最近几周，美国关税政策不确定性令全球经济前景蒙尘。同时，由此导致的政策信誉受损，也令美元资产反噬， 美国遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数今年迄今，已跌超9%，并料将继续下跌。而美元走软，给全球央行同时带来了缓 解因素和头痛因素。 美国银行最近的全球基金经理调查显示，61%的参与者预计未来12个月美元将继续下跌，这是近20年来主要投资 者对美元最悲观的预期。 更大降息空间？ 资金流出美元资产反映了更广泛的信心危机，并可能产生溢出效应。例如随着美元走弱，美国进口通胀率将上 升。 对其他经济体而言，美元的下跌也导致其他货币对美元升值，尤其是日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等避险货币。伦敦证 交所（LSEG）的数据显示，自今年年初以来，日元对美元升值逾10%，瑞士法郎和欧元升值了约11%。除了避险 货币，今年对美元走强的其他货币还包括墨西哥比索对美元上涨5.5%，加元对美元升值超过4%，波兰兹罗提对美 元也升值了9%以上，俄罗斯卢布对美元甚至升值了约22%。 当然，尽管美元疲软，一些新兴市场货币对美元也仍然录得贬值。比如，本月稍早，越南盾和印尼盾对美元汇率 均跌至历史新低。土耳其里拉上周对美元也创下历史新低。 根据美国银行最近的全球基金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tension between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell could lead to significant implications for the U.S. dollar, which has already seen a notable decline this year, raising concerns about potential economic instability [3][4]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 9% this year, with a nearly 6% drop occurring just this month [3]. - The dollar's current decline has erased all gains from the previous year, and it is on track to record its largest monthly drop since the 2007-09 global financial crisis [3][4]. - The scale of the current dollar sell-off is described as historic, with potential long-term impacts on the credibility of U.S. economic decision-making [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are increasingly concerned about the implications of political interference in the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the dollar's credibility and attractiveness to foreign investors [4]. - Current market expectations suggest that if Powell were to be dismissed, the Federal Reserve might adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates by 100 basis points to a range of 3.25% - 3.50% [5]. - The likelihood of Powell being dismissed by the end of the year is currently estimated at 19%, indicating a rising concern about the pressure on the dollar and the associated uncertainties for the global economy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the simultaneous rise in bond yields and depreciation of the dollar is unusual, but it is premature to conclude that the U.S. is no longer a safe haven [1] Group 1 - The increase in bond yields is noted as a rare occurrence alongside a weakening dollar [1] - Waller emphasizes caution in interpreting these market movements, suggesting that the U.S. still retains its status as a safe haven [1]

承德的这座小布达拉宫，是乾隆把自己60岁的寿辰和甄嬛80岁的寿辰放到一起办，另外恰逢 蒙古 土尔扈特万里东归清朝，就建了这座庙庆祝，清 朝很重视用藏传佛教来协助对蒙藏地区的统治。 昨天晚上有读者在评论席贴了一张他拍的照片，我今天去不到那个拍摄位置了，借他的转发一下。普陀宗乘的主体宫殿高度大概是西藏原版的37%，缩小 版本了，没去过西藏的先去承德看看也不错 : 3 · · · Housial : 31: :11: . 5 e = 的漫画 . . r 2 OTO 一同时 an and the later the later the see and the see and the see and the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the see and the see and the see and the see . I 早上一睁眼就看见窗外碧蓝的天，雨和雾都没了，绝好的天气。 粗发～今天的目标是普陀宗乘之庙，这个名字略有些拗口，其实就是布达拉宫的汉译版，都是观音圣地的意思。这里有个小知识，达赖活佛在藏传佛教里 是观音 ...

"几乎不会出现通货膨胀，但经济可能会放缓，除非'太迟先生'（即鲍威尔）、这个大输家现在就降低利率。"当地时间周一，特朗普在社交平台上写 道。 这已经是欧洲央行降息后，特朗普第三天公开呼吁美联储跟进降息。特朗普此番猛烈炮轰鲍威尔，同时以不降息就会威胁经济发展相要挟，要求美联 储立即降息。 受特朗普言论影响，市场对美联储独立性及经济前景的担忧加剧。 4 月 21 日，美元指数大幅下跌，一度跌破 98 关口，创下 2022 年 3 月以来的 新低。即便是 4 月 22 日，有所回暖，但依旧在 98 左右徘徊。 美股则在经历了＂黑色星期一＂后， 4月22日开盘终于有了小幅回升 ， 道指开盘涨1.1%，标普500涨1.0%，纳指涨1.2% 。 而有避险属性的黄金价格则一路狂飙， 4 月 22 日，现货黄金价格突破 3500 美元 / 盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨幅超 2.2% ，本月以来累计涨幅 更是超过 12% 。 外界普遍认为，特朗普持续要求美联储降息的举动，实质是为可能出现的经济疲软提前撰写 "问责剧本"——一旦美联储未能迅速响应降息，他便会 将贸易战引发的经济疲软归咎于对方。 但特朗普政府自身的经济政策才是美国经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is orderly and has not caused fragmentation or turmoil in the currency markets [1] Group 1 - The chief economist of the IMF, Gourinchas, emphasizes that the current depreciation of the dollar is managed and does not lead to significant disruptions in the financial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that President Trump is adept at public relations and manipulating public opinion, particularly in his recent attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which serve to deflect blame for economic turmoil away from himself [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's actions have led to a depreciation of the dollar, which has fallen approximately 6% since "Liberation Day," with specific declines against the euro (4%), Swiss franc (7%), gold (10%), and Mexican peso (3%) [2]. - The depreciation of the dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper for foreign consumers, potentially benefiting certain non-dollar assets like cryptocurrencies [2]. - Long-term interest rates have risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 20 basis points to 4.4% since "Liberation Day," and 30-year fixed mortgage rates rising from 6.7% to 6.9% [7]. Group 2: Political Strategy - Trump has successfully shifted blame for economic issues onto Powell and the Federal Reserve, despite being the one who appointed Powell, creating a narrative that absolves himself of responsibility [3][4]. - The article highlights that having a clear enemy, such as Powell, fuels tribalism and helps maintain Trump's support among his base, with 35% of the public strongly approving of his performance [3][4]. - The potential for Trump to dismiss Powell is seen as a strategy to maintain a scapegoat for future economic turmoil, as it would be difficult for him to blame anyone else if he were to install a puppet successor [6].

4月21日，美国三大股指全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌971.82点，跌幅达2.48%，报38,170.41 点。标普500指数下跌2.36%，收于5,158.20点；纳斯达克综合指数更是下挫2.55%，收报15,870.90点， 创下自今年2月以来最大单日跌幅。 尽管总统直接解雇美联储主席在法律上存在复杂性，但他的言论足以在市场中激起巨大不安。"我们正 目睹的是一场围绕货币政策主导权的争夺战，"Simplify Asset Management首席策略师Michael Green指 出，"这令人联想到疫情初期政府与美联储间的矛盾冲突。" 除股市指数与科技巨头外，美元指数也在持续下跌，4月21日纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.94%，报 98.294点，在年内累计跌近10%。 21日早间开盘，美元指数在盘初就"跳空低开"，跌破99关口，随后在98至99区间内震荡走弱，北京时间 17:21跌至97.921点，随后低位震荡，为2022年3月30日以来首次跌穿98点。 长期来看，自1月升破110关口后，美元指数持续下跌，年内跌近10% 在金融市场中，美元指数"跌破百点"通常被视为趋势性转折的起点，而当其进一步 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the trade war has led to a significant depreciation of the US dollar, resulting in a loss of confidence in the US government under Donald Trump [1][2][7] - The recent excessive depreciation of the dollar is causing a global issue, as the world is losing faith in the US [2][8] - The dollar has historically been a safe haven for cross-border trade, but its status is declining under the current administration [5][8] Group 2 - The dollar's value has decreased against other currencies, with a drop of over 5% against the British pound and over 6% against the Japanese yen as of April 21 [10] - The US federal debt has reached 120% of the annual economic output, which is a dangerous signal for the dollar's stability [12] - The Trump administration's military strategies have not yielded desired results, leading to a focus on negotiations to maintain dollar stability [13][14]

带着老妈去承德玩了。 我以前对承德有两个印象，一个是电视广告里的承德露露，还有一个就是评上世遗的避暑山庄。 有一个著名的历史事件，就是乾隆70岁的时候邀请藏族领袖祝寿，6世班禅率领一个2000人的团队，从西藏出发前后走了1年半达到承德，受到了隆重礼 遇。祝寿活动结束后班禅去北京弘扬佛法，结果不到2个月就死于天花。 所以避暑、维系草原统治、天花防疫隔离，三大因素加在一起才促成了承德行宫的建成。也是因为先有了避暑山庄，才有了后来的承德市。 …… 睡完午觉出发，因为是淡季，景区人很少，稀稀落落。我们刚到买票处就有个导游主动询问是否需要服务，态度有些过于"上赶着"，我误以为是黑导游， 后来经售票处工作人员证明是正规人员，我就买了全程陪导服务，不贵，两个小时150。 我问她为什么拉生意的时候那么着急，她说她每天只有10分钟的接客时间，看见我们的时候马上就要10分钟超时了。 承德确实比北京凉快，全年平均要低4-5度，它虽然和北京直线距离不到200公里，但中间隔了一个燕山，北京在山南，承德在山北。 同时承德紧挨着北边的草原，清朝皇帝来到这里很方便接见蒙古贵族，维持对蒙古地区的统治。 另外承德行宫在历史上还有一个功能，就是天 ...