Summary of Politburo Meeting Content and Review 1. Meeting Summaries - **2025/7/30 Meeting**: China's economy has made new achievements in high - quality development, with major economic indicators performing well, new - quality productivity actively developing, and reform and opening - up deepening. However, it still faces risks and challenges. The focus is on maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation to achieve the "14th Five - Year Plan" finalization [2]. - **2025/4/25 Meeting**: The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation. Policies should be more actively implemented, and efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and deal with external impacts [2]. - **2024/12/9 Meeting**: The economy has run steadily with progress, and the main goals of economic and social development for the year will be smoothly achieved. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, promote high - quality development, and lay a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]. 2. Policy Directions Macroeconomic Policy - **General Tone**: All meetings emphasize the need for proactive macro - policies. In 2025/7/30 and 2025/4/25, it is about implementing and making full use of active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In 2024/12/9, it focuses on super - conventional counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - **Fiscal Policy**: All meetings stress positive fiscal policies, including accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Meetings advocate maintaining liquidity, with 2025/4/25 specifically mentioning timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and all meetings highlighting support for key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. Industry Policy - **New - Quality Productivity**: Promote the development of new - quality productivity through technological innovation and industry - innovation integration, and cultivate emerging pillar industries [2]. - **Competition Order**: Regulate competition order, manage over - capacity in key industries, and standardize local investment promotion [2]. Domestic Demand Expansion - **Consumption**: Stimulate consumption through various means such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, developing service consumption, and implementing consumption promotion campaigns [2]. - **Investment**: Promote "two - major" construction, expand effective investment, and stimulate private investment [2]. Risk Resolution - All meetings stress the need to prevent and resolve key - area risks, especially local government debt risks, and ensure no systemic risks [2]. Other Key Areas - **Reform and Opening - up**: Deepen reform, expand high - level opening - up, and stabilize foreign trade and investment [2]. - **Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers**: Strengthen the "three rural" work, stabilize agricultural product prices, and promote rural development [2]. - **Employment**: Implement employment - priority policies to promote the employment of key groups [2]. - **Real Estate**: Promote the stable development of the real estate market and build a new development model [2]. - **Capital Market**: Strengthen the attractiveness and stability of the capital market [2].

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议 分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 "整体来看，中央政治局会议对当前经济形势给予积极评价。我国经济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表 现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展取得新成效。同时，会议指出经济运行依然面临不少风险挑 战。当前外部环境复杂严峻，国内仍存在结构性矛盾，要增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，把握好巩固回 升态势与推进结构调整之间的平衡。"中信证券首席经济学家明明分析认为。 会议重申稳中求进的工作总基调，提出下半年宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 在业内专家看来，"持续发力"是要抓好现有政策的落实。财政政策方面包括加快政府债券发行使用，提 高资金使用效率，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 数据显示，今年上半年新增专项债发行超2.1万亿元，比去年同期多发超6670亿元，发行进度达49%， 较去年同期显著加快，带动宽口径基建投资同比增长8.9%。今年以来，财政支出进一步向"三保"领域倾 斜。根据财政预算报告，2025年民生领域支出占比为37.1%，较去年有所提升。 "对财政政策的表述从4月的'用好用足'变为'落实落细'。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with short - term price range - bound operation and subsequent attention to the inventory - consumption trend [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged at the meeting, which was in line with market expectations and the fifth consecutive decision to maintain the interest rate this year. Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [1] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. Domestic bauxite supply is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable. Imported bauxite inventories at ports and alumina plants are high. Although the alumina futures price has risen, the oversupply pattern is hard to change, and the spot price growth is slow. The bauxite price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] - As of July 31, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has lost its advantage of being at a three - year low. The weekly出库 volume of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous period, reaching a new low this year [2] - Since late July, due to the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot supply pressure remains high, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The current off - season inventory accumulation and demand - side pressure limit the upward space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [2][3]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.40% to 118.360 yuan, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 108.300 yuan, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.630 yuan, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.03% to 102.336 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally fell by around 3 basis points, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield down by 3.85 basis points, the 10-year government bond "25 National Development 10" yield down by 3.5 basis points, and the 7-year government bond "25 Attached Government Bond 07" yield down by 3.25 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 3.09 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the full bid amount being accepted [2] - On the same day, 1.505 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 1.585 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market saw the DR001 rate decline by nearly 5 basis points to around 1.31%, while the 7-day term rates also fell by nearly 5 basis points [2] Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting highlighted a positive economic outlook, emphasizing the need to leverage development opportunities and consolidate economic recovery [3] - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy remains accommodative with potential for rate cuts [3] - The meeting also addressed support for consumption, government investment, and real estate, with a focus on optimizing market competition and addressing capacity issues in key industries [3] Operational Recommendations - The market sentiment for government bonds has improved following the Politburo meeting, with expectations for a potential recovery in bond prices [4] - Short-term strategies suggest increasing positions in government bonds to capitalize on potential price recovery, while monitoring economic data such as the July PMI [4]

来源：国泰海通证券研究 导读 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工 作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适 逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与2020年7月政治局会议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： 第一，对财政和货币政策的要求从"用好用足"转变为"落实落细"，"充分释放政策效应"。财政政策方面，会议要求"提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面， 则要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"。在二季度各项宏观政策已经在加速落实的背景下，下半年将更加关注政策效果。 第二，"反内卷"淡化"低价"，置于全国统一大市场建设的总体布局之中。与中央 ...

中新社北京7月30日电 中新社记者 王恩博 中国"十四五"规划将于今年底收官，下半年经济走势如何，既关乎完成全年发展目标，也关乎为又 一个五年画上圆满句号。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，传递多重有力信号。 ——经济顶压前行展现活力 在今年二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的情况下，中国经济表现好于预期。 除了上半年5.3%的国内生产总值(GDP)增速快于去年同期和全年，人流、物流、资金流都在改善。 一个突出例子是，上半年中国市场销售环比逐季增长，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元人民 币，52%的经济增长由消费这架"主引擎"贡献。 政治局会议对此给予肯定，认为中国经济"展现强大活力和韧性"。会议提醒，要"用好发展机遇、 潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉分析称，中国经济的体量、韧性以及产业领域 积累的深厚基础、关联关系等，是当前经济稳健运行的强有力保障。加之经营主体的能力和本领在市场 竞争中不断提高，积极应变能力增强，共同助力中国经济在政策推动下稳中有进。 ——宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 这种广受市场认可的 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - Macro policies will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, with a call for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, especially in the context of a complex external environment, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [6][7] - There is a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in expanding goods consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - Investment is identified as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on high-quality infrastructure construction and stimulating private investment [10] Group 3 - The meeting underscored the necessity of deepening reforms to drive economic growth, with a focus on technological innovation, optimizing market competition, and improving the business environment for private enterprises [11][12] - High-level opening-up is emphasized to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and enhance their competitiveness [12][13] Group 4 - Continuous efforts are required to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability, to ensure sustainable economic development [14][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of ensuring social welfare and employment, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, while maintaining safety in production and food supply [17]

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting reviewed the economic performance in the first half of the year and outlined precise plans for the second half, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable and continuous policy approach while enhancing flexibility and foresight to adapt to internal and external changes [2][3] - Specific measures include accelerating government bond issuance, improving fund utilization efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level [3][4] Group 2 - Monetary policy is a crucial component of macro policy, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and reducing the overall financing costs in society [4][6] - In the first half of the year, significant reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates were implemented, leading to lower average interest rates for both corporate and personal loans [4][6] - There is potential for further monetary easing in the second half, including possible interest rate cuts and adjustments to the loan market quotation rate (LPR) [4][6] Group 3 - Structural monetary policy tools are essential for targeted support, particularly for technology innovation, consumption stimulation, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6] - The central bank announced an increase in the quota for re-loans aimed at technology innovation and small enterprises, indicating a commitment to enhancing credit support in these areas [6][7] - The meeting also emphasized the need to optimize market competition and regulate chaotic business practices, which may impact industrial prices and corporate profits [7]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized a positive outlook on the current economic situation, stating that China's economy has shown strong vitality and resilience, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual target of around 5.0% [2][3] - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the first half of the year and set a macro policy tone for the second half to consolidate and expand the economic recovery [2][4] - The macro policy will continue to focus on stable growth, with specific measures including accelerating government bond issuance and maintaining ample liquidity [4][6] Group 2 - The meeting did not emphasize challenges from the international economic environment, indicating a potential stabilization of bilateral tariffs between China and the U.S. in the next 90 days [3] - There will be targeted support for export enterprises facing difficulties, reflecting a proactive approach to stabilize foreign trade and investment [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting domestic demand and effectively releasing its potential, with expectations for further consumer stimulus policies [6][7] Group 3 - The meeting signaled a continued push for "anti-involution" policies, focusing on optimizing market competition and regulating disorderly competition among enterprises [5][6] - The emphasis on enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market suggests ongoing support for stabilizing and improving market conditions [7] - The potential for new policies to attract domestic and foreign capital inflows into the market is anticipated, which could support a bullish trend in the market [7]

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while maintaining policy continuity and flexibility [1] - The meeting acknowledged the strong vitality and resilience of the economy this year, but also recognized various risks and challenges that need to be addressed [1] - Macro policies are to be sustained and adjusted as necessary, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 2 - Specific tasks for the second half of the year include effectively releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, stabilizing foreign trade and investment, and ensuring the protection of people's livelihoods [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a bottom-line thinking approach to consolidate the positive economic momentum [2]