1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For finished products, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will fluctuate within a short - term range. The downstream is at the stage of alternating between peak and off - peak seasons, and the inventory is still being depleted. Attention should be paid to the support of subsequent inventory performance on prices, as well as macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Production Shutdown Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, with resumption expected from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. Some individual steel mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. 3.2铝锭 (Aluminum Ingots) - **Production Situation**: In April 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity maintenance, which has little impact on the supply side [3]. - **Demand Situation**: Before the festival, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% from the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable industry, the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal decline in terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream start - up rate [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous Monday [3]. - **Macro Situation**: The domestic macro - environment has a positive atmosphere, while overseas, Trump's policy attitude is changeable, and there are many uncertainties in the tariff war, which puts pressure on the market [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月期间国内主产区安监环境平稳，山西煤炭产量维持高位，钢联统计的 523 家炼焦煤 矿精煤产量月内持续回升，而进口量虽同比或有小幅下滑，但减量预计有限，焦煤供应压力依然居 高不下。此外，中美贸易摩擦压制黑色金属终端产品出口，叠加地产、基建表现低迷，内需支撑有 限，焦煤中长期需求担忧仍存。供需数据方面，根据钢联统计，截至 5 月 2 日当周，全国 523 家炼 焦煤矿精煤日均产量 80.4 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨，连续第 6 周录得正增长，较去年同期产量偏 高 5.7 万吨。进口方面，4 月 21 至 26 日，甘其毛都口岸累计通关车数 3877 车，周环比减少 2329 车。需求方面，5 月 2 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 114.41 万吨，周环比增加 0.09 万 吨。综上，焦煤价格持续下挫，且其供应宽松局面并未扭转，基本面整体依然偏空，叠加当前宏观 向上驱 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 制造业 PMI 走弱，降息预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货继续窄幅震荡整理。上周三统计局公布了 4 月制造业 PMI 数据为 49.0%， 比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，回落至收缩区间。这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Insights - Industrial metals are experiencing a rebound in prices due to ongoing inventory depletion, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices showing increases of +1.11%, +0.83%, +0.57%, +1.28%, +0.35%, and +1.79% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors, including concerns over economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which have led to increased market volatility [2]. - Key recommendations include companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, indicating strong potential for investment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes a significant decrease in inventory levels for copper, with SMM social inventory dropping below 130,000 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [2][38]. - Aluminum production is recovering due to domestic restarts and new projects, with a notable inventory reduction of 71,000 tons driven by pre-holiday stocking [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing tightness in the cobalt market due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to lead to price increases [3][54]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have recently declined due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid optimistic trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, while silver prices have shown resilience due to its industrial applications [3][66]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices driven by de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite short-term fluctuations [3][66]. Key Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 14 times [4]. - Other companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are also highlighted for their strong earnings potential and favorable market conditions [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Q1 earnings continue to be under pressure, with a slight improvement in cash flow. The company reported a total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that while revenue remains under pressure, the company has managed to control expenses effectively, leading to a slight decrease in expense ratios despite the revenue decline [8] - New contract signings in Q1 2025 decreased by 10.5% year-on-year, but there was notable growth in green environmental contracts, which increased by 77.1% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that despite external economic pressures, the company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support and a gradual recovery in infrastructure investment [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed improvement, with a net cash outflow of 38.95 billion yuan, which was 7.65 billion yuan less than the previous year [8] Order Book and Contracts - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with engineering contracts down 18.7% [8] - The report notes strong performance in the railway, mining, and power sectors, with new contracts in these areas increasing by 66.3%, 139.3%, and 29.2% respectively [8] - The total uncompleted contract amount as of the end of Q1 2025 was 7,861.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year, indicating a solid order backlog [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 21.9 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.8, 4.7, and 4.6 times [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expectation of recovery in valuation due to the company's position as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure [8]

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 27 April 2025 Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085 tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch China: April Politburo meeting emphasized policy reserves No rush for more incremental policy stimulus yet, as expected The April Politburo meeting was held on 25 April, focusing on economic conditions and policy guidance. This policy event has been closely watched by market participants in antic ...

月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a stable start and good performance under more proactive macro policies [1] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank market decreased, with a total transaction volume of 452 trillion yuan, down 24% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year [1] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing more proactive macro policies, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain liquidity [1][2] - The net liquidity injection from monetary policy operations in the first quarter was 22,618 billion yuan, with significant reverse repo operations [2] Repo Rates and Market Dynamics - Major repo rates initially increased and then decreased, with the overnight repo rate (DR001) and the overnight pledged repo rate (R001) rising by 34 and 37 basis points respectively to 1.77% and 1.95% [3] - The first quarter saw fluctuations in funding rates due to seasonal factors and liquidity conditions, with DR007 reaching a high of 2.34% [3] Government Bond Issuance and Market Activity - A total of 12.3 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first quarter, a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 24% increase year-on-year [4] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was notably high, with the issuance pace reaching about 30% of the annual target, the highest level for the same period in recent years [4][5] Bond Market Performance - Bond yields increased across various maturities, with the 1-year and 10-year government bond yields rising by 45 and 11 basis points respectively [5] - The yield curve for 10-year government bonds showed a fluctuation range of approximately 30 basis points [5] RMB Derivatives Market - The RMB derivatives market saw significant growth, with daily trading volume of interest rate swaps increasing by 33.4% in the first quarter [6] - The average nominal principal amount for RMB interest rate swaps reached 11.1 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 1,876.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.2% increase [6]