撰 文 / A B R 编 辑 部 设计 / 赵昊然 6月15日，父亲节，在今年第一号台风"蝴蝶"的陪伴下，第十七届轩辕汽车蓝皮书论坛"决断"来到 第三天。这天的话题围绕营销、AI、场景，嘉宾发言涉及飞行汽车、车路网云、智能辅助驾驶、人 形机器人、Robotaxi、价格战、合资反击、行业内卷等行业现象与课题。 以下是当天上台嘉宾的分享精华摘录。 有时遇到大事，要当机立断，但也会因自己能力不够或智慧不够，导致决断不了 或者做不了决断，那时会通过长时间的重视来掩盖，是用战术上的勤奋来掩盖战 略上的懒惰。现在我们很大程度上是删除力不够。删除力不够的原因，要么理解 力不够，要么就是有各种利益的牵挂，导致没法决断 。 贾可 轩辕汽车蓝皮书论坛主席 轩辕同学校长 世界新汽车技术合作生态协会理事长 盯着对手竞争就是一种红海竞争，竞争对手是不能告诉你答案的，只有消费者才 能告诉你，靠你非常细致的洞察力、感受力。乔布斯说最好的市场调查就是站在 镜子面前看看自己，你要什么，而不是友商又在生产什么了。友商常用一种你没 有意识到的方式把你往坑里带，虽然他自己也到坑里去了，我们整个行业现在最 怕就是大家在用一种特殊的互害模式，互相误导 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of previous policies are gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales in China [2] - In the first week of June, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 20.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with significant declines in first- and second-tier cities [2] - The average daily sales area of second-hand houses in 11 sample cities was 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters, although the transaction share of second-hand houses has rebounded [2] Group 2 - Domestic price pressures continue, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices [3][4] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in May, with gasoline prices decreasing by 3.8% [3] - Agricultural product prices remained stable with a slight decline, with month-on-month decreases ranging from 0.3% to 1.0% [5] Group 3 - In May, automobile retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, while wholesale sales rose by 14% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating resilience in the automotive market [9] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 14%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [10] - Despite maintaining sales resilience, automobile prices showed weakness, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% in May, up from 23.7% in April [10] Group 4 - The funding chain for construction projects has shown improvement, with the funding availability rate for sample construction sites reaching 59.13% as of June 3, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.26 percentage points [11][14] - Non-residential construction projects saw an increase of 0.53 percentage points, while residential construction projects experienced a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [14] - The improvement in funding availability aligns with some upstream production data, such as a cement clinker capacity utilization rate of 61.0% and an increase in the operating rate of asphalt plants to 31.3% [14]

Core Viewpoint - The price war among luxury car brands BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) has led to significant price reductions, with some models of the "34C" (BMW 3 Series, Audi A4L, Benz C-Class) now available for under 200,000 yuan, although actual purchase conditions may complicate this [1][3][10]. Price Reduction Details - The Benz C-Class has seen the largest price drop, with the C200L model's price slashed from a guide price of 334,800 yuan to as low as 167,400 yuan in Beijing [3][4]. - Audi A4L's entry-level model has also dropped below 200,000 yuan, with some regions reporting prices as low as 180,000 yuan, although high-end models remain above 230,000 yuan [5][6]. - BMW's 325Li has reportedly fallen below 200,000 yuan, but consumer preference leans towards the more powerful 330Li model [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The aggressive pricing strategy has led to a consensus among dealers that low-spec models are increasingly difficult to sell, prompting a shift towards higher-spec models [7][10]. - The overall decline in prices has affected other models within the BBA lineup, including SUVs and higher-end sedans, pushing them below historical price thresholds [8][9]. Sales Performance - Sales figures for 2024 indicate a significant drop for Benz C-Class and Audi A4L, with projected sales of 44,000 and 26,000 units respectively, marking declines of 16% and 27% [12]. - The financial strain on dealers has led to reports of dealership closures and ownership changes, with only 35% of dealerships meeting sales targets in the first half of the year [12][13]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to market pressures, BBA is reducing its dealer networks and focusing on higher-end models, with plans to discontinue lower-end offerings [15][18]. - New models are being introduced, such as the Audi A5L and BMW iX3, which aim to rejuvenate brand appeal and market presence [19][20]. Innovation and Future Outlook - BBA brands are facing challenges in innovation, with traditional product cycles failing to keep pace with the rapid development of new energy vehicles [14][17]. - Collaborations with tech companies are being pursued to enhance digital services and vehicle technology, indicating a shift towards integrating more "Chinese car-making genes" into their offerings [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry mirrors that of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with both sectors facing challenges from price wars and cost-cutting measures that threaten innovation and overall industry health [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price war in the PV sector has led to a significant decline in prices across the supply chain, with prices for polysilicon and components dropping nearly 30%, despite a 28.3% year-on-year increase in new installations [2][3]. - Major PV companies, including Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have reported substantial revenue declines and losses, indicating that the aggressive pricing strategies are unsustainable [2][3]. - The NEV industry is currently experiencing a similar price war, with many companies unable to differentiate their products, leading to increased losses and cash flow issues [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Dynamics - The PV industry has faced severe overcapacity, driven by both market competition and local government incentives, which has historically led to inefficiencies and a poor market experience [3][4]. - The NEV sector is beginning to see similar patterns, with calls from industry leaders to halt new factory constructions and instead utilize existing overcapacity [3][4]. - The PV industry is now encouraging mergers and acquisitions to consolidate and eliminate low-quality capacity, a trend that is expected to emerge in the NEV sector as well [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - The lack of intellectual property protection has hindered innovation in the PV sector, with new technologies quickly becoming common knowledge and not providing competitive advantages to early innovators [5][6]. - The NEV industry is undergoing a transformation that emphasizes the importance of innovation, particularly in software and artificial intelligence, necessitating both investment in R&D and protection of innovative outcomes [5][6]. - A supportive market environment that encourages and protects innovation is essential for the long-term success of both the PV and NEV industries in the global market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry mirrors that of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with both sectors facing challenges from price wars and cost-cutting measures that threaten innovation and overall profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price war in the PV sector has led to a significant decline in prices across the supply chain, with prices for polysilicon and components dropping nearly 30%, despite a 28.3% year-on-year increase in new installations [2]. - Major PV companies, including Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have reported substantial revenue declines and losses, indicating that the aggressive pricing strategies are unsustainable [2][3]. - The NEV industry is experiencing similar pressures, with some companies facing increasing losses and cash flow issues, highlighting the risks of relying solely on price competition [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Dynamics - The PV industry has seen severe overcapacity, driven by both market competition and local government incentives, which has historically led to inefficiencies and market saturation [4]. - The NEV sector is beginning to echo these patterns, with calls from industry leaders for a halt to new factory constructions in favor of utilizing existing overcapacity [4][5]. - Mergers and acquisitions are being encouraged in both industries as a means to consolidate and eliminate low-quality capacity, supported by recent regulatory changes [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - The lack of intellectual property protection has hindered innovation in the PV sector, where new technologies quickly become widely adopted without adequate rewards for the original innovators [6][7]. - The NEV industry must prioritize protecting innovation and fostering a supportive environment for technological advancements to avoid repeating the mistakes of the PV sector [6][7]. - A collaborative approach involving policy support is essential for creating a market environment that encourages and protects innovation across both industries [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The current challenges faced by the Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry, particularly regarding price wars and overcapacity, serve as a cautionary tale for the automotive industry, which is experiencing similar pressures in its transition to electric and smart vehicles [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The PV industry has seen a significant increase in production, with polysilicon, battery cells, and modules all growing over 10% year-on-year in 2024, while new installations reached 277.57 GW, a 28.3% increase [2]. - Despite the growth in production and demand, prices for key components in the PV supply chain have dropped nearly 30%, leading to a decline in overall industry revenue [2]. - Major PV companies, including Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have reported substantial revenue declines and losses, indicating a troubling trend in profitability [2][3]. Group 2: Price Wars and Competition - The automotive industry is currently engaged in aggressive price competition, which has not yet resulted in the same level of industry-wide losses seen in the PV sector, but poses risks as many companies struggle to differentiate their products [2][3]. - The phenomenon of price wars is often accompanied by homogeneous capacity expansion, which can lead to inefficiencies and market saturation [3][4]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - The lack of intellectual property protection for innovators in the PV sector has hindered the ability of pioneering companies to capitalize on their technological advancements, leading to rapid diffusion of innovations across competitors [6][7]. - The automotive industry must prioritize both research and development and the protection of innovative outcomes to avoid repeating the mistakes of the PV sector [6][7]. Group 4: Future Directions - Both the PV and automotive industries are encouraged to pursue mergers and acquisitions to eliminate low-quality capacity and enhance market efficiency, supported by policy initiatives [4][5]. - A conducive market environment that fosters and protects innovation is essential for the sustainable growth of both industries, allowing them to leverage China's manufacturing advantages on a global scale [7].

Core Viewpoint - The commitment of automotive companies to limit payment terms to no more than 60 days reflects a proactive response to national calls, demonstrating social responsibility and corporate accountability, which is crucial for building a collaborative and sustainable development ecosystem in the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The automotive industry in China is currently experiencing a critical period of high-quality development, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology urging companies to strengthen industry self-discipline [1] - Over 17 automotive companies, including major players like China FAW Group and BAIC Group, have pledged to shorten payment terms to suppliers, addressing the long-standing issue of extended payment cycles that have negatively impacted cash flow for smaller suppliers [1][2] - Historically, domestic automotive brands have relied on commercial acceptance bills or electronic receivables, leading to payment terms extending from 90 days to over 180 days due to competitive pressures and price wars [1][2] Group 2: Payment Terms and Supplier Impact - The prolonged payment cycles have created a "pass-the-parcel" effect throughout the supply chain, exacerbating financial pressures on automotive suppliers [2] - Many suppliers are facing intense competition during the bidding process, which has led to a decline in profit margins and increased financial strain, with some unable to sustain operations due to cash flow issues [3] - The recent implementation of the "Regulations on Payment to Small and Medium Enterprises" mandates that large enterprises must pay small and medium suppliers within 60 days, prohibiting the use of non-cash payment methods that extend payment periods [4][8] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Calls for Rationality - The automotive industry is grappling with a significant decline in profitability, with reported profits dropping by 8% year-on-year in 2024, and profit margins falling to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7] - The ongoing price wars have led to a deterioration of the industry ecosystem, with calls from experts and regulatory bodies for a return to rational competition and the establishment of stable, long-term relationships between manufacturers and suppliers [6][7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated plans to intensify efforts to address "involutionary" competition in the automotive sector, aiming to optimize industry structure and ensure fair market practices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a positive trend with increased sales and production, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement and new model launches, leading to a "not dull" market even in traditionally slow seasons [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [1]. - From January to May 2025, automotive production and sales totaled 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 10.9% [1]. - Domestic automotive sales grew by 11.7% to 10.258 million units, while exports increased by 7.9% to 2.49 million units, indicating robust demand in both domestic and international markets [1]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In May 2025, NEVs accounted for 48.7% of total automotive sales, with 1.307 million units sold, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [2]. - Domestic sales of NE passenger vehicles reached 1.03 million units, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles for the first time, with a market share of 54.7% [2][3]. - NEV exports totaled 212,000 units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 120%, with pure electric vehicle exports growing by 79.8% [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The market share of NEVs in the domestic passenger vehicle segment has reached a high level, while traditional fuel vehicles, particularly in the A-class segment, are experiencing a decline [3]. - The penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands is 74.9%, compared to 26.3% for luxury brands and only 6.2% for mainstream joint ventures [3]. - The concentration of the NEV market is increasing, with the top 15 manufacturers accounting for 95.2% of total NEV sales, reflecting a 1.9 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Profitability Concerns - Despite positive sales growth, the automotive industry faces challenges with declining profitability, characterized by a "growth without profit" scenario [4][5]. - The automotive manufacturing sector reported profits of 462.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 8% year-on-year, with profit margins decreasing to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. - Price wars are negatively impacting the industry's profitability, leading to cost-cutting measures that could harm long-term sustainability [5][6]. Group 5: Global Expansion Strategies - In response to domestic market saturation and intense competition, automotive companies are increasingly looking to expand into overseas markets as a growth strategy [6]. - Key strategies for success in international markets include localizing operations, leveraging technological innovations, and optimizing global business models based on efficiencies gained in the Chinese market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price war in the Chinese automotive industry, highlighting the competitive strategies of various companies, particularly BYD, and the implications for suppliers and dealers in the market [2][12][24]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - The recent price war in the automotive sector was triggered by BYD's significant price cuts on its models, leading to a ripple effect where multiple brands followed suit with their own price reductions [4][6]. - The Chinese government has implemented regulations to shorten payment terms for suppliers to 60 days, which has been adopted by at least 17 major car manufacturers [3][12]. - The average selling price of new energy vehicles has been declining, with projections showing a drop from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 164,000 yuan by 2025 [11][12]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - BYD has aggressively targeted the sub-100,000 yuan market, with models like the Qin PLUS DM-i seeing prices drop from 99,800 yuan to 63,800 yuan [5][7]. - The company has integrated advanced driving assistance features into its lower-priced models, creating a competitive edge that other manufacturers are struggling to match [5][6]. - The article notes that BYD's cost advantages stem from its vertical integration, allowing it to produce a significant portion of its components in-house, which reduces reliance on external suppliers [7][19]. Group 3: Impact on Suppliers and Dealers - The pressure on suppliers has increased as car manufacturers demand shorter payment terms and more aggressive pricing strategies, leading to a shift in the dynamics of supplier relationships [13][14]. - Dealers are facing significant challenges due to the price war, often selling vehicles below the suggested retail price, which creates financial strain and leads to a high rate of dealership closures [15][16]. - The article highlights that many dealers are now operating under a "negative margin" model, where the selling price is lower than the purchase price, exacerbating their financial difficulties [16][20]. Group 4: Government Policies and Market Effects - Government subsidies for new energy vehicles have played a crucial role in supporting the industry, with significant funds allocated to encourage consumer purchases [17][19]. - The "trade-in" policy introduced in 2024 aims to stimulate sales further, particularly benefiting companies like BYD that dominate the electric vehicle market [20][21]. - The article emphasizes that while these policies have fostered growth, they have also contributed to an oversupply in the market, intensifying the current price competition [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing concerns over high leverage expansion and chaotic competition, with a call for regulatory measures to address "involution" in the sector [2][8] Group 1: Industry Concerns - Weijianjun's statement about the automotive industry having a "Hengda" reflects worries about high leverage and disordered competition [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced plans to intensify efforts to regulate "involution" in the automotive sector [2] - The term "next Hengda" is seen as a sensationalist narrative, while the real issue is the involutionary competition affecting the automotive and other industries [2][8] Group 2: Financial Comparisons - Li Yunfei from BYD refuted the "car circle Hengda" claim by comparing financial metrics of domestic and international car manufacturers, emphasizing the differences in financial structures [3] - The financial reports of car manufacturers and real estate companies are fundamentally different, making direct comparisons unprofessional [4][6] - The automotive industry operates on a cash flow model primarily from vehicle sales, contrasting with the high-leverage financing model of real estate [6][7] Group 3: Price Wars and Profitability - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, leading to a decline in industry profit margins from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in Q1 2025, below the average for manufacturing [8] - The prevalence of price wars has resulted in a significant number of models being sold at reduced prices, with 70% of over 60 discounted models being driven by homogenous competition [8] - The ongoing price competition is reminiscent of the solar industry, which faced similar challenges leading to widespread losses [8][9] Group 4: Innovation and Market Dynamics - The rapid diffusion of technology in the automotive sector is creating an "innovator's dilemma," where advancements are quickly replicated, undermining competitive advantages [9][10] - The automotive industry must shift from price competition to value competition to build sustainable competitive advantages and avoid overcapacity [10] - Protecting innovation and moving away from involution is increasingly recognized as essential for the industry's future [10]