枕戈待旦——钢铁行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250707 颈问题。 摘要 房地产市场下滑导致钢铁需求占比从 2020 年的近 40%降至 2024 年的 22%，总需求萎缩，影响地产链相关钢价及制造业板材需求。 矿石和焦炭价格居高不下，占据黑色产业链利润大头，四大矿企主导格 局及国内安检趋严加剧焦炭供给紧张，导致吨钢利润收窄。 2025 年焦煤价格显著下跌，铁矿石基本面恶化，港口库存回升至 1.4- 1.5 亿吨，非主流矿增产，供给压力有所减轻。 几内亚西芒渡项目预计 2025 年 10 月至 11 月首次发运，2026 年一期 规划产能 1.2 亿吨，将占全球铁矿边际供给的约 4%，显著影响全球铁 矿供需格局。 新投产项目预计铁矿石生产成本在 50-70 美元/吨，显著改变成本曲线， 未来铁矿石价格可能降至 80 美元/吨以下，改善钢铁行业盈利。 2025 年上半年，实现全季度盈利的钢企比例从去年的 20%-30%上升 至 50%-60%，钢厂盈利能力触底反弹，吸引市场资金关注。 前五个月内需下降 2.9%，但受益于出口强劲，总需求降幅收窄至 1.2%，钢坯出口增速达 300%，缓解了内需滞销压力 ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

Core Insights - The launch of Yutong's high-end S series model, Tianyu S12, represents a significant response to the booming high-end tourism market in China, showcasing the company's integration of global resources in research and development [2][11] - The global tourism market is projected to reach 14.2 billion trips and $6.1 trillion in revenue in 2024, indicating a strong recovery and a shift towards high-end travel experiences [3] - High-end tourism is experiencing a structural transformation, with consumers willing to pay a premium for quality experiences, leading to a demand for upgraded travel products and services [3][12] Industry Trends - The high-end tourism market has surpassed $1.7 trillion, growing at a rate of 23.4%, reflecting a shift from price-sensitive to experience-oriented consumption [3] - There is a growing need for high-quality travel tools, as high-end travelers believe that the quality of transportation directly impacts their overall satisfaction [4] - The current bus market lacks sufficient high-end models and service standards, highlighting the need for a new product standard system in the industry [4][11] Yutong's Strategic Positioning - Yutong aims to address market demands by establishing a new product standard system, focusing on four key elements: excellent experience, beautiful design, superior operation, and high quality [4][11] - The Tianyu S12 is designed to meet the needs of high-end tourism and business reception, offering customized solutions for various scenarios [7][12] - Yutong's competitive edge is reinforced by 102 patented technologies, setting new industry benchmarks in terms of vehicle specifications and user experience [7][8] Product Features and Innovations - The Tianyu S12 features advanced technologies such as an active remote pre-purification system, zero-gravity seats, and a dedicated navigation system tailored for buses, enhancing passenger comfort and safety [8][9] - The vehicle's design includes a spacious interior, high visibility, and a long service life, which collectively redefine high-end bus standards [7][8] - Yutong's cloud platform, "Anruitong," provides intelligent operational support, optimizing maintenance and monitoring for improved efficiency [9][12] Market Impact and Future Outlook - The introduction of the Tianyu S12 signifies a pivotal moment in the evolution of China's bus manufacturing industry, aligning with global standards and enhancing competitiveness [11][12] - Yutong is transitioning from a hardware supplier to a comprehensive solution provider, fostering collaboration with tourism and transportation sectors to enhance the overall travel experience [12] - The company's commitment to innovation and quality is expected to drive further growth in the high-end travel market, establishing new benchmarks for the industry [12]

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus has launched its first high-end highway passenger bus, the Tianyu S12, in response to the evolving trends in tourism consumption and diversified travel demands, indicating a strategic shift towards high-end models despite a shrinking market for traditional buses [2][3]. Industry Trends - The market for highway passenger buses has been compressed due to changes in travel methods, leading to a decline in their status as the preferred choice for intercity and provincial travel [2]. - The demand and positioning of large buses have transformed, now serving as important facilitators for consumption upgrades and tourism expansion rather than merely transporting passengers from point A to point B [2]. Product Features - The Tianyu S12 exceeds national standards for large high-level buses and features industry-leading performance in air purification and structural longevity [3]. - 86% of the 114 key performance indicators of the Tianyu S12 align with those of top international high-end buses, showcasing its competitive edge in energy consumption, interior space, and aesthetics [3]. Design Philosophy - The design of the Tianyu S12 integrates Eastern aesthetics with global technology, drawing inspiration from traditional Chinese elements such as Ming-style furniture and ancient architecture [4]. - The vehicle's design team meticulously selected colors from over 1,000 options, simulating various lighting conditions to ensure optimal visual appeal, reflecting a commitment to high-end design [4]. Market Positioning - The launch of the Tianyu S12 aligns with the current phase of China's tourism industry, which is transitioning from rapid recovery to prosperous development, highlighting consumer aspirations for enhanced travel experiences [2]. - The emphasis on aesthetic design and high-end features in the Tianyu S12 sets a precedent for the future of China's bus industry, suggesting a potential for greater recognition on the international stage [5].

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 黄酒行业深度：供需共振，高端化与年轻化 突围 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 2024/7/8 2024/11/5 2025/3/5 2025/7/3 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《啤酒行业深度：攻守兼备，优质龙 头已进入击球区》 2025-05-22 《大众品 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报 总结：需求筑底，细分突围》 2025-05-07 ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 07 月 07 日 东吴证券研究所 1 / 26 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 黄酒行业经历深度调整，当下发生积极变化。1）黄酒行业利润率迎来 边际拐点，龙头量价齐升。2023 年规模以上企业收入 85 ...

百色是广西铝产业发展的核心区。相当长一段时间，百色铝产业主要靠卖资源和生产原材料。"十四 五"以来，百色推动全产业链优化升级，传统铝产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化发展，铝产业整体实 力、质量效益、竞争力显著增强。2025年一季度，百色铝产业实现产值406亿元，同比增长19.6%，为 铝业全年高质量发展奠定坚实基础。 目前，百色已形成全产业链，铝材产量与电解铝产量的比例为1.45∶1，产业结构得到持续优化。百色也 因此成为为数不多的铝产业链齐全的地级市之一，其生态铝产业集群入选广西先进制造业集群。 创新发展动能强劲 从平果市到田阳区再到右江区，右江河谷一带是百色铝产业的集中区，记者在这里感受到百色铝全产业 链发展的强劲动能。 在位于平果市的广西润泰铝业有限公司的车间，只见高速智能冷轧机源源不断地吐出板坯，板坯再经过 连续在线淬火，一卷卷表面光滑锃亮的铝板带成型了。 顺着公司行政主管张文政手指的方向，记者看到一条正在运行的退火装置。"这是我们投资1亿多元自主 研发的线型退火装置，1个多小时就能完成退火工艺。使用以前的老式退火炉，生产周期要4至5天，长 周期是生产的瓶颈。如今，新装置既节能又大幅提升了效率，早上收到订 ...

近日，山东省工业和信息化厅公布了拟入选第九批山东省首版次高端软件产品公示名单。浪潮科技研发的"焱宇行业大模 型服务平台 V1.0"、"浪潮 TYJR 就业创业信息系统 V2.0"及"浪潮国土空间基础信息平台 V5.0"三款软件产品成功入选该名 单。 焱宇行业大模型服务平台 V1.0提供了包括模型聚合、数据标注和敏捷应用构建在内的功能。平台采用低代码开发引擎， 支持构建集成知识库、工作流和插件工具的行业智能体。其特点在于整合了超过150个大模型和20余个多模态模型，并通 过对行业语料数据的处理，旨在提升模型在垂直场景中的应用效果。 浪潮 TYJR 就业创业信息系统 V2.0统基于"政府主导、多方参与、联动共享"模式构建，集成了大模型语义分析、OCR智能 识别、协同过滤算法等技术。系统包含就业匹配、创业扶持、政策资讯和数据分析等模块，通过整合退役军人、用人单位 和服务机构的数据，为相关事务的数字化服务提供解决方案。 浪潮国土空间基础信息平台 V5.0运用地理本体时空数据组织、多模态数据融合及二三维动态展示技术，构建了自然资源 数据与技术支撑体系。平台聚焦于多源数据的存储、管理、服务及可视化应用，统筹管理基础资源、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Yutong Bus [3][5]. Core Views - Yutong Bus has shown significant growth in June sales, with a total of 5,919 vehicles sold, representing a 24.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2025 reached 21,321 vehicles, up 3.7% [1]. - The domestic market is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy in the public transport sector, which has increased subsidies for replacing old electric buses to 80,000 yuan per vehicle, further driving demand [1]. - The company has made substantial inroads into overseas markets, with total sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles in Central Asia and nearly 6,000 units in Europe, supported by strong technological capabilities and after-sales service [2]. - Yutong Bus is optimizing its product layout in line with industry trends, focusing on electrification, intelligent connectivity, and high-end products, which positions the company well for future growth [2]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for Yutong Bus from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.691 billion yuan, 5.274 billion yuan, and 6.069 billion yuan respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][4]. - The total revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 42.614 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 32.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [14].

01 事件概述 公司发布6月产销快报，6月新能源汽车批发销售38.3万辆，同比+12.0%，环比+0.03%；新能源乘用车批发销售37.8万辆，同比+11.0%，环比+0.2%。分品牌看，6 月王朝海洋、腾势、方程豹、仰望销量分别34.3万辆、15,783辆、18,903辆、205辆。 02 分析判断 ► 6 月批发同比增长 出口表现亮眼 公司6月新能源乘用车批发销售37.8万辆，同比+11.0%，环比+0.2%，海外销量9.0万辆，再创新高。新能源乘用车批发中，其中插混乘用车销售17.3万辆，同 比-11.5%，环比-1.1%。纯电乘用车销售20.7万辆，同比+42.5%，环比+1.2%。分品牌看，王朝海洋销量34.3万辆，秦PLUS DM-i 5.0、海豹06等新车型贡献核心增 量；腾势/仰望/方程豹销量3.49万辆，占比9.1%，高端化加速突破。 ► 出海表现亮眼 海外建厂加速推进 受益海外车型上量及区域拓展，6月新能源出口销量9.0万辆，再创新高；出海稳步增长，一方面是由于海外真实需求逐步提升，受益土耳其、巴西、欧洲等地销量快 速增长，主要车型是seal U 混动；一方面是受益滚装船投入：比亚迪202 ...

曾几何时近乎"纹丝不动"的资本市场最近终于"复苏"了。除了宁德时代、欣旺达、亿纬锂能等一波又一波的 巨头奔赴港交所上市，号称敲钟的"锣"都不够用之外，内地几大"板"的受理、问询、批准突然迎来"小高 潮"。 就在最近2个月，单单就高端化工新材料领域，DT新材料已经连续报道包括彩客科技（聚酰亚胺单体）、新 恒泰（发泡材料）、科润新材料（质子膜）、时代华鑫（聚酰亚胺）、长裕集团（特种尼龙）、苏州聚复 （3D打印材料）启动IPO，更有能之光（助剂）上会通过等消息，还都是清一色行业龙头或"小巨人"。投资 人有信心了，新材料就有"钱"了。 扩展阅读： 6月25日，【DT新材料】再获悉，广东省天行健新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"天健新材"）北交所IPO申 请获正式受理，实现了从新三板到拟在创业板上市，最终决定变更为向不特定合格投资者公开发行股票并在 北京证券交易所上市的"三级跳"。 本次，公司拟发行不超过1427.86万股，募资3.97亿元。募集资金将用于天行健新材料制造中心项目（二 期）、天行健新材料研发中心项目，东莞奥能改性塑料生产线技术改造项目及以及补充流动资金。 | 序号 | 项目名称 | 投资总额 (万元) | ...