中东地缘风险有所缓和，对黄金的影响可以忽略，这样的上涨几乎没有大的调整，5-7月份犹豫没上车的，后面只能硬着头皮追，越追金价越高，越高越 多人追，这就是索罗斯所谓的：反身性。 十年前，戴个大金链子别人觉得又LOW又土，如今戴着大金链子别人满眼的羡慕和尊重，时代变了，观念也要跟着变。 现在黄金的疯狂程度比一季度还要猛，今年一季度金价上涨超30%，不少多头还是有些犹豫，这一次完全不同，任何位置都觉得是低位，900多的黄金更 多的人往里冲。 另外，美联储主席鲍威尔凌晨讲话，重点是强调关于就业市场的担忧，对于未来降息的态度没有改变，即使短期CPI通胀有所反弹，美联储也不打算结束 降息，保持之前降息的方向不变。 一阵狂风吹过，吓的大伙一身冷汗，牛市多暴跌难延续。 昨晚中午，金价快速下跌100美元，从4180美元跌到了4090美元附近，人民币黄金瞬间掉了20元/克。 这一轮牛市，远超所有人认知，金价距离1000元越来越近，疯狂的程度历史罕见，所有人都在涌入黄金市场，想尽办法加仓做多。 美联储过去几次拖延降息的时间，主要担心贸易冲突引发的通胀反弹，随着关税冲突的落地，鲍威尔也不再强硬表示非要等通胀降到2%，而是选择小范 围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex policy environment, balancing inflation control and employment support, with indications that the current tightening cycle may be nearing its end and a shift towards "measured easing" is possible [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - Current data suggests that employment and inflation trends remain stable, with economic growth slightly stronger than expected, despite signs of labor market weakness such as hiring slowdowns and reduced job vacancies [5][26]. - The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, slightly above the beginning of the year, primarily driven by tariff-induced price increases, while housing service inflation is declining [3][25]. Monetary Policy Strategy - Powell indicated that the Fed may soon halt balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management to avoid market volatility similar to the 2019 repo market disruptions [4][7][21]. - The Fed's dual strategy involves cautious interest rate cuts and balance sheet adjustments to alleviate liquidity pressures without overly relying on rate reductions [4][9]. Market Reactions - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's signals regarding potential rate cuts and balance sheet normalization, with expectations of one to two rate cuts this year, though internal opinions within the Fed vary [7][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the balance of policies rather than betting on a single approach, as the Fed's strategy aims to respond to economic realities and manage market expectations [9][10]. Financial Stability - Powell highlighted the critical role of the reserve system, warning that failure to maintain interest payments on reserves could undermine the Fed's control over rates and financial stability [8][24]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, with a focus on maintaining a stable financial environment [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver prices are rising due to escalating US-China trade tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - As of Wednesday, gold spot prices increased nearly 1%, hovering around $4180 per ounce, with a peak at $4185, marking a historical high [1] - Silver spot prices also rose by 1.5% to $52.2 per ounce after experiencing volatility on Tuesday [1] Group 2 - US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in weeks, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicating a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month [1] - The risk-averse sentiment in the market, driven by the US-China trade situation and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve, has enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - In the silver market, a liquidity shortage in London has triggered a global rush for physical silver, causing the benchmark spot price to rise significantly above New York futures prices [1] Group 3 - The four major precious metals have seen price increases ranging from 58% to 80% this year, leading the commodity market [2] - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to continuous central bank purchases, increased holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, with expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% [4] - The International Energy Agency has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth this year [4] Economic Data - In September, automobile sales in China reached 3.226 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [4] - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2144.00, up 10.74% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22521.70, down 0.76%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46270.46, up 0.44% [5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6644.31, down 0.16% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25441.35, down 1.73% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62% [5]

周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元延续下滑跌破99关口，最新美元指数报98.933，跌幅0.11%，周二 （10月14日）晚间美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔释放信号称，10月降息仍在考虑之中，量化紧缩政策也可 能接近尾声，美元随后震荡走软，美元指数险守99关口上方，最终收跌0.21%，报99.05。 美国政府停摆导致美联储制定货币政策所依赖的关键经济数据中断发布，这也意味着市场失去了预判美 联储动向的常规工具。在市场普遍认为"无数据即无政策行动"的预期下——至少对美联储即将召开的会 议如此，这种不确定性反而助推美元走强。 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美指周二上涨在99.50之下遇阻，下跌在98.95之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有 可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.35之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.85--98.70之 间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.30--99.35，短线重要阻力在99.60--99.65。今天美指短线支持在98.85- -98.90，短线重要支持在98.70--98.75。 鲍威尔指出停摆前数据显示经济增长可能超预期，但他同时强调"美国就业市场下行风险已有所加剧"。 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold reached a record high of $4180 per ounce before a sharp decline, dropping nearly $90 from the peak, but ultimately closed up 0.77% at $4142.15 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of gains [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that market liquidity is tightening and that the balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end in the coming months; he noted that while recent economic activity data has exceeded expectations, it has not yet translated into a recovery in hiring, raising concerns about employment market risks [1] - Fed's Bowman continues to expect two more rate cuts by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - The IEA maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 699,000 barrels per day for 2026, while predicting a record supply surplus next year [1] - The IMF has raised its global growth forecast for 2025, citing that trade wars may hinder global output [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached record highs due to escalating US-China trade tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with spot gold rising nearly 1% to around $4180 per ounce, previously hitting a high of $4185 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also increased, with spot silver rising 1.5% to $52.2 per ounce after experiencing significant volatility [1] - The US Treasury yields have dropped to their lowest levels in weeks, and Fed Chairman Powell indicated a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [3] Group 2 - Risk aversion in the market has heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the ongoing government shutdown [3] - A liquidity shortage in the London silver market has triggered a global rush for physical silver, causing the benchmark spot price to rise significantly above New York futures prices [3] - The prices of the four major precious metals have increased between 58% to 80% this year, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and the Fed's rate cuts [3]

Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) increased by 29.17 points, or 0.93%, reaching 3163.16 [1] - Key stocks that performed well include Aeon, Mazda Motor, and Konami, with notable gains [1][2] Currency and Economic Policy - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated that monetary policy will be determined by the Bank of Japan, emphasizing the current focus on inflation rather than deflation [2] - Kato noted a recent weakening of the yen, highlighting the government's close monitoring of excessive or disorderly fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [3] International Relations and Trade - Former President Trump has adopted a more moderate stance on tariffs, and U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed a planned meeting with Asian leaders in South Korea at the end of the month, boosting market confidence [6] - The potential meeting is seen as an opportunity to ease global trade relations [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials might halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [6] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested that the Fed should continue lowering interest rates this year to support the labor market while maintaining sufficient rates to control inflation [6]

据公开消息，美联储在10月的会议将在28日至29日举行。目前市场投资者普遍相信美联储将再次降息25 个基点，即0.25%，以完成其促进市场就业和控制通胀率在2%的目标。 此外，鲍威尔还表示，美联储可能"在未来几个月内"停止量化紧缩操作，即允许其在应对危机的量化宽 松操作下购买的资产流失，并表示美联储"正在密切关注各种指标，以告知这一决定"。 鲍威尔还表示，即便当前美国联邦政府因停摆而无法获得劳工统计局的新数据，目前私人机构发布的就 业市场指标以及美联储内部研究也足以表明美国就业市场正在降温。鲍威尔称，"现有证据"表明"裁员 和招聘人数都保持在低位"，而"家庭对就业机会的看法和企业对招聘难度的看法继续呈下降趋势"。有 数据显示，9月份美国企业裁员数量达到了32000人。 这意味着，尽管许多经济学家担心特朗普政府的关税政策将引发美国经济新一轮通胀，但鲍威尔在"降 息"的货币政策态度上正在变得更加温和。而美联储在9月份的会议已经将利率下调至4.00%-4.25%。 据《金融时报》10月14日报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在参加美国全国商业经济协会在费城举办的一场活动 时发布警告称，美国劳动力市场的就业下行风险还在上升，而这 ...

Group 1 - Japanese stock market opened high with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rising over 1% [1][2] - Key stocks such as Aeon, Mazda, and Konami Group showed significant gains [1][3] - The current economic situation differs from the Abe administration, with inflation being the primary concern rather than deflation [4] Group 2 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, noted a recent weakening of the yen and emphasized the importance of stable exchange rates reflecting fundamentals [4] - The South Korean Composite Index also rose over 1%, reaching 3604.85 points, driven by positive market sentiment regarding U.S.-Korea relations [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed a planned meeting with Asian leaders in South Korea, which is expected to ease global trade tensions [4]