Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to strengthen if the US government announces more trade agreements, potentially reaching a resistance level of 0.6700 against the USD, while negative news could lead to a decline towards a support level around 0.6428 [1] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates in July, following moderate inflation data from May [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that the yield spread of Eurozone government bonds shows resilience amid geopolitical tensions, indicating stable market performance despite uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ's survey indicates that New Zealand businesses showed increased confidence in June, with 46.3% expecting economic improvement over the next year, up from 36.6% in May [2] - Despite the rise in confidence, the actual operating conditions for businesses remain weak, highlighting a disparity between sentiment and reality [2] - Barclays reported an increase in risk premium for dollar-denominated assets in the first half of the year due to US policy volatility, while US Treasury yields are expected to potentially exceed 5% [2] Group 3 - The UK economy experienced a 0.7% growth in Q1 2025, driven mainly by business investment and net trade, but this growth may not be sustainable [3] - A significant drop of over 30% in UK exports to the US in April indicates weakening external demand, particularly from the US market [3] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on US prices and inflation expectations are rising, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming consumer price report being crucial for future monetary policy direction [3]

美国：居民消费支出走弱 [Table_Authors] 贺媛(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周全球大类资产中大宗商品价格大多下跌，主要经济体股市普遍上涨。美国 5 月 居民消费支出边际走弱，核心 PCE 有所抬升，通胀预期回落，美联储后续降息节奏 仍需观望。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040129 观 研 究 宏观研究/[Table_Date] 2025.06.30 021-38676666 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 宏观周报 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 2025-06-30 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.6.20-2025.6.27），大宗商品价格大 多下跌。其中，IPE 布油期货下跌 12.9%，标普-高盛商品指数下跌 6.0%，伦敦金现下跌 2.8%，COMEX 铜上涨 3.0%。主要经济体股市 普遍上涨，其中日经 225 上涨 4.6%，标普 500 上涨 3.4%，恒生指数 上涨 3.2%。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较前一周 ...

24 June 2025 | 10:51AM EDT USA: Consumer Confidence Well Below Expectations; Inflation Expectations Decline Again BOTTOM LINE: The consumer confidence index decreased in June, well below expectations for an increase. The labor differential declined in June to the lowest level since March 2021, and the survey's measure of short-term inflation expectations declined. US MAP: Consumer confidence -6 (3, -2) KEY NUMBERS: Consumer confidence 93.0 for June vs. GS 100.6, median forecast 99.8, prior revised 98.4 MAIN ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has garnered significant market attention, with notable internal disagreements among officials regarding the policy path, leading to an increased probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Research indicates that certain members, such as Waller and Bowman, support a July rate cut under specific conditions, while hawkish representative Harker remains cautious about rate cuts within the year [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September, while also warning about the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation and emphasizing the need for policy flexibility [1] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff discussions have been pushing inflation expectations higher, with May data exceeding expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's stance of maintaining higher rates for a longer duration [1] - Based on data analysis, the outlook for gold is considered bearish in the upcoming week [1]

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时来看，黄金周五冲高回落，日线收十字星。虽此前有小阳线，但反弹乏力且无持续性，未形成有 效突破，显示自3452高点以来的调整未结束，日内仍有下行空间。当前呈阴跌态势，不宜等大幅反弹后做 空，反弹过大会减弱下跌动能。周五亚市早盘金价续跌逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑密集，直接追空风险 大。综上所述，下周黄金翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略：反弹至3297-3302区间做空，止损3310，目标3290- 3270。 本周美联储货币政策动向成为市场焦点，多位官员的公开表态显示其内部在政策路径上存在显著分歧，7月降 息可能性显著增加。最新研究报告指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼在特定条件下支持7月降息，而鹰派代表哈克则对年 内降息持审慎立场。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态：预计美联储年内实施两次降息，首次降息窗 口或在9月开启；同时警示关税对通胀的滞后效应，强调政策制定需保持灵活性。年内关税言论持续推升通胀 ...

（原标题：今夜，暴涨！创新高！） 【导读】贸易利好，美股新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，美股纳指、标普500指数， 创新高。 美股新高 6月27日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨近500点，纳斯达克指数、标普500指 数盘中创下历史新高，这标志着美国股市今年经历了一场 几乎难以置信的逆转——在克服了贸易动荡 和地缘政治压力后，终于收复了2月份创下的历史高点。 今晚的上涨主要受到市场对 中美及其他国家即 将达成贸易协议的乐观预期推动。 消息面上，中方表示，近日，经批准，中美双方进一步确认了框架 细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，特朗普政府的贸易协议议程有望在 劳动节假期（9月初）前完成。商 务部长霍华德·卢特尼克前一天提到，白宫正计划 在短期内与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议。 贝森特重申，美国目前有18个关键贸易伙伴，并指出美国已经与英国达成协议、与中国达成安排，所以 这两个国家"目前已处理完毕"。 而特朗普则称，一项"非常重大"的协议可能很快签署，该协议将 为美国企业打开印度市场。 据密歇根大学数据，6月 ...

【导读】贸易利好，美股新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，美股纳指、标普500指数，创新高。 6月27日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨近500点，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数盘中创下历史新高，这标志着美国股市今年 经历了一场 几乎难以置信的逆转 ——在克服了贸易动荡和地缘政治压力后，终于收复了2月份创下的历史高点。 | 最高: 43868.78 | 今开:43505.60 | 52周最高: 45073.63 | 量比: 1.23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 43505.60 | 昨收:43386.84 | 52周最低: 36611.78 | 振幅:0.84% | | | 成交量: 2.52亿股 | | | | | | 分胴 五日 日K 周K 目K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | | 最新:43871.80 +484.96 +1.12% | | | | | | 43872.67 | | | | 1.1 | | 43751.21 | | | | 0.8 | | 4362975 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. significantly rose to a four-month high in June, reflecting improved economic outlook and personal financial conditions [1] - The final value of the consumer confidence index for June increased from 52.2 in the previous month to 60.7, marking the largest increase since early 2024 with an 8.5-point rise [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 5% over the next year, which is an improvement from 6.6% in May, the largest monthly increase since 2001 [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have also decreased, with consumers anticipating a 4% annual increase in costs over the next five to ten years, lower than the previous month [1]

美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期终值 5，预期 5.2，初值 5.1。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "interest rate game" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is creating significant market dynamics, with Trump pushing for immediate rate cuts while Powell and other Fed officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe inflation trends before making any decisions [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - Powell stated that the impact of tariff policies on prices has not fully materialized, and lowering rates now would be akin to "driving with blindfolds," indicating a high level of risk [3]. - The latest PCE inflation rate is at 2.1%, with core PCE at 2.6%, still above the 2% target, suggesting that the Fed is not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation signals emerge [4]. - Employment data shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims reaching a new high since 2021, indicating a slowing labor market without immediate alarm [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low at 18.6%, rising to 60% by September, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the complexity of the current economic environment [5]. - Discrepancies in forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight the uncertainty, with Goldman predicting two rate cuts while Morgan Stanley suggests only one or even no cuts [5]. Investment Implications - Increased volatility in U.S. equities is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, due to the Fed's cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [6]. - The performance of the U.S. dollar and gold is under scrutiny, as the Fed's high-rate stance typically supports the dollar, yet recent trends show a decline in the dollar index alongside a strengthening gold market [6]. - The potential impact on A-shares due to external uncertainties could influence capital flows, but domestic policy directions remain clear, with focus areas including military asset consolidation and digital currency trials [6].