文/ 商务部部长 王文涛 1 2月8日，商务部部长王文涛在《人民日报》发布《扩大高水平对外开放 （学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》文章表示，党的二十届四中全会 通 过 的 《 中 共 中 央 关 于 制 定 国 民 经 济 和 社 会 发 展 第 十 五 个 五 年 规 划 的 建 议》（以下简称《建议》），强调"扩大高水平对外开放，开创合作共赢 新局面"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央着眼以中国式现代化全面推 进 强 国 建 设 、 民 族 复 兴 伟 业 ， 统 筹 国 内 国 际 两 个 大 局 作 出 的 重 大 战 略 部 署，为"十五五"时期扩大高水平对外开放提供了根本遵循和行动指南。文 章提到，有序推进人民币国际化，提升资本项目开放水平，建设自主可控 的人民币跨境支付体系。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》），强调"扩大高水平对 外开放，开创合作共赢新局面"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央着眼以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，统筹国内国际两 个大局作出的重大战略部署，为"十五五"时期扩大高水平对外开放提供了根本遵 ...

党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下 简称《建议》），强调"扩大高水平对外开放，开创合作共赢新局面"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中 央着眼以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，统筹国内国际两个大局作出的重大战略部 署，为"十五五"时期扩大高水平对外开放提供了根本遵循和行动指南。 一、深刻认识扩大高水平对外开放的重大意义 "十四五"时期，在党中央坚强领导下，我们实行更加积极主动的开放战略，推动对外开放事业取得历史 性成就，为中国式现代化提供了更坚实的战略支撑。贸易强国建设取得积极成效，货物贸易规模连续八 年世界第一，服务贸易稳居世界前列，数字贸易快速发展；利用外资结构不断优化，"投资中国"金字招 牌持续擦亮；对外投资稳居世界前三，产业链供应链国际合作有序推进；多双边和区域经贸合作成果丰 硕。实践充分证明，中国越发展就越开放，开放是国家繁荣发展的必由之路。"十五五"时期是基本实现 社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，扩大高水平对外开放具有重大意义。 （一）扩大高水平对外开放，是全面推动高质量发展的强大动力。习近平总书记指出："过去四十年中 国经 ...

国家外汇管理局12月7日发布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，中国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月 末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。11月末，中国黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为中国央 行连续第13个月增持黄金。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数 下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上 升。 数据显示，中国外汇储备规模创2015年12月以来新高，较上年末增加1440亿美元，连续4个月保持在3.3 万亿美元之上。 "11月外汇储备规模延续此前3个月升势，反映了主要经济体货币政策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响 下，汇率折算和资产价格变化带来的正估值效应。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 国家外汇管理局表示，中国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供 支撑。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析，中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，是外汇储备规模保持基 本稳定的根本支撑。另外，在投资领域，中国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，近日中国证监会印发《合格 境外投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will issue the sixth tranche of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on December 10, with a scale of 7 billion yuan, completing the plan to issue 68 billion yuan in RMB bonds in Hong Kong for the year. This marks the 17th consecutive year since 2009 that the Ministry has regularly issued sovereign bonds abroad [1][2]. Group 1 - The continuous issuance of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong enhances the offshore RMB yield curve, providing a pricing "cornerstone" for the market. The bonds, backed by national sovereign credit, are considered high-quality assets and stable investment tools. The issuance has diversified in terms of maturity, ranging from 2 years to 30 years, allowing for accurate reflection of offshore market supply and demand, thus serving as a core "benchmark anchor" for pricing other offshore RMB bonds [3][5]. - The issuance of high-credit government bonds supports the global reserve and allocation value of RMB assets, effectively promoting the internationalization of the RMB. The bonds issued in Hong Kong efficiently reach international investors, meeting their demand for RMB asset allocation. For instance, the average subscription multiple for the first five issuances this year was 3.27 times, with a peak of 3.96 times, indicating strong market interest and confidence in RMB assets [4][5]. - The regular issuance of RMB government bonds strengthens Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and supports the development of the real economy. This issuance promotes the improvement of the infrastructure for bond issuance, trading, settlement, and custody in Hong Kong, enhancing its international competitiveness. Additionally, funds raised from these bonds can support major national projects, contributing to the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [5].

Core Viewpoint - The latest foreign exchange reserve data indicates a slight increase in China's foreign reserves, with a notable rise in gold reserves, reflecting ongoing economic stability and strategic asset management by the People's Bank of China [1][3][5]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1][3]. - The rise in reserves is attributed to various factors, including macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3][4]. - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant year-to-date increase of $144 billion, primarily driven by the depreciation of the US dollar and lower US Treasury yields [4]. Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7,412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth, although the increase was modest [1][5]. - The People's Bank of China has been gradually increasing its gold reserves, with the latest increment being the lowest since the resumption of purchases in November 2024, reflecting a strategic response to global economic conditions [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical risks and the anticipated easing of US monetary policy are driving the need for continued gold accumulation to optimize the international reserve structure [6][7].

Group 1 - China's economy is showing resilience and vitality as it approaches the end of 2025, with a focus on navigating challenges and opportunities in 2026 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Experts believe that China is at a critical stage of structural adjustment, where breaking through reforms will lead to both quantitative and qualitative economic growth [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a shift in China's economic growth from being primarily driven by investment and exports to being driven by innovation and consumption [3] Group 2 - Consumption is crucial for China's economy, and there is a need to actively implement a "strong consumption country" strategy [3] - Increasing the pension levels for low-income groups is seen as a key breakthrough for expanding consumption, with a strong necessity for transferring state-owned capital to support pension funds [3] - The proposal includes reallocating state-owned capital to social security funds and capital markets to create a comprehensive pension system that meets basic living needs and reduces urban-rural disparities [3] Group 3 - China has the potential to become the world's largest consumer market, surpassing the United States, and should implement a new strategy for balanced imports and exports [4] - There is a call to expand the offshore RMB financial product ecosystem to enhance the liquidity and usability of the RMB, promoting its internationalization [4] - As the RMB appreciates, domestic consumers will be able to purchase more and better imported goods and services, thereby enhancing the scale and quality of consumption [4] Group 4 - Deepening reform and opening up is seen as a crucial path for economic breakthroughs, with macro policy optimization being an important support [5] - The focus for 2026 is on establishing a solid foundation for national policies as it will be a year where major global economies compete economically [5] Group 5 - Reform and innovation are identified as fundamental drivers of China's economic development over the past 40 years and are essential for achieving the "Chinese Dream" by 2050 [6] - Addressing issues of urban-rural integration and technological innovation is deemed critical, with a need for better integration of scientific and industrial innovation [6][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on resolving challenges related to insufficient investment in basic innovation and the transformation of technological advancements [7] Group 6 - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, which is considered a significant achievement in an international context [8] - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key method for stabilizing growth, with a strong emphasis on large-scale infrastructure projects to support economic stability [8] - Consumer spending is viewed as a slow variable, indicating that a significant rebound in consumption may be challenging in the near term [8]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 全球宏观 Global Macro 2026 年宏观经济和市场展望：新一轮再定价周期 2026 Global Macro & Market Outlook: Entering a New Repricing Cycle | Shengzu Wang | 周林泓 Amber Zhou | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | Hitesh Gulati | 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang | 李加惠 , CFA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sz.wang@htisec.com | amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | hitesh.gulati@htisec.com | yx.huang@htisec.com | jh.li@htisec.com | [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for Engli ...

文 / 高歌 在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国经济从2010年一季度开始由高速逐步转向中速。截至2025年 第三季度，GDP平减指数已连续10个季度负增长。2025年前两个季度实际增长5.4%和5.2%，名义 增长为4.6%和3.9%。 长期看，根据"十五五"规划纲要提出，到2035年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。要实 现这一目标，意味着中国人均GDP将在现有基础上再迈上一个新台阶。"十四五"时期，中国人均 GDP从2020年的10632美元提升至2024年的13445美元。 短期增长压力与长期高质量发展的诉求皆 指向 中国经济增长正由供给约束转为需求约束，消费是撬 动需求变化的最大变量之一。 12月7日， 由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯 财经中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任、国务院发 展研究中心原副主任刘世锦 针对"'十五五'时期消费强国建设与相应结构性改革"这一主题给出最新 观点。 "需求不足主要不是投资和出口不足，而是消费不足，GDP可分为消费和储蓄，与低消费相对应的是 高储蓄。把高储蓄的起因说清 ...

Core Points - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from October, marking a 0.09% rise [3][17] - This is the fourth consecutive month that reserves have remained above $33 trillion, the highest level since December 2015 [4][6] - The stability in reserves is attributed to minor fluctuations in the dollar index and mixed performance in global financial assets [4][20] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is primarily due to asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations [4][20] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% in November, while non-dollar currencies showed mixed results, with the Japanese yen declining by 1.38% [5][20] - The U.S. is set to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, which is expected to stabilize China's export scale to the U.S. [5][20] Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, reaching 7,412 million ounces, with a stable increase of 3,000 ounces from the previous month [4][22] - The pace of gold accumulation has slowed down, with the total increase from January to November 2025 showing a declining trend [19][22] - The gold reserves now account for 9.28% of total foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [22][24] Market Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence the gold market in 2026 [25][26] - If economic growth slows and interest rates decline further, gold prices may experience moderate increases [26] - The importance of gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios is emphasized, especially in the context of increasing global uncertainties [26][24]

12月7日，国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模连续4个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上。同时，央行已连续13个月增持黄 金。 外储规模继续稳定在3.3万亿美元以上 数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 拉长时间来看，11月，我国外汇储备规模不仅连续四个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上，还创下2015年12月以来新高。同时，较上年末已大幅增加1440亿美 元。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资 产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 数据显示，11月末央行黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。尽管增量连续第9个月处于低位，但这是央行继去年11月重启增持后，连续第13个月增 持黄金。 | | Official reserve assets | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- ...