Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth slowing down in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may occur later and be smaller than market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Rising Inflation - The impact of tariffs is not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported significantly in the first quarter to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventory levels. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will need to import again, potentially passing on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - Stricter immigration policies have led to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may drive up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [4]. - Moderate fiscal policies are expected to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [5]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the 2017 temporary personal income tax cuts permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade. This level of fiscal stimulus is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [8]. - The U.S. government debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable. The buyer structure of U.S. debt has shifted, with foreign central banks reducing their purchases, leading to increased volatility in bond yields [8]. - Long-term solutions to the debt issue may require fiscal consolidation, which could involve spending cuts, tax increases, or new tax sources. Alternatively, forced purchases of more government bonds or quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Outside the U.S., other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [9]. - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit will constrain its performance [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates could lead to rising inflation, causing foreign investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets, which may result in higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar [11]. - The possibility of appointing a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" by Trump could create additional uncertainty in monetary policy, complicating the current Fed Chair Powell's role and the FOMC's decision-making process [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties related to Trump's policies, opting to wait for clearer signals for potential rate cuts [1][3] - The Fed's description of economic uncertainty changed from "further increasing" to "somewhat decreasing but still high," indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook while remaining vigilant [1] - Economic forecasts show a downward revision in GDP, an upward revision in unemployment rate, and an upward revision in inflation, suggesting a more complex financial landscape in the second half of the year [1][5] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026, reflecting a more cautious stance on future economic trends [3] - Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks were hawkish, noting that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and he anticipates significant inflationary pressures in the coming months [3] - Following the FOMC decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose while the stock market declined, with market expectations for rate cuts in September and December contrasting with the Fed's cautious outlook [3][5] Group 3 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is considered low, with the Fed likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to persistent inflation risks and a slow rise in unemployment [5] - Factors such as tariffs affecting consumer prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may contribute to upward pressure on inflation [6] - Despite an upward trend in initial jobless claims, seasonal factors are likely influencing this increase, necessitating close monitoring of future jobless claims data [6]

Inflation Data - The U.S. June CPI year-on-year increased to 2.7%, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%, and the previous value was 2.8%[2] Economic Implications - The rise in overall inflation is attributed to increased energy prices, tariff impacts, and expectations from new fiscal legislation[2] - The core CPI's slight underperformance is influenced by weak new car sales and a cooling housing market[2] - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy is increasing due to the divergence between inflation data and weak non-farm private employment figures[2] Energy Prices - Energy prices rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, with energy goods prices changing from -2.4% to 1.0% month-on-month[2] - Energy service prices maintained a high growth rate, increasing from 0.4% to 0.9% month-on-month[2] Tariff Effects - Core goods prices increased year-on-year from 0.3% to 0.7%, with clothing being a major contributor[2] - The month-on-month change in core goods prices rose from 0.0% to 0.2%[2] Housing Market - The housing market continues to cool, with housing prices year-on-year decreasing from 3.9% to 3.8%[2] - The NAHB housing market index fell to 32, the lowest point in 2023[2] Market Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q3 have diminished, with a 53.5% probability for a rate cut in September[4] - The strong inflation data does not support a rate cut, increasing the likelihood of the Fed having to choose between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation[2]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation effects of Trump's tariffs are becoming evident, with the latest data showing an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating that tariff costs are being passed from businesses to consumers, potentially leading to stagflation in the U.S. economy [1][5][9] Economic Indicators - In June, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - The "super core inflation," which excludes food, energy, and housing, increased by 0.12% month-on-month in June, significantly higher than the previous two months' increases of 0.01% and 0.07% [1][6] Tariff Impact - The tariffs introduced on April 2 have begun to affect prices, particularly in sectors like furniture and toys, which are sensitive to tariff changes [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation was initially muted due to inventory buffers, but as these buffers deplete, the inflationary effects will become more pronounced [6][9] Consumer and Business Costs - Goldman Sachs estimates that businesses will pass approximately 70% of the tariff costs onto consumers, with the remaining 30% absorbed by businesses and foreign exporters [7] - The annual inflation expectations among the public have risen to 4.9%, with long-term expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993 [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, with various institutions revising their forecasts downwards for 2025, indicating a potential growth rate of 1.3% to 1.7% [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may face constraints on its ability to lower interest rates due to rising inflation pressures, with the next potential rate cut not expected until September [9][10]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's mid-year outlook report indicates that if economists and market participants' macroeconomic predictions are accurate, gold prices may experience a sideways trend in the second half of the year, with some upward potential [1] - Historical experience shows that economic performance rarely aligns perfectly with consensus forecasts, suggesting uncertainty in future gold price movements [1] - If economic and financial conditions worsen, along with increased stagflation pressures and escalating geopolitical tensions, safe-haven demand could drive gold prices up by 10%-15% [1] - Conversely, if global conflicts are resolved broadly and sustainably, gold may retrace 12%-17% of its gains this year, although this scenario is currently considered unlikely [1] - The World Gold Council anticipates that global central bank demand for gold will remain strong in 2025, despite a potential decline from record levels, still expected to exceed the average of 500-600 tons per year prior to 2022 [1] - The report emphasizes that pressures related to the US dollar may persist, and discussions about the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative could become a focal point for investors [1] - Overall, these conditions position gold as a net beneficiary, although some positive factors are already reflected in current gold prices [1] Group 2 - In June, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2.4% increase in May and aligning with economists' expectations [2] - Typically, gold performs best in low-interest-rate environments, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds [2] - The main gold futures contract for July delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by 0.6%, settling at $3,329.80 per ounce, while the main silver futures contract dropped by 1.6%, closing at $37.834 per ounce [2]

面对下跌，普通投资者现在该怎么做？是止损，持有，还是买入？金国强建议：降低杠杆、逢低布局 （而非追高或恐慌割肉），利用期权保护，现货选ETF，以定投思维持有。 避险退潮与降息预期推迟 金国强指出，本轮金价下跌受两大核心因素驱动。一是避险情绪消退，加沙、俄乌等热点地区局势降 温，市场风险偏好回升。中美日内瓦谈判达成阶段性共识，特朗普政府对等关税政策引发的避险情绪退 潮。二是美联储降息预期弱化，美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期，失业率降至4.1%，通胀数据稳 定，导致7月降息概率跌破10%，延迟至9月后。 期货市场上，主力合约多空双方力量对比发生了哪些关键转折？这些变化是不是揭示了市场情绪的转 变？金国强认为，从期货市场信号来看，机构高位减持，牛市进入"鱼尾阶段"。 资金动向揭示了市场情绪转变。金国强表示，国内外机构同步高位减持。国内期货市场，主力多头持仓 从峰值3万手减至1.3万手，净持仓占比从40%降至33%；海外市场，COMEX黄金管理基金净多持仓占 比从29%降至13%（4月前），5月后反弹至20%，但总持仓量持续萎缩。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 期货市场常被视为 ...

随着通胀温和、失业率稳定以及美股重回历史高点，特朗普似乎毫无理由收敛其全球对等关税野心。但 8月1日即将生效的30%对欧关税，或将首次给美国消费者和企业带来经济学家长期担忧的毁灭性打击。 "关税税率越高，滞胀风险就越大，"联博经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德（Eric Winograd）指出。作为彼 此最大贸易伙伴，美欧供应链一旦断裂，破坏力将远超此前任何一轮关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩警 告，新关税将"破坏跨大西洋关键供应链，损害双方企业、消费者和患者的利益"。 尽管企业通过提前囤货暂时缓解了冲击，但库存耗尽后终将面临抉择——是将成本转嫁给愈发谨慎的消 费者，还是通过裁员来维持利润？ 白宫经济顾问哈塞特却坚称"数据未见负面影响"，并援引内部研究称进口商品价格自2月以来持续下 降。这种"数据爱国主义"论调遭专家质疑——毕竟最具杀伤力的关税尚未落地。 TS Lombard首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨（Steven Blitz）指出："这本质是企业利润税，最终总要有人买 单。"在某个时候，企业将耗尽其现有库存，这意味着它们将不得不以更高的价格进口新的供应。 更棘手的是，美联储正陷入通胀与增长的双重困局。尽管市场预期9月可 ...

7月15日亚盘早市，现货黄金价格报3347.92美元/盎司，较昨日高点3374.78美元回落近30美元，跌幅0.89%。美元指数升至98.05，创下近期新高，10年期美 债收益率攀升至4.236%，触及四周高位。 | 报价 资讯 相关品种 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 3342.53 | 最高 | 3352. | | 开盘 | 3344.23 | 最低 | 3341.2 | 今日市场焦点将集中于美国6月CPI数据，市场普遍预期总体CPI同比涨幅将从5月的2.4%升至2.6%，核心CPI同比涨幅或达2.9%，高于前值2.8%。这一数据将 直接影响美联储政策预期，进而决定黄金短期走势方向。 | 日历 | GMT | 参考日期 | 现值 | 前次数据 | 市场预期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-13 | 12:30 PM | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | | 2025-06-11 | 12:30 PM | Mav | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | | 202 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last Friday (July 11), London spot gold closed at $3354.75 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $17.81 per ounce, representing a rise of 0.53% [1] - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with 6 members holding a neutral stance and 2 adopting a hawkish position [3] - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, claiming it is at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 was reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000 [2] - U.S. consumer credit for May showed a change of $51.02 billion, significantly lower than the expected $105 billion [2] - Wholesale inventories in the U.S. for May remained unchanged at -0.3%, matching expectations [2] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment on gold prices is increasingly divided, with ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. tariffs, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [8] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to the initiation of a Fed rate cut cycle, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [8] - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions are closely monitoring the economic outlook and inflation for the second half of the year, with a focus on upcoming earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup [2]. Group 1: Earnings and Market Performance - The second quarter earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is projected at 4.8%, marking the lowest since Q4 2023, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate performance [2]. - Major banks are expected to report better-than-expected profit growth driven by active trading and a mild rebound in investment banking, with an increase in IPOs and mergers since April [3]. - Analysts predict that trading revenues will rise by 5%-10% in Q2, with strong expectations for investment banking revenues as market conditions improve [3]. Group 2: Interest Income and Credit Quality - Net interest income (NII) growth is anticipated to be around 5%, supported by resilient financial conditions among consumers and businesses, despite a softening in loan demand [3]. - Credit quality remains strong for both consumer and commercial borrowers, with limited provisions for potential bad loans expected [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Capital Deployment - Recent stress tests indicate that large financial institutions are well-capitalized to withstand adverse conditions, leading to increased dividends and stock buyback plans [4]. - The regulatory environment is expected to become more favorable, with the appointment of Michelle Bowman as the Fed's vice chair for supervision signaling a shift towards less stringent regulations [4]. Group 4: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - Potential headwinds for financial institutions include economic slowdown pressures, inflation concerns related to tariffs, and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Despite some recovery in the IPO and M&A markets, activity remains below peak levels from previous years [5]. - The stability of corporate credit spreads and the potential for rising long-term interest rates could benefit net interest income, enhancing profitability for banks [5]. Group 5: Insights from Earnings Calls - Earnings calls from major banks will provide critical insights into economic outlooks, particularly regarding net interest income and the impact of tariffs and fiscal concerns on long-term rates [6]. - Consumer confidence has shown signs of improvement, with high-end consumers continuing to spend, although rising long-term rates could pose challenges [6].