Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4] - Silver: Reaching new highs [2][4] - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is rising [2][8] - Zinc: Trading in a narrow range [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting the price [2][14] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][16] - Aluminum: Trading within a range; Alumina: Slightly rebounding; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: Domestic and international markets are in resonance, and bullish sentiment remains strong [2][24] - Palladium: The upward pace has slowed, and it is moving up in a volatile manner [2][24] - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, but Indonesian policies are causing concerns [2][28] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines is causing fluctuations [2][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 979.90 with a -0.06% daily change; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% daily change. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% daily change; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% daily change [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 328,878 (up 87,762 from the previous day) and an open interest of 189,662 (down 7,090 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 1,904,227 (up 332,489 from the previous day) and an open interest of 337,467 (down 25,935 from the previous day) [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory was 91,716 kg (unchanged from the previous day); Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 36,070,160 (up 78,815 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver inventory was 899,636 kg (down 12,528 from the previous day); Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 453,176,217 (up 225,434 from the previous day) [4] News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is said to have performed "outstandingly" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives. Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [4] - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgency to cut interest rates further, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4] Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 94,320 with a 1.22% daily change; the LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,911 with a 0.34% daily change [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper index had a trading volume of 404,771 (up 90,659 from the previous day) and an open interest of 645,520 (up 13,578 from the previous day). The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 15,865 (down 3,536 from the previous day) and an open interest of 345,000 (up 2,699 from the previous day) [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 48,542 (up 2,803 from the previous day); LME Copper inventory was 157,750 (down 2,650 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 32.81% (down 2.39% from the previous day) [8] News - Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in the country [8] - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [8] - Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [8] Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 23,115 with a 0.17% daily change; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3078 with a 0.65% daily change [11] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a trading volume of 134,424 (up 46,063 from the previous day) and an open interest of 90,612 (up 4,247 from the previous day). The LME Zinc had a trading volume of 8,494 (down 14,475 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,088 (up 1,627 from the previous day) [11] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,590 tons (down 2,588 from the previous day); LME Zinc inventory was 99,250 tons (down 650 from the previous day) [11] News - The Japanese Finance Minister warned the foreign exchange market, suggesting that the intervention threshold has been approved by the US. The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal stimulus has pushed up Japanese government bond yields to a 27 - year high [11] - 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed does not need to cut interest rates at least until next spring, and the November CPI inflation data may be distorted [11] Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,920 with a 0.24% daily change; the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1984.5 with a 1.25% daily change [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract had a trading volume of 49,244 (down 7,217 from the previous day) and an open interest of 59,586 (down 2,591 from the previous day). The LME Lead had a trading volume of 5,862 (down 6,084 from the previous day) and an open interest of 177,303 (up 635 from the previous day) [14] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 13,838 tons (down 349 from the previous day); LME Lead inventory was 255,950 tons (down 2,675 from the previous day) [14] News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [14] - Trump's "appointed" Fed理事Milan said the Fed will face a recession risk if it does not cut interest rates next year. A 2026 Fed voter is hawkish, saying there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the November CPI is underestimated [14] Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily change; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% daily change [16] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract had a trading volume of 240,305 (down 3,224 from the previous day) and an open interest of 33,801 (down 107 from the previous day). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 180 (down 9 from the previous day) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53 from the previous day) [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,844 (up 242 from the previous day); LME Tin inventory was 4,645 (up 220 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 6.57% (down 0.38% from the previous day) [16] News - Similar to gold and silver news, including Fed Chairmanship competition, Fed's Williams' remarks, Japanese central bank's interest rate hike, etc. [16] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,220. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2956. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract had a trading volume of 253,929 and an open interest of 314,299. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 2.70 million tons [21] - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2498. The main contract had a trading volume of 170,083 and an open interest of 151,207 [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,290. The main contract had a trading volume of 4,594 and an open interest of 17,184 [21] News - Goldman Sachs believes that the global market in 2026 will be a "Song of Ice and Fire." The asset valuation is "overheated," and AI valuation has led the fundamentals significantly [23] - China's energy storage batteries are booming, with expected global shipments to jump 75% this year [23] Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 568.45 with a 6.54% increase; palladium futures 2606 closed at 508.45 with a 5.88% increase [24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Platinum had a trading volume of 54,306 (down 99,605 from the previous day) and an open interest of 41,087 (up 3,000 from the previous day). Shanghai Palladium had a trading volume of 28,327 (down 80,134 from the previous day) and an open interest of 17,699 (up 2,478 from the previous day) [24] News - Fed理事Milan said the necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened. Trump may appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year [27] - The negotiation between Ukraine and the US ended, and Zelensky said the key work of the "peace plan" draft was completed [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121,260. The 1 imported nickel price was 118,825 [28] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 [28] News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [28] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29] - The Indonesian government has taken various measures regarding the nickel mining and smelting industry, such as sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB approval procedures, and suspension of new smelting license issuance [29][30][31]

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.30%, closing at 98.301 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.36%, ending at 1205.80 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is not primarily driven by "settlement" but rather influenced by a weaker USD and central bank interventions, with settlement rates showing a decline rather than an increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Settlement - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated significantly by 1.42% against the USD, while the USD index only weakened by 0.34%. This has sparked discussions about a potential "year-end settlement wave" [3][4]. - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the settlement rate has decreased from 63.1% in September to 54.1% in October and 52.0% in November, indicating that the expected settlement wave has not materialized [3][4][8]. - Various indicators suggest that a settlement wave typically leads to higher swap points, increased RMB transaction volumes, and reduced foreign exchange deposits. However, since November, swap point spreads have decreased from 97 pips to 36 pips, and foreign exchange deposits have continued to grow [3][4][19]. Group 2: Year-End Settlement Patterns - Historically, "year-end settlement" tends to occur in December due to increased current account income, but improvements in settlement rates are not significant. The growth in settlement amounts is attributed to concentrated export receipts in Q4, significant increases in primary and secondary income, and slight increases in settlement rates [4][19]. - The changes in year-end settlement rates are influenced by prior RMB performance and the timing of the Spring Festival. When the RMB strengthens, the selling rate typically declines, while improvements in settlement rates often lag by 1-2 quarters [4][55]. Group 3: Potential for RMB to Break "7" - A delayed settlement wave may provide some short-term support for the RMB, with historical data indicating that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, settlement rates tend to improve. The upcoming Spring Festival may also extend this improvement into January [4][77]. - However, risks associated with a potential USD rebound and central bank interventions may affect the pace at which the RMB breaks the "7" level. Current non-commercial short positions in the USD have reached a record high, indicating a risk of reversal [4][88].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美元指数DXY日内下跌0.50%，现报98.24。英镑兑美元GBP/USD涨至1.3457，创10月17日以来新高。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月22日，美元指数跌0.5%，报98.26点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is not primarily driven by "settlement" but rather influenced by a weaker USD and central bank interventions, with settlement rates showing a decline rather than an increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Settlement - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated significantly by 1.42% against the USD, while the USD index has only weakened by 0.34%. This has sparked discussions about a potential "year-end settlement" [3][8]. - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the settlement rate has decreased from 63.1% in September to 54.1% in October and further to 52.0% in November, indicating that the expected settlement surge has not materialized [3][8]. - Various indicators suggest that a settlement surge typically leads to higher swap points, increased RMB transaction volumes, and reduced foreign exchange deposits. However, since November, swap point spreads have decreased from 97 pips to 36 pips, and foreign exchange deposits have continued to grow [3][19]. Group 2: Year-End Settlement Patterns - Historically, "year-end settlement" tends to occur in December due to increased current account income, but improvements in settlement rates are not significant. The growth in settlement amounts is attributed to concentrated export receipts, increased primary and secondary income, and a slight rise in settlement rates [4][43]. - The changes in year-end settlement rates are influenced by prior RMB performance and the timing of the Chinese New Year. Typically, when the RMB strengthens, the selling rate declines, while improvements in settlement rates lag by 1-2 quarters [4][55]. Group 3: Potential for RMB to Break "7" - A delayed settlement surge may provide some short-term support for the RMB, with historical data indicating that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, settlement rates often improve. The upcoming Chinese New Year may also extend this improvement into January [5][112]. - However, risks of a USD rebound and central bank interventions may affect the pace at which the RMB breaks the "7" level. Current non-commercial short positions in the USD are at a record high, indicating potential reversal risks [5][88].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the critical exchange rate of 7 against the US Dollar (USD), with current rates indicating a strong upward trend, making a breach of this level likely imminent [1][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - The Yuan has experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, starting at 7.33 CNY per USD in early 2025, dropping to a low of 7.48 CNY due to trade tensions, and then rebounding to a current rate of approximately 7.03 CNY, representing an overall appreciation of about 4% since the beginning of the year [3][6]. - As of December 22, the Yuan continues to appreciate slowly, with the latest exchange rate at 0.1420, indicating a steady upward movement [5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - Three main factors are contributing to the Yuan's appreciation: 1. The US Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which have lowered borrowing costs and weakened the USD. The Fed has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points over the year, with expectations for further cuts in the near future [9][11]. 2. A year-end trend where companies are converting USD to CNY to avoid losses from currency depreciation, leading to increased demand for the Yuan [15][16]. 3. The need for a strong Yuan to support its internationalization, as many countries are moving away from reliance on the USD, making a stable and appreciating Yuan more attractive for trade settlements [18][20]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is increasingly bullish on the Yuan, with both onshore and offshore rates reaching 14-month highs, indicating strong expectations for further appreciation [5][6].

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月22日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，12月19日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.88，按周 涨0.17；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.56，按周涨0.28；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.36，按周涨0.17。 多位分析师表示，得益于季节性等因素支撑，人民币展现出较强的升值动能。由于人民币对非美货币同样表现较强，人民币对一篮子货币持续小幅升值。 中金公司研究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳表示，近期中间价与即期汇率一齐升值，但前者升幅明显偏向温和，逆周期因子从此前的引导中间价持续强于即 期汇率，转变为减缓中间价升值速率，使其持续弱于即期汇率。 "中间价与即期汇率的偏离压力或源于人民币汇率稳定而持续的升值趋势，美元指数与人民币的相关性降至逾5年低点，目前仍在持续走低。"李刘阳认为， 这或凸显出年末之际，在季节性等因素的支撑下，市场对人民币升值预期较为稳固，当前人民币期权市场的隐含波动率持续在年内低点徘徊。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.88 | | BIS货 ...

站在今年年底回头看，人民币这一年的走势让很多人没想到——它不但没跌，反而涨了不少。 年初贸易摩擦刚开始时，人民币一度贬到7.4。当时很多人还照着2018年贸易冲突的老经验推测，以为人民币会继续贬 值，甚至可能破8。 （人民币年内走势图） 照大多数人的直观想法，国内经济有压力，外部贸易摩擦又比2018年更激烈，人民币应该像当年那样承受很大贬值压力 才对，怎么还升值了呢？ 但实际情况恰恰相反，人民币从4月份的低点7.4开始一路走高，到现在已经升值了4%，离7这个关口只差一口气。 在我看来，主要有两个原因： 第一，美元今年比较弱，贡献了大约三成的原因； 第二，政策起了支撑作用，贡献了七成。 说美元弱贡献了三成，主要是因为美元跌的时候，人民币并没有跟着大幅升值；而下半年人民币走强的节奏，更是光靠 美元走弱解释不通的。 看看下面这张图： 这是美元指数今年的走势。能明显看出，美元上半年就跌了差不多10%，下半年基本在98附近震荡。 而这期间： 上半年，日元、韩元分别升值9%和8%，人民币只升了2%； 全年来看，日元、韩元还略微贬值（-1%和-0.4%），人民币却整体升值了4%。 所以我觉得， 美元走弱确实在上半年带动了非 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign exchange market remains stable, with banks continuing to report a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, indicating resilience in foreign trade and foreign investment [1][5][6] - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB, maintaining a surplus with a narrowing gap [1][2] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, achieving a surplus for seven consecutive months [2][4] Group 2 - In November, banks reported foreign-related income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB, with a cumulative foreign-related income of 511,208 billion RMB and payments of 497,719 billion RMB from January to November [3][4] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached 1.3 trillion USD in November, with a month-on-month increase of 8%, resulting in a surplus of 17.8 billion USD [5][6] - The USD index weakened overall in November, with a decline of 0.29%, while the RMB appreciated against the USD, particularly in late November [6][7][8] Group 3 - The relationship between RMB appreciation and bank settlement and sales creates a positive feedback loop, supporting each other [8] - Experts suggest that the end of the year will see increased settlement activity due to corporate financial settlements, potentially expanding bank customer settlement scales and providing further support for RMB appreciation [9] - The complexity of factors influencing cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rates is highlighted, indicating that monthly variations in bank settlement data should not be directly equated with capital flows or exchange rate changes [9]