Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways to bearish [2] - Iron ore: Sideways to bearish [5] - Coking coal: Sideways [8] - Coke: Sideways [8] - Thermal coal: No strategy provided [10] Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward. The inventory pressure will increase after the pre - holiday restocking ends, and supply control is needed later [1]. - Iron ore shipments have slightly rebounded, and the price is oscillating downward. It shows a situation of strong supply and demand in the short term, and the price will remain range - bound [3][4]. - The double - coking market has strong risk - aversion sentiment and is oscillating. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the demand for coke remains resilient [6][8]. - The thermal coal market has intensified wait - and - see sentiment, and the coal price in the production area is running weakly. The price will be under pressure in the short term [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The national urban inventory of building materials was 491.96 million tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; the national urban inventory of hot - rolled coils was 221.74 million tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The domestic macro - policy is in a wait - and - see period. Steel inventory has been accumulating, weaker than seasonal performance. After the pre - holiday restocking, the inventory pressure of finished products will increase. Attention should be paid to steel consumption after the National Day holiday, and supply suppression is needed to relieve the inventory pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The total cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 584,000 tons, a 46.00% week - on - week increase; the cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 1.1 million tons, a 110% week - on - week increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment volume of 347.54 million tons, a 4.5% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.05 million tons, an 11.8% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this week, with strong shipment resilience. The arrival volume increased rapidly. The demand for iron ore is resilient as steel mills have good profits and no intention to cut production actively. The port inventory increased slightly, and the floating inventory decreased. The steel mill's iron ore inventory increased seasonally and is at a high level in the same period. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. The price will remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and coal price changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for other aspects [5]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures oscillated weakly throughout the day. The main contracts of coking coal and coke both fell, with declines of 4.98% and 4.16% respectively. The price of imported coal fell with the disk, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the holiday approaches, speculative demand has declined, and some funds have strong risk - aversion sentiment. For coking coal, supply is relatively loose, and demand from downstream coking enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. For coke, the daily output has decreased, and downstream steel mills still have relatively high production enthusiasm, and the consumption demand is resilient [8]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the market is running weakly as the holiday approaches. The prices of most coal mines are under pressure to decline. In the port area, the market sentiment is average, and the transaction price has slightly decreased. The price of imported coal is stable, and the trading activity has decreased [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the double - festival holiday approaches, the wait - and - see sentiment in the market has intensified. The price will oscillate in the short term, and the supply is expected to remain loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment is weak, with all treasury bond futures closing lower. The bond market is volatile between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Catalogues I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a 0.10% increase and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.94, down 0.25 or 0.25%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1237, down 0.017 or 0.24%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, up 0.03 or 1.74%. DR007 is 1.59, up 0.03 or 2.04%. R007 is 1.51, down 0.05 or 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, down 0.01 or 0.43%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a - 0.43% change [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [15][16][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [33][27]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][35][36]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [48][42][51]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [60][65][62]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][72][73]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate is volatile, and the price of treasury bond futures is also volatile. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China is stable, supported by macro policies and external pressures [1] - Key sectors such as manufacturing and services are showing positive growth trends [1] - Industrial enterprise profits have significantly improved, indicating a better economic climate [1] - The resilience and pressure resistance of the economy are evident, although risks and challenges remain [1] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing macro policies to further support economic recovery [1] - The NDRC is enhancing economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems to adapt to changing conditions [1] - A new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan is being introduced to support effective investment and bolster project capital [2] - The NDRC is working with relevant parties to ensure the timely deployment of these financial tools into specific projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the resilience of China's economy despite external pressures, highlighting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in maintaining stable growth and advancing high-quality development [1][2]. Economic Performance - In August, key economic indicators showed fluctuations, with consumption growth slowing and investment growth weak. However, the overall economic operation remains stable, supported by continuous macro policy efforts [1]. - The manufacturing and service sectors demonstrated positive growth, with the added value of major industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - Industrial profits improved significantly, with profits of large industrial enterprises turning from a decline of 1.7% in the first seven months to a growth of 0.9% in the first eight months, and a monthly increase of 20.4% in August [1][2]. Demand Side Analysis - The effectiveness of policies is evident, with strong resilience in consumption and investment. Retail sales of products related to trade-in programs continued to grow rapidly, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% in the first eight months [2]. - The information service industry, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing saw substantial investment growth of 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - In foreign trade, the total import and export volume in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [2]. Artificial Intelligence Development - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims for over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents by 2027, with private enterprises playing a crucial role in this development [3]. - The NDRC plans to support various enterprises, including private ones, to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative through policy support, funding, and project involvement [3]. "Three North" Project - The "Three North" project is recognized as the largest and longest ecological protection and restoration project globally. The NDRC has released a comprehensive plan emphasizing larger strategic goals, systematic governance measures, and diverse governance models [4][5]. - The NDRC will establish a stable funding mechanism and enhance ecological product value realization to encourage participation from various stakeholders in the project [5]. New Policy Financial Tools - The NDRC announced the establishment of new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital. This initiative is expected to accelerate project construction and promote stable economic development [5].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and supporting effective investment in various sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Monitoring and Policy Implementation - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of continuous economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on changing circumstances [2]. - Despite external pressures, China's economy is generally stable, with solid progress in high-quality development driven by macro policies [2]. - The NDRC plans to enhance macro policy implementation and strengthen economic monitoring to ensure sustained economic stability and health [2]. Group 2: New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools amount to 500 billion yuan, exclusively for project capital supplementation [3]. - The NDRC is working with relevant parties to expedite the allocation of these funds to specific projects, aiming to accelerate construction and increase effective investment [3]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The NDRC is focusing on the application of new-generation intelligent terminals and intelligent agents as part of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, with a target for application penetration by 2027 [4]. - The NDRC will create a conducive policy environment, promote technological collaboration, and expand market demand to facilitate the integration of AI across various industries [5][6]. - Support will be provided to private enterprises, especially SMEs, to engage deeply in the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, addressing challenges such as resource shortages and high technical barriers [6].

Economic Overview - In August, some economic indicators in China showed fluctuations, raising concerns about the achievement of the annual economic growth target amid slowing consumption, weak investment growth, and uncertain exports [1][2] - Despite external pressures, China's economy is generally stable, with high-quality development being steadily advanced, supported by continuous macro policy efforts [1][2] Supply-Side Analysis - Production is steadily growing, with significant increases in key sectors; in August, the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The service sector's production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with the accommodation and catering industry showing accelerated growth [1] Profitability Improvement - Industrial profits have shown significant improvement; in the first eight months, the profit growth rate for large-scale industrial enterprises turned positive, from a decline of 1.7% to a growth of 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Monthly profit growth shifted from a decline of 1.5% in July to a growth of 20.4% in August [1] Demand-Side Resilience - Policy effectiveness is evident, with strong resilience and pressure resistance; retail sales of products related to trade-in programs continue to grow rapidly, and service consumption potential is being released [2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1% in the first eight months, with significant increases in specific sectors such as information services and aerospace manufacturing [2] Foreign Trade Performance - In August, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [2] Artificial Intelligence Initiative - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims for over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents by 2027 [2][3] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of private enterprises in driving AI development, with 254,000 new AI software R&D private companies established in the first quarter of this year [3] Policy Support for AI Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to support various enterprises, including private ones, in participating in the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative through policy and financial measures [3] "Three North" Project - The "Three North" project is the largest ecological protection and restoration project globally, with a new overall plan emphasizing grand strategic goals and diverse governance models [4] New Financial Tools - A new type of policy financial tool has been established with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital [5] - The NDRC is working to ensure that these funds are allocated to specific projects to promote effective investment and economic stability [5]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and enhancing financing capabilities [1][2] - The new policy financial tools will be utilized to address the capital shortage in major projects, thereby leveraging bank loans and social capital to create a multiplier effect [1][2] - Local governments are actively organizing meetings to accelerate project reserve work, ensuring that eligible projects can be quickly implemented once policies are released [2] Group 2 - Despite external pressures, China's economy is generally stable, with solid progress in high-quality development, supported by continuous macro policy efforts [2] - The NDRC plans to strengthen economic monitoring and forecasting, ensuring timely policy adjustments based on changing circumstances [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative aims to promote the application of new intelligent terminals and systems, with a target application rate set for 2027 [3] Group 3 - The NDRC will support enterprises, including private ones, in participating in the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative through various measures, including financial support and project involvement [3] - The initiative focuses on key sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation, promoting pilot demonstrations and the development of practical applications [3] - Financial incentives, such as "AI vouchers," will be provided to support enterprises in utilizing computing power services and enhancing innovation [3]

Group 1 - The core message is the introduction of a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, which is crucial for local development and unlocking investment opportunities [1][2] - The new financial tool is expected to leverage investments significantly, with estimates suggesting it could stimulate up to 5 trillion yuan in total investment [3] - The initiative is designed to provide immediate support for investment and stabilize economic growth in the short term, while also promoting long-term high-quality economic development through support for technology and consumption upgrades [3] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively working to allocate the new financial tool funds to specific projects and will encourage local governments to expedite project construction [2] - The NDRC has emphasized the importance of ongoing macroeconomic policy implementation and monitoring to ensure economic stability and the achievement of annual targets [3]