数据公布后，现货黄金短线下挫，跌破3690美元关口。美元指数短线走高近10点。 尽管对经济、劳动力市场放缓和关税上调的担忧持续存在，美国消费者上个月仍在稳定支出。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，8月份美国零售商支出环比增长0.6%，与7月份上调后的0.6%持平，远好于经济学家预期的增长0.2%。 加拿大皇家银行首席经济学家Frances Donald写道："从更长期视角来看，消费活动（尤其是零售销售）仍在稳步推进，既未加速，也未出现显著减 速。"Donald也补充称，高收入家庭的消费韧性对整体消费活动起到了不成比例的拉动作用。股市创纪录的牛市行情以及房价飙升，推高了许多家庭的财富 水平，这使得即便整体经济显现疲软迹象，消费者仍愿意消费。 分析师还指出，零售销售数据强劲的部分原因也可能在于关税推动商品价格上涨，而非实际销售数量增加。 富国银行高级经济学家Sam Bullard表示："尽管消费者支出存在一定内在韧性，但整体增速正在放缓。家庭目前总体仍有消费能力，但对劳动力市场的担忧 日益加剧，这意味着今年剩余时间里，消费增长步伐可能会有所回落。" 纽约联储周一发布的一项调查显示，未剔除通胀影响的家庭支出，8月同比 ...

Core Insights - Retail sales in the U.S. increased significantly in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth, indicating robust consumer spending despite concerns over inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1 - The rise in retail sales suggests that U.S. households are maintaining healthy spending levels [1] - The growth in retail sales occurs amidst ongoing worries about inflation and a softening labor market [1]

每经AI快讯，9月16日消息，美国8月零售销售环比增长0.6%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.5%。 ...

美国8月零售销售环比 0.6%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.5%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

US stocks pulled back slightly from records on Tuesday as a retail sales update showed Americans continuing to spend despite a weakening labor market and the Senate confirmed President Trump's pick, Stephen Miran, as a Federal Reserve board governor. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped nearly 0.3%. In an otherwise light week on economic data, on Tuesday, investors received the latest figures o ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic events and data releases for the upcoming week, focusing on the potential for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - Key economic indicators to watch include US housing market data, Canadian CPI, UK and Eurozone CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, global PMI data, and German GDP along with UK retail sales [1] Group 2 - On Monday and Tuesday, the US housing market data will be released, including the NAHB housing market index and July new housing starts and building permits, indicating resilience in the US residential construction sector despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty [3] - The Canadian CPI for July will also be released, with market expectations suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, potentially lowering rates to 2.25% by year-end [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak labor market data and low inflation expectations, following a significant rate reduction of 225 basis points since last August [5] - The UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be closely monitored, with the UK CPI unexpectedly rising to its highest level in over a year, which may influence the Bank of England's future decisions [5] Group 4 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, providing insights into the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts, while the Jackson Hole global central bank conference will feature key speeches, including one from Fed Chair Powell [6][7] - Initial PMI data for August will be released, with a focus on manufacturing and services sectors across various countries, indicating potential economic expansion or contraction [6] Group 5 - On Friday, attention will turn to Germany's second-quarter GDP final value, which is expected to confirm a 0.1% contraction, alongside retail sales data from the UK and Canada [9] - The UK retail sales for July are anticipated to show a continuation of the rebound seen in the previous month, driven by seasonal factors [9]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week [1] - Economic data released on the same day showed mixed results, leading to minimal changes in gold prices [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the manufacturing index for New York State rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, significantly exceeding expectations of a decline to 0.0, indicating further expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.6, down from 61.7 in July and below expectations of 62 [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery fell by 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 1.35% for the week [2]

Market Performance - On August 15, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.40% and 0.29% respectively [4] - The large tech stocks experienced varied movements, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.34%. META briefly rose nearly 2%, reaching a market capitalization of $2 trillion, but closed at $1.9726 trillion [6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.74%, with notable gains from companies like Xunlei, which surged over 26% [6] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, spot gold prices rose by 0.01%, while international crude oil prices fell [2] - As of August 15, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery dropped by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [8] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August was reported at 58.6, marking a decline from previous values [6] - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while core retail sales also grew by 0.3% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting significant movements in individual stocks, particularly UnitedHealth, and the implications of the upcoming US-Russia summit on market sentiment [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the Nasdaq and S&P indices experienced declines [2]. - UnitedHealth's stock surged over 12%, marking it as a standout performer in the market [3]. Group 2: UnitedHealth Insights - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth in Q2, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, while selling its $1 billion stake in T-Mobile [6]. - UnitedHealth is facing multiple challenges, including rising medical costs and a recent leadership change after disappointing earnings [7]. - The company's stock performance has been volatile, with a 52-week high of $630.73 and a low of $234.60, and it currently has a market capitalization of $276.865 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the US dropped from 61.7 in July to 58.6 in August, with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% for the next year [7]. - Retail sales in July showed overall growth, driven by automotive sales and online promotions, indicating a slight increase in consumer spending despite macroeconomic concerns [8]. Group 4: US-Russia Summit - The upcoming summit between Trump and Putin is highly anticipated, with potential implications for the ongoing Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics [10][12]. - The White House expressed hopes for a peaceful resolution to the war, but the outcomes remain uncertain, particularly regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity and NATO aspirations [13][14].