Gold Sector - The price of gold has recently surpassed $4,700 per ounce, marking an 8.8% increase in January, with a total rise of over $380 [9] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have led to increased market volatility and a rise in risk aversion [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently trading above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $4,680 and resistance at $4,760 [2] Oil Sector - The EU is set to impose a complete ban on imports of refined products from Russian oil, significantly impacting the supply of distillates from India to Europe [3] - Recent oil price rebounds are driven by concerns over potential supply shortages, exacerbated by escalating geopolitical tensions related to Greenland [3] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices are currently consolidating between $56 and $62, with support at $58.50 and resistance at $59.80 [4] Currency Sector - The US dollar has weakened due to escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland, with the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries [5] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar is currently trading between 97.90 and 99.40, with a short-term downward trend [5] Nasdaq Sector - The Nasdaq index has shown a downward trend, trading between 24,700 and 25,800, with support at 24,700 and resistance at 25,300 [7] Copper Sector - Copper prices are currently consolidating above $5.70, with a focus on resistance at $5.86 and support at $5.72 [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices surged, with spot gold breaking the $4700 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a high of $4717.02, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to aggressive U.S. foreign policy and trade tensions with Europe [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is primarily influenced by President Trump's aggressive foreign policy and tariff threats, which have intensified trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - Silver prices also reached a historical high during this period, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the short term, weak economic data suggests a potential resumption of rate cuts by mid-2026 [1] - The pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and the challenges to its independence have further supported gold prices [1] Group 3: Current Market Status - As of January 20, 2026, spot gold was reported at $4725.88 per ounce, reflecting a 1.20% increase, while spot silver was at $94.94 per ounce, with a 0.28% increase [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market continued to show weak differentiation and volatility on January 20, with the metal sector generally rebounding, led by lithium carbonate which hit the daily limit with a 9% increase [1][2] - The comprehensive market price index closed at 1675.54 points, up 10.84 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day, while the commodity futures index closed at 2310.52 points, also up 14.95 points or 0.65% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Spot gold prices broke through the $4700 per ounce mark, reaching above $4720, driven by rising risk aversion due to escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and Europe [2] - The rise in gold prices also supported silver, platinum, and palladium prices [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded strongly, closing at a limit-up price with an increase of 8.99% [2] - Despite recent price declines and regulatory pressures, there is strong purchasing interest from downstream sectors, indicating potential for future price stability [2] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector experienced widespread declines, with coking coal and coke prices dropping by 4.50% and 3.54% respectively, leading the market downturn [4] - The supply pressure in the coking coal and coke markets remains significant, with increased imports and rising inventories contributing to a bearish outlook [4] Group 5: Other Chemical Products - Other chemical products also showed weakness, with glass and soda ash prices falling by 3.12% and 2% respectively, and several other chemicals declining by over 2% [5] - Aluminum oxide prices fell by 2.91%, returning below 2700 yuan per ton, as the market continues to face oversupply issues [5]

Core Insights - Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce for the first time, with a daily increase of 0.81% and a year-to-date increase of 33% [1] - Spot gold has risen nearly 1% to $4,724 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 10% [1] - Both metals continue to set new records [1] Group 1 - The recent upward trend in silver prices is driven by three main factors: favorable macroeconomic data, sustained industrial demand, and increased safe-haven sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market for casting aluminum alloys is experiencing pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, despite stable supply conditions and some positive macroeconomic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) opened high but saw a slight rebound after a dip, closing at 22,765 yuan, up 30 yuan, with a trading volume of 10,762 lots, an increase of 346 lots [1]. - The holding position decreased by 685 lots to 19,520 lots [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Current prices for casting aluminum alloys are as follows: A356.2 at 25,800 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), A380 at 25,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), ADC12 at 23,600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), ZL102 at 25,200 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and ZLD104 at 25,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) [1][2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains stable, but some factories are limited in production due to profit losses and environmental policies, leading to pressure on casting aluminum prices [2]. - Demand is weak as the end market is in a low season, with alloy plant operating rates declining and the automotive sector also slowing down [2]. - The price of scrap aluminum remains high, increasing costs for recycled aluminum alloy producers, while downstream die-casting enterprises are struggling to accept high prices, further impacting demand [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the casting aluminum market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance, with prices likely to experience fluctuations and adjustments due to the current economic conditions [2].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% to 26,487.51 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 2,377.66 million [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a long-term upward trend but faces short-term challenges. There is a strong consensus on domestic fundamentals, but significant divergence regarding overseas factors, leading to an underestimation of overseas risks [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of HKD 251 million for 1.4 million shares at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2 [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5 [2] Sector Highlights - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time [3] - Consumer concept stocks gained traction, particularly Pop Mart, which saw a significant increase following its buyback announcement. Insurance stocks performed well, with China Pacific Insurance rising over 4% [3] Gold and Real Estate Sector - Gold stocks rebounded, with Zijin Mining (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94 [3] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with several stocks like Jianfa International Group (01908) rising by 6.22% to HKD 15.21 [4] Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance sector saw strong performance, with China Pacific (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, and China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4. The sector's growth is attributed to a significant increase in premium income from bancassurance channels [5][6] Aviation Sector Trends - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (01055) rising by 4.57% to HKD 6.18. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season [7] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) surged by 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum with an Indian automotive parts supplier [8] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising by 6.04% to HKD 71.95, with plans to invest approximately USD 436.6 million in a new aluminum project [9] - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) increased by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a global memory chip shortage [10] - Shanghai Petrochemical (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the fiscal year [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's renewed threats of tariffs against Europe, reminiscent of the market turmoil following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs last April [4][12] - The EU is considering retaliatory tariffs on $100 billion worth of U.S. imports, but its decision-making capabilities are widely questioned [4][12] - The U.S.-EU bilateral trade is projected to reach €1.68 trillion in 2024, accounting for 30% of global trade and 43% of global GDP, indicating significant economic interdependence [4][12] Group 2 - European stock markets experienced a collective decline, with major indices such as FTSE 100 and DAX dropping by 0.39% and 1.34% respectively [5][13] - The U.S. dollar index fell to around 99 after reaching a one-month high, while European currencies, including the Swiss franc and euro, saw gains [5][13] Group 3 - Safe-haven assets like gold and silver have surged, with silver deliveries in January reaching 8,288 contracts (41.44 million ounces), while COMEX registered silver inventory stands at 120 million ounces [6][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price closed at $103 per ounce, maintaining a premium over COMEX silver prices [6][16] Group 4 - Japan's bond market is facing significant selling pressure, with concerns over rising inflation risks and fiscal challenges due to proposed large-scale fiscal stimulus and tax cuts [6][16] - The Japanese yen is under pressure, with speculative positions turning net short, indicating heightened bearish sentiment [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to remain high in the short term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a total production reduction of 74.1 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills will have a daily production reduction of 1.62 tons during the shutdown [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [1] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [1] Aluminum - Macro - level tariff threats from the US to Europe will negatively impact aluminum demand expectations, while China's GDP growth and industrial added - value growth provide long - term support for aluminum demand [1] - Newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is increasing. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and the inventory of alumina plants has increased by 70.36 tons [1] - The price of alumina is falling, and the willingness of alumina plants to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, so the price of domestic bauxite may decline [1] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises are differentiated, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and the expansion of inventory - building willingness [1] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.9 tons compared to last Monday [1] - Due to macro uncertainties and weak fundamentals, but strong bullish sentiment from funds, aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point in global financial markets, with international gold prices driven by risk sentiment, reaching historical highs near $4720, reflecting a "risk-driven rally" due to multiple uncertainties [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have intensified, with U.S. President Trump reiterating threats of tariffs against European allies, potentially starting from February 1, which has raised concerns about renewed transatlantic trade tensions [1] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages during a critical winter period, heightening energy security concerns in Europe [1] Financial Conditions - A weakening U.S. dollar has provided crucial financial support for rising gold prices, as international funds are reducing their allocation to U.S. assets amid trade tensions and political uncertainties [2] - Despite discussions around the Federal Reserve's leadership and a reduction in aggressive rate cut expectations for 2026, the dollar index has declined, diminishing the dollar's appeal as a safe haven [2] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear and stable upward channel, with prices consistently rising above the channel's midline, indicating strong bullish momentum [2] - The price has recently broken through previous consolidation ranges and is now testing resistance around $4709–$4720, which is a critical battleground for bulls and bears [2] Future Outlook - If gold prices can effectively absorb selling pressure above $4700 and complete horizontal consolidation, there is potential for a further push towards the $4816 resistance level [3] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index and related macro data will be pivotal, as they are closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will directly impact market interest rate expectations and the dollar's trajectory [3] - Overall, the current rise in gold prices reflects increased global uncertainty rather than solely economic fundamentals or interest rate logic, with gold's safe-haven attributes likely to be re-evaluated until clear signals of easing geopolitical tensions emerge [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may slow down in the short term, while there is a certain divergence between domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Attention should be paid to the rotation potential of low - valued sectors, and specific opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The driving force of the non - ferrous sector has slowed down. Trump announced no new tariffs on key mineral imports but plans to impose tariffs on goods from eight European countries starting from 2026. The Fed Chairman candidate situation is uncertain, and the CME will adjust the margin settings for precious metals. The CMX - LME spread of copper has converged, so the short - term upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may ease. On January 19, the market fluctuated, with gold stocks, grid equipment stocks, and robot concepts performing well [1] Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - Since October, overseas economic prosperity has declined, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. In December, China's exports and imports exceeded expectations. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching over 140 trillion yuan. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the mining and manufacturing industries had positive investment growth. China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected, while the US manufacturing index declined and non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain, but short - term growth may slow. In the energy sector, the US plans to "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. In the black metal sector, domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair potential should be focused on. For precious metals, there are opportunities to buy gold on dips [3] Market Trends and Key Data - On January 19, the market fluctuated, with gold stocks, grid equipment stocks, and robot concepts rising. China's GDP in 2025 reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, with different growth rates in different industries and quarters. In December, China's industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, while social consumption growth slowed. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [5]