Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to show growth in June, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remaining at 52, indicating expansion since it is above the neutral level of 50 [1][3] - Key inflation indicators reached their highest levels since July 2022, with the raw materials price index rising significantly by 5.4 to 70, marking the largest monthly increase in four years [3][5] - The strong job market is supporting consumer demand, but supply chain issues and tariff policies are driving up production costs, leading many companies to raise prices [5][6] Group 1 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI held steady at 52 in June, the highest since February, indicating ongoing expansion in the sector [1] - The raw materials price index increased by 5.4 to 70, reflecting significant cost pressures on manufacturers [3] - Employment growth in the manufacturing sector reached its fastest pace in a year, driven by strong domestic demand [3][5] Group 2 - Companies are facing challenges from supply chain issues and rising costs due to tariffs, which may sustain inflationary pressures [5] - The adjustment of inventory strategies by manufacturers will impact production plans in the coming months, providing insights into economic trends [6] - The Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation due to the concurrent expansion and price pressures in the manufacturing sector [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined, trading around 98.00, while gold prices are currently at $3327.46 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - Gold reached a high of $3336.95 per ounce and a low of $3320.41 per ounce during the trading session [1] - Current prices for various gold products include spot gold at $3327.46 per ounce, gold T+D at ¥771.70 per gram, paper gold at ¥766.75 per gram, and Shanghai gold futures at ¥773.94 per gram [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Trump administration's plan to raise tariffs this summer could significantly increase price levels, with initial effects expected in June and July economic data [3] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's policy decisions are based on economic data rather than political pressure, maintaining a cautious approach due to uncertainties from the tariff dispute [3] - The Fed is closely monitoring inflation dynamics, with potential implications for interest rate decisions, including the possibility of earlier rate cuts if inflation pressures are controlled [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently supported by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3327 per ounce [4] - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is around 49, indicating that gold's ability to stay above the 50-day SMA remains uncertain [4] - If gold fails to close above the 50-day SMA, it may retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3297 per ounce, with further declines potentially leading to support levels at $3250 and $3232 per ounce [4]

瑞典央行会议纪要：瑞典央行行长特登表示，仍然认为当前的贸易冲突不太可能引发瑞典出现强烈的通 胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran may serve as a significant turning point, leading to a reduction in global market risk aversion and a subsequent rise in asset prices, particularly in global stock markets while oil and gold prices decline [1][2]. Direct Impact - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices has been eliminated, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices due to reduced fears of supply disruptions from escalating conflicts in the Middle East [2]. - As risk aversion diminishes, funds are flowing back from safe-haven assets like gold into higher-growth risk assets such as global equities, indicating a lower level of market uncertainty [2]. Transmission Effects - The easing of tensions in the Middle East may trigger a transmission chain in the global macroeconomic landscape [3]. - The transmission chain can be summarized as follows: 1. Easing Middle East tensions → Oil price decline [4] 2. Oil price decline → Reduced inflationary pressures in the U.S., as oil prices significantly influence U.S. inflation metrics [5]. 3. Reduced inflation → Increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation has been a barrier to rate cuts [6]. 4. Enhanced rate cut expectations → Improved global liquidity, particularly benefiting emerging markets, with Hong Kong stocks potentially attracting more international capital due to their low valuation [6]. Market Opportunities - In light of improved liquidity and rising risk appetite, Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a significant "allocation window" [6]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong, which includes leading companies in internet, consumer electronics, and biotechnology, is likely to benefit from the anticipated global liquidity improvement and represents higher growth potential [6][8]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has shown strong growth, with a total return of 227% since the end of 2014, indicating its potential as a tool for capturing structural opportunities in the Hong Kong technology sector [8].

Core Insights - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that due to the tendency of the US, Europe, and emerging economies towards accommodative policies, Japan's economy may experience unexpected growth or face inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - The potential for unexpected growth in Japan's economy is linked to global monetary policies [1] - The accommodative stance of major economies could lead to inflationary pressures in Japan [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：预计从六月份开始，关税引发的通胀压力将逐渐显现。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们预计关税引发的通胀压力将会进一步显现。不知道有多少成本会转嫁给消费 者。 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro is consolidating near the weekly high above 1.1600 against the US Dollar [1] - The British Pound is stabilizing around 1.3600 amid the latest rally [1] - The Japanese Yen continues its strong rebound from the lowest point since May 13, supported by ongoing buying pressure [1] - The Australian Dollar is recovering towards 0.6500 due to improved global risk sentiment [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has risen over 1%, rebounding approximately 2.5% from Monday's low [1] - The US Dollar is weakening against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee have indicated support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with services and composite PMIs also hitting 3-month highs [3] - France's June manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [3] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous estimate of 0.1% contraction [3] - ECB officials have suggested potential rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [3] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [4] - Japanese officials support a revised bond issuance plan [5] - The Prime Minister aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD maintains strong momentum, having broken the significant resistance level at 1.3520, with targets at 1.3600 and 1.3655 [6] - The USD/JPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average support, testing the critical support range of 145.40-145.00 [6] - The US Dollar Index remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but a short-term breakout above the 50-day moving average could trigger a short-covering rally [6]

机构依然预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 据新华社，美国东部时间6月23日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期12天的冲突 即将结束。 这一出人意料的消息引爆全球金融市场，此前因避险需求而大涨的美元被抛售，油价大跌。截至北京时间24日16:30左右，美元指数报98.13，美元/人民币报 7.1778，美元/离岸人民币报7.1760，WTI油价报66.31美元/桶。 高盛表示，由于供给大于需求，仍维持年末对布伦特油价60美元以下的预测。同时，接受记者采访的外资行交易员和分析师普遍认为，如果中东冲突出现真 正的缓和甚至终结迹象，特朗普可能会将注意力重新转向他眼中的"敌人"——美联储主席鲍威尔，打压美元的结构性因素仍然存在。从中期来看，机构依然 预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 WTI原油期货 ↓ 66.37 -2.14 (-3.12%) d=d=0+0+0+0+0+0 a 4 * 0 = 0 # + = T 4+4 + 80= 2 + III __ | 18 "25 早前 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 8.95%，报 67.23 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约跌 8.37%，报 69.16 美元/桶。美国总统特朗普对伊朗提前通知打击 美军基地表示感谢，并称是时候实现和平了，市场对中东局势的担忧缓解。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3384.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货涨0.09%报36.05美元/盎司。中东地缘政治紧张局势升级， 伊朗与美国冲突加剧市场避险需求。美联储官员释放鸽派信号，美元走弱为金 价提供支撑。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.11%报 2686.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 1.67%报 2592.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.63%报 9694.50 美元/吨。铜价维持震 荡，全球铜精矿供应偏紧，新能源汽车需求强劲但空调行业季节性转弱。宏观 环境压制市场，美联储维持限制性利率政策，国际贸易博弈成为焦点。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯 ...