齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 崔可腾 实习生 赵钰灿 金价又双叒叕创新高了！ 相关消息一出，迅速被推上热搜。 社交媒体上，网友们也对国际贵金属的快速上涨直呼"离谱"。 金价大幅度跳动的原因找到了！ 美国经济数据疲软强化降息预期，上周五公布的美国非农就业报告显示，12月新增就业仅5万人，低于市场预期的6万人。 这一数据强化了市场对美联储将继续降息的预期。美联储的降息预期则使得不产生利息的黄金资产吸引力相对上升。 俄乌冲突、美委及伊朗局势等地缘政治风险，进一步加剧了市场避险情绪，为火热的金市"添柴加薪"。 同时，美联储主席鲍威尔近期面临司法威胁，导致美元在亚洲交易时段小幅走低，进一步提振了以美元计价的黄金价格。 1月12日亚洲时间早盘，贵金属价格狂飙。截至早上9点10分发稿时，现货黄金盘中一度突破4600美元/盎司，创出历史新高，现货白银更是涨近5%，站上 84美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高。 "白银没有全球央行储备带来的需求端支撑，所以价格会对市场资金的流动更加敏感。我们预测的是白银价格会继续走高，但波动性和不确定性显著高于 黄金"。 高盛集团大宗商品研究全球联席主管 丹·斯图伊文指出，相较黄金，预计白银交易将持续面临 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions and increased market volatility, leading to a heightened demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 11, gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange reached a new high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, marking a more than 2% increase for the day and a total increase of $280 in January [4] - Silver futures experienced significant volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8% and a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, followed by a drop of over 7% [7] - As of the latest reports, silver opened with an 11% surge, reaching $83.33 per ounce, breaking previous two-week highs [16] Group 2: Market Influences - The geopolitical unrest following the U.S. raid in Venezuela has escalated market risk aversion, contributing to a 3.96% increase in gold and an 11.72% increase in silver futures prices this week [5] - The debt expansion in developed economies is prompting investors to increase their allocation to precious metals [5] Group 3: Price Adjustments in Jewelry - Influenced by the rise in international gold prices, several jewelry brands have adjusted their gold jewelry prices, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at ¥1,429 per gram, an increase of ¥19, and Chow Tai Fook's at ¥1,426 per gram, up by ¥20 [12]

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 周报 贵金属期货：地缘扰动增加利多因素 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 1.期货市场回顾 图 1： 黄金期货内外盘价格 元/克 美元/金衡盎司 图 2：白银期货内外盘价格 元/千克 美元/金衡盎司 报告导读： 关注因素：1.中东地区地缘风险演化 2.美联储高层更迭 3.美国经济数据 市场回顾与展望：美国"闪击"委内瑞拉，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗最早可能于1月5日在纽约曼哈顿的联 邦法院出庭受审。美国总统特朗普称，已取消此前预计的对委内瑞拉第二波军事打击。但出于安全保障目 的，所有美国舰船都维持原地部署。约旦军方消息称，当地时间1月10日晚，约旦武装部队通过皇家空军 对极端组织"伊斯兰国"在叙利亚境内的多个目标实施精准空袭。约旦方面表示，此次行动是在国际联盟 框架下，同有关伙伴协调进行的，叙利亚方面也参与其中。地缘扰动再度起波澜，避险因素使得贵金属做 多热情再度增加，但是行情震荡回调不是很充分，贵金属短期上方空间有多少，无法估计，谨慎追多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月12日16时47分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨2.57%，沪银主力收涨14.42%，铂金主力收涨4.65%，钯金主力收涨涨3.59%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美联储主席 鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查这一"黑天鹅"事件，直接动摇了货币政策独立性与美元信用基石，导致长期通胀预期脱锚。特 朗普政府正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国 12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速， 低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已 处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 ...

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷新 历史高点。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合 约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄加奇也分析，本次行情上涨的驱动力主要来自两方面。一方面，特朗普就降息 力度问题再度向美联储现任主席鲍威尔施压，且财长贝森特预计，特朗普将在1月19日—23日举行的达沃 斯论坛前后就下任美联储主席人选做出决定，此外12月非农数据不及预期，交易者对后续降息路径偏鸽 定价。 另一方面，地缘碎片化影响持续发酵，伊朗近期因物价上涨，社会不稳定因素上升，美国考虑干涉伊朗 方案，而同时美国与丹麦、委内瑞拉之间就关键资源和领土问题存有争端，特朗普对国际法的表态也使 得地缘局势前景不确定性上升，市场避险需求支撑贵金属溢价。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短期需要关注彭博大宗商品指数再平衡对贵金属的权重削减和芝商所上调黄金、白银保证金比例可能造 成的利空影响。但长期来看，美联储降息周期尚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continued to be strong during intraday trading. The prices of London silver and the main contract of Shanghai silver reached record highs. Driven by the shortage of physical inventory, the silver market continued to rise. The haze gradually dissipated, the US consumer confidence rebounded steadily, and the strong resilience of the employment market weakened the interest - rate cut expectation slightly. However, the market generally expected a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut within the year. In the future, due to the recent geopolitical turmoil, the safe - haven demand for precious metals increased, and the price center was expected to remain high. The shortage of physical silver inventory was difficult to ease quickly, significantly amplifying price elasticity. In the short term, it was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk driven by concentrated long - position liquidation. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan strengthened the narrative of loose liquidity. Against the background of loose liquidity and stable interest - rate cut expectations, the medium - term bullish logic for precious metals had not changed significantly. In the medium and long term, the strategy of bargain - hunting should be adopted, while paying attention to short - term callback risks. Key attention should be paid to this week's US CPI inflation indicator [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was 1026.280 yuan/gram, up 19.8 yuan; the main Shanghai silver futures contract was 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 2214.00 yuan. - The main contract's open interest for Shanghai gold was 116,448.00 lots, down 2838.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,474.00 lots, up 6.00 lots. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai gold contract was 238,101.00 lots, up 76913.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,207,190.00 lots, down 65969.00 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai gold was 97653 kilograms, unchanged; for Shanghai silver, it was 649,643 kilograms, up 29381 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1023.71 yuan/gram, up 20.22 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,432.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2081.00 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was - 2.57 yuan/gram, up 0.42 yuan; for Shanghai silver, it was - 513.00 yuan/kilogram, down 133.00 yuan. - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1067.13 tons, up 2.00 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,118.16 tons, down 235.44 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial net long position of gold in the CFTC was 227632.00 contracts, down 3541.00 contracts; for silver, it was 30,063.00 contracts, down 5821.00 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. - The US dollar index was 0.00, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 0.00, down 0.02 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 14.49, down 0.96; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.00, down 0.64. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.55, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 57.51, down 1.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November 2025, global central banks net - purchased 45 tons of gold, a slight decline from the previous month but still at a high level. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of November, the cumulative net gold purchases reported by global central banks reached 297 tons. - On January 9, 2026, the US Supreme Court did not make a ruling on the tariffs imposed by President Trump. January 14 would be the next day for it to announce a decision. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that if the Supreme Court overturned the global tariffs, the government was ready to use other powers to quickly re - impose them. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January was 54, reaching a four - month high, with the expected value rising to 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectation for the next year was 4.2%, the same as the previous month. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 4.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95.6%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 27.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 71.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 1.1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December PPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month (%) - On January 15 at 01:00, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate - On January 15 at 20:30, the European Central Bank to release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to significant fluctuations in precious metal prices and rising uncertainties [1] - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, with London gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and London silver touching $84.606 per ounce [1] - The A-share precious metals sector has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] Market Risk Control - The exchange urges member units to closely monitor market changes and enhance risk emergency plans to maintain market stability [1] - Investors are advised to implement risk prevention measures and manage their positions rationally [1] Precious Metals Performance - As of the report, Mingpai Jewelry's stock rose over 10%, Shengda Resources increased by more than 8%, and several other companies, including China Silver Group and Hunan Silver, saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Other notable companies such as Chow Tai Fook, China Gold International, and Chow Sang Sang also experienced stock price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to threats of criminal prosecution from the U.S. Department of Justice, alongside rising demand for safe-haven assets driven by protests in Iran, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the potential prosecution should be viewed in the context of ongoing government pressure to influence interest rate decisions [1][4]. - Following Powell's comments, gold prices surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, while silver approached $85 per ounce [1][4]. - The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly [1][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Precious Metals - Protests in Iran have led to speculation about a potential regime change, increasing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven investments [1][5]. - Multiple favorable factors, including declining U.S. interest rates, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a decrease in trust in the dollar, have supported gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Fund managers expressed confidence in the long-term attractiveness of precious metals, opting not to significantly reduce their gold positions [1][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged nearly 6%, reaching a historical high of $84.6090 per ounce, with a 150% increase over the past year [2][6]. - The silver market is expected to face supply shortages through 2026, driven by strong investment demand and rising industrial needs [2][6]. - Concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting silver, platinum, and palladium are anticipated, with a report expected in January [2][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Recent U.S. employment data did not alter market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports non-yielding precious metals [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times in the latter half of the previous year, with the market pricing in at least two more cuts this year [3][6]. - Analysts noted that weak labor market data reinforces expectations for an earlier and more aggressive shift to rate cuts, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7].

每经编辑｜陈柯名 潘海福 | | | 受国际金价带动，国内黄金饰品价格也普遍上涨，多个品牌足金报价突破1400元/克。其中，周生生、老庙报价1429元/克，周大福、周大生报价1426元/ 克，六福珠宝报价1424元/克，较昨日普遍上涨了20元/克。 | 实物黄金 单位元/克 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 間大福 | 周六格 間六福 | 間生生 周生生 | | 1426.00 | 1411.00 | 1429.00 | | 金条价格 1251.00 | 金条价格 1306.00 | 金条价格 1254.00 | | 周大芝 間大生 | (ml 潮宗基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1426.00 | 1426.00 | 1424.00 | | 铂金价格 933.00 | 铂金价格 933.00 | 金条价格 1249.00 | | 一家花 | 我用直令 | 中国商会 | | 1428.00 | 1429.00 | 1023.60 | | 足金价格 1428.00 | 金条价格 1384.00 | 零售价 1039.60 | 此外，伦敦现货白银站上84美元/盎司，涨幅超5.5%，突破两周前高点， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - If the impact of news weakens, gold can maintain a bullish operation above $4300, and selling put options can earn time value. Also, pay attention to the rebound of the gold - silver ratio [1] - In the short term, beware of the callback caused by the possible passive reduction of positions due to the re - balancing of the global commodity index. In a high - volatility market, it is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70. If the volatility falls, sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - For platinum and palladium, the risk of unilateral trading is relatively high even when the external market shows a strong trend. It is recommended to buy lightly at low levels near the 20 - day moving average. If rhodium is relatively strong, you can try to short the platinum - palladium ratio [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1006.48 yuan/gram on January 9, up 0.86% from January 8 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 18731 yuan/kilogram on January 9, up 1.52% from January 8 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 527.25 yuan/gram on January 9, down 10.61% from January 8 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 425.20, down 4.97% from January 8 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4518.40 on January 9, up 0.68% from January 8 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 79.79 on January 9, up 4.04% from January 8 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2277.80 dollars/ounce on January 9, down 0.21% from January 8 [1] - NYMEX rhodium主力 contract closed at 1874.00 on January 9, up 2.21% from January 8 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4509.02 on January 9, up 0.70% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 79.90 dollars/ounce on January 9, up 3.81% from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2282.00 on January 9, up 2.93% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1833.00 on January 9, up 6.63% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1002.92 yuan/gram on January 9, up 0.71% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18759 yuan/ten grams on January 9, up 2.30% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange rhodium 9995 was at 593 yuan/gram on January 9, up 2.26% from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.56, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 58, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.38, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 77.40% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was 0.11, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 86.70% [1] Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 56.63, down 3.23% from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 53.73, down 0.66% from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.22, down 2.37% from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.24, down 5.94% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 0.2% from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.54%, up 1.4% from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90%, down 1.0% from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 99.14, up 0.28% from the previous value [1] - On - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9760, down 0.09% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 97653, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 620262 ten - grams, down 2.73% from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36311918, down 0.21% from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 439740503, down 0.62% from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19281342, down 0.33% from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 125443999, down 1.37% from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1065, down 0.24% from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16308, up 0.57% from the previous value [1]