Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The increase in raw material costs supports the price of silicomanganese. Recently, the manganese ore market has been stable, with various manganese ore varieties rising by 0.5 - 1 yuan/ton degree at the beginning of this week. The supply of South African ore at southern ports is tight, and the bargaining power of factories has decreased. Additionally, the fifth round of coke price hikes has further strengthened cost support [2]. - The high - level oscillation of the silicomanganese futures market supports the spot price. The futures price fluctuated around 6000 yuan/ton this week, and the market trading atmosphere was warm. There was still high - level hedging in the northern region, and the transmission effect of the futures market on the spot market was obvious, leading to a slight increase in spot prices in both the north and the south [2]. - The resonance of macro - policies and downstream demand has injected confidence into the market. Stimulated by macro - favorable policies such as the national anti - involution policy, the downstream stainless steel market has strengthened, and market activity has gradually recovered. Combined with strong support from the raw material side and positive transmission from the futures market, it has jointly promoted the increase in silicomanganese prices [2]. - Overall, the current silicomanganese market has clear and continuously effective supporting factors, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate in a strong and oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw material prices and changes in downstream actual procurement volume [2]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicone Supply - **Capacity**: The report presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicomanganese enterprises and the annual production of silicomanganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [6][7]. - **Production - Annual**: The annual production data of silicomanganese in different regions of China are shown [7]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Operating Rate**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production of silicomanganese in China and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicomanganese enterprises [10]. - **Production - Regional Production**: The monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [11][12]. Manganese Silicone Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: The monthly purchase prices of silicomanganese by various steel enterprises, such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, etc., are shown [15]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are presented [17]. Manganese Silicone Import and Export - The monthly import and export quantities of silicomanganese in China are shown [19]. Manganese Silicone Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises in China, as well as the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21]. Manganese Silicone Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of manganese ore in China, including imports from different regions such as Gabon, Africa, and Australia, is shown [23]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, including at Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of inventory in China are presented [25]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore in China, including Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore at Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, is shown [27]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore at Tianjin Port, such as South African semi - carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore, is presented [28]. - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicomanganese in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, is shown [29]. Manganese Silicone Profit - **Regional Profit**: The daily profit of silicomanganese in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi, is presented [31].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for flexible and proactive macroeconomic policies to address ongoing uncertainties while maintaining a stable economic recovery trajectory [1][4][12]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged that major economic indicators showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with GDP growth of 6.5% in Q2 2023, a significant increase from the previous year's 3.6% [4][5]. - Despite the positive indicators, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and external uncertainties remain prevalent [2][3]. Policy Direction - The meeting did not call for increased macroeconomic control but instead focused on maintaining policy continuity and stability, suggesting a lower probability of immediate policy tightening [4][6]. - Emphasis was placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [2][4][6]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - A key focus is on expanding domestic demand through consumption, with initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending and improving living standards [5][8]. - The government plans to implement a series of measures to boost consumption, including financial incentives for personal loans and support for service sector financing [8]. Market Structure and Competition - The meeting highlighted the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and eliminate disorderly competition among enterprises [9][10]. - Legal reforms, such as the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, aim to foster a fair competitive environment and protect consumer rights [10]. Real Estate Sector - The meeting acknowledged the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting urban renewal [10][11]. - Policies will be implemented to support the real estate sector, including financial measures to ensure stability and growth [11][12].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 31, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.444 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 21.0%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,819.3 in July, a month-on-month increase of 8.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.5%, down from 51% in June, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The new orders index dropped to 49.4%, down from 50.2%, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% from 47.7%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6% in July, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity[3] Price Performance - As of August 1, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week-on-week, while the futures price of live pigs increased by 0.50%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables rose by 0.64%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits fell by 0.06%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a strong increase in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.78% and 3.48% respectively[4] Fiscal and Investment - This week, the issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with an additional 350 billion yuan in special government bonds and 2.53 trillion yuan in special bonds issued, marking a 63.3% progress rate[7] - The issuance of local general bonds reached a progress rate of 63.9%[7] Monetary and Liquidity - The yield curve for government bonds is trending downward, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.7059%, down 3 basis points from the previous week[9] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan this week[9]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to appropriately increase efforts in response to changing economic conditions [1][4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating a new requirement in the current economic context [1][7] - The article discusses the coherent development of the economic situation, acknowledging both positive trends and significant challenges, which reflects the basic judgment of the economic landscape [2] Group 2 - The focus is on "reasonable quantitative growth" while prioritizing "effective qualitative improvement," which aligns with the ongoing requirement for high-quality development [3] - The article stresses that macro policies must not only be proposed but also effectively implemented to ensure successful economic work this year [4] - The combination of "sustained efforts and timely increases" in policy measures is essential for addressing new situations that may arise in the second half of the year [6] Group 3 - The article underscores the relationship between maintaining policy continuity and enhancing flexibility and foresight, which is crucial for stabilizing expectations among domestic and foreign investors [7] - It emphasizes the need for macro policies to be responsive and adaptable to changing circumstances while also being proactive in anticipating opportunities and challenges [7][9] - The latest deployment from the Central Political Bureau meeting is significant for both immediate economic goals and long-term stability as China approaches a new five-year plan [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year's H1 economic data remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. July's PMI data was below expectations, with both supply and demand sides declining. New export orders and high - frequency port data indicated a potential weakening of the front - loading export effect, and future exports may face pressure. - In terms of funds, the increase in government bond issuance and maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, as well as fluctuations in the stock and commodity markets, had an impact on capital flow. However, the central bank's supportive attitude towards funds is expected to maintain overall liquidity in the future. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term. However, the recent positive sentiment in the stock market has suppressed the bond market, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: H1 economic data was resilient under tariff influence. July's PMI was below expectations. Overseas, the FOMC meeting showed a marginally hawkish stance from the Fed, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a US rate cut in September increased. There were also important domestic and international policy events such as the Politburo meeting, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the announcement of the national childcare subsidy system [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1633.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield was 1.71%, down 3.17BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield was 1.95%, down 3.70BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit conditions [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [19][22][25]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. - Price Index: In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - Export: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. - Investment and Real Estate Data: In June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and real estate - related data showed continued adjustment [43][49][52]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US: Q1 GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 0.3%. In June, CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000. - EU: Q1 GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 [70][73][79]. 4. Liquidity - In June, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and the social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. - In July, the MLF balance was 535 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection through reverse repurchases was 6.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [84][90]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The latest 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, with corresponding week - on - week changes of - 1.29BP, - 5.66BP, - 3.17BP, and - 3.70BP. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [93]. - **Exchange Rates**: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided, only relevant data charts were presented [101].

今日摘要 《新闻联播》推出系列报道《习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实》，今天播出《奋力打开改革发展新 天地》。 上半年，国内居民出游人次超32亿，同比增长20.6%。 系列报道《铭记历史缅怀先烈》今天播出："刘老庄连"一代代官兵始终保持"不畏强敌、敢打必胜"的血 性胆气，勇往直前、续写荣光。 系列报道《党旗在基层一线高高飘扬》今天来看：北京怀柔区村支书尹春燕和丈夫蔡永章在防汛救灾中 为转移群众不幸被洪水冲走，目前正在全力搜救。 俄罗斯称，俄军在前线全面推进，进展积极。乌克兰称，在波克罗夫斯克击退俄军66次进攻。 联合国儿童基金会警告称，加沙地带儿童面临严重的人道危机。 内容速览 【习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实】奋力打开改革发展新天地 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是进一步全面深化改革的重要一年。今年以来，面对错综复杂的国际 国内形势和艰巨繁重的改革发展稳定任务，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门 积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新 成效。《新闻联播》从今天起推出系列报道《习近平总书记今年以来治国理政纪实》，今天播出《奋力 打开改革 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q2 2025 met market expectations, but the fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and real estate sectors faced challenges. The export and industrial added - value in June exceeded expectations. The domestic real estate market continued to decline, and the Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand. The "anti - involution" policies may have a more moderate and long - term impact. Policy decisions may be made based on economic changes, and new policies may be introduced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter [84]. Summary by Related Content GDP and Industry Contribution - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% year - on - year respectively in Q2. The contributions of the three industries to GDP in Q2 were 4.6%, 34.2%, and 61.2% respectively [4][6]. GDP Growth Contribution Factors - In Q2 2025, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively [9]. GDP Deflator - The GDP deflator in Q2 2025 decreased 1.20% year - on - year, showing a negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023 [12]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 8.9% year - on - year, while narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew 4.6% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year [15]. Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, the decline rate of national new housing sales area accelerated [18][21][23]. Social Consumption - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.6%. The growth rates of most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size decreased compared with May [26][28]. Service Industry - In June 2025, the service industry production index grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries were relatively high [30]. Foreign Trade - In June 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. In July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [33][36][38]. Industrial Sector - In June 2025, the added - value of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation. The product sales rate was 94.3%, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74.0% [41][43][45]. Employment and Prices - In June 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. The CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year. In July, agricultural product prices hovered at a low level, and the average domestic gasoline price was higher than that in June [47][49][57]. Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI - In July 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The manufacturing production continued to expand, while the demand re - entered the contraction range. The service industry activity expectation index increased slightly [68][71][81].

Group 1 - The article highlights the publication of an important speech by Xi Jinping on ecological environment protection in the latest issue of "Qiushi" magazine [6] - Xi Jinping and the President of Nepal exchanged congratulatory messages to celebrate the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Nepal [7] - The article emphasizes the significance of the Army's role under the leadership of the Communist Party and Xi Jinping, especially on the occasion of the Army Day [8] Group 2 - Zhao Leji attended the sixth World Speakers Conference and delivered a speech advocating for multilateralism [9] - Various local departments are actively engaged in flood relief efforts and the reconstruction of affected areas [3][11] - China's macroeconomic policies are set to continue strengthening to support economic recovery [4][12] Group 3 - The World Trade Organization reported a strong growth in Asia's service trade, driven by China, with a 9% year-on-year increase in the first quarter [5][18] - The electronic information manufacturing industry in China saw a significant increase of 11.1% in value added year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the overall industrial growth [13] - The renewable energy sector in China achieved a remarkable growth, with new installations reaching 268 million kilowatts, a 99.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for approximately 91.5% of total new installations [13]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者8月1日从国家发展改革委了解到，我国宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。 在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设方面，将进一步规范政府行为尺度，制定《妨碍统一市场和公平竞争行为防范事项清单》。依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推 进重点行业产能治理，加快推进价格法修订，将重点治理为排挤竞争对手或独占市场，低于成本价倾销的行为。规范招标投标，规范地方招商引资行为。 在创新方面，将深入实施"人工智能+"行动，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化应用，着力优化人工智能创新生态，加大政策支持力度。 此外，国家发展改革委还将常态化开展政策预研储备，不断完善稳就业、扩内需政策"工具箱"，根据实际需要及时推出。 在全方位扩大内需方面，将加快"两重"建设项目、中央预算内投资项目建设进度。10月份将按计划下达第四批690亿元消费品以旧换新资金，确保资金有序 均衡用到年底。严防"先涨后补"、骗补套补等风险。近期，国家发展改革委还将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具，推动民营企业更多参与国家重大项 目建设。 ...