Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commodity futures market showed overall stability on November 26, with major varieties experiencing mixed performance, particularly in precious metals which continued to rise due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts for silver and gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased for two consecutive trading days, with silver rising by 1.79% to close at 12,227 yuan per kilogram and gold increasing by 0.55% to close at 946.72 yuan per gram [1][1] - Analysts noted that the recent strength in Chinese precious metal futures prices is largely driven by increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled a dovish stance, with one official suggesting that the U.S. economy requires significant rate cuts and that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth [1][1] - Predictions indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, reflecting growing market sentiment [1][1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - A report from Ruida Futures highlights that, in the medium to long term, the increasing debt pressure in the U.S. makes gold an attractive asset as a hedge against dollar credit, supported by the ongoing enthusiasm for gold purchases from central banks [1][1]

| Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月26日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡，美国补发9月零售销售月率录得0.2%低于预期和前值，PPI基本符合预期，利率期货隐 含12月降息概率维持在80%以上。消息称乌克兰同意美国提出的和平协议条款、但一些细节仍未敲定，各方 将继续会谈。降息和地缘前景仍存不确定性，贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。明天美国感恩节假期，周初 初请失业金数据提前至今晚发布。 ★俄乌局势 -- 1美国官员称,乌克兰方面已原则同意美国提出的和平协议,但仍有一些条款需要讨论。乌 官员称，乌美已就日前在日内瓦讨论的和平协议核心条款达成共识。②泽连斯基：将继续与美国就和平计划 进行谈判。③特朗普：和平协议已非常接近达成，仅剩少数 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 946.720 | 0.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 12227 | +100.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188,763.00 | +7594.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 69,820.00 | -10102.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 341,225.00 +41536.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,643,769.00 | +274389.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 90423 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 531,211 | -9361↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 941.16 | -0.38↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 12,150.00 | 33.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.56 | -0.60↓ 沪银主力合约基差 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

昨夜美联储货币政策的表态延续鸽派，同时特朗普政府派系成员暗示后续将会削减美联储的影 响力，金银价格短期得到支撑。 美联储理事米兰鸽派表态，他认为不存在通货膨胀问题，当前经济形势需要大幅降息。市场对 于米兰的鸽派言论已不产生反应，但米兰同时表示希望放宽监管使得美联储资产负债表收缩， 且更多的转向美国国债，他同时表明"我们需要降低抵押贷款利率"。米兰讲话的内容呼应了 此前贝森特的表述，即大幅削减联储本身所具备的影响力。今晨，海外消息人士称特朗普的"亲 密盟友"哈塞特已成为美联储新任主席的最热门人选，而他后续的货币政策表态将偏向鸽派。 白银方面，上期所白银库存自 11 月 21 日后开始小幅回升，昨日库存量增加 8.27 吨至 540.57 吨，但当前沪银总体期限结构处于 back 状态（其中 AG2512 合约仍贴水 AG2601 合约），显示库 存低位的情况下白银现货依旧紧俏，而这从供需层面对于白银的基本面形成支撑。 【策略观点】 贵金属日报 2025-11-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongju ...

外部市场方面，美元指数小幅走高，原油价格稳定在每桶约58.50美元附近，10 年期美债收益率维持在 4.06%。当前贵金属价格仍由现货与期货共同决定，而12月期货合约因年末流动性集中而成为当前CME 成交最活跃的品种。 技术面上，12月黄金仍处于关键区间。多头正试图向上挑战11月高点4250.00美元，而空头短线关注的 是价格能否跌破4000.00美元关口。目前阻力位集中在4100.00美元和上周高点4134.30美元附近，支撑位 则落在4036.40美元和4018.10美元。迈汇的技术评分为6.5，认为未来两日的宏观数据将决定金价能否完 成方向性突破。 白银方面，尽管多头仍占据短期优势，但上涨动能有所减弱。市场关注其能否向纪录高点54415美元推 进，而下方的主要支撑位在47000美元区域。当前阻力位分别落在50.555美元和51.00美元，支撑位在 49.37美元与49.00美元，技术评分同样为6.5。由于白银波动幅度更大，迈汇提醒投资者需特别留意宏观 数据公布后可能出现的快速行情。 本周一美国午盘时段，黄金与白银价格双双走高，为因节假日而缩短的交易周带来一个较为平稳的开 局。整体市场保持观望情绪，投资者 ...

隔夜贵金属上涨。随着包括纽约联储主席以及美联储理事沃勒等多位美联储官员表态支持12月降息,利率市 场隐含降息概率升至80%。俄乌相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈,持续关注后续进展。市场 不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 ★俄乌局势—1美国总统特朗普: （谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生,乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。② 德国总理默茨：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。③鸟克兰官员：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起 草新的19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两国总统决定。④泽连斯基：结束冲突步骤清单超近可 行,将与特朗普商讨敏感议题 ★美联储—1理事沃勒:自美联储上次会议以来,现有数据显示变化不大,通胀并非大问题。我担心的是劳 动力市场，我主张在12月降息。②美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化，支持在12月降息。尽管戴利今年对 货币政策没有投票权,但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威尔持不同意见。3市场出现美联储应等待非农 公布,推迟12月议息时间的观点。 ★美国9月PCE将于12月5日发布,三季度GDP的二次预估数据发布仍待重新安排,初值取消发布。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | ...

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月25日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨1.48%，沪银主力收涨2.75%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低， 需求疲软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市 场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡 偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important precious metals with high demand in various industries, and their supply is highly concentrated, with significant supply - side impacts on prices. The supply - side factors such as production cuts, accidents, and disruptions in recycling channels can cause obvious price fluctuations [15]. - The demand for platinum and palladium is mainly in automotive catalysts, industry, jewelry, and medical fields. In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, the hydrogen energy industry is expected to become a new growth point for platinum and palladium consumption [37][47]. - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with a high degree of import dependence. The importance of the recycling end is increasing, but the supply of waste materials is tight, and domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition [32][82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Species Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs). Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm. Platinum has high melting point, good ductility, and stable chemical properties. Palladium can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [6][7][8]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: Platinum - group metal resources are mainly distributed in South Africa, Russia, the United States, and other regions. The deposits can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits, with magma - related processes being the main formation mechanism [10][13]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream of the platinum - group metal industry chain is dominated by a few mining and smelting integrated producers. The "oligopoly" structure makes the supply side dominant in price. The mining and extraction of platinum - group metals involve exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining [15][16]. - **Supply and Recycling of Platinum - Group Materials**: The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material components. The recycling of platinum - group metals is becoming increasingly important, but the supply of waste materials is tight [19][32]. - **Terminal Applications**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used in automotive catalysts, jewelry, industry, medical, and other fields. Automotive catalysts are the largest consumer area, with platinum's consumption structure being more diversified and over 80% of palladium used in automotive catalysts [37]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment channels include physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and stocks. Palladium investment demand is relatively small [49][50]. 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output decreased in 2024 due to various factors such as power outages and company restructurings [55]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons [65]. 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States are the main suppliers of global palladium. In 2024, Russia and South Africa's palladium output accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased slightly in 2024 [69][71]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global palladium are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. In 2024, the global palladium demand decreased by 4% to 254.2 tons, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [73][77]. 3.5 China's Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - **Resource Endowment**: China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, mainly distributed in Gansu, Yunnan, and other regions. In 2022, China's platinum - group metal reserves were 80.9 tons, and the resource reserves are decreasing [82]. - **Import Dependence**: China's platinum and palladium resources have a high degree of import dependence. In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium [86][88][92]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2024, China consumed 64.4 tons of platinum and 68.9 tons of palladium. The demand for platinum in the automotive catalyst and chemical industries decreased, while the demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field decreased significantly [97][101]. - **Import and Export and Taxes**: The import tariffs and value - added taxes of platinum and palladium vary according to the processing state. China's platinum is mainly imported from South Africa, and palladium is mainly imported from Russia and South Africa [110][111][114]. 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review No detailed price review content is provided in the text, only a mention of historical price trends. 3.7 Guangzhou Futures Exchange Platinum and Palladium Futures - **Contract Text**: On November 7, 2025, the GZFE issued announcements on the palladium futures and palladium options contracts and related rules [126]. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - **Option Contracts**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.9 Delivery Business - **Delivery Time**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Product Form and Premium/Discount**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Unit**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Handling Fee**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehousing and Out - of - Warehouse Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Physical Delivery Method**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Quality Standard**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Factory Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.10 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Areas, Factories, and Warehouses - **Platinum Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Palladium Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Delivery Warehouses**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.11 Platinum and Palladium Designated Quality Inspection Institutions and Inspection Fees - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Quality Inspection Institution List**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Platinum Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Palladium Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.12 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Brands - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text.

异动点评：美联储降息预期反转贵金属重拾涨势 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） | 2025年FOMC票委派别 | 官员最新观点 | | --- | --- | | 台灣成 | 米兰:数据支持降息,美联储应更加偏鸽 | | | 沃勒：支持在美联储12月会议上再次"预防性"降息25个BP | | | 鲍曼:支持继续降息以应对劳动力市场放缓及经济增长趋弱的局势 | | 障 科成 | 施密德：认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大，这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的 | | | 结构件变化, 但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 | | | 穆萨莱姆:随着政策利率接近中性利率,美联储需要保持谨慎 | | | 古尔斯比：或许不愿继续降息周期，在通胀数据缺席的情况下对降息更感不安，需要保持谨慎 | | 中间派 | 鲍威尔:12月降息并非既定结论,受美国政府持续停摆影响,数据获取受限存在不确定性 | | | 威廉姆斯：美联储 "石坑期"仍有进一步下调联邦基金利率区间的空间,以使政策立场更接近中性水平。就 | | | 业走弱的风险上升,而通胀恶化的风险已 ...