在受访专家看来，下半年政策将进一步发力稳市场、促转型，在以更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的 同时，也将通过搭建基础性制度、统筹城市更新等工作，助推房地产行业提质向新。 政策助力市场回暖 上半年，房地产政策保持宽松基调，中央层面进一步优化统筹房地产政策，调整供给结构，提振住房消 费。 58安居客研究院院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："2025年上半年房地产调控政策围绕'止 跌回稳'展开，通过精准施策带动市场不断向稳。" 一方面，财政政策工具持续发挥作用。自然资源部、财政部3月份印发《关于做好运用地方政府专项债 券支持土地储备有关工作的通知》，支持运用专项债开展土地储备工作，调节市场存量土地规模，有效 推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 另一方面，金融政策加大支持力度。中国人民银行于5月份下调政策利率0.1个百分点、降低个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，住房按揭利率降至历史最低水平，助力住房消费需求充分释放。 地方层面，各地发力落实金融支持、城市更新、购房补助等各方面政策，并积极运用专项债收购存量闲 置土地及存量商品房。 据克而瑞研究中心统计，2025年上半年，地方层面出台362次稳市场政策，全国拟收储土 ...

关税战走势及全球大类资产展望 - 2025 年宏观中期策略 20260626 摘要 美国债务面临巨大体量、高利息支出和短期债务到期量高等困难，特朗 普政府虽采取博弈、关税战等措施，但未能从根本上解决财政问题，稳 定币的作用有限，难以改善长期美债风险。 下半年美国经济可能因前期透支而放缓，通胀和经济回落或促使美联储 在 7 月至 9 月降息，短端利率可能回弱，但海外投资者减持长端美债， 长端利率仍需谨慎。 今年以来，美股、美债、美元表现分化，反映了定价维度和可替代性的 差异。美股受短期经济影响，美元受长期信用风险影响，全球投资分散 化趋势明显，资金流向亚洲、欧洲及黄金等商品。 美债和美元走势由负相关转为正相关，表明风险溢价上升。美股与黄金 呈现更明显的负相关性和可替代性，黄金与比特币的相关性由负转正， 成为共同避险资产。 人民币资产重估受益于人民币国际化机遇和中国科技军事根基的稳固， 中国被加征关税商品出口份额未降反升，关税战并未削弱中国制造业和 出口的长期优势。 特朗普回归后，美国债务面临三个主要困难：第一是债务体量巨大，美国政府 债务接近 37 万亿，占 GDP 的 122%；第二是利息支出高，美债平均付息 ...

招商蛇口 20250625 摘要 招商蛇口 2025 年销售策略侧重提升去化率，总可售货值预计 3,300 亿 元。公司通过加快存货去化和核心城市布局，优化资产结构，但未提供 明确销售指引，销售额将取决于去化表现。 招商蛇口 2025 年加大补货力度，视其为重要窗口期，1-5 月投资强度 显著提升。策略基于核心城市优质土地供应增加、公司资金面良好及存 在获取优质大型项目机会。 招商蛇口认为核心城市房地产市场具备止跌回稳基础，新房价格回调幅 度大，品质提升，需求释放。前端数据表现出较强韧性，预计 2025 年 市场将止跌回稳。 招商蛇口 2025 年资产端加快盘活和资金周转，提升资产质量；负债端 优化债务结构，降低资金成本。2024 年融资成本为 2.99%，公司希望 保持融资成本优势。 2025 年 5 月统计局数据显示新房价格面临调整压力，可能与优质新房 项目上市对老旧房源价格形成挤压有关。核心城市及区位较好项目价格 未出现边际走强或短期打折情况。 Q&A 2025 年中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的表现呈现出哪些主要特征和波动？ 2025 年以来，中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的数据表现出止跌回稳的特 征 ...

首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-5月，百城宅地成交建面同比-3.4%，成交楼面均价同比+26.2% 2025年1-5月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为6,991万平，累计同比-3.4%；成交楼面均价为7,466元/平方米， 累计同比+26.2%。分能级城市来看，1-5月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为464万平，累计同比+5.3%；成交建面为305万平，累计同比-12.6%；成 交楼面均价为42,605元/平方米，累计同比+50.6%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为4,105万平，累计同比-2.9%；成交建面为3,197万平，累计同比+7.1%； 成交楼面均价为8,735元/平方米，累计同比+19.1%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为3,89 ...

Core Insights - The Australian housing market is showing signs of recovery, with national house prices increasing by 0.5% in May and a total rise of 1.7% in the first five months of the year, indicating growing market confidence [3][5] - First-time homebuyers are increasingly entering the market, with a 16% growth in loans since February, while overall borrower loans have increased by 32%, driven by recent interest rate cuts and government schemes [5][7] Market Trends - The current trend shows a significant influx of buyers into popular property markets, particularly in regional areas, as interest rates are expected to decrease further [1][8] - The top ten hottest regional property markets in 2025 so far are dominated by Queensland locations, with Toowoomba, Burnett, and Springfield-Redbank leading in loan activity [10][11] Buyer Sentiment - First-time buyers like Emily are motivated by the affordability and lifestyle benefits of moving to regional areas, which offer a better work-life balance and proximity to family [12][14] - The ongoing momentum in the housing market is a positive sign, but challenges remain regarding housing supply and affordability, which require time and effective policies to address [14]

Economic Performance - Recent data shows a significant rebound in consumption growth, with the service production index accelerating and urban unemployment rate declining, indicating strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate could reach 5.2% in the first half of the year, with potential for upward revision, reflecting optimism about economic resilience [3] - In May, China's retail sales growth surged to 6.4%, marking the highest level for the year [3] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China and six departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, focusing on enhancing macroeconomic financial foundations and optimizing insurance guarantees [5] - The implementation of these measures is expected to unleash consumption potential and promote healthy economic development [5] Real Estate Market - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange proposed to lift restrictions on foreign capital investment in non-self-use residential properties, indicating a potential influx of foreign investment into China's real estate market [7] - Despite the easing of restrictions, the actual inflow of foreign capital will depend on various influencing factors [7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a continued downturn in the housing market until 2035, while Morgan Stanley suggests the market is beginning to stabilize, with expectations of differentiation in the future [7] Future Outlook - Current economic conditions are deemed more important than future predictions, with the belief that effective policy implementation will lead to steady economic growth and gradual resolution of real estate issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market continues to face severe adjustments, with average second-hand residential prices in 100 cities dropping to 15,173 yuan per square meter, marking a 22-month consecutive month-on-month decline [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In February, the average price of second-hand residential properties fell to 15,173 yuan per square meter, with 99 out of 100 cities experiencing month-on-month price declines [1]. - The number of cities with declining prices has exceeded 90 for nine consecutive months, indicating a persistent downturn in the market [1]. - Despite various government policies aimed at stimulating demand, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - There are two contrasting viewpoints regarding investment decisions in the current market. One perspective suggests that favorable policies signal a good time to buy, especially as bank deposit rates decline [3]. - Conversely, a cautious viewpoint highlights the significant risk of a real estate bubble, suggesting that storing funds in a bank is a safer option compared to purchasing property [5]. - Notable entrepreneur Cao Dewang argues that real estate has become a "hot potato" among the wealthy, and its value may ultimately depreciate, recommending that individuals with 1 million yuan should consider saving rather than buying property [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Storing 1 million yuan in a bank could yield approximately 20,500 yuan in annual interest at a 2.05% interest rate, which can help cover living expenses [7]. - Purchasing property would likely lead to substantial mortgage debt, significantly reducing disposable income and increasing financial pressure [7]. - In the current market environment, saving money in a bank is viewed as a more prudent and stable choice compared to buying real estate, which is perceived as less reliable for value retention [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the Changsha Olympic Sports Center area, including the approval of the environmental impact report for the extension of Metro Line 5 and the launch of the first residential land for resettlement, indicate a significant step towards the area's construction and development, which is expected to boost real estate opportunities in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Project Developments - The environmental impact report for the extension of Metro Line 5 has been publicly released, bringing the project closer to commencement [1]. - The first residential land for resettlement in the Olympic Sports Center area has been officially listed, marking a substantial move towards land supply and development in the region [2]. - The land parcel, designated for the construction of resettlement housing, has a starting price of 400.39 million yuan and a starting floor price of 1,886 yuan per square meter [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The launch of quality land parcels in the Olympic Sports Center area is expected to lead to the development of more high-quality residential projects [2]. - The average selling price for the newly listed residential land is approximately 6,100 yuan per square meter, which is lower than surrounding projects priced at 10,000 to 11,000 yuan per square meter [3]. - The development of high-quality resettlement communities is anticipated to attract population influx and support initial commercial and educational operations, enhancing the area's overall vitality [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing construction and improvement of infrastructure in the Olympic Sports Center area are expected to increase housing demand due to industrial clustering and population growth [4]. - Real estate developers are likely to intensify their efforts in the area, leading to a rich supply of housing projects and a favorable supply-demand balance [4]. - The overall housing prices in the Olympic Sports Center area are projected to steadily rise as the 2029 National Games approaches and infrastructure continues to improve [4].

2025 年 6 月 26 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、镍、锡、工业硅、碳酸锂、 焦煤期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3944 和 3964 点，支撑位 3910 和 3890 点；IH2509 阻力位 2735 和 2750 点，支撑位 2719 和 2707 点；IC2509 阻力位 5838 和 5888 点，支撑位 5740 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...