Group 1 - Futures are contracts that allow parties to agree on a price for a future transaction, providing certainty in volatile markets [1][4] - The modern futures market began in the mid-19th century with the establishment of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 1848, which standardized contracts and rules for trading [6][8] - Futures markets have expanded beyond agriculture to include a wide range of assets such as crude oil and cryptocurrencies, maintaining the core purpose of locking in prices [9] Group 2 - The primary purpose of futures is to manage risk through hedging, allowing parties to lock in prices and reduce potential losses from market fluctuations [10]

Report Overview - Report title: "上方压力显现 玉米重回区间运行 会议预期扰动 生猪期货近弱远强 现货涨幅有限 鸡蛋高空思路不变" [2] - Report date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun [3] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: The upward pressure on the corn futures market has emerged, and the market has returned to the range-bound operation. Traders are advised to take profits on long positions and consider short positions or stay on the sidelines [4][5]. - Hog: The short - term market sentiment is affected by the upcoming industry meeting, but the supply - demand logic will still dominate the near - month contracts. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts and focus on the change in sow inventory in the far - month contracts [9][10][11]. - Egg: The short - term increase in egg prices is limited, and the strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs [15][16][17]. Summary by Commodity Corn Important Information - On September 12, the prices at the north - south ports were stable, with the purchase price at Jinzhou Port being 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton and the transaction price at Shekou Port being 2370 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises showed mixed trends. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2205 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, while that in North China was 2374 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions organized by China Grain Reserves Network was 34%, up from 26% in the previous period [4]. - As of September 11, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong turned positive, reaching +50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - As of September 12, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4420 to 47454 [4]. - As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the grain inventory at Guangzhou Port was 1.853 million tons, up 1.70% month - on - month and 14.59% year - on - year. Corn inventory was 617,000 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month but up 64.53% year - on - year [5]. Market Logic - In the short term, the price in Northeast China has stabilized and strengthened while that in North China has weakened. The lower support for the market is the port price equivalent to the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - In the medium term, trading should focus on the drivers of the new - season corn, and a wide - range trading strategy should be adopted [5]. - In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [5]. Trading Strategy - On the night of Monday this week, it was suggested to take profits on long positions in contracts 2511 and 2601. On Tuesday morning, it was recommended to stay on the sidelines or take short positions. Currently, the view remains unchanged. The first support for contract 2511 is 2190, and the second support is 2150. The support for contract 2601 is in the range of 2150 - 2160 [5]. Hog Important Information - On September 12, the national average hog price was 13.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak and stable on the morning of September 13 [9]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows in stock was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal level. The number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms in July increased by 2.1% month - on - month [9]. - On September 12, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - On September 11, the average weekly slaughter weight of hogs was 124.32 kg, up 0.66 kg from the previous week [9]. - On September 12, the number of hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 428 [9]. - The Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation for enterprises on September 16 [9]. Market Logic - In the short term, the weak supply - demand relationship is pressuring the hog price to run weakly, and the upcoming industry meeting will affect the short - term market sentiment [10]. - In the medium term, the increase in the number of newborn piglets from February to June implies an expected increase in hog supply in the second half of the year, limiting the upside potential of the hog price [10]. - In the long term, the number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - After the impact of the meeting fades, the near - month contracts will follow the supply - demand logic. Traders should look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts should focus on the expected difference in sow culling driven by policies. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for different contracts [11]. Egg Important Information - On September 12, egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The average price in the main production areas was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.9 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin [15]. - On September 12, the inventory levels were basically stable, with the average production - link inventory being 0.91 days and the circulation - link inventory being 0.99 days [15]. - On September 12, the average price of old hens was 4.52 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of September 11, the average culling age of old hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week [15]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock was about 1.365 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in stock in September is 1.353 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [15]. Market Logic - In the medium and short term, the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the spot price to be stable and slightly strong. However, the lower - than - expected culling of hens and high cold - storage egg inventory limit the upside potential of the price [16]. - In the long term, the focus is on the extent of hen culling. If the egg - laying chicken farming profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [16]. Trading Strategy - The strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs. Specific pressure levels are provided for different contracts. In addition, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities in contracts 2607 and 2608 to lock in breeding profits [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, influenced by the expectation of major mines resuming production, with prices dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton to around 70,000 yuan/ton, a significant support level [1] - Despite the short-term bearish sentiment due to production resumption, the traditional peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to provide support for demand [1] - The futures market for lithium carbonate is characterized by advantages such as dual-direction trading, leverage effects, and price discovery, which can help participants make informed decisions based on supply and demand expectations [3] Group 2 - A nationwide futures simulation competition, "Economic Grain Cup," is being held to provide participants with a zero-cost opportunity to experience real trading in lithium carbonate and over 80 other futures products [3][8] - The competition offers various benefits, including exclusive communication groups, professional reviews, training opportunities, and chances to compete with experienced traders [3] - A live broadcast titled "Commodity Market Trends Ahead of the Federal Reserve Decision" is scheduled for September 15, aimed at helping participants understand the linkage between macro events and futures market trends [4][6]

Core Points - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the launch of international copper trading on its comprehensive business platform, with the new product code BCB, starting from September 19, 2025 [1][2] - The trading will include standard warehouse receipts and will be available from Monday to Friday, excluding national holidays, with specific trading hours [2][3] - The pricing methods will include full price quoting and premium/discount quoting, with the latter corresponding to the six nearest consecutive monthly contracts [1][3] Trading Details - The minimum price fluctuation is set at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The base price for listing will be announced on the trading day prior to the launch [3] - The maximum price fluctuation limit will align with the delivery month contract's price limit [3] Participation and Fees - Initially, only enterprises within customs special supervision zones will be allowed to participate in the trading [3][4] - There will be no transaction fees for the international copper standard warehouse receipt trading [3][4] - The platform will collect and transfer storage and transfer fees for the delivery warehouses based on existing regulations for international copper futures [3][4] Banking and Warehousing - Several banks, including Industrial and Agricultural Bank of China, are designated as custodial banks for the trading [5] - Seven warehouses, including Shanghai Zhongchu Lingang Logistics Co., Ltd., are designated for the delivery of international copper standard warehouse receipts [5][6] Online Pledge Business - An online pledge business for international copper standard warehouse receipts will commence from the launch date [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: On Hold [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. In September, this pattern may not change significantly. However, under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a shock - strengthening pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.17/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, waste white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and waste black shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,920 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close. Some downstream battery enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to fear of price drops, and the market transaction was mainly for rigid demand, but there was a slight improvement in some areas [2] Inventory - On September 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared with the same period last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [3]

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-12 港口库存持续累积，MTO等待复工 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润818元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2123元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差336元/吨（+15），内蒙南线2120元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2388元/吨（-8），鲁 南基差201元/吨（+13）；河南2255元/吨（-35），河南基差68元/吨（-15）；河北2305元/吨（+0），河北基差178元/ 吨（+20）。隆众内地工厂库存342560吨（-4523），西北工厂库存221300吨（-3700）；隆众内地工厂待发订单250723 吨（+9438），西北工厂待发订单136600吨（+3400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2285元/吨（-10），太仓基差-102元/吨（+10），CFR中国264美元/吨（+2），华东进口价差-11 元/吨（+3），常州甲醇2485元/吨；广东甲醇2282元/吨（-8），广东基差-105元/吨（+12）。隆众港口总库存1550330 吨（+122675），江苏港口库存804000吨（+44000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol trading follows the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price on the futures market is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. It's not advisable to bottom - fish yet, and attention should be paid to import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export situation is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity. The supply pressure can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations, and the import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 10 from September 10th to 11th [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic is the port pressure transmission to the inland. The inland has seasonal and new device stocking demand, but the port's reverse flow will impact the inland. The current valuation, inventory, and driving forces are not ideal for bottom - fishing [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of different types of polyethylene in different regions had minor changes, and the import profit and other indicators also showed some adjustments. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2695 from September 10th to 11th [6]. - **Viewpoint**: The overall inventory is neutral. The import profit is around - 200. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6540 to 6680. The prices of polypropylene in different regions and other related indicators had certain fluctuations. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 on September 8th - 11th, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 5 from September 10th to 11th. The prices of PVC in different regions and other related indicators had minor changes [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC industry has significant fundamental pressure, with a low basis. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate downward, and the recommended strategy is to sell short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has slightly increased in some regions. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly increased but is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its September quotation by $10 - 30 per ton. Recent export orders are average. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50 per ton for the Chinese mainland. The export outlook for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year is weakening [1]. - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to July 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate increased last week and remains high. New production capacities are coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production lines planned for trial runs in September [1]. - The support from calcium carbide prices is still weak, and PVC faces significant pressure before the demand is substantially improved. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological innovation. The macro - policy of anti - involution and elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry will affect the subsequent market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,838 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.80%. The position volume decreased by 23,861 lots to 1,242,667 lots [2]. Basis - On September 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,680 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,857 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 31 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, maintenance devices such as Gansu Yinguang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities are coming on stream as mentioned above [5]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to July 2025, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the residential sales area decreased by 4.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 495.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 6.2%. The new construction area of houses was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion area of houses was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the completion area of residential houses was 180.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The overall improvement of the real estate market still takes time [6]. - As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 30.28% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [6]. - As of the week of September 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons, an increase of 3.73% compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high [6].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Data Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK604 | 7868 | -10 | -0.13% | 18 | 500.00% | 435 | 0.93% | | PK510 | 7894 | 18 | 0.23% | 7,767 | 8.34% | 25,643 | -7.08% | | PK601 | 7824 | -22 | -0.28% | 6,322 | -16.91% | 36,770 | 1.19% | [3] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today's Quote | 9000 | 8400 | 8400 | 3350 | 2990 | 14780 | 8410 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | Basis | 1106 | 506 | 506 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal | 0 | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil | 6370 | [3] Import Price - Sudanese Rice: 8500 yuan/ton, no change - Senegalese Rice: Information incomplete, 0 change [3] Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK01 - PK04 | -44 | -12 | PK04 - PK10 | -26 | -28 | PK10 - PK01 | 70 | 40 | [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; Liaoning Changtu is 3.95 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts are 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined new rice is 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, stable. Peanut spot is expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - Most peanut oil mills have stopped purchasing. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 8050 yuan/ton. Soybean oil and peanut oil prices are stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][8] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal spot is weak, at 2980 yuan/ton, stable. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3260 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Those looking to bottom - fish can try Peanut 05 [11] - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Basis between Peanut Spot and Continuous Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Spread between Peanut 10 - 1 Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Spread between Peanut 1 - 4 Contracts (yuan/ton) [15][21][24]