但这一局面正急剧恶化。今年4月，特朗普宣布对莱索托征收高达50%的"对等关税"——这是全球范围 内最高的税率之一。尽管相关措施随后被暂时搁置，但特朗普警告称，除非与莱索托达成单独的协议， 否则将于8月1日重新实施这些关税。 关税引发关厂潮 作为一名刺绣工，塞莱索过去八年里一直在Precious Garments工作，原本对工作的稳定性从未有过太多 担忧。 但到今年4月，美国突然宣布对莱索托征收高额关税，塞莱索也因此遭到失业的威胁。"他们告诉我们， 公司可能随时关闭，这和关税有关"。 Precious Garments已通知员工每月只能工作两周，工资也因此被削减了一半。对于塞莱索来说，这无疑 是雪上加霜。她不仅要抚养自己的孩子和年迈的母亲，还要照顾已故妹妹留下的两个孩子。 Precious Garments方面对于这一问题的回应是，尽管工厂目前"没有明确的关闭计划"，但管理层已警告 称，"如果贸易情况不改变，他们将不得不作出关门的决定"。 塞莱索呼吁莱索托政府与美国展开对话，努力寻求关税争议的解决方案。尽管她仍然保有工作，但她也 清楚，很多人并没有这么幸运。 在南部非洲内陆小国莱索托，纺织业正面临前所未有的困境 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-India trade negotiations is the significant differences in trade policies, particularly in sectors like automobiles, steel, and agriculture [1][4] - The US Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, emphasized the need for more negotiations to assess India's willingness to lower trade barriers and open markets [1][3] - The US aims to secure greater market access for its agricultural products in India, while India is concerned about the impact on its farmers and seeks to maintain protective tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The bilateral trade volume between India and the US is projected to be approximately $129 billion in 2024, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for the US [3] - India's exports to the US increased by 23.53% to $8.3 billion in June, while imports decreased by 10.61% to around $4 billion [3] - India is pushing for the removal of additional tariffs and seeking concessions in labor-intensive sectors, aiming for competitive tariff levels compared to other Asian countries [5]

美国政府正在迅速结束与欧盟、日本等主要贸易伙伴的磋商。 目前与加拿大、墨西哥、印度、韩国等国尚未达成协议，特朗普27日在与欧盟达成协议后表示，"正在 考虑与另外3~4个国家达成协议"。 特朗普7月28日在自己的社交媒体上表示，"已指示贸易团队"与泰国和柬埔寨重启贸易谈判。两国已就 边境附近的军事冲突达成停火协议。此前特朗普曾呼吁两国停火。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿 美国的对等关税将从8月1日起适用新税率。特朗普表示"将是15%或20%"…… 美国总统特朗普7月28日就各国统一适用的对等关税的基本税率表示"将是15%或20%"。对等关税将从8 月1日起适用新税率。据称对象是未能与美国进行单独谈判的发展中国家等，具体税率将于近期同时通 知。 特朗普在出访的英国北部苏格兰与英国首相斯塔默举行会谈时，回答了记者的提问。他表示，基本税 率"将在15%至20%的范围内，将是其中一个数字"。 特朗普此前一直表明方针称，将向非洲国家及其他贸易量和经济规模较小、无法与美国谈判的国家同时 通报"尽可能压低的税率"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-29 商品波动加剧，关注中美经贸会谈 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月28日，A 股全天震荡上涨，三大股指集体收高，创业板涨近1%，医药股全天活跃。商品方面，国内商品期货大面积下跌， 焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂等纷纷跌停，也使得A股钢铁、煤炭板块走势。债市方面，国内期货普 遍走高，30年期主力合约涨0.56%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、 ...

Group 1 - Companies in Taiwan are facing increasing pressure due to rising exchange rates, order fluctuations, and tariff issues, leading to labor costs being passed down to frontline workers [1] - A specific company in Taichung, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff wars, has shifted from aiming for an IPO to being acquired due to the adverse impacts of currency appreciation [1] - The Taiwanese government is preparing a budget of NT$93 billion to support industries and stabilize the job market amid the tariff impacts on small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 2 - As of mid-July, 179 companies in Taiwan have implemented reduced work hours or unpaid leave, affecting 3,196 workers, marking a six-month high [2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has led to 5% of surveyed companies reporting layoffs, while 25% have paused hiring plans [2] - The consumer confidence index in Taiwan has slightly increased to 64.38 points, ending a nine-month decline, although the overall economic outlook remains cautious [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The legal challenge against President Trump's trade strategy, particularly the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), is set to be debated in a key court hearing, which could undermine recent trade agreements [1][2]. Legal Dispute over Tariff Authority - The central issue is whether the Trump administration has overstepped its authority by invoking IEEPA to impose tariffs, with the government claiming trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking constitute a "national emergency" [2][3]. - The plaintiffs, consisting of several small business owners, argue that IEEPA has never been used for tariff imposition in its nearly 50-year history and does not explicitly grant the president such power [2][3]. - A previous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. International Trade Court favored the plaintiffs, stating that Trump exceeded his legal authority in using IEEPA, but this ruling has been temporarily stayed pending the upcoming appeal [2][3]. Broader Context of Legal Challenges - The "VOS Selections" case is one of several lawsuits challenging the applicability of IEEPA, with over six federal lawsuits targeting the same issue [3]. - Another case, "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump," has already established a broader ruling that IEEPA does not permit unilateral tariff actions by the president [3]. Potential Supreme Court Involvement - Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming court ruling, it is widely anticipated that the case may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court due to its implications for presidential power, congressional authority, and global trade [4]. - Legal experts and market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, with concerns that a ruling against the Trump administration could render recent trade agreements "illegal" [4]. White House Contingency Plans - Analysts suggest that if the IEEPA route is blocked, the White House may resort to alternative legal frameworks, such as Sections 122, 232, 301, and 338 of the Trade Act [6]. - This shift could maintain similar average tariff levels but may lead to a more complex and unpredictable trade environment [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the EU and the US, where the US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, significantly lower than the previously proposed 30% [1][3] - The EU will invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy over three years to reduce reliance on Russian gas [3][4] - The agreement has received mixed reactions within the EU, with some leaders welcoming it for providing stability, while others, like the French Prime Minister, view it as a negative development [3][4] Group 2 - The trade relationship between the US and EU is significant, with projected trade volumes reaching $975.3 billion by 2024, while the trade between China and the EU is expected to exceed $780 billion [6] - Despite the ongoing trade negotiations, the EU's stance towards China has been cautious, with recent criticisms and sanctions against Chinese entities, indicating a complex relationship [6][8] - The EU's dependency on China in sectors like renewable energy and advanced technologies has increased, contradicting the narrative of "decoupling" from China [8][9]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index decreased to 5.84% as of July 20, down 0.12% from July 13[6] - The land premium rate rose to 7.8% for the week of July 20, with a three-week average of 6.5%[10] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week-on-week as of July 20, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3%[23] Price Trends - Domestic resource prices continued to rise significantly, with Shanxi thermal coal price up 1.7%, coking coal up 16.7%, and rebar price up 5.5%[41] - The South China Glass Index surged by 26% during the same period[41] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of commercial housing in 67 cities decreased by 20.5% year-on-year for the first 25 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[8] Infrastructure and Production - The operating rate of asphalt plants fell to 28.8%, down 4% week-on-week but up 4% year-on-year[17] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants from June 26 to July 23 was 31.5%, roughly stable compared to June[17] Trade Dynamics - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. dropped by 5.5% year-on-year as of July 26, compared to a 16.4% increase at the end of June[30] - U.S. imports from China saw a decline of 20.2% year-on-year for the 22 days leading up to July 22[30]

Core Viewpoint - The global trade situation is becoming increasingly complex as countries like South Korea, India, and Malaysia draw red lines in trade negotiations with the United States, while the U.S. responds quickly and mentions reaching a trade agreement with China [1][7]. Group 1: South Korea's Trade Negotiations - South Korea has firmly rejected further opening its beef and rice markets as negotiation leverage, emphasizing food safety and agricultural protection [3]. - In 2022, South Korea imported beef worth $2.22 billion from the U.S., and U.S. rice accounts for 32% of its total rice import quota [3]. - The U.S. has maintained a strong stance on agricultural market access, putting pressure on South Korea, especially as Japan has made concessions [3][4]. Group 2: India's Trade Stance - India has also taken a strong position in trade talks with the U.S., with key red lines being agriculture and dairy products [6]. - Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for the removal of reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts, while seeking similar low tariff treatment as other U.S. trade partners [6]. - India retains the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, particularly concerning genetically modified products and strict feed regulations for dairy animals [6]. Group 3: Malaysia's Position - Malaysia has rejected U.S. demands regarding tax exemptions for electric vehicles and restrictions on foreign ownership in the power and financial sectors [6]. - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar has stated that these policies are crucial for the rights of the Malay and indigenous populations, showing a commitment to national policy independence [6]. Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has claimed that the U.S. is reaching a trade agreement with China, although the credibility of this statement is questioned [7]. - This assertion may serve multiple purposes, including pressuring countries yet to sign agreements with the U.S. and establishing a narrative that places the U.S. in a moral high ground during negotiations [7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. faces setbacks in its trade negotiations with these five countries as they collectively establish red lines, diminishing U.S. negotiating power [9]. - Countries are adopting various strategies to counter U.S. trade pressures, with South Korea, India, and Malaysia maintaining firm stances on their agricultural policies and national interests [9]. - The future of global trade order will be shaped by the negotiations and collaborations among these nations, aiming for equitable solutions to foster a stable and open global trade environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has been forced to accept a 15% tariff agreement with the United States, highlighting its regret for not forming a united front with China to counteract U.S. trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - On July 27, U.S. President Trump announced that the EU would increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1]. - The EU accepted a 15% "base" tariff, which includes key sectors like the automotive industry, while steel will be subject to a quota system [2][3]. - The EU's initial plan aimed to reduce a €200 billion trade deficit through increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, but was undermined by Trump's rapid actions [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Strategic Missteps - The EU's response to Trump's trade aggression began with a strategic misstep on April 10, when it chose to suspend retaliatory tariffs and accept negotiations under pressure [2][4]. - Internal divisions among EU member states weakened its negotiating position, with some countries advocating for a stronger response while others preferred a more cautious approach [3][4]. - The EU's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, particularly among Eastern and Northern member states, contributed to its reluctance to engage in a trade confrontation [4]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The EU's experience in this trade conflict underscores the importance of unity and decisive strategy in the face of trade bullying, as a lack of these elements led to unfavorable outcomes [5]. - Analysts suggest that the EU's failure to act decisively against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader lesson about the risks of not presenting a united front in international trade disputes [5].