（来源：好买财富） 2025年即将收官，回望全年，今年全球股市亮点颇多，美国、日本、韩国、德国等多个国家的股票市场 创出历史新高，年内实现了可观的涨幅。 来源：市场资讯 不过，随着市场不断上涨，投资者分歧增多，股市波动也在加大。近期倍受热议的，是美国大型科技股 的泡沫风险。一方面，提示风险的声音逐渐增多，另一方面以巴菲特为代表的长线配置型资金仍然看好 优质科技企业的投资机遇。 风险与机遇并存的当下，全球多国别多元化配置的意义愈发明显。为了帮助大家更深入的了解当前的市 场环境和资配思路，我们准备了"AI科技浪潮中的全球配置"系列文章。 本文是系列文章的第二篇，我们放眼全球市场，横向比对下全球主要经济体的股票市场，看看各自的风 险和机遇如何。 1 全球主要股市宏观环境、盈利估值分析 我们可以先来看一看全球主要经济体的宏观经济运行情况。 | 国家 | 全球GDP 占比 (%) | 实际GDP: 当季同比 | PMI | M2:当月 | CPI:当月 | 政策利 | 长期/10年 国债利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to outperform in 2025, driven by weakening US dollar credit and the AI technology revolution [1] - Non-ferrous metals are anticipated to become the "oil" of a new round of industrial chain transformation, widely used in semiconductors, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy systems [1] - Significant price increases for industrial metals like COMEX copper and LME tin are expected in 2025, although the supply-demand gap is not apparent, indicating financial pricing attributes for future supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - By 2026, as global narratives may converge, non-ferrous metals will shift from long-term pricing to a combination of short and long-term pricing, with real demand pricing power increasing [1] - Structural support may arise from "anti-involution" policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1] - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects representative stocks from the non-ferrous metals industry, covering sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to perform well in 2025, driven by macro narratives surrounding the weakening of the US dollar and the AI technology revolution [1] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX copper rising by 26.8% compared to the end of last year [1] - In 2026, as global narratives converge, non-ferrous metals may shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing, leading to an increase in real demand pricing power [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering key areas such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics influenced by economic cycles and the development of the new energy industry [1] - Structural support for the industry may arise from anti-involution policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

Group 1 - The global stock market has generally risen this year, with major markets like the US, Japan, and Germany reaching historical highs, and the A-share Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by the AI technology revolution and sustained monetary easing from central banks [1][3] - As the AI technology trend matures, concerns about market volatility and high valuations are increasing among investors, prompting discussions on asset allocation strategies [1][3] - The article introduces a series focused on global asset allocation strategies in the context of the AI wave, starting with a broad overview of the current investment environment [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of offensive assets, US tech stocks are highlighted as suitable investments, despite the market being at a relatively high valuation level, as corporate earnings growth remains strong, with 63% of companies exceeding earnings expectations in Q3 [3][4] - The Nasdaq index shows a year-on-year earnings growth rate of 25.4%, indicating that sustained earnings growth may help mitigate high valuations over time [3][4] - The article suggests maintaining a focus on large-cap tech stocks while being mindful of market volatility and exploring tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [3][4] Group 3 - For defensive assets, US Treasury bonds and hedging strategies are recommended, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have contributed to a decline in bond yields [4][5] - Various types of US bonds have performed well this year, with the US Aggregate Bond Index up 6.71% and the US Treasury Index up 5.97% year-to-date, indicating strong performance amid a loosening monetary policy [4][5] - The article emphasizes the potential of US Treasuries as a tool to hedge against stock market volatility, particularly in a controlled inflation environment with rising economic pressures [4][5] Group 4 - Hedging strategies are discussed as a means to offset systemic risks through dual trading, allowing investors to capture trading opportunities while mitigating market risks [5][6] - These strategies can provide independent performance from both equity and bond markets, offering attractive absolute return potential [5][6] - Future articles in the series will delve deeper into the configuration of US tech stocks and the performance characteristics of hedging strategies [5][6]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The current bull market is shaped by the "fragile balance" in US-China economic relations, which has evolved from a phase of symbiosis (2005-2016) to increased trade friction (2017-2024) and now to a new phase since 2025 [2][3] - The "fragile" aspect indicates potential tail risks, while the "balance" suggests both countries have sufficient leverage for negotiations, potentially leading to a reassessment of China's competitiveness and a new valuation recovery space [2][3] Group 2: Gold Market - The ongoing bull market for gold is expected to continue, with gold seen as a key hedging tool against tail risks in the current economic environment [2][4] - The influx of funds into gold ETFs in the US and Europe reflects a trend of "de-dollarization," indicating a detachment from US real interest rates [4] Group 3: Equity Market Dynamics - Historical trends show that during technological revolutions, growth often outpaces value; however, the current AI revolution may lead to more frequent style rotations between growth and value stocks [3] - Different markets exhibit varying performance; for instance, since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, US stocks have shown growth outperforming value, while non-US markets have seen value outperforming growth [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for significant growth opportunities due to rising demand from AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure on the supply side [4] - Strategic metals like cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony are expected to maintain a bull market due to increasing control and stockpiling by resource countries, leading to a systemic price uplift [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of identifying market tops for Chinese stocks and gold, emphasizing that economic and policy signals are crucial for making accurate predictions [1][10][40] - It highlights that the U.S. stock market has a long bull market duration, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making timing more critical for Chinese stocks [5][10] - The analysis indicates that gold's bull and bear markets are lengthy with low switching frequency, suggesting that identifying tops is also significant for gold [1][5] Group 2 - Four key factors are identified that could potentially alter the bull market trends for stocks and gold in 2026: growth direction, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][39] - The current economic conditions in China are characterized as a "weak recovery," while the U.S. is moving towards "stagflation," which could impact the performance of stocks and gold differently [2][41] - The article suggests that while there are no immediate signals indicating a top for the current bull markets, high valuations for gold may lead to increased volatility in the future [26][36][40] Group 3 - The asset allocation recommendation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodity exposure to neutral [3][4] - The rationale for these recommendations is based on the ongoing AI technology wave and liquidity conditions benefiting Chinese stocks, while gold is supported by the current monetary policy environment [3][4] - The article notes that despite potential volatility, there are no clear signals indicating a market top for Chinese stocks or gold at this time [25][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on the "Trump tariffs" has raised questions about the future of U.S. tariff policies, with market expectations shifting towards a potential rejection of these tariffs [2] - The implications of different verdicts on tariffs could significantly affect macroeconomic conditions, fiscal policies, and the bond market [2] Group 2: E-commerce Industry - The e-commerce sector is expected to see moderate growth during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with GMV projected to increase by mid-to-high single digits, benefiting from platform subsidies and extended promotional timelines [3] - Major platforms are expected to show differentiated performance, with Douyin's GMV growth estimated at 20-25%, Pinduoduo at 10-15%, while JD.com may see low single-digit growth and Alibaba is expected to remain flat [3] - The competitive landscape among e-commerce platforms is anticipated to remain intense in 2026, with a focus on traffic acquisition and core user benefits [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from "sharpness" to a more balanced approach, with a focus on identifying more certain opportunities while mitigating tail risks [4] - Key drivers for the global manufacturing cycle include the AI technology revolution and the transition of China's economic drivers, with a continued emphasis on risk assets [4] Group 4: Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.7% from January to October 2025, with retail sales driven by subsidies but showing signs of weakening marginal growth [5] - Three major trends are identified: the resilience of leading white goods manufacturers, the strengthening of smart technology in appliances, and significant growth potential in emerging technologies like AI and robotics [5] Group 5: Energy Sector - The fourth-generation nuclear power technologies are expected to gain traction due to site restrictions and resource constraints, presenting investment opportunities in related industries [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for traditional power generation equipment and the anticipated growth in nuclear power projects [14] Group 6: Selected Companies - Gaode Infrared has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 18.90 CNY, driven by expected growth in complete equipment orders [10] - Ying Tong Holdings, a leading high-end perfume brand manager, has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 2.86 HKD, benefiting from the recovery in high-end consumption [10] - Harsco Electric is positioned to benefit from the normalization of third-generation nuclear approvals and the anticipated acceleration of fourth-generation nuclear development [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend since "9.24", with increasing importance of fundamentals after a valuation correction, supported by the new phase of Sino-US relations, restructuring of the international monetary order, and the AI revolution entering a critical application period [2][5][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The new global order and domestic macroeconomic needs require proactive responses, with the Sino-US relationship entering a new stage, which will continue to promote global capital reallocation favoring Chinese assets [6][12]. - The A-share market is transitioning from valuation recovery to improved profit expectations, with an estimated overall profit growth of around 4.7% for 2026, driven by high-growth sectors and industries nearing performance improvement inflection points [6][30]. - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, with the current risk premium of the CSI 300 at 5.2%, indicating a favorable comparison to the bond market in the context of "asset scarcity" [6][30]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on three main lines: 1) Growth in high-prosperity sectors, particularly in AI and innovative industries; 2) Opportunities from external demand, especially in sectors like home appliances and engineering machinery; 3) Cyclical reversals in industries such as chemicals and renewable energy [7][28]. - The market style is expected to become more balanced, driven by the end of the capacity reduction cycle and policies promoting "anti-involution," leading to a closer supply-demand balance in many cyclical industries [7][28]. Group 3: Profit Growth and Structural Analysis - The profit growth for A-shares is projected to be around 4.7% in 2026, with non-financial companies expected to see an 8.2% increase in net profit, supported by policy implementation and the ongoing AI trend [29][30]. - High-growth innovative sectors are anticipated to support the index, with significant contributions expected from AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing [31][32]. - The capacity cycle is showing signs of improvement, with many industries experiencing a turning point after three years of capital expenditure reduction, leading to potential investment opportunities [32][33].