Domestic Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on July 16 to discuss strengthening the domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for optimized policy design and collaboration among departments to promote economic stability and growth [9][10][11] - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference convened a meeting on July 18 to analyze the macroeconomic situation for the first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of maintaining employment, enterprises, and market stability amid a complex international environment [11][12] Overseas Policy News - On July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," establishing a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, marking a significant legislative reform in cryptocurrency regulation [2][14] - Data from the U.S. Treasury revealed that in May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings for the third consecutive month [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight increase in mid-July, driven by better-than-expected economic growth in the first half and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [22][23] - The MSCI China A-share index rose by 1.2% in the third week of July, while the Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan [22][23] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net injection of 9.749 billion yuan into the market through open market operations [3][21] - The central bank's policies have shown a positive impact on supporting the real economy, with a notable increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy [3][21] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight rebound, while crude oil prices experienced a minor decline [3][21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the implementation of a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [3][21] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, closing at 98.46 on July 18, while the renminbi faced depreciation pressure, trading at 7.18 [4][20] - A joint announcement from seven departments encouraged foreign investment in domestic reinvestment, aiming to enhance the investment environment [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing in the second half of the year, with a focus on structural adjustments to address uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [4][20]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [1] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 52% in the first half of the year, with total retail sales of consumer goods amounting to 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [4] Consumption Trends - The retail sales growth rate for the catering industry significantly declined from 5.2% in April and 5.9% in May to just 0.9% in June, with the average growth rate for the second quarter at 4.0%, down from 5% in the first quarter [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted retail sales, but its effectiveness is expected to diminish over time, necessitating new strategies to boost domestic demand [4][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of weakness in the second quarter, with fixed asset investment growth slowing down and real estate investment declining further, with a year-on-year drop of 11.2% by June [5] - New residential sales area decreased by 3.7% year-on-year in June, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector [5] External Economic Factors - Exports to the U.S. fell by 24% in the second quarter, while exports to other regions, such as ASEAN and India, increased by 17.5% and 14.3% respectively [7] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension on August 1 poses additional risks to the economic outlook, with potential new tariffs being implemented by the U.S. [7][8] Future Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the focus for the second half of the year should be on expanding domestic demand, with fiscal spending being a key driver [9][10] - Recommendations include utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to support fiscal expenditure growth [9]

Group 1: Export Performance - In the first half of the year, China's exports exceeded expectations, with private enterprises being the main contributors, showing a 7.0% growth compared to state-owned and foreign-invested enterprises at 3.2% and 4.7% respectively [1][4] - The overall trade volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery from the previous month's decline [1][3] - High-tech product exports rose by 9.2%, with significant growth in sectors like high-end machinery and marine engineering equipment, which saw over 20% growth [3] Group 2: Economic Resilience - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid external pressures, with macro policies and proactive responses from businesses playing a crucial role [2] - The industrial added value growth rate increased from 5.8% in May to 6.8% in June, marking the highest rate in three months [1] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.7 percentage points to economic growth, highlighting its importance in the recovery [3] Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Experts noted that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential challenges including export decline, policy effects, real estate adjustments, and low price levels [6] - The supply side indicators are outpacing demand indicators, indicating an imbalance in the economy [6] - Recommendations include enhancing domestic demand, particularly in consumption, and implementing structural reforms to balance supply and demand [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on ensuring that fiscal policy growth outpaces nominal economic growth, with a focus on effective implementation [7] - The need for a balanced approach in policy design, including growth-oriented, reform-oriented, and stability-oriented measures [8] - Suggestions for increasing support for employment and social security to maintain social stability and harmony [8]

当前，浪费可耻、节约光荣的社会氛围越来越浓厚；与此同时，大力提振消费的举措一条接一条。 既倡导节俭又鼓励消费，听起来似乎是矛盾的，其实不然。 由此可见，倡导节俭和鼓励消费不是一时一地之策，它们既是民生、国计，更关乎社会福祉、民族 未来。 勤俭节约是为了推动经济良性发展。近年来，我国推进各类资源节约集约利用，有效降低生产成 本，推动实现绿色发展、高质量发展。 提振消费也是为了推动经济良性发展。只有全方位扩大消费需求，才能带动生产，推动产业升级， 进而增加就业、提高居民收入，实现国民经济良性循环。 倡导节俭和鼓励消费，不是非此即彼的对立关系，而是能相互促进的"共生关系"。二者的出发点一 样，都是为了更好满足人民群众对美好生活的向往。 千百年来，勤俭节约始终是中华民族的传统美德。同时，节俭朴素，力戒奢靡，是我们党的传家 宝。习近平总书记强调："不论我们国家发展到什么水平，不论人民生活改善到什么地步，艰苦奋 斗、勤俭节约的思想永远不能丢。" 再富裕的国家，钱袋子也是有限的，何况我们还不是发达国家。全面建设社会主义现代化国家，有 太多领域需要用钱。党政机关厉行节约反对浪费，就是要精打细算、带头过"紧日子"，省下来的钱 ...

Group 1: Retail and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a significant increase, reaching 440823.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, the highest in nearly a decade [10] - In 2024, the retail sales are projected to reach 487894.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.5% compared to the previous year [10] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) has been steadily increasing, with a forecast of 514374 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous year [10] Group 2: Income Growth - The per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 41314 yuan in 2024, an increase of 9125 yuan or 28.35% from 2020 [11] - In the first half of 2025, the per capita disposable income is projected to be 21840 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 5.3% year-on-year [11] Group 3: Policy and Economic Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios as a key task for China's economic work [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to implementing strategies to strengthen domestic circulation and stimulate internal demand [9] Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - The ice and snow industry is rapidly developing, with its market size expected to reach 10053 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant growth from 8900 billion yuan in 2023 [14] - The silver economy is also emerging, with projections indicating that its market size could reach 12.3 trillion yuan by 2028, becoming a vital growth engine for the Chinese economy [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's economic growth remains resilient and within a reasonable range, with structural improvements in the economy, despite global uncertainties. It is expected that policies will accelerate in the second half of the year to enhance public sentiment and stabilize expectations, leading to qualitative and quantitative economic growth [1] Group 2 - Expanding consumption subsidies and tapping into endogenous potential is a key task for policies in the second half of the year. The consumption market contributed over half to economic growth in the first half, with service consumption showing strong performance, evidenced by a 5.3% year-on-year increase in service retail sales, outpacing goods retail growth [2] - The rise of "new consumption" trends, particularly among younger demographics, is noteworthy. Preferences for cultural and tourism products are increasing, indicating a shift in consumption structure and habits, which should be supported by consumption policies [2] Group 3 - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing growth. Increased fiscal spending is anticipated in the second half to enhance public perception of government efforts to expand domestic demand. Suggestions include executing budgets effectively for consumption subsidies and accelerating infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy is expected to strengthen further, with improvements in liquidity and a focus on optimizing benchmark interest rates and liquidity provisions to better support the real economy and new consumption demands [3] - The year 2025 is critical for transitioning between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, necessitating policy designs that address both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural reforms [3]

21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 7月15日，国家统计局公布上半年国民经济运行情况，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按 不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。消费方面，上半年，社会消费品零售总额245458亿元，同比增长5%， 比一季度加快0.4个百分点。当前经济形势中有哪些需要关注的地方？下半年经济发展面临哪些压力和 挑战？国内促消费政策还有空间吗？扩大内需还可以从哪里下手？针对相关问题，21世纪经济报道记者 专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明。 明明表示，从结构上来看，上半年在一系列增量政策落地生效以及财政前置发力下，内需尤其是消费成 为了促进经济增长的主动力，以稳就业、促收入为核心的政策正在逐步传导至终端需求的回升。展望下 半年，居民消费还有进一步提升空间，可以通过新型政策性金融工具和结构性货币工具的协同配合，除 延续对传统基础设施领域的支持外，还会将资金精准导向服务消费等领域。此外还可以通过发放育儿补 贴、失业补贴、消费券以及推动新基建建设等方式进一步扩大内需。 中信证券首席经济学家明明。（受访者供图） 与此同时，近期市场上综合整治"内卷式"竞争的信号接连释放。据新华社消息，7月16日召开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable macroeconomic conditions and market expectations [1][2] Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous month [1] - The stability in LPR follows a 0.1 percentage point reduction in May, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate also remaining constant [1] - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment does not necessitate a reduction in LPR, given the stable macroeconomic indicators [1][4] Group 2: Future Expectations - There is potential for LPR to be lowered in the second half of the year, particularly in response to external uncertainties and the need to stimulate domestic demand [1][4] - The next LPR adjustment is anticipated around early Q4, with a possible reduction of up to 0.2 percentage points [4] - The central bank is expected to continue using monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [4] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The central bank's recent reduction of the public housing loan rate by 0.25 percentage points may facilitate further decreases in commercial mortgage rates [2] - Regulatory measures may be implemented to specifically guide the 5-year LPR downwards, aiming to significantly lower residential mortgage rates [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the banking industry and the broader economic context in China, particularly focusing on the "脱虚向实" (devirtualization) policy aimed at promoting industrial development while addressing issues in the service sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Shift and Economic Impact** - The "脱虚向实" policy has led to an imbalance in resource allocation, favoring industrial sectors over services, resulting in reduced employment opportunities in the latter [2][3]. - The current policy shift aims to counteract the negative effects of price competition in industries, which has led to declining profit margins and increased unemployment [1][3]. 2. **Banking Sector Performance** - Recent mid-term financial reports from banks, particularly Hangzhou Bank, show a profit growth of nearly 17%, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong performance in the city commercial banking sector [4][17]. - The overall banking sector is expected to see improved performance due to the positive trends in revenue and profit growth, with non-performing asset (NPA) ratios remaining low [2][19]. 3. **Effects of Anti-Internal Competition Measures** - Anti-internal competition measures are being implemented across various industries, including banking, to stabilize prices and improve profit margins [5][10]. - These measures have shown initial effectiveness, with some banks reporting an increase in NPA and stabilization of interest margins [5][17]. 4. **Industrial Sector Challenges** - The industrial sector faces issues of overcapacity and fierce competition, particularly among small enterprises producing low-quality goods at low prices, which pressures larger firms [6][8]. - The government is implementing measures such as supply control, price regulation, and higher environmental standards to address these challenges [7][9]. 5. **Price Recovery and Market Dynamics** - The measures taken are expected to uplift industrial product prices, which may also affect non-industrial goods, aiming for a restoration of normal price levels rather than excessive inflation [10][11]. - Different industries are responding variably to these policies, with significant price increases observed in commodities like polysilicon and lithium [11][12]. 6. **Macroeconomic Implications** - The policies are anticipated to reflect positively in macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and CPI, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% [13]. - Improved corporate profitability is expected to lead to a bull market in stocks, benefiting various sectors including services [13][25]. 7. **Investment Outlook** - The current market shows a preference for stocks and commodities, with a cautious approach towards bonds due to limited room for interest rate declines [14][15]. - The banking sector is viewed as having potential for valuation recovery, especially for banks with strong fundamentals [19][20]. 8. **Insurance Capital Strategies** - Insurance capital is favoring high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, indicating a selective investment approach based on specific circumstances rather than a broad sell-off [21][22]. 9. **Dividend Performance in Banking** - The dividend yield for large banks has dropped below 4%, while city commercial banks maintain higher yields, making them attractive to investors [23][24]. Other Important Insights - The banking sector's future performance is expected to improve as the market has not fully recognized the potential of quality financial institutions [25]. - The ongoing adjustments in government policy reflect a strategic response to previous economic challenges, aiming to foster a more balanced and sustainable growth environment across sectors [1][3].

消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要发力点。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超表 示，按照既定工作安排，将下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，并分领域制定落实到每月、每周 的"国补"资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 会议指出，要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合 力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。有关部门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建 议，积极帮助地方和企业解决困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 "做强国内大循环是一项系统工程，需要各方面政策同向发力、形成合力。落实好会议部署，要进一步 加强部门政策协同联动，完善政策落地长效机制，并要密切跟踪形势变化，做好政策储备，确保需要时 能够及时推出、尽快见效。"张林山说。(记者魏玉坤) 16日召开的国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部署。 最新数据显示，今年上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，是经 济增长的主动力。会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 "'战略之举'，凸显做强国内大 ...