Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on August 8, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 788.04 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.59%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9264.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.68% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold priced at 3497.10 USD per ounce, up by 0.41%, while COMEX silver was at 38.51 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver futures were 784.18 CNY and 9275.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 788.36 CNY and 9318.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as lacking logic, while Fed official Bostic indicated that dissenting opinions at future meetings would not be surprising given the current complexities [3] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 7.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, a 92.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 2.5% chance of holding rates steady in October, with cumulative probabilities for cuts of 25 and 50 basis points at 36.1% and 61.5%, respectively [3] - On August 7, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.44% to 3482.70 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.26% to 785.44 CNY per gram, driven by market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bond auction, which is seen as a troubling indicator for the bond market [1][2] - The 30-year bond auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27, the lowest since November 2023, indicating weak investor interest [1] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, was at 59.5%, the lowest since May, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was 23.03%, significantly below previous averages [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, marking a continuous increase for three days, while the 2-year yield reached 3.73% [1] - The auction results suggest that if the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, begins to cut interest rates, there could be a sharp revaluation of inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [2] - Recent labor market data indicates an increase in initial jobless claims to 226,000, slightly above expectations, and a rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a challenging job market [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concerns regarding stagflation in the U.S. economy, highlighting recent downward revisions in non-farm data and resilient core PCE, indicating that stagflation risks are spreading [1][5] - Historical stagflation periods are identified, including 1973-1976, 1979-1982, 1988-1991, 2007-2008, 2011-2012, and 2021-2023, correlating with significant macroeconomic events such as oil crises and financial crises [1][6] - The Federal Reserve's response to stagflation has evolved, focusing on balancing inflation control and economic growth, with a preference for gradual adjustments rather than abrupt policy shifts [3][14] Group 2 - Stagflation typically arises from supply shocks, with historical examples including food price shocks, oil price shocks, and wage price shocks, leading to persistent high inflation and economic stagnation [2][12] - The article outlines the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework changes over the years, emphasizing transparency, stability in inflation targeting, and a focus on broad-based employment [3][16] - The performance of major asset classes during stagflation periods is analyzed, noting that equities generally struggle to yield positive returns, while gold and silver often serve as resilient hedges against inflation [4][36] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the macroeconomic context and the role of external shocks, such as geopolitical events, in driving stagflation [12][36] - It highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to monetary policy that includes not only interest rate adjustments but also considerations of wage and price controls to address underlying inflationary pressures [31][28] - The analysis of past stagflation periods reveals that the interplay between supply shocks and monetary policy responses significantly influences economic outcomes [33][37]

南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor and a poor auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds, gold prices have rebounded. New dovish expectations from the Fed support gold prices, and they are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 0.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: Also influenced by the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor, silver prices have continued to rise. Despite a poor 30 - year US Treasury bond auction, the recovery of domestic commodity sentiment has led to a resurgence in silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 415 yuan/kilogram, and silver prices are expected to be strong [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The dovish Milan's expected appointment as a Fed governor led to a recovery in gold prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year yield up 2.62 basis points to 4.252%. The US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.09, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44% to $3482.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the expected appointment of the dovish Milan led to a rise in silver prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed, US Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar index fell. COMEX silver futures rose 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include China's July CPI and PPI, and speeches by Fed members [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Scheduled events: Japan's June trade balance at 07:50; the 2025 World Robot Expo (time TBD); the online interpretation of the Bank of England's latest forecasts and policy decisions by Chief Economist Huw Pill at 19:15; Canada's July employment report (including employment figures and unemployment rate) at 20:30; a speech by St. Louis Fed President (2025 FOMC voter) Mousalem at 22:20; China's July CPI and PPI at 09:30 on Saturday; and the possible release of China's July M2 and other money supply data, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans on Saturday [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.72, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts stand at 36,045 kilograms, remaining unchanged [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 47, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11,506 kilograms to 1,150,338 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 3,267 (1.47%), short positions decreased by 42 (- 0.07%), and the net position increased by 3,309 (2.06%) [4][28]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 3,512 (1.02%), short positions decreased by 3,270 (- 1.20%), and the net position increased by 6,782 (9.60%) [5][32]. 4. Other Information - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions decreased slightly but remained higher than the levels of the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decline but were higher than last year's level, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [38][41].

换资前言： 技术面来看，近期黄金多空博弈激烈，价格虽短线有所突破，但整体仍维持于3400 - 3370的宽幅震荡格 局。正如我们强调的那样，黄金大扫荡行情依然会持续；昨日黄金走势再次证明了这一点，接下来大扫 荡依然会继续；只是，月线连续4个交易月冲高回落，上影线连续排列，四根天线天线宝宝，我们更倾 向于冲高下跌，并且是中线级别的下跌；目前唯一不确定的是刺破3400大关下跌，还是多头奔赴历史新 高后下跌！今日早盘，黄金高开于3403一线，盘中波动剧烈，先冲高至3406后回落至3396，随后又快速 拉升至3409，再跌至3382，如此大幅震荡，实为市场多空力量的激烈碰撞与洗礼。究其背后动因，关税 消息仍是关键推手。 具体走势而言，昨天黄金延续了亚盘震荡回落，欧盘扫荡，美盘探底大涨的规律；我们最近一直强调， 黄金很大可能要冲击3400大关，比较看好3405~10区域，但是能否多头强势，那要看日线是否站上3400 大关。从昨天收盘来看，并没有站上3400大关，今天估计要打破运行规律。今日早盘黄金一度围绕3400 扫荡，在冲击3409后迎来快跌，目前于3380附近震荡。我们需要注意的是，最近黄金市场大部分消息是 利多， ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【7月美国消费者通胀预期上升，就业市场看法改善】纽约联邦储备银行的一项月度调查表明，7月美国 消费者通胀预期有所上升，且对就业市场的看法得到改善。 纽约联储周四透露，消费者对未来一年通 胀率的预期从6月的3%微涨至3.1%。对未来三年通胀率的预期保持在3%，对未来五年通胀率的预期升 至2.9%，达到2月以来的最高水平。 通胀预期的上升会增强那些希望暂时按兵不动的美联储官员的立 场。今年以来，美联储一直维持利率不变，但越来越多投资者押注美联储将在9月的下一次政策会议上 降息。 在纽约联储的调查中，更多家庭反馈获得信贷的难度加大，认为未来三个月内可能无法偿还最 低还款额的比例也稍有上升。 不过，认为未来一年财务状况会改善的家庭占比连续第二个月增加，而 表示自己比一年前状况更差的受访者占比降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down by 224.48 points (0.51%) closing at 43968.64, while the Nasdaq rose by 73.27 points (0.35%) to 21242.7 [1] - European markets saw the DAX30 index increase by 287.71 points (1.20%) to 24192.24, while the FTSE 100 dropped by 63.14 points (0.69%) to 9101.17 [1] - The Nikkei 225 index in Asia rose by 0.6%, while the KOSPI index saw a slight increase and the Indonesian Composite index fell by 0.15% [2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased with spot gold rising by 0.86% to $3398.39 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 1.12% to $3471.70 per ounce [3] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures for September down by $0.47 to $63.88 per barrel (0.73% decline) and Brent crude for October down by $0.46 to $66.43 per barrel (0.69% decline) [2] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin rose over 2% to $117,263.8, while Ethereum increased by over 5% to $3,873.15 [4] Employment Data - The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits surged to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [5] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits also rose to 226,000, slightly above economists' expectations [5] Corporate News - Trump nominated Stephen Milan to serve on the Federal Reserve Board until January 2026, highlighting his economic expertise [6] - Microsoft announced the integration of OpenAI's GPT-5 into its product ecosystem, enhancing capabilities across various applications [10] - General Motors plans to import lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from China's CATL for its second-generation Chevrolet Bolt EV, despite an 80% tariff imposed by Trump [11]

这项数据的上升正值特朗普政府大幅上调进口关税之际。市场普遍认为，这些关税将推高商品价格，进 而抬升通胀水平。虽然部分数据已显示物价有上涨迹象，但学界和政策制定者对这种影响是短期冲击还 是长期结构性变化仍存在分歧。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在周四的一场线上讨论中表示，他"仍预计今年会有一次降息"，但同时也对 关税仅带来一次性价格冲击的说法持怀疑态度。他指出："我们现在面临的最大问题之一是，这些关税 是否只是短期行为，还是将造成更持久甚至结构性的变化。" 智通财经APP获悉，周四，根据纽约联储最新发布的消费者预期调查，尽管美国家庭对当前及未来财务 状况普遍感到乐观，他们对通胀的长期预期在7月显著升温，引发市场对美联储货币政策前景的更多关 注。 数据显示，消费者对五年后通胀水平的预期从6月的2.6%升至7月的2.9%，为3月以来最高水平。与此同 时，对一年期通胀的预期也从3%升至3.1%，而三年期通胀预期则维持在3%不变。 特朗普关税引发长期通胀担忧 房价、就业与消费信心 报告还指出，消费者预计未来一年房价将上涨3%，而对劳动力市场的看法则出现分化。预期未来一年 失业率上升的比例降至1月以来最低水平，显示就业信心依 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China, with a focus on the banking and semiconductor industries, as well as the broader implications of the "anti-involution" theme in various sectors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "mean reversion" trend characterized by "East rising, West declining" dynamics, driven by long-term capital allocation and a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs [1][2]. 2. **Anti-Involution Theme**: The "anti-involution" theme is particularly evident in the banking and semiconductor sectors, aiming to lower prices to reduce real interest rates and convert savings into consumption, which is anticipated to last for one to two years [1][3][4]. 3. **Defensive Strategy Against U.S. Competition**: China should adopt a defensive strategy to enhance domestic purchasing power by lowering domestic prices, while being cautious of U.S. efforts to support India as an alternative to Chinese low-end manufacturing [5]. 4. **Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2025**: Suggested allocations include overweighting sectors such as banking, telecommunications, technology, military informationization, high-dividend stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum [1][6][7]. 5. **Correlation Between U.S. and Chinese Markets**: There is a notable correlation (70%-80%) between the trading behaviors of strong sectors in both markets, particularly those related to AI and military information technology [1][8]. 6. **Long-term Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The implementation of anti-involution policies should be gradual to avoid economic stagnation, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring that policies do not negatively impact economic growth [9][4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior and Economic Indicators**: The recent upward movement in the U.S. stock market is attributed to the development of the AI industry and the influence of populist policies, which may mitigate short-term risks [34][35]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: Inflation expectations are particularly sensitive for growth stocks, and current observations indicate a failure of inflation trading strategies in both the U.S. and China [17]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The reduction of geopolitical risks, such as the easing of U.S. software restrictions and potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could lead to decreased inflationary pressures in the future [18]. 4. **Investment in High-Growth Assets**: High-growth assets, particularly in AI, are projected to see significant demand increases, with growth rates expected to be around 15%-18% from 2024 to 2030 [19][20]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The performance of sectors such as gold and Bitcoin is highlighted, with both showing resilience against U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating their potential as investment vehicles [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, strategic recommendations, and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market and related sectors.