国家统计局网站消息，国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问。 1.今年以来，面对复杂环境中国经济运行情况如何？请问如何评价前三季度的经济运行总体表现？ 答：今年以来，我国经济发展历程很不平凡。面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的党中央总揽全局、科学决策，各地区各部门沉着应对、狠抓落实，全国上下同心同德、共 克时艰，我国经济发展顶住压力，取得了难能可贵的发展成绩，经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进 发展态势。 第二，尽管经济增速有所回落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。从增长水平看，我国三季度4.8%的 经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济体，对于我们这么大体量的经济体尤为难能可贵。三季度经济总 量达35.5万亿元，超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。从就业物价看，就业形势总体稳定， 物价运行有所改善。三季度城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平，核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大，PPI降幅连续 2个月收窄。从国际收支看，保持总体平衡。三季度货物进出口总额同比增长6.0%，外汇储备连续2个 月增加。从发展质量看，经济转型升级态势持续。三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值 ...

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's economic stability and growth trajectory remain intact despite external pressures and internal challenges, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters of the year, surpassing the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points [1][3][9]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 39.679 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.368 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a stable economic performance [3]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating effective demand stimulation policies [3][4]. High-Quality Development - The article highlights the ongoing push for high-quality development, with significant contributions from new production capacities and technological advancements, including a 9.6% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing value added [4][15]. - The share of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption rose by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing progress in green and low-carbon transitions [4][22]. Economic Resilience - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience, achieving a 5.2% growth rate amidst global economic uncertainties and trade protectionism, positioning it as a stable growth engine compared to other major economies [5][8]. - The article notes that despite challenges, the internal logic supporting economic stability remains unchanged, with ample policy space and tools available to address various risks [6][9]. Policy Implementation - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has effectively supported economic stability, with consumer spending contributing 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [11][12]. - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 14% year-on-year, indicating a robust push for industrial upgrades and technological improvements [12]. New Production Capacity - The development of new production capacities is highlighted as a key driver for high-quality growth, with significant investments in sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, leading to substantial increases in production output [14][16]. - The article mentions that the scale of high-tech manufacturing has seen a 9.6% increase in value added, with specific sectors like integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 22.4% [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the article conveys a positive outlook for China's economic performance, emphasizing the importance of continued policy support and structural reforms to maintain growth momentum and address existing challenges [10][24].

中国国内生产总值（GDP）1015036亿元 按不变价格计算 【导读】前三季度国内生产总值（ GDP ）同比增长 5.2%，其中第三季度增长4.8% 来源：国家统计局 国家统计局10月20日发布数据显示 初步核算 2025年前三季度 同比增长5.2% 前三季度经济运行稳中有进 高质量发展取得积极成效 国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问 1.今年以来，面对复杂环境中国经济运行情况如何？请问如何评价前三季度的经济运行总体表 现？ 答： 今年以来，我国经济发展历程很不平凡。面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局 面，以习近平同志为核心的党中央总揽全局、科学决策，各地区各部门沉着应对、狠抓落 实，全国上下同心同德、共克时艰，我国经济发展顶住压力，取得了难能可贵的发展成绩， 经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一是经济平稳运行的主基调没有改变。经济增长、就业、价格和国际收支是观察经济运行最 为重要的宏观指标。 从经济增长看，前三季度国内生产总值（ GDP ）同比增长 5.2% ，比 上年全年和上年同期分别加快 0.2 、 0.4 个百分点；经济增量达到 39679 亿元，同比多增 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问 1.今年以来，面对复杂环境中国经济运行情况如何？请问如何评价前三季度的经济运行总体表现？ 答：今年以来，我国经济发展历程很不平凡。面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的党中央总揽全局、科学决策，各地区各部门沉着应对、狠抓落实，全国上下同心同德、共 克时艰，我国经济发展顶住压力，取得了难能可贵的发展成绩，经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进 发展态势。 一是经济平稳运行的主基调没有改变。经济增长、就业、价格和国际收支是观察经济运行最为重要的宏 观指标。从经济增长看，前三季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别 加快0.2、0.4个百分点；经济增量达到39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。对于我国这样超大体量的经济体 而言，能够保持稳定发展殊为不易，在各种风险挑战交织的背景下更显可贵。从就业物价看，前三季 度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，与上半年持平；居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比略降0.1%，但 扣除食品和能源的核心CPI上涨0.6%，其中9月份上涨1.0%，涨幅连续5个月扩大，反映了扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure has increased. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, and attention should be paid to policy expectations and the potential correction of the current off - peak season situation [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown, and the subsequent development of the event should be monitored [3] - For commodity sectors, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the near term. Different sectors have different characteristics and risks, and attention should be paid to specific factors such as downstream demand, supply constraints, and policy impacts [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the economic pressure increased marginally in August, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To cope with external pressure, the government proposed policies to stabilize growth, with a new policy - based financial instrument scale of 500 billion yuan [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The US has taken a series of measures such as including Chinese enterprises in the entity list and imposing additional tariffs, and China has responded with counter - measures. The risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant before the APEC Summit [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In September, the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined slightly, and in August, new home sales increased unexpectedly [3] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, the chemical sector has "anti - involution" space, agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, and precious metals have high short - term price fluctuation risks [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, exports and imports increased, and the trade surplus decreased [6] - China has taken counter - measures against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's five US - related subsidiaries for their support of the US government's investigation against China [6] - China's September monetary supply, social financing scale, and credit data have changed, and the decline in CPI and PPI has narrowed [6] - The Fed Chairman may stop reducing the balance sheet in the next few months. The US Treasury Secretary plans to submit candidates for the next Fed Chairman to Trump after Thanksgiving [6] - The US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, and a judge blocked the government's plan to lay off employees during the shutdown. US API crude oil and refined oil inventory data have changed [3][6] Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In September, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the services PMI was 54.2. Investment, consumption, and other aspects showed different trends, and the contribution rates of various factors to GDP were different [8] - **European Economic Heat Map**: In September, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the services PMI was 51.3. Inflation, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding changes [9] - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In September, China's GDP grew steadily. Investment, consumption, and other fields showed different trends, and the contribution rates of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP were 44.5%, 25.2% + 30.3%, and the rest respectively [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises in China have shown a positive trend in development, with sales revenue increasing by 8.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, which is an acceleration of 4.1 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - High-tech manufacturing enterprises within this category have experienced even stronger growth, with sales revenue rising by 11.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The adjustment of the duty-free shopping policy for travelers in Hainan will take effect on November 1, 2025, introducing new categories of goods such as pet supplies and portable musical instruments [2] - The category of "home air purifiers and accessories" has been reclassified to "small household appliances," which now includes items like robotic vacuum cleaners and vacuum cleaners [2] - The category of "wearable devices and other electronic consumer products" has been broadened to "electronic consumer products," adding digital photography and videography equipment and accessories, as well as mini drones [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has sparked discussions about the potential for a long-term appreciation cycle, driven by both internal and external factors [3][4][8]. External Factors - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, leading the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point reduction announced on September 18, 2025 [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined significantly, down nearly 9% year-to-date, creating favorable conditions for non-USD currencies to appreciate [4]. Internal Factors - China's economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the core CPI rising 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first increase in 19 months [4]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the RMB [6]. - China's trade surplus and improved economic sentiment have provided fundamental support for the RMB [6][8]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing consensus among experts that the RMB may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, although "two-way fluctuations" will likely become the norm rather than a one-sided appreciation [8][9]. - The relative economic advantages between China and the U.S. are expected to support the RMB's strength, as China is positioned to enter an upward economic phase while the U.S. faces a prolonged downturn [8][12]. Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate while allowing for market-driven fluctuations [9][11]. - Recent government measures, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools, are expected to bolster market confidence and support the RMB [11][12].

财政支出方面，唐龙生表示，财政支出靠前发力，重点领域支出保障有力。今年以来，财政部门加强资 源统筹，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，民生、科技等国家重大战略领域得到较好保障。前三季度，全 国一般公共预算支出20.81万亿元，同比增长3.1%。其中，社会保障和就业支出增长10%，教育支出增 长5.4%，卫生健康支出增长4.7%，科学技术支出增长6.5%，节能环保支出增长8.8%，文化旅游体育与 传媒支出增长4%。上述6项支出增幅均为近三年同期最高水平。 财政部国库支付中心副主任唐龙生10月17日在财政部召开的2025年前三季度财政收支情况新闻发布会上 介绍，今年以来，各地区各部门认真落实更加积极有为的宏观政策，迎难而上、沉着应对，我国经济运 行顶住压力、稳中有进，展现出强大韧性和活力。财政政策更加积极、接续发力，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，保持必要支出强度，加大对基本民生和重点领域的经费保障，财政运行总体平稳 有序。 唐龙生介绍，财政收入增幅逐季回升。前三季度，全国一般公共预算收入16.39万亿元，同比增长 0.5%。分季度看，一季度下降1.1%；二季度由降转升，增长0.6%；进入第三季度，7月份增长2. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, Trump restarted the trade war against China, imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Relevant measures were introduced to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries like steel. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and enterprises should pay attention to the transition from output control to carbon - emission control. Overseas, short - term funds flowed to US Treasury bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threat. The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers maintained normal production to fulfill previous orders. The inventory was at a neutral level, and the short - term cost was supported by the stable price of semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were in the red, at - 445 yuan/ton and - 390 yuan/ton respectively. Technically, the weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that ferrosilicon will oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro and Overseas**: Trump's tariff threat led to a decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Measures were introduced for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry. The domestic steel demand will decline in the future. Overseas, funds flowed to safe - havens due to the tariff threat, and the IMF raised the world economic growth forecast [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturers maintained normal production, with a neutral inventory level. The short - term cost was supported by semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were negative [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With high - level production and a downward trend in subsequent crude steel output, the alloy is likely to remain in the red. Ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon futures contract持仓量 was 412,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 78, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,611, a decrease of 3,693. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9][12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon basis was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 points [21]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: This week (October 16), the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The daily average output was 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62%. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,572.5 tons, a decrease of 0.92%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 112,800 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 69,080 tons, an increase of 4.62% [27][31]. - **Upstream**: As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.005 yuan/kWh. As of October 16, the semi - coke price remained unchanged. The ferrosilicon spot production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%, and in Ningxia was 5,522 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 0.11%. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 445 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.48%, and in Ningxia was - 392 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.51% [35][38]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. From January to August 2025, China's ferrosilicon export volume was 254,200 tons, a decrease of 25,800 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 9.21% [44].