Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is influenced by multiple core variables including Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics [2] - The US dollar index experienced a rebound, closing at 97.83, marking a 0.9% increase, the first weekly gain in three weeks [3] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold closing at $3,355.12 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar strengthened due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates, while the British pound faced pressure, recording six consecutive declines [5] - The euro was under pressure following dovish comments from European Central Bank officials, while the US dollar against the Japanese yen saw fluctuations, ultimately rising nearly 2% for the week [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and expectations that OPEC+ may pause production increases in October [6] - Despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to external factors [6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced high volatility, with technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs [7] - However, all three major indices closed lower for the week, reflecting a rebalancing pressure due to high valuations [7] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching $117,789 per coin, driven by institutional interest [8] - However, the influx of leveraged funds raised concerns about market volatility, with $541 million in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, key economic data releases, and potential adjustments in Trump's policies in the coming week [9] - The US dollar's performance is likely to continue influencing non-US asset prices, with gold and silver expected to maintain strength, while oil price volatility may increase [9]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. economic data indicates that tariff policies are beginning to show signs of inflation in prices, marking the first time such signals have been captured in official data [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed an annual increase from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June, leading to a brief sell-off in the bond market [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June reported zero growth, stabilizing the market after the CPI report [1][2] Group 2 - Core consumer prices, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June, the largest monthly increase since 2022, with notable increases in home goods and appliances [2] - PIMCO suggests that the CPI data may support the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating room for potential rate cuts in September and beyond [2] - The PCE price index is expected to reach 2.8% in June and potentially 3% in July, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] Group 3 - Current bond market sentiment views the inflation caused by tariffs as a "temporary adjustment" that will be absorbed in a few months, with prices expected to stabilize near the Fed's target [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.45%, which is considered attractive for investors [3][4] - Despite recent tariff-related news, the U.S. Treasury market has remained stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating within a narrow range of 15 basis points [3]

美联储前理事沃什：我们最不需要的就是美联储的一切照旧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

北京时间16日晚11点左右，主流美媒开始报道有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的消息。 16日晚12点左右，特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔和解雇信的存在，并称他在此事上比共和党人更保守。特 朗普表示，大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非证明其在大楼翻新事件中存在欺诈行为。 评论称，美国6月生产者价格指数持平，缓解了昨日消费者价格指数报告给美联储带来的部分鹰派压 力，美元因此走势震荡。预测人士会结合这两项通胀指标，来估算美联储青睐的个人消费支出物价指数 ——该数据将于本月晚些时候公布。目前只有少量初步迹象显示关税正对部分商品价格构成压力，而上 述数据则暗示PCE可能走软。不确定性或许会让美联储维持当前政策的时间更长，这有可能对美元形成 支撑。 美联储威廉慕斯表示，今年美国经济预计将增长约1%，失业率预计到年底升至4.5%。6月份整体通胀率 可能为2.5%，核心通胀率可能为2.75%。经济面临更多不确定性。关税可能会推动进一步的通胀。目前 经济状况良好，劳动力市场稳健。关税对经济影响尚处"初期阶段"，关税措施应在2025年剩余时间及 2026年期间推动通胀率上升一个百分点。今年通胀率将维持在3%至3.5%之间。就业增长和劳动力供应 都在放缓 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：需看到更多数据，才能决定政策下一步。 ...

近期波动原因 来源：赛博AI实验室 截至2025年7月16日，金价呈现震荡下行趋势，市场多空因素交织。以下是综合分析及关键要点： 一、当前金价动态 国际与国内价格 国际金价：现货黄金报3325.56美元/盎司（同比下跌0.54%），纽约期金收于3336.7美元/盎司，周内跌 幅扩大至0.67%。 国内金价：上海黄金T+D报772.27元/克，深圳水贝批发价约756元/克，品牌金店（如周大福、六福）足 金首饰价仍处高位（1007-1008元/克）。 利空因素： 美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，强化美联储推迟降息预期，美元走强压制金价。 地缘风险短期缓和（中东停火、欧盟推迟对美关税报复），削弱避险需求。 技术性抛压加剧，3340美元关键支撑位失守后触发连锁抛售。 支撑因素： 央行购金潮延续（中国连续8个月增持，全球央行Q1购金量同比增34%）。 黄金科技需求增长（脑机接口、纳米芯片导线应用）。 二、市场行为与消费心理 "买涨不买跌"现象凸显 深圳水贝商家反馈：金价下跌后销售额反比上涨时减少30%-40%，消费者观望情绪浓厚，期待"抄底 价"（如600元/克）。促销措施（如降工费3-5元/克）效果有限。 婚庆刚需群 ...