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经济学家再预警美处于“衰退边缘”,美政府:已解决发布数据的人
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 14:04
赞迪警告,美国不仅劳动力市场正在走弱,而且消费者支出持平,建筑业和制造业萎缩。他还认为,在 通胀率仍高于2%目标的情况下,美联储将很难重振经济的增长。 当地时间8月3日,评级机构穆迪的首席经济学家马克·赞迪连发4条推文警告,过去一周的各项指标均显 示美国经济正处于衰退边缘。 就业数据经修正 增量被"抹了整" 美国劳工部8月1日发布经济数据显示,7月美国非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万,低于市场预期。同时, 美国5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万, 共计减少25.8万个就业岗位。此外,企业招聘率降至七个月以来的最低点,反映出就业市场活力持续减 弱,企业需求的实质性疲软。 同一天,马克·赞迪发文称:"任何认为经济数据歪曲了经济实际表现的观点都是大错特错。当经济处于 拐点,例如衰退时期,数据总是会经历大幅修正。" 赞迪还"阴阳"了一把美国政府的大裁员,称尤其考虑到"政府效率部(DOGE)"的一通折腾,各个政府 部门向劳工统计局报告的数据都是延迟的。随着就业情况变得不稳定,数据自然会经历大幅修正。今年 年初,马斯克在特朗普支持下创立"政府效率部",但随 ...
【环球财经】土耳其通胀率连续14个月回落 7月降至33.52%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 13:45
Core Viewpoint - Turkey's annual inflation rate unexpectedly decreased to 33.52% in July, marking the 14th consecutive month of decline since the peak in May of the previous year [1] Inflation Data - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.06% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, compared to a 1.37% increase in June and a year-on-year increase of 35.05% [1] - Key contributors to monthly inflation included a rise in transportation prices by 2.89%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices by 5.69%, and housing prices by 5.78% [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The ongoing release of inflationary pressure creates favorable conditions for monetary easing, leading the Central Bank of Turkey to cut the policy rate by 300 basis points, restarting the easing cycle after a pause in April due to financial and political turmoil [1] - The Central Bank expressed increased confidence in the trend of declining inflation, with expectations that inflation could fall to a range of 24%-29% by the end of the year [1] Producer Price Index - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.73% month-on-month and 24.19% year-on-year [1]
银行人员提醒:3种存款赶紧取出,吃亏的人已不少
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 07:23
Core Insights - In 2025, the average household savings in China reached 213,000 yuan, a 4.8% increase from the previous year, but inflation at around 2.7% is eroding purchasing power [1] - The article emphasizes the need to reassess traditional savings methods in light of changing economic conditions and financial products [1] Group 1: Concerns with Current Savings Products - The so-called capital-protected financial products have hidden risks, as banks have shifted to offering quasi-capital-protected products that often yield lower returns than traditional fixed deposits [2] - In 2024, the scale of structured deposits in the banking sector reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with an average actual yield of only 2.85%, which is lower than the rates for fixed-term deposits [2] - A significant 87% of structured deposits ended up yielding only the minimum return, highlighting the unpredictability of these products [2] Group 2: Issues with Flexible Deposit Products - "Zero and flexible" deposit products, while marketed for their convenience, often come with multiple hidden restrictions that can significantly lower actual returns [3] - In 2024, over 300 such products were issued, averaging 3.5 hidden restrictions each, which can lead to lower effective interest rates for consumers [3] - For example, a customer who withdrew funds early faced a drastic reduction in interest rates, demonstrating the pitfalls of these seemingly attractive products [3] Group 3: Reevaluation of Long-term Low-interest Deposits - Long-term deposits often offer minimal additional interest compared to shorter-term options, which can lead to missed opportunities for higher returns [4] - For instance, a five-year fixed deposit might only yield 0.4% more than a one-year deposit, which contradicts the principle of time value of money [4] - Analysts predict a potential interest rate adjustment cycle in late 2025 to 2026, making liquidity more valuable than slightly higher fixed rates [4] Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - Government bonds are highlighted as a favorable fixed-income option, with a 3.1% yield for three-year bonds, surpassing traditional bank deposits [5] - Large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) also present a viable option, with an average yield of 3.05% for three-year CDs from major banks [5] - The article advocates for a diversified asset allocation strategy, including maintaining an emergency fund and considering various investment vehicles based on individual risk tolerance [5] Group 5: Shift in Asset Allocation Trends - Data from the first quarter of 2025 indicates a trend towards diversified asset allocation among Chinese residents, with a decrease in bank deposit proportions and an increase in government bonds and funds [7] - This shift reflects a growing awareness of financial management and the importance of strategic asset allocation in achieving financial freedom [7] - The article stresses the need for individuals to actively engage with the market and choose suitable investment options to combat inflation [7]
全球作物保护市场或迎转折
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-08-04 06:11
Group 1 - The global crop protection product inventory levels are showing signs of normalization after an unprecedented destocking in 2023, with manufacturers cautiously optimistic about the market in the second half of 2025 [2] - The global crop protection market is expected to decline by 6.0% year-on-year in 2024, reaching approximately $75.4 billion, due to macroeconomic factors and low agricultural prices affecting farmer incomes [2] - Crop protection companies have faced challenges over the past two years, with executives acknowledging the difficult period for the industry, but there are expectations for performance improvement in 2025 due to stabilized inventory and demand recovery [2] Group 2 - The U.S. crop protection market is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, reaching $77 billion, despite ongoing inflation and trade tensions impacting farmer incomes [3] - Tariff impacts on crop protection companies have been manageable, with estimates of tariff effects on Corteva's crop protection business reduced from $50 million to $25-30 million, aided by supply chain diversification [3] - U.S. farmers are proceeding with their planting plans, which is a positive sign for the crop protection market recovery [3] Group 3 - European crop protection companies face greater challenges, with Bayer anticipating increased price competition due to a surge in generic product capacity, particularly in glyphosate [4] - Bayer has announced a restructuring of its crop protection production and R&D in Germany to address the competitive pressures from Asian generic manufacturers [4]
摩根士丹利:未来数月关税将使美国物价上涨约1个百分点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 05:41
Core Insights - The actual tariff rate for U.S. imports in May was 8.3%, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast of 10% to 15% [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff rates will trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July, with implications for inflation [1] - Key factors contributing to the lower-than-expected actual tariff rate include transportation delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a significant decline in imports from emerging markets [1] Economic Impact - The expected increase in effective tariff rates in June and July is likely to have a more pronounced effect on U.S. inflation [1] - Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically manifests 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the economic growth repercussions are observed within 3 months [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that tariffs could lead to a price increase of approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months, which may gradually dissipate as demand weakens [1]
美关税涨至大萧条水平,创90年新高!特朗普要把全球经济带向深渊
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 05:40
Core Viewpoint - The global era of high tariffs has begun, with the U.S. implementing differentiated tariffs on 68 countries and 27 EU member states, raising the actual tariff rate to 17%, nearing levels seen during the Great Depression in 1933 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The tariff increase may lead to inflation in the U.S., as domestic prices are expected to rise, which could hinder economic recovery if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates [5][7]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the Great Depression, where high tariffs contributed to global economic collapse, raising concerns about repeating past mistakes [3][7]. Group 2: Domestic Consequences - The U.S. labor market is already showing signs of distress, with rising unemployment rates, prompting criticism of the current administration's handling of economic data [5]. - The potential for a self-inflicted economic downturn exists, as the tariff policy may harm the U.S. economy while attempting to target other nations [7].
美国失业率上升,特朗普“气炸”把统计局长开除,这就是掩耳盗铃
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 04:51
当特朗普终于就任美国总统后,经济依然是他最关注的问题之一。他在多次场合强调自己是亿万富翁,有能力带领国家走向繁荣。因此,他对股市和各项经 济指标的关注可想而知。他多次要求美联储主席鲍威尔降息,甚至不惜采取威胁的方式,指责鲍威尔在美联储大楼装修上花费过多,暗示可能的腐败。这一 切,无非是为了将利率压低,进而释放市场资金,推动经济复苏,以形成自己的政绩。 然而,此次鲍威尔不仅没有降息的意愿,还显得对特朗普的关税政策十分反感,认为这一政策把经济搞得一团糟,通胀压力即将来临。因此,他坚决拒绝了 降息的请求。面对这些不如意的消息,特朗普显得十分愤怒。他的处理方式还是一如既往地强硬,既然没有办法改变数据,那就通过开除相关负责人的方式 来解决问题。即便是一位在统计学领域相当资深的专家,似乎也无法逃脱被解雇的命运。在这样的环境下,即便是事实真相也无法改变特朗普的决策,而他 开除官员的消息往往通过社交媒体随意发布,下面的工作人员则机械地执行着这一命令。 由此可见,当人们在特朗普的领导下工作,似乎并不容易,确切地说,他们的处境常常非常艰难。股票市场上的波动、不断变化的经济政策,以及特朗普时 不时的决定,让员工在极大的压力下工作。 ...
美国经济:就业显著走弱,美联储面临两难
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-08-04 01:41
Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000[5] - The non-farm employment figures for May and June were revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, resulting in a 3-month moving average of 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic[5] - Private sector job growth increased from 3,000 to 83,000 in July, while goods-producing jobs decreased by 13,000, with manufacturing jobs experiencing three consecutive months of negative growth[5] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, marking a new high since 2021 but still at historical lows[5] - The labor participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply[5] - The household survey showed a decrease of 260,000 in employment and an increase of 220,000 in unemployment in July[5] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell indicated that even if job growth drops to zero, a stable unemployment rate would suggest a robust labor market due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand[5] - The Fed faces a dilemma as tariffs may drive inflation up, complicating the balance between expanding employment and reducing inflation[5] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[5]
美联储理事库格勒宣布辞职
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 17:30
当地时间8月1日,美联储表示,理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)将辞职提前离开美联储理事会,辞呈于8 月8日正式生效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之际,这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺,也 给未来美联储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事,在加入 美联储之前,她是乔治城大学的教授,也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储理事沃勒和美联储监管副主席鲍曼投票反对维持利率不变,希望降息25个基点。这标志着自1993 年12月格林斯潘时代以来,理事会七人首次有两名成员正式反对FOMC的决定。 回顾历史,美联储理事反对票相对罕见,大多数反对票源于地区联储主席。上一次出现理事反对票是在 去年9月的会议上,当时鲍曼希望降息25个基点,而不是最终决定的50个基点,上一次两位地区联储主 席投票反对FOMC共识是在2019年10月。 当地时间上周五,鲍曼和沃勒回应了自己赞成降息的原因,因为他们越来越担心劳动力市场。沃勒 说:"我认为观望的态度过于谨慎。"他重申了今年一直强调的一个信念:关税将导致一次性价格上涨, 但不会导致持续的通货膨胀,美联 ...
宏观周报:“东稳西缓”的宏观超级周-20250803
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-08-03 11:09
Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 31, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.444 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 21.0%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,819.3 in July, a month-on-month increase of 8.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.5%, down from 51% in June, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The new orders index dropped to 49.4%, down from 50.2%, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% from 47.7%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6% in July, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity[3] Price Performance - As of August 1, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week-on-week, while the futures price of live pigs increased by 0.50%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables rose by 0.64%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits fell by 0.06%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a strong increase in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.78% and 3.48% respectively[4] Fiscal and Investment - This week, the issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with an additional 350 billion yuan in special government bonds and 2.53 trillion yuan in special bonds issued, marking a 63.3% progress rate[7] - The issuance of local general bonds reached a progress rate of 63.9%[7] Monetary and Liquidity - The yield curve for government bonds is trending downward, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.7059%, down 3 basis points from the previous week[9] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan this week[9]