12月26日，黄金以强势姿态结束2025年，彰显出其作为全球避险资产的独特魅力。尽管2026年预测存在 分歧，从低位冷却到高位突破的各种情景均有可能，但结构性需求和宏观顺风的结合仍为黄金提供了坚 实基础。投资者需密切监测关键催化剂，以把握这一贵金属市场的未来机遇。当期美元指数的疲软（年 初以来下跌9%），以及市场对新任美联储主席鸽派立场的预期，进一步削弱了美元计价资产的吸引 力，为以美元计价的黄金提供了支撑。 市场的基本环境不变，所以看待黄金的方式不变，还是要强调，黄金一定是绝对的强势，看涨不猜顶， 虽然某些月份是震荡，某些时间点有调整，但大趋势，大方向丝毫没有动摇。因此，在强势中，一定是 坚持做多看涨。本周目前周一单边上涨，周二先涨后跌，再涨，z周三同样是先涨后跌，最低在4450， 这个走势和和价位跟杨呈发预测的一样，在绝对强势中，不能追高，而是等调整做合理的多单，所以周 三给出的4450多单，拿到了周五开盘，现在开盘，黄金继续刷新高点，上涨至4528附近，只要市场开 盘，每天都有一个新高，可见趋势的力量是多大。那么，周五维持前期的看法不变，继续看好黄金的多 头表现，但也不追高，等待黄金调整做多，特别是亚欧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD opened slightly lower at 7.0085, compared to the previous closing of 7.0066 [1][4] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.00370 as of 9:40 AM [1][4] - The RMB/USD central parity rate was set at 7.0358, an increase of 34 basis points from the previous day [2][4] Group 2 - The USD index fluctuated below the 98 mark, reported at 97.9243 as of 9:40 AM [3][5] - The Guolian Minsheng macro team believes the current fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are reasonable, driven by three main factors: a weaker USD, a rebound due to changing expectations, and concerns over seasonal patterns of concentrated settlement at year-end and early next year [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are strong, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that during the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the market trading atmosphere cools down. Also, after the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, the US dollar index is weak, and gold prices have risen this week. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity, and in China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The current high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: This week, gold prices have risen, with New York gold breaking through $4500 and Shanghai gold breaking through 1000 yuan. After the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, and the weak US dollar index is beneficial to gold prices. During the overseas Christmas holiday, the domestic trading atmosphere weakens, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity. In China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. During overseas holidays, Shanghai copper continues to operate strongly, and there is a risk of short - term price decline due to long - position liquidation. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

专题：离岸人民币升破7关口 为2024年以来首次！影响几何？ 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月26日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0358，上调34点。升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 人民币汇率"破7"具有基本面和政策端的双重基础 稳汇率政策也可能对汇率波动节奏产生重要影响。在人民银行稳汇率政策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率韧 性的背景下，国泰海通证券研究报告分析，未来人民币汇率与美元指数的脱钩将成为常态，人民币汇 率"破7"具有基本面和政策端的双重基础。需要关注基本面边际变化，中长期看，基本面才是支撑汇率 走强的核心变量。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.5%。到 明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 6.0%。 美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为84.5% 稳汇率政策也可能对汇率波动节奏产生重要影响。在人民银行稳汇率政策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率韧 性的背景下，国泰海通证券研究报告分析，未来人民币汇率与美元指数的脱钩将成为常态，人民币汇 率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan and its implications for the economy, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends rather than merely celebrating milestones like currency thresholds [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Appreciation and Economic Impact - The recent appreciation of the yuan is seen as a result of both domestic actions and external factors, particularly the weakening of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4][5]. - High-tech manufacturing investments are increasing, indicating a shift towards technology-driven economic growth rather than relying on low-cost labor [5][6]. - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to attract foreign investment, as foreign capital views Chinese assets as undervalued [6]. Group 2: Challenges for Businesses - Exporters are facing challenges due to fluctuating yuan values, which can erode profit margins and make it difficult to maintain competitive pricing against countries like Vietnam and India [7]. - Companies are urged to focus on technology and branding to avoid competing solely on price, as the market dynamics shift with the yuan's appreciation [7][10]. - The article warns that while currency appreciation may lower import costs, it also poses risks for industries that have not upgraded their value propositions [10]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The article suggests that a significant and sustained appreciation of the yuan is unlikely, with a preference for maintaining stability and allowing for market fluctuations [9]. - The expectation is for a dual-directional fluctuation of the yuan, rather than a one-sided trend, which will require businesses and individuals to adapt their financial strategies accordingly [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, breaking the 7 mark for the first time in 14 months, is attributed to a combination of factors including a weaker dollar, changing market expectations, and seasonal trends in currency settlement [3][22]. Financial Market and Asset Prices - The current appreciation of the RMB is viewed as a corrective move rather than excessive, with the increase being justified from the perspectives of the dollar and interest rate differentials [3][22]. Trade Perspective - China's trade surplus has reached historical highs, suggesting that the RMB may have been undervalued prior to its recent appreciation [6][24]. Inflation Considerations - The widening gap between nominal and real RMB exchange rates indicates that the currency has depreciated less than expected, with domestic low inflation compensating for this [9][27]. Short-term Market Dynamics - The influence of trade and inflation on the economy is considered less significant in the short term, with the need for further observation of the RMB's impact on economic variables [10][28]. Risks of Panic Settlement - There is concern regarding the potential for "panic settlement" leading to excessive appreciation of the RMB, which could create self-reinforcing market expectations [10][28]. Future Outlook on Exchange Rate - Projections suggest that a reasonable level for the USD/RMB exchange rate in the coming year could be around 6.8, factoring in more flexible central bank controls [12][30]. Central Bank Management - The recent adjustments to the RMB's midpoint rate indicate the central bank's intention to temper appreciation, with tools available for managing exchange rate stability [15][33]. Additional Monetary Tools - The central bank may also consider necessary measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions to counterbalance appreciation pressures [16][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting its implications for the economy and investment landscape, particularly in relation to A-shares and various industries [3][9][32]. Group 1: Yuan Appreciation Context - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the yuan is undervalued by nearly 30% against the US dollar, suggesting a potential for appreciation [3][4]. - The yuan's recent rise has been attributed to seasonal demand from export companies needing to settle accounts before year-end, leading to a technical appreciation [14][16]. - China's trade surplus has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, providing a strong foundation for the yuan's value [17][29]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 have contributed to a weaker US dollar, indirectly causing the yuan to appreciate [20][22]. - The global economic landscape, including trade tensions and shifts in investment flows, has also played a role in the yuan's valuation [24][26]. - The World Bank and IMF have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, reflecting confidence in the country's economic stability and growth potential [26][27]. Group 3: Impact on A-shares and Investment Strategies - Historical data shows a positive correlation between yuan appreciation and A-share performance, suggesting that the current trend may stimulate further growth in the stock market [33][34]. - The article notes that while yuan appreciation can benefit certain sectors, such as imports, it may negatively impact export-oriented industries due to increased pricing for foreign buyers [39][41]. - Investors are advised to consider the implications of yuan strength on their portfolios, particularly in terms of currency exposure and sector performance [42][44]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Trends - Analysts predict that the yuan's appreciation will be gradual and managed, with expectations of continued strength against the dollar in the coming years [48][50]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding broader trends rather than focusing solely on precise exchange rate predictions, encouraging investors to adapt to changing market conditions [50].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, breaking the 7 mark for the first time in 14 months, is seen as a reasonable adjustment influenced by a weaker dollar and changing market expectations, despite concerns about potential overvaluation [1][6]. Financial Market and Asset Prices - The current appreciation of the RMB is viewed as a corrective move rather than excessive, with the rise in value being justified from the perspectives of the dollar and interest rate differentials [1]. Trade Perspective - China's trade surplus has reached a historical high, suggesting that the RMB may have been undervalued prior to its recent appreciation [3]. Inflation Perspective - There is an increasing gap between the nominal and real exchange rates of the RMB, indicating that the currency has depreciated less than expected, with the shortfall being compensated by low domestic inflation [5]. Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The RMB's recent appreciation is attributed to three main factors: the weakening of the dollar, changes in market expectations following a trade easing period between China and the US, and seasonal patterns of net settlement at year-end [6]. Short-term Market Dynamics - While the exchange rate is a significant macroeconomic variable, its impact on the economy takes time to materialize, and policy responses may adjust accordingly to manage the effects of exchange rate fluctuations [8]. Concerns about Overvaluation - There is a concern regarding the risk of "panic settlement" leading to excessive appreciation of the RMB, which could create a self-reinforcing cycle of expectations and market behavior [8]. Future Outlook on Exchange Rate - The potential reasonable level for the USD/RMB exchange rate is estimated to be around 6.8, considering the central bank's more flexible management of the currency [12]. Central Bank's Management Approach - The recent adjustments in the RMB's midpoint rate indicate the central bank's intention to cool down the appreciation, with tools available for managing exchange rate stability, including market interventions and monetary policy adjustments [15].

管涛认为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开启。综合来看，明 年人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三 大因素：中美经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进及国内经济 恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升值或贬值的线性预期，双向波动 将成常态。 短期利多因素驱动人民币走强 本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。 管涛表示，美元指数11月曾升至100以上，随后持续回落并跌破98，"美元走弱为人民币升值提供了外部 支撑"。 汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明也表示，自11月下旬以来，美元指数跌幅约3%，非美货币普遍走 高，人民币涨幅与美元贬值幅度基本对应，充分体现汇率"跷跷板效应"。 12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性时刻——离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破"7"关口，2024年10月以来首 次收复这一重要整数关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇 率同步走强，逼近"7"关口，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来新高。 2025年以来，伴随 ...