Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International suggests leveraging the current market pullback to focus on dual main lines of policy and industry resonance, particularly in sectors like biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power, as well as benefiting from policies in upstream cyclical industries like steel, cement, and coal [1][6] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 5.3%, with a notable recovery in decision-making confidence, reducing the necessity for strong short-term stimulus [3] - Structural concerns are highlighted, including a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.9% and a negative deflation index for nine consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing price pressures [3] - Economic recovery is uneven, with strong export investment but pressure on consumption and real estate [3] Market Conditions - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted PE has returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, with risk premiums at historical lows and AH premium indices at a six-year low, indicating limited room for valuation expansion [1][5] - The market is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak economic data, limited strong stimulus measures, and potential liquidity contraction from U.S. Treasury issuance [1][5] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from policy changes and technological breakthroughs, including biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power [1][6] - It also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and targeted policies to support new infrastructure and improve supply-side conditions [3][5] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economic outlook shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer and private investment growth, raising concerns about a potential recession [4] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in September, which could influence Hong Kong's risk premium and market conditions [4][5] Capital Flows - As of August 1, 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a net inflow of HKD 879 billion, surpassing last year's total, although there is a notable divergence in international capital flows [5] - Passive funds have seen inflows, while active funds have experienced outflows, indicating a need for price stabilization and resolution of real estate risks for systemic foreign capital return [5]

版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 中国人民银行（央行） 由于担忧经济长期停滞以及中美贸易摩擦激化，外资的投资意愿停滞不前。4～6月外资的直 接投资还不到按季度计算达到顶峰2022年1～3月的1成…… 中国国家外汇管理局8月8日公布的4～6月国际收支数据显示，外资企业的直接投资净流入87 亿美元。新建工厂等新增投资额超过撤出和业务缩小带来的撤资额，但净流入额仍处于低水 平。 有分析认为，由于担忧经济长期停滞以及中美贸易摩擦激化，外资的投资意愿停滞不前。4～ 6月外资的直接投资还不到按季度计算达到顶峰2022年1～3月的1成。 外资的对华直接投资从上海封城导致经济严重混乱的2022年4～6月开始大幅下降。2023年7 ～9月首次出现了显示净流出的负增长。2024年4～6月和7～9月也呈负增长，但2025年1～ 3月为净流入。 美国5月已将对华追加关税下调逾100%，但目前仍适用30%的对华关税，企业的对美出口成 本增加。日本第一生命经济研究所的首席经济学家西浜彻指出，"美国对迂回出口的警惕也在 加强，企业不得不重新调整全体供应链"。 中国经济正在放缓，对高增长的期待正在消退 ...

第六节、全球血压监测装置投资情况分析 第一章、行业概况 第一节、血压监测装置行业简介 第二节、血压监测装置产品类型及生产企业 第三节、血压监测装置下游应用分布格局 第四节、全球血压监测装置主要生产企业概况 第五节、全球血压监测装置行业投资和发展前景分析 一、投资结构 二、投资规模 三、投资增速 四、主要投资项目简介 五、中国市场主要投资项目简介 第二章、全球血压监测装置供需状况及预测 第一节、全球血压监测装置供需现状及预测 一、全球血压监测装置产能、产量、产能利用率及发展趋势 二、全球血压监测装置产销概况及产销率 三、全球各类型血压监测装置产量及预测 四、全球各类型血压监测装置产值及预测 第二节、中国血压监测装置供需现状及预测 一、中国血压监测装置产能、产量、产能利用率及发展趋势 二、中国血压监测装置产销概况及产销率 三、中国各类型血压监测装置产量及预测（-2026-2026年） 四、中国各类型血压监测装置产值及预测（-2026-2026年） 第三章、全球血压监测装置竞争格局分析（产量、产值及主要企业） 第一节、全球血压监测装置主要企业产量、产值及市场份额 一、全球市场血压监测装置主要企业产量数据（2018- ...

Group 1: Overall Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 15.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3%, while imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, declining by 1.6%, though the decline was narrower by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The Customs spokesperson noted that despite a complex external environment, foreign trade maintained a positive upward trend [1] Group 2: High-Tech Product Exports - In the first seven months, exports of electromechanical products reached 9.18 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.3% and accounting for 60% of total exports [2] - High-tech products such as integrated circuits, ships, and automobiles saw significant export growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 21.8%, ship exports by 16.8%, and automobile exports by 10.9% [2] - The increase in high-tech product exports is attributed to expanded production capacity and enhanced competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor sector amid rising global demand [2] Group 3: Labor-Intensive Product Exports - The share of labor-intensive products in China's foreign trade exports is gradually declining, with some experiencing significant fluctuations in export performance [3] - In early 2024, major labor-intensive products like plastics, bags, textiles, toys, and furniture saw double-digit growth, but by the first quarter of this year, most entered a phase of negative growth [3] Group 4: Structural Changes in Foreign Trade - The overall trade data for the first seven months indicates a positive trend, but labor-intensive products face challenges due to tariffs and competition from Southeast Asian countries [4] - Trade protectionism from developed economies and low-cost competition from Southeast Asia are exerting pressure on labor-intensive product exports [4] - There is a need for product upgrades and value addition to counteract these pressures, with emerging markets in Europe, Japan, Africa, and Latin America providing new opportunities for textile and apparel exports [4] Group 5: Transition in Export Strategy - The increase in high-tech product exports and the slowdown in labor-intensive product exports reflect a proactive transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade, particularly in manufacturing [5] - The shift from price competition to technology competition is evident, although there remains potential for labor-intensive products through technological and brand enhancements [5]

Group 1 - The event "Decoding Overseas Markets, Supply and Demand Service Matching Exchange Meeting" was successfully held to support enterprises in expanding overseas markets, focusing on the specific needs of Fujian enterprises in Southeast Asia [1][3] - The event gathered representatives from various business associations and highlighted the collaborative service model of "government-enterprise-business association" [1][3] - The meeting received positive feedback from participating enterprises, emphasizing the importance of providing precise and effective support for Fujian companies to "go global" [1] Group 2 - The Executive Vice President of Shenzhen Fujian Chamber of Commerce emphasized the unique conditions provided by Qianhai for Fujian enterprises to expand internationally, leveraging its innovative system and international resource aggregation capabilities [3] - Qianhai's efficient business environment and comprehensive cross-border service system are seen as strong support for Fujian businesses [3] Group 3 - A representative from Shenzhen Fujian Fengze Chamber of Commerce shared insights on the opportunities and challenges faced by enterprises in the overseas market, particularly in resin crafts and textiles [5] - The representative highlighted the alignment of Qianhai's professional service resources with the needs of Fengze enterprises, aiming for deeper cooperation to help "Fengze manufacturing" enter international markets [5] Group 4 - A representative from Beijing Qiancheng (Shenzhen) Law Firm discussed the profound changes in the international trade environment, which pose multiple pressures on Chinese enterprises, including cost increases and market share shrinkage [7] - The representative proposed a comprehensive risk control system combining legal, commercial, and tax aspects for enterprises going abroad [7] Group 5 - The Chairman of Shenzhen Shenghe Lingnan Investment Co., Ltd. noted that the US-China trade friction reflects a competition of economic scale, suggesting that traditional strategies for manufacturing relocation to avoid tariffs are no longer effective in Southeast Asia [9] - The Chairman recommended exploring emerging e-commerce markets in Russia and Africa, emphasizing the importance of capital operations to access mature channels [9] Group 6 - The event also focused on strengthening exchanges between Hong Kong and Qianhai, with initiatives to enhance youth development and promote collaboration through various activities [11] - The goal is to provide a broader learning platform for Hong Kong youth and enhance their understanding of national development [11] Group 7 - The event facilitated practical discussions among participating enterprises regarding the challenges they face in going abroad and the support they need from Qianhai [13] - There was a vibrant exchange of experiences and needs, leading to proactive business matching among representatives [13] Group 8 - The Shenzhen Qianhai Outbound E-Station is set to launch in July 2024, aiming to create a one-stop comprehensive service platform for enterprises going abroad [15] - As of May 9, 2025, the platform has served over 800 enterprises and attracted more than 180 professional service providers, forming a service system covering the entire lifecycle of enterprise outbound activities [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Economic Growth Target**: China's economic growth target for 2025 is maintained at 5%, with a growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. The fiscal easing policy will continue in the second half, but the impact on nominal GDP and PPI may be limited due to moderate demand-side policies [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is showing signs of weakness, with significant inventory pressure despite some recovery in transaction volumes in core cities. The need to stabilize buyer expectations and improve product quality is emphasized [2][38][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations have been postponed, with a slightly hawkish stance from the U.S. The introduction of secondary tariffs on imported goose oil has caused market fluctuations, indicating ongoing sensitivity to trade tensions [1][6]. - **Policy Outlook**: The political bureau meeting expressed optimism about the economic situation, emphasizing policy coherence and stability. Incremental policies may become evident in Q4, focusing on improving fund efficiency [1][12][19]. - **Demand-Side Policies**: Demand-side policies are present but are less systematic compared to supply-side reforms. The impact on PPI and GDP is expected to be moderate [5][7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Capital Market Sentiment**: The capital market is expected to be more attractive and inclusive, with potential adjustments in IPO thresholds and margin trading data. Structural opportunities are highlighted despite a lack of clear performance drivers [1][23][28]. - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market faces challenges such as high inventory levels and declining prices, with a significant inventory of nearly 500 million square meters in 80 key cities, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 28 months [39][40]. - **Future Planning**: The upcoming five-year plan will dominate macroeconomic policy, focusing on high-level security and quality development, with energy, electricity, national security, and technological independence as key indicators [1][19]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Real Estate**: The market is stabilizing, but the pressure from inventory remains high. Core cities are showing some recovery, but overall, the market needs to address buyer confidence and product quality [38][41][42]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector is expected to recover faster than real estate, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption. The focus is on stable ROE and dividend yields in consumer and financial sectors [32][36]. - **Technology Sector**: The technology sector remains crucial, with strong support policies and potential for growth in areas like AI and cloud computing. The sector is seen as undervalued compared to global peers [31][37]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, with specific attention to the real estate market's challenges and the potential for recovery in consumer and technology sectors. The emphasis on policy stability and structural opportunities in the capital market suggests a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape.

据看看新闻报道，7月30日，美国财政部长贝森特放话，威胁对持续购买俄油的中国加征最高500%关 税。中方当天两次回应，态度明确。 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开展新一轮会谈。双方当时达成共识，将继 续延长此前的关税休战期。外界本以为这是中美经贸关系回暖的信号，没成想短短两天后，贝森特就抛 出关税威胁。这种谈判桌上刚承诺"暂时不打"，转身就亮屠刀的操作，让人咋舌。 贝森特的威胁不是空穴来风。他提到，美国国会正推动相关立法，允许总统对购买受制裁俄罗斯石油的 国家征收二级关税，还称这一措施得到多个盟友支持。明眼人都能看出，美国此举是想借关税大棒，逼 迫中国停止购买俄油，进而卡住俄罗斯的能源命脉。 中国敢如此硬气，底气源于中俄扎实的能源合作根基。对中国来说，作为人口大国和全球主要能源消费 国，能源安全是国家发展的重中之重，绝不能被别人拿捏。要保障能源安全，多元化的能源来源是关 键，俄罗斯就是中国能源进口多元化战略中不可或缺的可靠伙伴。 对俄罗斯而言，受美西方经济封锁和战事影响，急需稳定的出口市场。中国持续增长的能源需求，与俄 罗斯丰富的油气资源形成天然互补，合作顺理成章。2023年，俄罗斯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing tensions in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of trade negotiations and energy imports from Russia, with the U.S. acknowledging its limited leverage over China [1][3][5] - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. Treasury Secretary's admission that the U.S. lacks sufficient leverage to pressure China into abandoning Russian oil, indicating a shift in the dynamics of global trade and energy markets [3][5][11] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has previously had to make concessions in trade negotiations, as evidenced by the outcome of the tariff disputes, which suggests that the notion of a hard decoupling between the U.S. and China is overstated [3][5][11] Group 2 - The article outlines Trump's recent actions to impose new tariffs on several countries, excluding China, which may indicate a strategic approach to isolate China by treating its allies differently [7][9] - It notes the contrasting tariff rates imposed on Pakistan and India, suggesting a shift in U.S. foreign policy aimed at pressuring India to choose sides in the geopolitical landscape [9][11] - The article also highlights the relatively low tariff imposed on Brazil, indicating a calculated decision by the U.S. to avoid escalating tensions with a key member of the BRICS group while focusing on China as the primary target [9][11]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between PE (Polyethylene) and PP (Polypropylene) is strong, with concerns over rising propane prices due to tariffs impacting PP costs, leading to a narrowing price gap that even turned negative at one point [1] - Since May, as trade tensions eased, the price gap between PE and PP has been gradually returning to fundamentals, suggesting a potential resurgence in PE's bullish positioning [1] Group 2: Supply Side - As of July, the traditional maintenance season for polyolefins is coming to an end, with both PP and PE operating rates rebounding to around 85% [2] - There are more maintenance plans for PE than for PP before the National Day holiday, with 12 PE production lines (over 3 million tons capacity) scheduled for maintenance compared to 7 PP lines (230,000 tons capacity) [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The second half of the year is traditionally a peak demand season for polyolefins, with PE's peak demand starting in late July and expected to last until November, primarily driven by agricultural needs [6][3] - In contrast, PP's peak demand is more aligned with consumer spending during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and year-end holidays, making it more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 4: Import and Export Trends - Domestic PP capacity has expanded significantly, leading to reduced imports and a situation where exports exceed imports, resulting in a declining reliance on PP imports [7] - Conversely, PE still faces high import dependency due to a shortage of domestic high-end supply, although PE imports have decreased significantly this year, dropping to below 1 million tons in June, the lowest in seven years [7] Group 5: Summary - Trade tensions have caused the PE and PP price gap to hit a three-year low, but as these tensions diminish, expectations for PE in terms of supply, demand, and import/export dynamics are stronger than for PP, indicating a potential widening of the price gap in the future [8]