Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields exhibits a "see-saw effect," with rising yields due to long-term U.S. deficit concerns, yet gold prices are strengthening, indicating deep-seated market anxiety about the U.S. dollar's credit system [1] - Despite the upward pressure on gold prices from rising Treasury yields, concerns over inflation and debt default risks are driving gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gold investment is complex due to its multiple attributes as a commodity, currency, and safe-haven asset; margin trading in the Shanghai gold futures market allows investors to leverage their positions, but this can amplify both gains and losses [3] - As of May 23, 2025, the price difference between London and Shanghai gold indicates a structural opportunity, with a spread of 12.9% requiring real-time monitoring of exchange rates and capital flow policies [3] Group 3: Risk Assessment - Current risks in the gold market can be summarized as three uncertainties: potential hawkish shifts in Federal Reserve policy, U.S. government debt issues leading to reduced safe-haven demand, and decreased physical demand from emerging market central banks [5] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices faced profit-taking pressure after reaching $3,300.80, indicating volatility in high price regions [5] Group 4: Historical Data Comparison - Comparing current gold prices with historical cycles reveals significant differences; the current support logic for gold is more diversified than in 2011, with low opportunity costs for holding gold as indicated by TIPS yields [6] Group 5: Structural Changes in the Market - The development of the Shanghai gold market highlights structural changes, with daily trading volumes increasing from under 50 tons in 2011 to over 300 tons in 2025, reflecting the rise of Asian market pricing power [8] Group 6: Conclusion and Navigation - Investors need a "multi-dimensional compass" to navigate the current gold market, focusing on macro indicators like Federal Reserve decisions and micro signals such as the Shanghai-London price spread [9] - Risk managers should assess the volatility contribution of gold assets in their portfolios to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Name: Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report - Date: May 23, 2025 [1] 2. Option Volatility Ranking - The report provides a ranking of options based on at-the-money option implied volatility, 30-day historical volatility, and daily true range for various underlying assets. For example, ao2506 ranks first in at-the-money option implied volatility with 2.4%, and sm507 ranks first in daily true range with 5.1% [3][5]. 3. Core Views - At-the-money option implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations of the underlying asset. Higher values indicate a greater likelihood of significant price movements, which can be of interest to trend traders. - The 30-day historical volatility reflects the actual price movements of the underlying asset in the past. If this value is smaller than the implied volatility, it may suggest that option prices are relatively expensive, which can be of interest to option sellers. - The daily true range reflects the intraday price movements of the underlying asset, which can be of interest to intraday traders [6]. 4. Exchange Option Analysis 4.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options - **上证50ETF (SSE 50 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 836,591 contracts, the open interest is 745,131 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.05, and the weighted average implied volatility is 14.36%. - **Volatility Trading**: Suggestions include selling options in months with higher implied volatility curves and buying options in months with lower curves. For options in the same month, sell options with higher points on the curve and buy those with lower points. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 44.6% when trading at the settlement price and 9.17% when trading at the counterparty price [19][22][24][28][30]. - **华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF (Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 674,867 contracts, the open interest is 529,907 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.89, and the weighted average implied volatility is 14.92%. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as for the SSE 50 ETF. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 58.7% when trading at the settlement price and 11.1% when trading at the counterparty price [31][33][37][41][43]. - **南方中证500ETF (Southern CSI 500 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,105,783 contracts, the open interest is 578,593 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.04, and the weighted average implied volatility is 19.3%. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as above. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 92.4% when trading at the settlement price and 23.2% when trading at the counterparty price [44][47][50][54][56]. - **华夏上证科创板50ETF (Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 402,764 contracts, the open interest is 753,563 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.34, and the weighted average implied volatility is 28.18%. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as above. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 91.5% when trading at the settlement price and 13.3% when trading at the counterparty price [57][59][63][66][67]. - **易方达上证科创板50ETF (E Fund SSE STAR Market 50 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 94,593 contracts, the open interest is 212,957 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.18, and the weighted average implied volatility is 31.7%. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as above. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 145% when trading at the settlement price and 19.4% when trading at the counterparty price [68][70][72][76][78]. 4.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options - **嘉实沪深300ETF (Harvest CSI 300 ETF)**: - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 124,797 contracts, the open interest is 142,389 contracts, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.06, and the weighted average implied volatility is 15.38%. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as above. - **Risk-Free Arbitrage**: No specific arbitrage yield data is provided in the current text [79][82].

日本央行官员称，不急于介入干预债市。 当地时间周四，特朗普的全面减税法案，即所谓的"大美丽法案"在众议院以215票对214票的微弱优势通 过。这一法案的通过加剧了全球投资者的财政担忧，叠加此前美国主权信用评级被最后一家主要机构穆 迪调降，全球债券的抛售正在加速。 不同于4月关税忧虑导致投资者抛美债的同时，买入日本、德国国债，此次全球投资者开始无差别抛售 全球一些主要经济体的长期债券，日本、德国和欧元区长债同样遭遇抛售。 虽然面临抛压，但日本央行官员周四最新表态称，不急于介入干预债市。不过，一些市场人士担心日债 收益率攀升恐令美债雪上加霜。 日本政府债券收益率曲线的迅速陡峭化有几个原因，但关键原因是结构性的。美国银行表示，日本人寿 保险公司过去为了遵守某些偿付能力规定，而大量购买长期债券，但现在他们不再这样做了，因为它们 基本上能够符合监管标准。此外，瓦拉坦表示，日本央行收紧货币政策的倾向与其财政困境相冲突，也 助长了日债抛售。近期日本一些政界人士也效仿美欧，呼吁增加财政支出。 盈透证券首席策略师索尼克（Steve Sosnick）在发给一财记者的机构观点中写道："整体来说，全球投 资者在目前的环境下，都并不太 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 套利：中性。 风险 现货偏紧贸易商挺价 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.90 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至22650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌5元/吨至200元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22620元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨25元/吨至170元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌100元/ 吨至22640元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至190元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-22沪锌主力合约开于22515元/吨，收于22455元/吨，较前一交易日下跌130元/吨，全天交易日 成交82262手，较前一交易日减少16240手，全天交易日持仓59658手，较前一交易日减少7517手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22535元/吨，最低点达到22365元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-22，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.04万吨，较上周同期减少-0.59万吨。截止2025-05-22，LME 锌库存为156225吨，较上一交易日减 ...

巴菲特用"五分钟决策"收购通用再保险，看似冒险，实则是数十年深耕保险业的厚积薄发。 能力圈的本质并非"知道多少"，而是"明确拒绝什么"。 ——拆解"能力圈"与护城河的底层逻辑 ——1998年的演讲中，巴菲特用可口可乐、箭牌口香糖等案例，诠释了"能力圈"的威力。 "看不懂"的智慧：1999年科技股泡沫中，巴菲特因不投互联网公司被嘲"过时"，但2000年泡沫破裂时，伯克希尔逆势盈利10%。他坦言："我们错过了微 软，但避免了99%的科技股灾难。" 日本商社的"地缘套利"：2023年巴菲特投资日本五大商社（三井、三菱等），因其掌控全球20%大宗商品贸易，商业模式百年未变，完美契合"简单、传 统、容易"的原则。 5分钟决策的底气：收购通用再保险（180亿美元）前，巴菲特未踏足总部。他依靠的是数十年对保险行业的深度认知，以及"护城河是否变宽"的核心判 断。 - - - - - - - - 产品无味觉记忆 生理依赖型护城河（如可口可乐）：无味觉记忆、成瘾性设计，2023年全球日均销量达19亿瓶。 低成本绝对优势 成本碾压型护城河（如GEICO）：通过直销模式降低运营成本，车险费率比行业低15%，市占率从1996年的2.1 ...

2025 年 05 月 22 日 证券研究报告 | 私募基金专题报告 可转债投资中如何实现绝对收益型策 略？ 华宝聚合系列科普文章 分析师：程秉哲 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 研究助理：张君睿 邮箱：zhangjunrui@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 1、《市场中性策略多头端解析：量化选股 模型如何决定你的收益上限—华宝聚合 系列科普文章》2025-05-15 2、《从隐含波动率到价格的预测—期权 策略系列观察（三）》2024-08-20 3、《隐含波动率跟踪与期权产品分类— 期权策略系列观察（二）》2024-07-31 4、《期权价值的理论与现实—期权策略 系列观察（一）》2024-07-05 投资要点 风险提示：本报告根据历史公开数据及定期报告整理，存在失效风险，不代表 对基金未来资产配置情况的预测，不构成投资建议； 基金的过往业绩及基金经 理管理其他产品的历史业绩不代表未来表现；本报告涉及私募基金相关内容， 若您非合格投资者，请勿阅读本报告； 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-22 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ao2506 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.9% | 8 | | sn2506 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.9% | 37 | 1.2% | 28 | | ps2507 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.8% | 7 | 2.2% | 7 | | sc2507 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.1% | 2 | 4.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/21 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/20 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/19 | -189.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/16 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...

隐形炸弹？美国的银行与私募信贷机构的深度联系可能引爆下一轮系统性风险。 5月21日，波士顿联储最新发布的研究报告显示，由Blackstone、Apollo和Ares等机构主导的私募信贷行业与传统银行业建立了越来越紧密的联 系，这可能在经济衰退期间对美国金融体系构成系统性风险。 波士顿联储经济学家José Fillat、Mattia Landoni、John Levin和Christina Wang在报告中警告："银行与私募信贷市场的广泛联系可能令人担忧，因为 这些联系间接使银行面临与私人信贷贷款相关的高风险。" 据介绍，美国私募信贷市场近年来呈现爆炸式增长，市场规模从2000年的460亿美元扩张至2023年约1万亿美元，尤其在2019年后增长更为迅猛。 "为了应对不利的宏观经济冲击，如果足够多的私募信贷贷款人提取银行信贷额度，私募信贷贷款人对银行流动性的依赖可能对银行业 构成系统性流动性风险。" 值得注意的是，波士顿联储承认，银行提供给私募信贷基金的融资仍被视为比2008年金融危机前提供的杠杆收购贷款更安全。当前，银行对基金 的贷款由数十或数百笔较小的贷款支持，最大限度地降低了他们对任何单一业务的风险。 这一 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of investors is to pursue excess returns, even in the realm of passive investment strategies like index replication [1] - The concept of enhanced index funds has evolved since the introduction of the first index mutual fund by Vanguard in 1976, with significant developments in the 1980s and 1990s [1][2] - Enhanced index products have become a significant choice for investors in China since their introduction in 2002, allowing for additional returns while maintaining similar risk-return characteristics to benchmark indices [1][2] Group 2 - The STAR Market Index, launched in 2019, has become a focal point for investors due to its concentration of high-growth, high-potential technology companies [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the STAR Market Index includes 569 sample stocks with a total market capitalization exceeding 6.5 trillion yuan, with a significant weight in the semiconductor sector at 36.5% [2][3] - The launch of the STAR Market Index has prompted over 10 fund companies to establish related ETF products, with total assets exceeding 15 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The manager of the Huashang STAR Market Enhanced Index Fund emphasizes the importance of technology in national strategy and the potential for exponential growth in tech companies amid a new cycle of technological innovation [3][4] - Historical performance data indicates that most equity enhanced index funds have achieved positive excess returns over medium to long-term periods [5][6] - The average excess returns for equity enhanced index funds over the past ten, seven, and five years are notably significant, at 60.73%, 28.21%, and 21.75% respectively [6] Group 4 - The rise of artificial intelligence has provided enhanced strategies with more tools, allowing for better adaptability to rapidly changing markets through a multi-factor and AI-enabled quantitative stock selection model [6][7] - The model addresses issues such as factor collinearity and non-linearity, potentially offering higher and more stable excess returns compared to traditional quantitative strategies [7] - The Huashang STAR Market Enhanced Index Fund is managed by two fund managers with different backgrounds, enhancing its investment strategy [10][12]