Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has changed, with market participants closely monitoring upcoming statements from Fed officials for guidance on future monetary policy [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fifth consecutive day, down by 0.39% [2][3]. - Walmart's stock dropped over 4% despite exceeding quarterly sales expectations, marking the first time since May 2022 that its quarterly profit fell short of forecasts [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, reflecting market sentiment [5]. - Minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting revealed concerns among policymakers regarding the labor market and inflation, with most members believing it is too early for a rate cut [7][12]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining the current interest rate, a first since 1993, indicating internal divisions on monetary policy [7]. Individual Stock Movements - Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 1%. Notable performers included XPeng, which surged over 13%, and NIO, which increased by over 10% [7][9]. - XPeng's co-founder and CEO, He Xiaopeng, purchased 3.1 million shares of the company at an average price of HKD 80.49, increasing his stake to approximately 18.9% [7]. Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed opposition to a rate cut, citing persistent inflation concerns [11]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that only one rate cut this year would be appropriate, emphasizing the need for a consistent policy direction [13].

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事施密德：劳动力市场表现稳健。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the Jackson Hole meeting will focus on the labor market, with debates among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding whether the tight labor market reflects a decline in labor participation or a broader economic slowdown [3] - The September policy decision is expected to depend more on the labor market outlook rather than price levels, although inflation trends will also play a reinforcing role [3] - Upcoming events, particularly the non-farm payroll data on September 5 and the consumer price index on September 10, are considered more critical for the market than the Jackson Hole meeting itself [3] Group 2 - If employment data disappoints again, the market may attempt to push expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is highly anticipated, with market participants closely watching for indications of a potential rate cut in September, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut expected [1]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Conference Insights - The Jackson Hole conference has historically served as a significant platform for the Federal Reserve to signal policy changes, with Powell's previous speeches guiding market expectations for rate cuts [3]. - The theme for this year's conference is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy," indicating a shift in focus back to employment as inflation subsides [4]. - The conference may also address the results of the Federal Reserve's framework review, with expectations that Powell might partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020, aiming to rebalance the Fed's dual mandate of employment and inflation [4][8]. Group 2: Labor Market Focus - Powell's upcoming speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" will likely address the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, particularly in light of the July employment report [5][6]. - The July non-farm payroll data showed significant downward revisions, with a net adjustment of -258,000 jobs over the previous two months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [6]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that Powell may modify his previous statements to emphasize the risks associated with the labor market's downturn, potentially signaling support for a rate cut if necessary [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Divergence - There is a notable divergence among Wall Street firms regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting three 25 basis point cuts this year, while Barclays suggests that the next cut may not occur until December [10][11]. - Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious stance, indicating that the Fed's decision in September will depend on upcoming employment and CPI data, suggesting that the Jackson Hole meeting may not have a substantial impact [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Trading Strategies - Historically, the bond market has reacted significantly to the Jackson Hole conference, with notable fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields during the event [12]. - Market participants are currently reducing short positions in the dollar and purchasing "cheap" call options to hedge against potential risks from the conference [15][16].

普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci报告表示，在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲之际，美联储主席鲍威尔可能 会寻求为未来几次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议保留最大的灵活性，并强调政策路径将取决于通胀和劳 动力市场数据。在9月17日的美联储会议之前，还将公布一份就业报告和一份CPI报告。如果通胀数据 意外大大强于预期或劳动力市场强劲反弹，那么下一次会议可能不会降息。如果8月份就业人数增幅放 缓至每月50,000人以下，且失业率上升，则可能会出现降息50个基点的偏宽松结果。 ...

新华财经北京8月21日电（崔凯）美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）公布的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议纪要显示，在经济增长放缓、通胀粘滞、劳动力市场趋弱与外部政策不确定性交织的背 景下，尽管降息预期升温，但官员们坚持"数据依赖"，强调在获得通胀持续向目标靠拢的明确证据前， 不会贸然行动。贸易政策特别是关税对通胀的持续影响，成为当前货币政策决策的最大变数。 经济温和增长，通胀停滞于目标上方 根据纪要内容，美联储评估认为，2025年上半年美国经济以"温和"步伐扩张。尽管第二季度实际GDP实 现环比增长，扭转了一季度的下滑态势，但这一回升主要得益于净出口的强劲贡献——进口因关税预期 提前而大幅萎缩，出口商品温和下降，服务出口进一步增长。相比之下，反映内需的真实私人国内最终 购买（个人消费支出PCE + 私人固定投资）增速持续放缓，暴露出消费与投资动能的疲软。 通胀方面，尽管整体趋势有所缓和，但下行势头已明显停滞。截至6月，整体PCE价格指数同比上涨 2.5%，核心PCE通胀率（剔除食品和能源）为2.7%，两者均与去年同期持平，仍显著高于美联储2%的 长期目标。多位委员在讨论中指出，商品价格通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that nearly all decision-makers support maintaining interest rates without cuts, with only two dissenting voices [17][19][22]. Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% at 44,938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,395.78 points, marking its fourth consecutive decline. The Nasdaq dropped 0.67% to 21,172.86 points [3][22]. - Large technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index down 1.07% [7][10]. - Notable declines among major tech companies included Apple down 1.97%, Amazon down 1.84%, and Tesla down 1.64% [10][11]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed a slight increase against the market trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.33% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.01% [12][14]. - Leading gainers in the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index included Zhengye Biology up 24.87% and NEXT TECHNOLOGY up 12.62% [14]. Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting highlighted that inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, with discussions indicating that tariff impacts are becoming more evident in data [19][20]. - Participants expressed concerns about the potential long-term effects of tariffs on inflation expectations and emphasized the importance of monetary policy in managing these risks [20][22]. - The labor market is observed to be close to full employment, with low unemployment rates, but there are indicators suggesting potential softening in labor demand [21][22]. Financial Stability Concerns - Concerns were raised regarding financial stability, particularly regarding high asset valuation pressures and vulnerabilities in the banking sector due to rising long-term yields [21]. - The discussion included the potential impact of payment stablecoins on the financial system, especially following the recent passage of the GENIUS Act [21].

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, maintaining a steady growth trend despite a complex external environment, slightly below the earlier forecast of 4.5% but above market expectations of 4.3% [1] - Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the 0.7% growth in Q1, indicating economic resilience [1] Domestic Demand - Strong domestic demand was a key driver of economic growth, with household consumption rising by 5.3% year-on-year and public consumption increasing by 6.4% in Q2 [1] - Government policies, such as raising minimum wages and adjusting civil servant salaries, enhanced consumer purchasing power, contributing to a thriving consumption market [1] - Private and public investments grew by 10.2% and 6.8%, respectively, further supporting economic expansion [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by active performance in wholesale and retail, as well as food and beverage sub-sectors [2] - Manufacturing sector growth slowed but still achieved a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with electrical, electronic, and optical products showing sustained growth [2] - Agriculture and construction sectors also reported growth rates of 2.1% and 12.1%, respectively [2] Labor Market - Total employment in Malaysia increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 16.86 million, with an unemployment rate stable at 3%, down 5.7% from the previous year [2] - Labor force participation rate rose to 70.8%, indicating a robust labor market that supports household consumption and sustainable economic growth [2] Trade Performance - Despite challenges, Malaysia's trade performance showed some highlights, with a significant 72.6% drop in net exports due to reduced commodity exports, particularly in mining [2] - Strong performance in electrical and electronic product exports partially offset the overall decline in exports [2] - Malaysia's important position in regional supply chains and trade cooperation with other countries provided some buffer against export market pressures [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Malaysia's inflation remained moderate in Q2, with the overall inflation rate decreasing from 1.5% in Q1 to 1.3%, and core inflation holding steady at 1.8% [3] - The decline in fuel prices and a slowdown in food price increases were the main reasons for the drop in inflation rates, providing stability for consumer purchasing power and room for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank expects overall inflation to remain moderate, ranging between 1.5% and 2.3% for the year [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Malaysia's economy may face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential further slowdown in exports [3] - However, continued domestic demand growth and stable investment activities are expected to provide some support for the economy [3] - The recovery of the tourism sector and the advancement of infrastructure projects are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

美联储发布7月会议纪要，其中提到，在讨论劳动力市场时，与会者注意到失业率仍处于低位，就业人 数已达到或接近最大就业水平的估算值。几位与会者指出，失业率的低水平和稳定性是低招聘率与低裁 员率共同作用的结果。一些与会者表示，他们的联系人及商业调查受访者称，在不确定性较高的情况 下，企业不愿招聘或裁员。关于劳动力市场前景，一些与会者提到了可能表明劳动力需求疲软的指标， 包括就业增长放缓且更集中、周期性敏感的黑人及青年失业率上升，以及跳槽者的工资涨幅低于留任 者。 ...