| | 1、央行公告称，12月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1173亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1173 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1173亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1563亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼390亿元。 | | | 2、国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强强调，今年中国经济顶压前行，取得新的发 | | | 展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向好势头，经济总量将再上新台 | | | 阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 | | | 3、财政部副部长廖岷就"1+10"对话会有关情况答记者问：与会国际经济组织的负责人一致认为，面对挑战，国际社 会必须展现出超越分歧的团结与智慧，采取协同一致的行动，持续为世界经济注入确定性与新动力。加强国际宏观经 | | | 济政策协调。主要经济体应关注宏观政策的外溢影响，共同应对通胀、债务与汇率波动风险。积极化解和减少贸易政 | | | 策的不确定性，有效应对贸易壁垒上升和贸易碎片化。进一步完善各国国内政策。更加注重财政 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Although there are expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, there is supply pressure on long - term bonds in the short term and institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, so there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. The Politburo meeting indicates that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, so there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, considering the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first quarter and the supply pressure of long - term bonds, as well as institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。图是高科技企业云集的深圳湾。 新华社发 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年 经济工作作出一系列重要部署。 围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，并提出做好明年经济工作的"八个 坚持"，将"坚持内需主导"置于首位。 2026年，中国经济如何前行?哪些重点领域值得关注? 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入解读。 政策基调 "要坚持稳中求进、提质增效" 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"十五五"规划建议指出，"'十五五'时期我国 发展环境面临深刻复杂变化"，"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时 期"。围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。 华泰证券认为，从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，经济政策基调从"进"和"立"到重"质"和"效"。从政策基调 的措辞看，今年政治局会议要求"稳中求进、提质增效"，而2024年12月政治局会议则强调"坚持稳中求 进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合"，主因去 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and slightly declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.92 trillion yuan, a decrease of 134 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The Political Bureau meeting pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, driving up the market's risk appetite. However, near the end of the year, the power of capital to drive the market to break through is insufficient, and there is still a need for short - term shock consolidation. Currently, the stock indices remain within the previous shock range. Subsequently, as more policy details are introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of policy benefits will gradually become the main line of the market, and the capital inflow is expected to continue, driving the stock indices to have a spring market. In general, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock indices will be mainly fluctuating strongly in the short term. [3] - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 9, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to close at 3.142; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.51% to close at 4.708; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 4.783; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to close at 4598.22; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.57% to close at 7380.58; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.74% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.80% to close at 2.844; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.54% to close at 3.188; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.29% to close at 3.467; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.71% to close at 2997.96; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.42% to close at 1.41; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.36% to close at 1.37. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 9, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 79.26 (previous day: 78.66), and the position PCR being 101.14 (previous day: 107.67). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 is 11.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 11.04%. [7][8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms for options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][20][33]

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/9 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2512） 4543.8 IH主力合约（2512） 2981.8 | 458 ...

新华财经北京12月9日电（王菁）债市周二（9日）整体走强，国债期货主力全线收涨，银行间现券收益 率普遍回落1-2BPs，超长端率先回暖，曲线中段亦明显下移；公开市场单日净回笼390亿元，短端资金 利率延续上行。 机构认为，重要会议释放不少增量信息，市场对更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策表述早有预 期，对短期交投影响有限。此前债券走弱或在于年末机构止盈需求，机构抛售兑现老券浮盈叠加买盘力 量弱，需关注是否会形成负反馈。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.45%报112.59，10年期主力合约涨0.12%报107.98，5年期 主力合约涨0.07%报105.785，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.43。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.5BP报2.255%，"25超 长特别国债02"收益率下行2.55BPs报2.2425%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行1.35BP报1.9175%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.61%，报480.96点，成交金额557.08亿元，瑞达转债、豫光转债、亿田转债、 福新转债、汇成转债跌幅居前，分 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - 2025 marks a critical turning point as broad fiscal budget expenditures return to an expansionary cycle, with significant adjustments made to increase fiscal resources while lowering revenue targets[6] - The broad fiscal deficit rate in 2025 reaches 8.4%, surpassing the historical high of 8.1% set in 2020[7] - The proportion of total fiscal expenditure to GDP has rebounded for the first time since 2020, indicating the start of a new expenditure expansion cycle[15] Group 2: Social Spending and Impact - Actual spending on social welfare areas reached a record high in recent years, with 1-10 months' social-related expenditure accounting for 40.6% of total spending, the highest in five years[20] - In the 2025 budget, education spending accounts for 15.0%, social security and employment for 14.8%, and health spending for 7.2%, reflecting a slight increase in focus on social welfare[19] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Revenue - Local government revenue has achieved positive growth for the second consecutive year, with a 2.1% increase in local fiscal revenue despite a decline in non-tax revenue growth[30] - Debt resolution policies have significantly reduced local government debt burdens, with early repayment of high-interest debts reaching 24.48 billion yuan, the highest in recent years[33] Group 4: Investment Support and Challenges - Fiscal support for investment has weakened compared to 2024, with infrastructure-related spending growth remaining low and focused primarily on social welfare[38] - The issuance of special bonds has slowed in the second half of 2025, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, compared to 4.0 trillion yuan in the same period last year[39] Group 5: Execution and Policy Implementation - The pace of fiscal spending has slowed, with the budget execution rate in 2025 being lower than in previous years, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal policy execution[44] - Key policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as pension increases and birth subsidies, have been delayed, limiting their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth[52]

截至2025年12月9日 09:35，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.51%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF盘中换手 1.41%，成交4.27亿元。拉长时间看，截至12月8日，30年国债ETF近1年日均成交83.46亿元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 据Wind数据显示，规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达303.55亿元。 消息方面，12月8日，政治局会议的召开令市场心态略缓，12月9日，国债期货全线高开，30年期主力合 约开盘涨0.41%。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度。 多位专家分析认为，12月的经济会议将赋予经济增长更大的权重，在财政政策、促消费、稳地产、"反 内卷"等方面或将做出针对性部署。预计2026年赤字率将保持在4%左右，超长期特别国债、地方政府专 项债规模或有所提升。 在财政政策上，有望更加强化对风险挑战的重视程度，赤字率有望在稳健基础上保持适度弹性。货币政 策则会更加注重"精准滴灌"与 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Policy Outlook - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Key Points and Arguments 1. **2026 Economic Stance**: The policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a small, reactive approach rather than a significant pivot. The GDP target is set at 5% to ensure a solid start for the 15th Five-Year Plan. The fiscal package is likely to remain flat compared to 2025, with a potential mid-year top-up of approximately 0.5 percentage points of GDP if necessary [4][4][4]. 2. **Policy Mix**: The tone remains supply-centric, with an emphasis on rebalancing. The strategy includes expanding domestic demand while optimizing supply, indicating a focus on better composition rather than size [4][4][4]. 3. **Missing Elements**: The meeting did not address specific actions regarding service consumption, property stabilization, or social-welfare support, which may indicate a lack of immediate plans in these areas [4][4][4]. 4. **Macro Economic Outlook**: The forecast for 2026 includes less deflation rather than reflation, with a base case of 4.8% real GDP growth and approximately 4.1% nominal GDP growth. The GDP deflator is expected to improve but remain below zero [4][4][4]. 5. **Support Tools**: Infrastructure support will be front-loaded through Local Government Special Bonds (LGSB) and policy banks. There will be guardrails for the housing market, including optional mortgage-interest subsidies if stress broadens. Support for service consumption is anticipated to be more likely in the second half of the year once regulations are established [4][4][4]. 6. **Policy Style**: The approach will involve small, reactive steps, with increased coordination language and a push against anti-involution and for market-oriented policies [4][4][4]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the continuity of existing policies and the cautious approach towards new initiatives, reflecting a careful balancing act in the current economic climate [4][4][4]. - The lack of mention of specific sectors such as services and real estate may suggest potential risks or areas of concern that investors should monitor closely [4][4][4].

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 | F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | | --- | | 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： | Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.54%报 4219.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.94%报 58.50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.72%报 953.50 元/克，沪银跌 0.69%报 13606 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 8 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.14 吨， 当前持仓量为 1049.11 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 36.67 吨，当前持仓 ...