Market Overview - The Japanese stock market showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing a slight decline of 0.02% as of the report [3] - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.29%, reaching 3124.07 points [9] Individual Stock Performance - Sumitomo Pharma saw a significant increase of over 8%, while Omron, Seiko, and Casio rose by more than 5% [5] - Notable declines were observed in companies such as Fujitsu, Nintendo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [5] - Specific stock performance data includes: - Sumitomo Pharma: 987.0 JPY, up 8.82%, market cap 392.7 billion JPY [6] - Omron: 4048.0 JPY, up 6.86%, market cap 834.9 billion JPY [6] - Seiko: 1180.5 JPY, up 5.54%, market cap 413.4 billion JPY [6] - Casio: 1161.5 JPY, up 5.50%, market cap 276.1 billion JPY [6] - Nissan Motor experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 3% [5] Economic Insights - Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks, suggesting that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [7] - New Bank of Japan committee member, Junko Koizumi, hinted at a possible upward adjustment of inflation expectations this month, which could pave the way for another interest rate increase this year [8] Trade and Export Concerns in South Korea - A trade expert in South Korea predicted a significant reduction in exports of major products if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented as planned [9] - Forecasts indicate that exports in the automotive and steel sectors may decline by 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively, from July to December [10] - The expert urged South Korean companies to consider relocating production bases overseas or adjusting export prices to mitigate the impact of high tariffs [10] - There is a call for the South Korean government and industries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and expand exports to regions such as the EU, ASEAN, and India, while accelerating the transition to high-tech industries [10]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to be cautious about inflation risks and suggests that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Nakaso highlights strong wage growth, the ability of companies to pass on costs, and rising inflation expectations as indicators that price pressures in Japan may be greater than policymakers anticipate [1] - He disagrees with the Bank of Japan officials' assessment that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside, asserting that there are upward risks to inflation, particularly due to labor shortages potentially leading to significant wage increases next year [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - Eurozone inflation for June was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, reaching the European Central Bank's medium-term target [2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that while inflation has reached the target, the task is not complete, and warned of geopolitical risks affecting economic stability [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates later this year, with officials indicating that a rate cut is appropriate based on data [2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the vulnerabilities posed by the growth of stablecoins and their potential impact on monetary trust [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% amid economic challenges [7] Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - The Polish central bank forecasts inflation to sustainably return to the target range of 2.5%±1 percentage point by Q1 2026, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2025 [6] - The ECB is increasing its focus on climate-related economic risks, linking extreme weather events to inflation and GDP impacts [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that a weaker U.S. dollar may lead to increased capital flows into emerging markets, improving financing conditions and asset returns [8] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming central bank meetings and speeches for potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly regarding inflation and employment data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that any interest rate hike measures will depend on three factors related to inflation dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation dynamics to determine the timing and extent of any potential interest rate increases [1] Inflation Dynamics - Ueda emphasized that the decision on interest rates will hinge on three specific elements of inflation, although the details of these elements were not disclosed in the article [1]

智通财经7月1日电，日本央行委员增一行表示，近期经济形势表明，日本央行目前不宜急于加息，而应 审慎决策，密切关注各项经济数据。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：认为没有必要通过加息来应对通胀。 ...

新华财经北京6月27日电（崔凯）日本总务省发布数据显示，东京都6月份剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者价 格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低于市场预期的3.3%，较5月份3.6%的涨幅明显放缓。这是东京通胀四 个月以来首次出现下降趋势，为日本央行和政府在通胀高烧不退的背景下带来一丝喘息。 核心中的"核心"通胀仍具黏性 剔除生鲜食品和能源价格后的"核心核心"CPI同比上涨3.1%，虽然低于5月份的3.3%，但仍高于日本央 行2%的目标。这一指标被视为衡量国内需求驱动型通胀的关键风向标，显示出服务业和内需主导的价 格压力仍未显著缓解。 服务业通胀率维持在2.1%，表明企业在劳动力成本上升的背景下，仍在通过提高服务价格将成本转嫁 给消费者。这也强化了市场对日本央行未来继续收紧货币政策的预期。 央行加息预期持续发酵，政治压力与经济现实交织 尽管通胀出现降温迹象，但其水平仍远高于日本央行设定的2%目标。多位央行官员近期已明确表示， 若全球贸易不确定性缓解，不排除进一步加息的可能性。尤其是审议委员田村直树强调："如果通胀上 行风险加剧，日本央行可能需要作为物价稳定的守护者采取果断行动。" 能源价格回落+政策干预，推动通胀降温 目 ...

Group 1 - Tokyo's inflation has slowed for the first time in four months, primarily due to weakening energy prices and a reduction in water fees ahead of national elections, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising by 3.1% year-on-year, below economists' median estimate of 3.3% [1] - Overall inflation rate also stands at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in May, remaining significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, indicating that the central bank will continue to consider the timing of future interest rate hikes [1] - Electricity prices increased by 5.3% year-on-year, a notable slowdown from the previous month's 10.8% rise, while gasoline prices fell by 1% compared to a 6.3% increase last month [1] Group 2 - The upcoming elections are expected to focus on the cost of living crisis, with Prime Minister Kishida promising cash handouts to alleviate public pressure, while opposition parties are advocating for a reduction in consumption tax [2] - Economists predict that inflation pressures will intensify due to persistently high oil prices following the conflict in the Middle East, maintaining expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July [2] - The government has implemented measures to address rising rice prices, which saw a year-on-year increase of 90.6% in June, slightly down from 93.7% in May, while overall food prices excluding fresh items rose by 7.2%, the fastest growth since October 2023 [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's June meeting minutes indicate that policymakers generally view inflation as exceeding expectations, with the most hawkish member warning that rising inflation risks may necessitate interest rate hikes before trade uncertainties are resolved [3] - Analysts emphasize the importance of consumer spending aligning with price and wage increases, although there is a possibility of consumer stagnation or slight decline, suggesting that current data may not support an immediate rate hike [3]

晚间，美股集体高开。 | 43254.26 | No | 20077 34 20077 34 | 6125.10 | રૂ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 +0.63% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 +0.52% | 标普500指数 +0.54% | | | | | | | | 他表示，需要几个月的时间来明确评估关税的影响，其对通胀的影响可能仅限于温和程度。 美国重磅数据公布 此外，他称，特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔的继任者不会对FOMC产生任何影响。 美国商务部经济分析局于当地时间6月26日公布的数据显示，美国2025年第一季度实际国内生产总值 （GDP）经第三次修正后，环比按年率计算萎缩0.5%。 此外，6月26日美国公布了5月商品贸易数据，美国5月商品贸易逆差初值为966亿美元。详细数据显示， 美国5月商品出口环比下降5.2%，创2020年以来最大降幅。 此外，美国上周初请失业金人数23.6万人，预期24.5万人，前值从24.5万人修正为24.6万人；四周均值 24.5万人，前值从24.55万人修正为24.575万人。至6月14日当周续请失业金人数197.4万人， ...

美联储巴尔金：在通胀趋缓的背景下，加息似乎已不再是主要话题。 ...