#第一金PPLI：黄金白银市场动态解析与投资参考 从最新市场数据来看，全球规模领先的黄金 ETF 持 仓变动引发关注 —— 截至 9 月 11 日，其持仓量录得 977.95 吨，较前一交易日减少 2.01 吨，短期市场 对黄金的配置意愿略有降温；不过拉长至月度维度，该 ETF 本月仍实现 0.27 吨净增持，说明机构对黄 金的中长期配置价值仍持认可态度，为金价提供了一定支撑。 地缘政治层面，墨西哥近期推出的提税政策引发广泛讨论。据央视新闻报道，有分析认为，此举不仅与 美国长期对华战略方向一致，有助于墨西哥后续与北美贸易伙伴的磋商进程，还能配合 "墨西哥计划" 推动本土生产与消费升级。对此，中国方面已明确表态，将根据实际情况采取必要应对措施，地缘局势 的不确定性为黄金的避险属性提供了发挥空间。 美国经济数据呈现 "喜忧参半" 态势：8 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%、环比攀升 0.4%，基本符合市场预期，通 胀水平保持相对稳定；但上周美国初请失业金人数意外飙升至 26.3 万，创下近四年以来的新高，劳动 力市场疲软信号明显。通胀涨幅超预期叠加失业救济人数激增，进一步加剧了美国经济前景的不确定 性，市场避险情绪 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% and the Northern Securities 50 dropped by 1.26% [3] - Trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of 16,487 billion, up by 1,526 billion compared to the same time yesterday, indicating concentrated capital flow into specific sectors [3] Strong Performing Sectors - The metals and gold sectors were the most notable gainers, with companies like Northern Copper and Hunan Silver reaching their daily limit, driven by international risk aversion and supply-demand dynamics in commodities [3] - The real estate sector also showed strong activity, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Huaxia Happiness hitting their daily limit, reflecting market expectations regarding real estate policies [3] - The storage chip sector remained resilient, with companies like Shannon Chip and Jiangbo Long experiencing gains, signaling a recovery in the industry cycle [3] Weak Performing Sectors - The liquor sector, including stocks like Guojiao and Shede Liquor, experienced a decline after an initial rise, attributed to short-term emotional fluctuations rather than fundamental changes [4] - The gaming and photovoltaic equipment sectors also faced adjustments, with companies like Youzu Network dropping over 5%, influenced by recent policy changes and demand fluctuations [4] - The overall market volatility should not be overly scrutinized, as the focus should be on capital flow and the sustainability of sectoral support [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% to 3884.71 points, marking a new high since August 19, 2015 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52%, and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.26% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.6487 trillion yuan, an increase of 152.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3000 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors performed strongly, with Electric Alloy (300697) rising over 16%, and several companies including Shengda Resources and Yuguang Gold & Lead hitting the daily limit [3] - The steel sector saw a rally near noon, with Hualing Steel (000932) touching the daily limit and other companies like Shougang Co. and New Steel Co. rising over 5% [3] - The real estate sector strengthened, with companies such as Xiangjiang Holdings and Rongsheng Development hitting the daily limit, indicating improved confidence in quality real estate companies [3] Chip and Beverage Sector - The storage chip sector also saw gains, with companies like Kaipu Cloud and Dongxin Co. rising over 10%, and Demingli hitting the daily limit, following a significant increase of over 7.5% in major storage manufacturer Micron [4] - Conversely, the liquor sector faced declines, with Guizhou Moutai (000799) dropping over 3% and Shede Liquor (600702) falling over 2% [4] - Brokerage stocks generally declined, with Guohai Securities (000750) down over 2%, and other firms like Pacific Securities and Tianfeng Securities falling over 1% [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% to 3884.71 points, marking a new high since August 19, 2015 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52%, and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.26% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,487 billion yuan, an increase of 1,526 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,000 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors performed strongly, with electric alloy stocks rising over 16%, and companies like Shengda Resources, Yuguang Gold Lead, Northern Copper, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [1] - The steel sector saw a rally near noon, with Hualing Steel reaching the daily limit, and Shougang and New Steel shares rising over 5% [1] - The real estate sector strengthened, with stocks like Xiangjiang Holdings, Rongsheng Development, and Shoukai Holdings hitting the daily limit, as institutional investors noted a stabilization in the performance of quality real estate companies and increased confidence in land acquisition [1] - The storage chip sector also surged, with stocks like Kaipu Cloud and Dongxin shares rising over 10%, and Demingli hitting the daily limit, following a significant overnight increase of over 7.5% in major storage manufacturer Micron [1] Declining Sectors - The liquor sector faced declines, with Guojijiu falling over 3% and Shede Liquor dropping over 2% [1] - Brokerage stocks generally declined, with Guohai Securities falling over 2%, and Pacific and Tianfeng Securities dropping over 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For gold, the US CPI was in line with expectations, leading to a sideways movement in gold prices. Although the expectation of a Fed rate - cut has increased as the September Fed meeting approaches, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has significantly converged to -4.5 yuan/gram. Gold prices remain strong but there is a risk of an early decline if the rate - cut is implemented next week [4]. - For silver, with the US CPI in line with expectations, risk appetite has increased, causing silver prices to rebound. As the September Fed meeting nears and the rate - cut expectation rises, risk appetite remains strong, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver is maintained at around 366 yuan/kg [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, risk appetite increased, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.28 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 4200 kg to 50151 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -28 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 11983 kg to 1240187 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held at Shougang Park, and BYD Yangwang U8L Ding Shi Edition will be launched. - 11:40: Speech by Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jones. - 14:00: UK GDP for July and final German CPI for August. - 15:00: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member, Escrivá. - 16:00: Speeches on monetary policy by European Central Bank Governing Council members, Rehn and Kohler. - 16:15: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and President of the German Bundesbank, Nagel. - 18:30: Announcement of the interest rate decision by the Central Bank of Russia, followed by a press conference on monetary policy by Governor Nabiullina. - 22:00: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September. - Saturday: Circuit breaker test in the US New York Stock Exchange [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, making them still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 3903 to 247,884, the short position increased by 1746 to 84,143, and the net position decreased by 5649 to 163,741. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings have started to decrease [31][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 4432 to 361,896, the short position decreased by 5047 to 242,218, and the net position increased by 615 to 119,678. The silver ETF holdings continue to decrease but are higher than the same period in the past two years [32][37].

Macro News - The U.S. government revised down the non-farm employment numbers by 911,000 for the year ending in March, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a significant trade dispute during the first week of November [1] - French President Macron appointed 39-year-old Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister amid a €3 trillion debt crisis [1] - Israel reported precision strikes against Hamas leaders in Qatar, confirming the deaths of five members in airstrikes, while Khalil al-Hayya was not assassinated [1] Institutional Perspectives - Precious metal prices generally retreated in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures down 0.37% at $3,663.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.31% at $41.36 per ounce [1] - The downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, further confirming the weakness in the U.S. job market, leading to a short-term correction in precious metals [1] - Current bullish factors for gold include expectations of liquidity easing, as August non-farm data fell short of expectations, with the market fully pricing in rate cuts starting in September and three cuts within the year [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve were heightened by a court ruling declaring Trump's tariff policy illegal and the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, alongside political instability in France and Japan, which increased uncertainty in non-U.S. markets and boosted safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Looking ahead, with declining employment and rising inflation, expectations for liquidity easing are likely to provide support for gold and silver prices, with limited downside potential in the short term [1] - The expected trading range for Comex gold is between $3,500 and $3,750 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold range is between ¥795 and ¥835 per gram [1] - The expected trading range for Comex silver is between $39 and $42 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between ¥9,500 and ¥10,000 per kilogram [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with London gold reaching $3646.31 per ounce, approaching $3700, and an increase of nearly $1000 per ounce year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and investor demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 10, 2023, the total market size of gold-themed ETFs reached nearly 150 billion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 50 billion yuan this year [3][4]. - The top-performing gold ETFs include Huaan Gold ETF with a size of 59.823 billion yuan and a net inflow of 21.19 billion yuan, followed by Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, both exceeding 25 billion yuan in size [3][4]. Investment Trends - The strong performance of gold-related ETFs indicates a significant investor interest, with many funds reporting returns over 30% this year, and some exceeding 70% [5]. - Investors are advised to consider various gold investment tools, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and derivatives, based on their risk preferences [1][8]. Underlying Factors for Price Increase - The rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Fed, which have collectively increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Future Outlook - Short-term price movements may be influenced by upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, while long-term trends suggest a continued upward trajectory for gold prices due to ongoing global economic uncertainties [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. economic data, particularly the August PPI, has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a bullish sentiment in the gold market. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. August PPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, marking the first negative change in four months, and the year-on-year growth was 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% [1] - The core PPI for August also fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% compared to the anticipated 3.5% [3] - The weak employment data further supports the notion that the Federal Reserve may need to implement rate cuts, with market expectations stabilizing around three cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the release of the PPI data, there is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which has led to a bullish outlook for gold prices [2][4] - BNP Paribas forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce within the next two to six months, driven by the weak job market and economic slowdown [4] - The geopolitical tensions, including the situation between Russia and Poland, as well as the recent conflict involving Israel, have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downwards, indicating a worsening economic outlook and strengthening expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][5] - The revised report shows a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs over the past year, leading to an average monthly increase of nearly 76,000 jobs, which is a significant reduction from previous estimates [2][5] - Analysts suggest that the labor market's deterioration may challenge previous optimistic views on a "soft landing" for the economy, with implications for future monetary policy [5][6] Group 2 - The international gold price has surged, breaking the $3,700 per ounce mark, driven by increased market uncertainty and a shift towards safe-haven assets [1][8] - Analysts expect gold and silver prices to maintain a strong upward trend in the medium to long term, supported by interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1][8] - The recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have led to a renewed focus on gold as a "ultimate store of value," with significant inflows into precious metals [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged significantly in 2023, rising from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,600 per ounce, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date gain of 40% [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On September 9, the spot gold price reached a new high of $3,674.78 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures also reflecting a similar increase, nearing 40% year-to-date [3]. - Domestic gold-related stocks experienced a strong rally, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Western Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Hengbang Shares [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the independence of the Fed impacting the US dollar, and increased risk aversion due to fiscal and political pressures [4][6]. - The downward revision of US non-farm payroll data has intensified market bets on multiple rate cuts by the Fed, further supporting gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China reporting a rise in gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [7]. - The World Gold Council noted that global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in Q2 2023, maintaining a high level of accumulation [7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue in the medium to long term, driven by the weakening of the dollar-based credit monetary system and ongoing geopolitical instability [8]. - Various institutions have raised their gold price targets, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 under certain scenarios [9].