新华社北京12月30日电（记者叶昊鸣）国务院研究室社会司司长刘日红在新华社30日推出的"中国经济 圆桌会"大型全媒体访谈节目中表示，中国是个大国，大国经济一个重要特征是内部可循环。扩大内 需，必须统筹抓好促消费和扩投资。 "明年我国将进一步激发居民消费的内生动力，在这其中，服务消费蕴含着巨大潜力。随着一些支持性 政策逐步完善，文旅、养老、育幼等方面的消费潜力将进一步释放。"刘日红表示。 投资方面，刘日红表示，政府投资还将保持相当的力度，如中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政 府专项债等，同时发挥新型政策性金融工具作用。此外，还要通过完善民营企业参与国家重大项目的长 效机制，引导民营企业向高技术、新赛道拓展等方式，激发民间投资活力。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 中央经济工作会议确定了明年经济工作必须抓好的八项重点任务，其中"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内 市场"排在首位，并提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划""推动投资止跌回 稳"等具体举措。 刘日红表示，把发展的战略基点放到扩大内需上，可以从两个方面来理解。一方面，从外部环境看，当 前单边主义、保护主义加剧，多边主义、自由贸易受到严峻挑战 ...

奋力实现"十五五"良好开局——中国经济圆桌会共话贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神 新华社记者 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。这是在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的重 要历史节点上党中央召开的一次十分重要的会议。 怎样看待今年和"十四五"时期我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就？会议释放出做好明年经济工作哪些重 要信号？如何贯彻落实好会议决策部署，确保"十五五"开好局起好步？ 新华社12月30日推出第二十七期"中国经济圆桌会"大型全媒体访谈节目，邀请国务院研究室社会司司长 刘日红，中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇，国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员刘志成，中国民间商 会副会长、依文集团董事长夏华，共话贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，奋力实现"十五五"良好开局。 深刻认识发展成就 准确理解规律性认识 2025年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼 搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][37]. Core Insights - The social services sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase of 6.28% during the review period, outperforming the broader market by 4.61 percentage points [13][14]. - Key companies such as China Duty Free Group and others have demonstrated significant stock price increases, with China Duty Free Group rising by 16.91% [14][17]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which are expected to support the valuation recovery of the sector [4][37]. Industry Dynamics - The first week of Hainan's duty-free shopping saw sales reach 1.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, with an average spending of 6,667 CNY per person, up 16% [19]. - Major airports in Shanghai and Beijing have awarded duty-free store contracts to China Duty Free Group, enhancing its market position [18]. - The tourism market is heating up ahead of the New Year, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 1.06 million, a 45% increase year-on-year [23]. Company Performance - The report details stock performance for key companies, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Haidilao and China Oriental Education during the review period [3][36]. - Specific companies such as Atour, Ctrip Group, and Huazhu Group are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4][37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing economic recovery and consumer spending, including China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and others [4][37]. - The introduction of new products and services, such as Atour's modular hotel concept and the expansion of brands like Mixue Ice City into international markets, indicates a trend towards innovation and market adaptation [20][25].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 管涛预计2026年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，货币政策更灵活高效，降准降息是可选项，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发力。 蓝鲸新闻12月30日讯（记者 李丹萍 王婉莹）2026年，是中国"十五五"规划的开局之年，承载着承前启后、谋篇布局的重要使命。 财政政策优化结构"投资于人"，货币政策"以我为主"精准发力 蓝鲸新闻：日前召开的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出了重大部署。会议总体延续了去年底的政策基调，重申"实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策"，强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。"十五五"周期，您认为财政政策和货币政策分别还有哪些发力空 间，核心因素是什么？ 管涛：中央经济工作会议对明年宏观经济政策的定调，是符合市场预期的，相信宏观政策不会退坡，预计在"十五五"期间财政政策和货币政策 仍有进一步发力空间。 中央经济工作会议提出要保持必要的赤字，预计明年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，但随着经济总量扩大，财政赤字和债务总规模和支出总量 可能略有增加，从而保持一定的财政支出强度。 需要看到的是，我们现在强调宏观政策民生导向从"投资于物"转向"投资于人"，下一步更 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][37]. Core Insights - The social services sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase of 6.28% during the review period, outperforming the broader market by 4.61 percentage points [13][37]. - Key drivers of growth include the strong performance of duty-free sales in Hainan, which reached 1.1 billion CNY in the first week of operation, marking a 54.9% year-on-year increase [19]. - The report highlights significant developments in the tourism and education sectors, with rising travel bookings and new educational policies aimed at reducing exam burdens [23][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a 6.28% increase from December 15 to December 28, 2025, compared to a 1.67% rise in the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a remarkable increase, with sales reaching 11 billion CNY, and average spending per person rising to 6,667 CNY, a 16% increase year-on-year [19]. - Major companies like China Duty Free Group won multiple bids for airport duty-free operations, enhancing their market position [18]. - The hotel sector is innovating with the launch of the "Atour 3.6" brand, which has successfully opened over 20 locations, achieving high occupancy rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR) [20]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Notable changes in stock holdings during the review period include an increase in holdings for Haidilao and Gu Ming, while others like Tea Baidao saw slight decreases [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Huazhu Group, Ctrip, and Atour, among others, as they are expected to benefit from favorable government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][37].

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [1][2] - The main contradiction in economic operation has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for stable economic development [2] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has been extensive and impactful, contributing positively to economic performance this year [2] Group 2 - Consumption demand is influenced by both short-term market fluctuations and long-term structural factors, requiring a dual approach of immediate stimulus and addressing deeper issues [3][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for targeted support in sectors like education, healthcare, and elder care [5] - Effective investment remains crucial alongside consumption, with a focus on meeting consumer needs and expanding investment opportunities [6] Group 3 - Key areas for investment include urban renewal, old community renovation, rural infrastructure, and revitalizing homestead land, which present significant demand potential [8] - Promoting private and foreign investment requires continuous domestic demand policies and improvements in the business environment through reforms and openness [8]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province is launching a series of consumer promotion activities for 2026, focusing on various sectors including automotive, retail, dining, traditional brands, online goods, cultural tourism, and local liquor [1][3] Group 1: Promotion Activities - The theme for 2026 is "Shopping in China · Colorful Guizhou Happy Shopping," with year-round activities aligned with seasonal characteristics and local resources [3] - Key promotional activities will coincide with major consumption periods such as New Year, Spring Festival, Labor Day, summer, and National Day, utilizing a model of "government funding + financial support + enterprise discounts" [3] - In the first quarter of 2026, there will be subsidies for individuals purchasing new cars within the province, along with consumer vouchers from partnered supermarkets to reduce daily living costs [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Incentives - A "ticket root linkage" promotion will be introduced, allowing out-of-province tourists to enjoy discounts in designated shopping areas and restaurants by presenting tickets from various events [5] - The promotion of local liquor will include quarterly online consumption vouchers that do not require coupons, facilitating nationwide purchases through the "Guizhou Cloud Exhibition" platform [5] - The 15th Wine Expo will feature special consumption vouchers, providing online and offline discounts to expand the market for Guizhou liquor [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The initiatives aim to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand, contributing to the high-quality economic development of Guizhou [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies aimed at promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][1]. Export Performance - China's exports showed resilience in 2025, with nominal year-on-year growth of 5.4% in USD terms and 6.2% in RMB terms for the first 11 months [7]. - The strong export performance is attributed to factors such as transshipment trade, increased capital goods exports driven by Chinese companies going abroad, and the delayed impact of US tariffs on global trade [8][10]. - For 2026, it is projected that China's exports will continue to grow by 3.4% year-on-year, supported by stable US-China tariffs and cost advantages [10][31]. Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in China is expected to recover slightly in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of around 2%, up from approximately 1% in 2025 [2][57]. - The recovery is supported by resilient exports and continued policy support for advanced manufacturing, particularly in the context of national security and technological development [49][57]. - Factors such as "strong supply and weak demand" and "anti-involution" expectations have negatively impacted manufacturing investment in 2025, but these conditions are expected to improve [39][40]. Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area of about 5% [59]. - Real estate investment is anticipated to decline by approximately 11% year-on-year in 2026, an improvement from a 16% decline in 2025, indicating a reduced direct impact on the economy [63][58]. - Policies are being implemented to mitigate the risks associated with a weakening real estate sector, including measures to support housing demand and improve the financial health of real estate companies [63][66]. Consumption and Investment Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial path to achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [66]. - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through special bonds, with funding levels likely to remain at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [67][72]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to around 8% year-on-year in 2026, supported by previously announced policies and a focus on major projects [4][66].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a slight slowdown from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation [4] - Strong investment in artificial intelligence is anticipated to support investment and trade growth over the next two years [2][4] Trade Dynamics - Global goods and services trade is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, accelerating from 3.0% in 2024, but is expected to slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including reduced consumer spending in the U.S. [5] - Tariff uncertainties have decreased, yet trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges [5] Asian Export Resilience - Despite fluctuations in tariff risks, Asia's overall export performance has exceeded expectations, remaining stronger than other regions [6] - The export growth rate in Asia is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [7] China's Economic Strategy - In 2026, China will focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy priority, with structural reforms and increased openness to foreign investment [2][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the household consumption rate, which was 39.9% in 2024, as a critical goal for high-quality development [8] Investment and Fiscal Policies - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, supported by new policy financial tools [9] - The fiscal deficit target for China in 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, with local government bonds issued to support consumption and major projects [9] Innovation and Competitiveness - Innovation capability is projected to become a core advantage for China, attracting foreign investment and enhancing service trade exports [12] - The government aims to regulate supply-side competition to ensure efficient resource allocation and promote fair competition [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to prioritize domestic demand in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment to support a strong domestic market [2] Group 1: Policy Effectiveness in 2025 - The government has utilized public budget funds to enhance disposable income through various subsidies, thereby increasing consumer willingness to spend [3] - Special long-term bonds have been employed to support the replacement of old consumer goods, stabilizing and expanding consumption [3] - Employment services and vocational training have been improved through policies like tax reductions and employment subsidies, promoting job opportunities for key demographics [3] - A comprehensive social security system has been established to alleviate concerns for citizens, thereby boosting consumer confidence [3] - Development funds have been allocated to support commercial construction in rural areas, enhancing the consumption environment and unlocking rural consumption potential [3] Group 2: Challenges in Policy Implementation - Global economic growth is sluggish, and rising protectionism necessitates a greater reliance on domestic markets to drive economic growth [5] - Despite being a leader in agricultural and industrial consumption, challenges remain in scaling and improving quality in domestic demand [5] - New infrastructure investments still have room for growth, but issues such as reliance on imported technology and lack of unified standards pose significant challenges [5] - The government faces difficulties in balancing short-term performance pressures with long-term investments in human capital [7] Group 3: Recommendations for Expanding Domestic Demand - The government should increase fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditures, focusing on public service and social welfare investments [9] - There is a need to combine domestic demand expansion with improving living standards, ensuring that public services meet the quality and quantity required by citizens [9] - Policy support and innovative reforms should be implemented to provide robust fiscal backing for expanding domestic demand, enhancing budget management and efficiency [10]