Core Insights - Ningbo's real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with April data showing a 72.8% month-on-month drop and a 47% year-on-year decrease in new residential transactions [1] - The second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with 4,038 units sold in April, which is nearly six times the volume of new homes sold [1] - The majority of second-hand homes sold are priced between 1 million to 2 million, indicating a focus on affordable housing for first-time buyers [1][3] Sales Data Analysis - In April, the average price per square meter for homes generally ranged from 10,000 to 20,000, with properties exceeding 30,000 being rare [3] - The total number of second-hand homes listed for sale in the six districts was over 94,000, suggesting a competitive market where properties must meet current demand to sell [5] - The key selling factors for second-hand homes are competitive pricing and suitable layouts that cater to first-time buyers' needs [6] Market Trends - The market is shifting towards a focus on the essence of housing, emphasizing the importance of property services, community amenities, and overall living quality [9] - There remains a segment of buyers looking for improved or investment properties, although they are struggling to find suitable options [8]

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In April 2025, the residential market did not maintain the momentum from March, with a total sales area of 996.3 million square meters, representing a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3] - Despite the overall market cooling, cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou still experienced "daylight sales," indicating structural heat in the market, particularly in high-demand areas [5] - The average land transaction price in key cities remains high, with significant premium rates observed, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities [7] Group 2: Policy and Government Actions - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on urban renewal actions and increasing the supply of high-quality housing [1] - Future policies may include expanding demand by lifting purchase restrictions, promoting housing delivery, and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and land [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Poly Developments achieved significant success in April, securing two high-value land parcels in Hangzhou and Xiamen, with floor prices of 52,000 yuan and 51,000 yuan per square meter, respectively, marking the highest prices for the month [1][9] - Sunac China's overseas debt restructuring has made substantial progress, with a total of approximately 95.5 billion USD involved, potentially allowing the company to convert debt into equity [15] Group 4: Investment and Financing - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 116.53 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [8] - The average financing cost for domestic bonds issued by real estate companies in April was 2.7%, a slight decrease from March [15]

022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/05/14） 编辑人 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.14） 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 行业研究 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报综述 贸易会谈传利好，宏观情绪逐渐缓和——金属行业周报 中美关税风险阶段性缓和，维持家居业绩改善预期——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（5 月 5 日至 5 月 11 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为 0 BP 至 8 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，其中，企业债零发行，其余品种发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比增加， 企业债净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，公司债、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a long-term adjustment, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging home purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index in 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of overall price decline [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - Local governments, except for core areas in first-tier cities, have largely relaxed purchase restrictions and increased the upper limit for housing provident fund loans [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to below 3% and lowered down payment ratios to 1.5% [3]. - Tax authorities have provided exemptions on deed tax and value-added tax for homebuyers [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jack Ma emphasizes that housing should be for living, not speculation, suggesting that it may be a good time for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [3][5]. - Li Ka-shing notes that the market is returning to rationality, and decisions should be based on personal financial situations and family needs when prices reach reasonable levels [5]. Group 4: Buyer Recommendations - For first-time and upgrading homebuyers, 2025 is seen as a favorable time to purchase due to a significant average price drop of 30% since 2022 and ongoing supportive policies [6]. - Speculative buyers are advised to "continue to observe" as there remains considerable market bubble, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where price-to-income ratios exceed 40 [7][8]. - Many industry insiders believe that while core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases, third and fourth-tier cities have already experienced significant declines, suggesting a more stable environment for potential buyers in those areas [8].

Q&A 房地产行业 24 年报及 1Q25 财报综述 20250513 摘要 • 2024 年房地产企业首次出现净利润亏损，主要原因是房价承压导致存货 减值计提创新高，重点房企合计计提 645 亿元，行业下行导致联合营企业 投资收益大幅缩减，以及少数股东对利润的持续吞噬。 • 重点房企平均毛利率从 2019 年开始持续下滑，到 2024 年的 13.8%，2025 年一季度毛利率有见底企稳迹象。2024 年重点房企净利 率显著下滑，并首次转负，同比下降 7.3 个百分点至-6.2%。 • 房地产企业销售回款持续走低，全国商品房销售金额同比下滑 17%，TOP100 房企销售额下滑 31%。样本中表内回款同比减少 28%， 表外回款同比减少 26%。净负债率继续上升 11.4 个百分点，在手现金同 比减少 11 个百分点。 • 2024 年房地产企业的存货周转率维持在较高水平，主要源自房企加快拿 地、销售、竣工和交付的流程，以及房企拿地大幅放缓，存货进入收缩阶 段。 • 2025 年一季度房地产市场表现显示出一定积极迹象，预计 5 月同环比均 为正增长，今年二三季度基数低，加之近期降准降息措施及时，有望维持 一 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 降息略早于预期，有助于预期稳定 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 看好（维持） | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | | | | 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | Q2 房地产市场回落，观察未来是否有超预 | 2025-04-15 | | 期政策出台 | | | 一季度百强房企销售额环比-41%，同比-7% | 2025-04-08 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 第 19 周房地产板 ...

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is expected to experience a significant recovery this spring, driven by increased buyer confidence following interest rate cuts earlier this year [1] - Despite a cautious market attitude influenced by the federal election and long weekends in April, demand remains strong, pushing the median house price to a record high of AUD 825,349, with a 0.3% increase in April [1] - The upcoming interest rate cuts and the resolution of election uncertainties are likely to accelerate market activity, although supply may not meet demand as winter approaches [1] Group 1 - The number of auctions and listings in April fell to the lowest level since 2019, indicating a slowdown in market activity [1] - Selective sellers are expected to wait for sustained price increases before listing their properties, leading to sporadic listings primarily from those who must sell [3] - Buyers are encouraged to focus on market signals during winter, as different regions and property types may exhibit varying dynamics [4] Group 2 - Key signals to monitor include listing times, comparable sales, and industry commentary, which can provide insights into local market trends [4] - Observing these winter indicators is crucial, as competition may intensify quickly, leading to rapid price increases [5] - Buyers should prepare by securing financing and establishing relationships with real estate agents to capitalize on market opportunities [7] Group 3 - An increase in open house attendance indicates rising buyer competition, while clearance rates can signal growing demand even in low transaction volume periods [8]

关税如何影响行业配置？20250512 摘要 • 中美贸易谈判取得进展，但即使关税降至 54%-74%，仍高于历史水平， 将持续影响企业利润、实体经济和外需，并可能推高美国通胀。市场短期 情绪提振，但需关注实际需求和通胀影响。 • 美联储面临经济增长放缓和通胀压力的两难境地，可能采取降息、降准等 措施，但市场反应不振，投资者对其效果存疑。美联储政策需关注全球经 济环境及其他央行政策动向。 • 亚洲货币汇率近期波动与金管局干预、全球贸易环境变化和美元资产安全 性有关。台湾寿险公司在汇兑和风险敞口方面存在风险，美元资产未能起 到良好保护作用，加剧了市场波动。 • 房地产市场在 2024 年二季度开始修复，但近期出现疲弱迹象。在对等关 税背景下，需重新评估房地产行业。预计房地产市场将继续经历调整，但 总体趋势有望保持稳定。 • 4 月份数据显示，对美国出口下滑，对东南亚出口增加，可能涉及转口贸 易。未来需关注新兴市场是否会受到更多限制，以及转口贸易是否会遇到 阻碍。 Q&A 关税谈判的进展如何，未来可能会对市场和行业产生哪些影响？ 美联储政策目前面临明显的两难境地。一方面需要应对经济增长放缓的问题， 另一方面又要控 ...

以下文章来源于基本面力场 ，作者基本面力场 基本面力场 . 介绍基本面发生重大变化的股票信息 作 者 | 基本面力场 来源 | 基本面力场 导语 ：为补偿去年高价购房的老业主，开发商此次提供了两种补偿方案，其中一个是"补差 价"，按照不同户型给予80万到100万元价格不等的补贴。 不管房企在盈利端怎样表现，但市场条件摆在那里，降价促销也不是什么新鲜事。比如同在朝阳区 的中建璞园项目，也在五一期间推出了特价房源，代表是93平米的三居室房源在优惠后价格，也是 较原价便宜100万元左右。 笔者觉得，尽管当前房地产止跌回稳的趋势已经很明显了，恰如中金公司（601995.SH）此前在研 报中申明的"市场量价下行最快的时期可能已经过去"，也如高盛所评价的"中国房地产企稳反弹的大 住在北京东边的小伙伴，大多对御翠园这个楼盘项目不会陌生，这是位于北京朝阳区东四环的一个 名盘。 之所以挺出名，一方面这是李嘉诚旗下企业长实开发的高端住宅项目，可谓出身华贵，更重要的一 方面，这个楼盘更以开发缓慢"享誉"业界，长达二十余年的开发周期堪称冠绝业内，当然也不乏有 违规捂地的质疑声。 引起笔者关注的是财联社的一篇报道，御翠园项目降价促销， ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 房地产行业第 19 周周报（2025 年 5 月 6 日-2025 年 5 月 9 日） 本周新房、二手房成交面积同环比均走弱；降准降息落 地，地产相关融资支持力度有望加大 新房成交面积同环比增速均由正转负。二手房成交面积环比降幅收窄，同比增速由正转负。 新房库存面积与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 ◼ 5 月 7 日国新办举办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况发布会。主要包括：1） 降准 0.5pct，提供长期流动性 1 万亿。2）下调政策利率 0.1pct。预计 5 月 5 年期以上 LPR 有望同步下调 10 个基点，或从 3.6%降至 3.5%，将进一步降低购房者置业成本。3）下调 结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25pct，其中就包括 3000 亿元的保障性住房再贷款，利率将从 1.75%下调至 1.5%，我们认为，这将激励引导金融机构支持收购已建成未出售商品房用作 保障房，以加快行业库存去化；还包括抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率从目前的 2.25%降至 2%， 也有利于为市场释放更多低成本资金，提升政策性银行对市场的支持 ...