as Mac powder, PB powder, and Jinbuba powder have corresponding inventory trends and premium (discount) data in 15 ports [31]. - **Steel mill sintered powder inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported sintered powder decreased by 70.7 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 5.75%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.94%; and the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 days, a decrease of 4.76% [34]. - **Imported ore inventory and daily consumption of 247 steel mills**: As of September 12, the imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 53.18 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 0.59%; the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 15.98 tons, an increase of 5.69%; and the inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore decreased by 1.53 days, a decrease of 4.80% [37]. - **Port inventory and berthing**: The total port inventory (45 ports), berthing ship numbers at 47 ports, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports all have corresponding data trends [40]. - **Port inventory by ore type**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 42 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 2.68%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 1.06%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 30 tons, a decrease of 2.67%; and the inventory of coarse powder increased by 8 tons, an increase of 0.08% [43]. - **Surcharge**: The surcharge volume has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [46]. - **Iron ore in - transit volume**: The in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China has corresponding data trends [49]. - **Iron ore import quantity**: The import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries have corresponding data trends [52]. - **Australian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Australian shipments to China were 1,737 tons, an increase of 245 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 16.39%; the total Australian shipments were 1,982 tons, an increase of 202.1 tons, an increase of 11.36%; and the proportion of shipments to China increased from 83.86% to 87.64% [62]. - **Brazilian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Brazilian shipments to the world were 869 tons, an increase of 382 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 78.32% [67]. - **Shipments of the four major mines**: As of September 12, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG to China increased by 139 tons, 27 tons, 259 tons, and 72 tons respectively compared to September 5, with increases of 27.85%, 6.01%, 73.59%, and 21.89% respectively, and the total shipments increased by 497 tons, an increase of 30.47% [68]. - **Iron ore arrivals**: As of September 12, the arrivals at 45 ports were 0 tons, a decrease of 2,448 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 100.0%; the arrivals at northern ports were 1,245 tons, a decrease of 75 tons, a decrease of 5.7% [75]. - **Freight rates**: The freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao have corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [77]. - **Domestic ore production (estimated)**: As of September 12, the output of iron concentrate from mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 5.42%; the inventory of iron concentrate from mines was 35 tons, an increase of 1 ton, an increase of 2.84% [79]. - **Steel mill powder daily consumption and steel mill capacity utilization**: As of September 12, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points compared to September 5, an increase of 5.12%; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 62.2 tons, an increase of 9.84 tons, an increase of 18.80%; the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder was 9.2 tons, an increase of 1.50 tons, an increase of 19.43%; and the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons, an increase of 5.12% [81]. - **Pig iron production**: The daily average pig iron production of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association has corresponding data trends from 2016 - 2025, and there are also year - on - year growth rates for 2024/2023 and 2025/2024 [87]. - **Global pig iron production**: The pig iron production of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [90]. - **Global (excluding China) pig iron production**: The pig iron production of regions outside China has corresponding data trends from 2017 - 2025, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The demand expectation still provides support, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to the high - level maintenance of both supply and demand, and sufficient pricing of macro - level positive factors, along with seasonal demand support from steel mills [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Weekly Viewpoint - The supply side shows that Brazilian Vale's shipments have significantly declined due to port maintenance, and non - mainstream shipments are also weak; the demand side indicates that blast furnace operations have quickly recovered, and the raw material demand expectation remains strong; macro - level factors suggest that the market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation, and there is still some macro support for commodity valuations. Overall, the iron ore price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 799.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 543,000 lots (an increase of 41,800 lots). The average daily trading volume was 345,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices were relatively strong, but the price increase of medium - grade PB powder was relatively narrow. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased from 900 to 920 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder increased from 782 to 794 yuan/ton [11] Iron Ore Supply Side Mainstream Mines - Brazilian port maintenance led to a sharp drop in shipments, and mainstream shipments declined. For example, Brazil's weekly shipments decreased by 509.1 million tons compared to the previous week, and Australia's decreased by 320 million tons [4] Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream shipments also had a phased decline [20] Domestic Mines - The operation in North China has recovered, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has been revised upwards [26] Iron Ore Demand Side Downstream - Pig iron production has rapidly recovered, and the port's imported iron ore clearance volume may increase seasonally, with expectations of downstream restocking demand [29] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - Scrap steel arrivals increased again on a week - on - week basis. The scrap - pig iron price difference stopped falling after reaching a recent low [30] Iron Ore Inventory - The port inventory level has been relatively stable recently [32][34] Downstream Profits - Downstream operations have quickly recovered, and profits are oscillating at a low level [37] Spot Category Price Difference - The price of medium - grade PB powder has been relatively weak. The high - medium grade price difference has continued to strengthen, and the medium - low grade price difference has continued to narrow [39][40] Futures Contract Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread reached a phased high (24.5) and then declined [44] Basis Performance - Both futures and spot prices were strong, and the overall basis level has been relatively stable [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is at a high level [2]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have also dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak. Overall, the fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the good demand resilience and high - level ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The demand side: After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited [3]. - The supply side: The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak, resulting in relatively low ore supply [3]. - Overall: The fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].