不少人纳闷，央行为啥要这么执着买黄金？这背后藏着的大棋局，说出来恐怕让美国都坐不住！ 要说这增持的时机，那可是精准踩在节点上， 正好是美国大选尘埃落定，特朗普重返白宫之际。当时大家就预判，2025年美国的全球战略肯定要大改，果不其然，特朗普上台后又是逼着美联 储降息，又是在全球掀贸易战，国际金融市场瞬间变得波诡云谲。 最新数据一曝光，全网都看明白了：中国央行的黄金储备直接创下历史新高！截至去年12月，我们手里的黄金已经达到7415万盎司，折算下来差 不多2306吨，更关键的是，这已经是连续14个月疯狂增持了！ 中国这14个月不停囤黄金，说白了就是提前对冲风险！万一美国的激进政策引发金融海啸，我们手里有黄金这硬通货，心里就有底，国家金融安 全也能多一层实打实的保障。 更值得关注的是，现在地缘局势越来越紧张，尤其是台海方向。台当局频频搞事情，破坏两岸关系，让局势朝着 危险的方向发展，而咱们也在加快收台准备。 大家不妨想想，真到了收台的关键时刻，美国大概率会像对付俄罗斯那样，拉着盟友对咱们搞制裁，到时候手里的美债说不定就被冻结了。所以 央行一边狂买黄金，一边悄悄减持美债，都是未雨绸缪的关键动作。手里攥着更多"非主权 ...

带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者对高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉进行了独家专访。在她看来，驱动这 一乐观预期的核心动能，源于对中国出口前景的全新评估。 在全球经济的再平衡进程中，中国制造业凭借其深厚的产业链优势和不断增强的科技竞争力，正展现出 强大的增长韧性。 然而，经济"外贸强内需弱"的不平衡格局，也对可持续发展提出了深刻挑战。如何善用出口带来的宝 贵"窗口期"，系统性地构建内需增长的长效机制，将是中国经济实现高质量、可持续发展的关键所在。 新年伊始，全球经济图景在不确定性的迷雾中展开。当多数市场参与者仍在谨慎观望时，国际知名投行 高盛却逆势而上，率先在去年10月将其对中国2026年和2027年的GDP增速预测分别上调至4.8%和 4.7%。这是自2019年以来，该行对中国经济增长预期做出的最大幅度上调，其乐观程度显著高于市场 平均预期。 这一判断的底气何在？在全球经济的顺风与逆风之间，中国经济这艘巨轮将如何航行？ 出口预期强劲 《21世纪》：在当前的国际经济形势下，高盛对中国经济的预测相对其他外资银行显得更为乐观：将 2025年GDP增速从4.9%上调至5.0%，2026年从4.3%上调至4.8%，2027年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting 4.8% for 2026 and 4.7% for 2027, marking the largest upward revision since 2019, driven by a more optimistic outlook on exports [1][2][10]. Group 1: Export as Economic Engine - The optimism in GDP growth forecasts is primarily due to a more favorable outlook on exports, supported by three main pillars: a better-than-expected global macro environment, strong competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, and improvements in the external trade environment [2][3][11]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.6% growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, indicating strong external demand for Chinese exports [2][10]. - The Chinese manufacturing sector is expected to enhance its global competitiveness through technological advancements and government support, which will drive export growth [3][11]. Group 2: Export vs. Domestic Demand - China's economy exhibits a "strong export, weak domestic demand" characteristic, which is likely to persist in the near term, as building domestic demand is a long-term and systematic challenge [4][12]. - The reliance on exports poses risks, as a downturn in global demand could significantly impact the domestic economy, highlighting the need for policy adjustments to boost domestic consumption [5][13]. Group 3: Manufacturing Resilience - High-end manufacturing is a key driver of China's export resilience, with machinery and electronic products accounting for 60.9% of total exports, showing an 8.8% year-on-year growth [6][14]. - The cost advantage of Chinese manufacturing, with prices 30% to 40% lower than in other countries, supports the continued growth of exports despite trade tensions [6][15]. Group 4: Currency Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is expected to accelerate, driven by China's growing share in global GDP and trade, which is currently disproportionate to the RMB's role in the global currency system [8][18]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD, predicting a rate of 6.85 by the end of 2026, which would enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [7][19]. Group 5: Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - To stimulate consumer spending, policies should focus on providing financial support to low-income individuals, creating jobs, and increasing wages, as these measures directly enhance consumption capacity [21][23]. - The government is expected to play a significant role in boosting consumption through public service spending, which could lead to a more substantial impact on GDP in the coming years [21][24].

新华财经北京1月13日电人民银行13日开展3586亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有162亿元逆回购到期， 公开市场实现净投放3424亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种涨幅进一步加大。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨7.50BP，报1.3910%；7天Shibor上涨5.00BP， 报1.5230%；14天Shibor上涨4.50BP，报1.5340%。 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 | | | | 2026-01-13 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 1 | O/N | 1.3910 | 7.50 | | 中 | 1W | 1.5230 | 5.00 | | 中 | 2W | 1.5340 | 4.50 | | t | 1M | 1.5590 | 0.30 | | 1 | 3M | 1.6000 | 0.20 | | 中 | 6M | 1.6200 | 0.00 | | ゃ | 9M | 1.6390 | 0.20 | | ⇒ | 1Y | 1.6490 | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On January 12, the liquidity tightened, with major repo rates rising; the entry of allocation funds intensified, leading to a stronger bond market; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds increasing; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends, and the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Four departments formulated the "Working Measures for Strengthening the Layout Planning and Investment Guidance of Government Investment Funds (Trial)" and the "Administrative Measures for the Evaluation of Government Investment Fund Investment Directions (Trial)" to guide government investment funds to support the construction of a modern industrial system [3]. - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China emphasized six key tasks in 2026, including promoting financial reform and opening up, and advancing the internationalization of the RMB [3]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, causing international oil prices to rise briefly [4]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On January 12, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices turned up. WTI February crude oil futures rose 0.64%, Brent March crude oil futures rose 0.84%, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 6.78% [5]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On January 12, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.1 billion yuan after 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [7]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On January 12, the liquidity tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 5.43bp to 1.327%, and DR007 rose 1.75bp to 1.490% [8]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: As the 10-year Treasury bond yield reached around 1.90% on January 12, allocation funds entered the market, driving the bond market stronger. By 20:00, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016 fell 1.50bp to 1.8710%, and the yield of the 10-year CDB bond active bond 250215 fell 0.60bp to 1.9640% [10]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 26Nongfa01 (Increment 2) and 25Nongfa23 (Increment 17) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yield, and other data [11]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On January 12, the transaction prices of 4 industrial bonds deviated by over 10%. "H1 Bidi 01" fell over 98%, "H1 Bidi 03" fell over 90%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell over 47%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose over 360% [12]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced events such as loan repayment extensions, bank loan defaults, and equity freezes [15]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On January 12, the three major A-share indices rose collectively, and the main convertible bond market indices also rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 1.37%, 1.37%, and 1.27% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 108.474 billion yuan [14]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Jin 05 Convertible Bond will be listed on January 14. Taifu Convertible Bond announced no early redemption, and Sailong Convertible Bond is expected to trigger the early redemption clause [21]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On January 12, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 3.54%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 1bp to 4.19%. The 2/10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread widened by 1bp to 65bp [18][19]. - **European Bond Market**: On January 12, the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies generally declined. The 10-year German government bond yield fell 3bp to 2.80% [22]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese dollar bonds as of the close on January 12 were provided, including information on bonds of companies such as New Lake (BVI) 2018 Holdings and Huazhu Group [24].

Group 1 - The core discussion involved macroeconomic financial conditions, technological innovation development and application, and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] - The meeting emphasized strengthening business cooperation between the two financial institutions [1]

Group 1 - HSBC expresses a positive outlook on Chinese assets, recommending investors to increase holdings in mainland China and Hong Kong stocks by 2026 and to establish long positions in the renminbi [1] - The bank suggests a shift in investment focus towards assets supported by domestic demand amid potential market volatility, particularly favoring stocks in China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia [2] - HSBC advises selling Swiss francs and buying offshore renminbi, anticipating a gradual appreciation of the renminbi due to China's industrial upgrades and technological self-sufficiency [1][3] Group 2 - HSBC recommends an overweight position in stocks from mainland China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia, while advising a reduction in exposure to the crowded South Korean market due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven growth [2] - The bank highlights the potential for interest rate cuts by some Asian central banks to support local stock markets, although the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit this space [4] - In the fixed income sector, HSBC favors a curve steepening strategy and is optimistic about bonds from India and the Philippines, while being cautious about Thailand and Indonesia [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trend of the weakening dominance of the US dollar and the potential for the Chinese yuan (RMB) to appreciate, particularly in the context of the recent economic forum held in Shanghai [1] - Experts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate in 2026, with varying opinions on the extent of this appreciation, ranging from 2%-3% annually to a potential total appreciation of over 30% in the next decade [3][4] - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to lead to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the RMB, which has already crossed the 7 mark against the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, anticipates an annual appreciation of 2%-3% for the RMB against the USD, with a total appreciation of over 30% over ten years [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, emphasizes that the decline of the US dollar index will drive the appreciation of the RMB, which is already evident [3] - Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist for China, Shan Hui, projects that the RMB will reach approximately 6.85 against the USD by the end of 2026, indicating a controlled impact of the appreciation on export companies [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period marks a historical turning point for China's financial system, emphasizing the construction of a financial powerhouse and the development of five key financial areas to support new productive forces and enhance the real economy [1][15]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization must align with the overall national development strategy and continue to advance as a crucial component of building a financial powerhouse [3][18]. - The internationalization of RMB is not only about trade settlement but also involves investment pricing and official reserve functions, which are currently limited compared to the "petrodollar" system [3][20]. - Institutional openness will be a key driver for RMB internationalization, particularly in the commodity sector, where RMB is expected to play a larger role in pricing [4][19]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - RMB internationalization faces two main constraints: the need for a stable economic foundation and the necessity to enrich the offshore financial asset system [5][20]. - The current supply of investable RMB assets abroad is limited, which restricts its use in international markets [7][21]. - The development of offshore bond markets is crucial, as they provide stable and appreciating investment options for foreign RMB holders [6][16]. Group 3: Offshore Financial System - A complete offshore financial system is essential for facilitating RMB internationalization, addressing the issue of RMB funds lacking investment opportunities post-settlement [7][21]. - The offshore bond market, particularly through instruments like dim sum bonds, needs to expand in scale and liquidity to enhance RMB's international presence [6][22]. - The design of offshore financial systems should be more open than onshore systems, serving as a "testing ground" for capital account liberalization [9][25]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The recent upgrades to the FT account system in the Pudong Free Trade Zone aim to enhance the offshore attributes of financial accounts, facilitating cross-border transactions [10][24]. - The focus should be on creating a robust offshore settlement platform that integrates effectively with the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) [12][26]. - The development of offshore reinsurance is also critical for supporting international business operations and managing risk exposure [27]. Group 5: Risk Management - There is a common misconception that offshore finance inherently increases risk; however, it can also provide important functions for risk hedging and diversification [28][29]. - The diversity of financial products in offshore markets can help market participants manage and mitigate risks effectively [28][29]. - Coordinated development between offshore and onshore financial systems is essential to avoid regulatory arbitrage and ensure effective risk management [29].

小李观察到，在这场变局中，人民币迎来了提升国际地位的重要机遇，但破局之路并非坦途。 这场货币格局的重构会给普通人和各国经济带来怎样的影响？人民币又该凭借什么在变局中找准方向、 实现突破？这两个问题值得深入探讨。 2026年的全球金融市场，正被一场货币变局悄然席卷。 美元作为长期主导全球的货币，信用危机信号不断升级，国际金价飙升、各国纷纷减持美元资产，全球 去美元化浪潮愈演愈烈。 美元信用危机 2026年美元信用危机的升级早已不是隐秘的信号，而是体现在全球金融市场的多个维度。 最直观的便是美国居高不下的债务压力，政府债务规模已达到38万亿美元，每年仅利息支出就超过1万 亿美元。 这意味着美国每赚5块钱财政收入，就有1块钱要用来还债务利息，这样的债务负担让市场对美元的信心 持续动摇。 美元的信用支撑也在不断弱化，曾经美元被称为"美金"，有黄金作为背书；后来依托石油贸易形成"石 油美元"体系，靠石油背书；如今只能依赖美国政府的信用，而不断扩大的财政赤字和激进的货币政 策，让这份信用越来越脆弱。 国际货币基金组织的数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已连续超10个季度低于60%，2025年第三 季度更是跌至56.92 ...