Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to experience fluctuations following a significant drop last Friday, with current prices showing a slight decline and key support levels being tested [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.12% at $4,077.31 per ounce, with intraday lows dipping below $4,050 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a decline of 0.32%, trading at $4,081.20 per ounce, with a minimum price of $4,051.10 during the session [2][3]. Market Influences - The primary factor for the recent gold price correction is the sharp decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with market probabilities for a December cut dropping from over 90% to below 50% [3][4]. - A strengthening U.S. dollar has increased the cost of gold for non-U.S. investors, further impacting demand [3][4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions have led to a withdrawal of some safe-haven investments from the gold market [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate high volatility and a potential trading range around the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with market participants focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic data [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and concerns over U.S. debt impacting dollar credibility [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility is a normal correction following historical highs, with expectations for a rebound once stabilization occurs [4].

格隆汇11月17日｜摩根士丹利：预计美元指数将在2026年上半年跌至94，随后在年底前反弹至99。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the US Dollar Index will decline to 94 in the first half of 2026, followed by a rebound to 99 by the end of the year [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Forecast** - The US Dollar Index is expected to drop to 94 in the first half of 2026 [1] - A recovery is anticipated, with the index projected to rise to 99 by the end of 2026 [1]

来源：滚动播报 摩根士丹利预测美元指数将在上半年跌至94，年底前反弹至99。 ...

受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 新华财经上海11月17日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，11月14日当周三大人民币汇率指数下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.83，按周跌 0.13；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.16，按周跌0.03；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.26，按周跌0.08。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.83 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 104.16 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 92.26 | 美国政府上周结束停摆，市场风险偏好在前半周一度走高，但劳动力市场的疲弱迹象再现，而多位美联储官员对12月降息的鹰派表态使得市场风险偏好在后 半周明显走低，支撑了传统避险货币走势的同时也限制了美元的下行幅度。 具体来看，上周（11月10至14日）美元指数累计跌0.26%报99.28；非美货币在美元整体回落的背景下表现有所分化，欧元上周累计上涨0.48%。日元收跌 0.72%，瑞士法郎上周大幅收涨1.4%，澳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite the rebound of the US dollar index since October, the RMB exchange rate has shown strong resilience. [1] International Balance of Payments - In the third quarter of this year, China's exports to non-US economies performed well, supporting export performance and leading to a rebound in the current account surplus. [1] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China showed a quarter-on-quarter decline, while outbound direct investment accelerated compared to the second quarter. [1] - There has been significant outflow of foreign capital from bond holdings, indicating increased volatility in capital flows within securities accounts. [1] Future Outlook - The pace of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key short-term factor influencing the US dollar index. [1] - In the fourth quarter, China's export growth is expected to decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which may weaken the current account's support for the RMB exchange rate. [1] - However, policies related to investment and consumption are gradually being implemented, and the central bank's stable exchange rate policy is expected to maintain a balanced approach, leading to a gradual alignment of the RMB exchange rate towards the midpoint. [1]

日线图上，黄金价格已形成标准的"空头排列"形态，价格持续运行在5日、10日、20日、60日均线下 方，各均线依次向下发散，对价格形成层层压制。KDJ指标虽处于超卖区间，但尚未出现明显的金叉反 转信号，且J线仍在向下延伸，表明短期下跌动能尚未完全释放。布林带呈现开口向下的扩张态势，价 格沿下轨持续下行，下轨支撑位同步下移至4030附近，上轨压力则位于4150一线，布林带的扩张形态进 一步确认了短期趋势的弱势。此外，日线级别上，前期低点4000一线作为重要心理关口与技术支撑位， 其有效性将成为下周走势的关键看点。 黄金行情分析： 近期黄金价格持续承压下行，核心逻辑在于市场对美联储12月降息的预期显著降温。此前，通胀数据的 阶段性回落与经济增长的温和放缓，让市场普遍押注美联储将启动宽松周期以支撑经济，但最新公布的 美国非农就业数据超预期强劲、核心PCE物价指数仍维持在2%以上的目标区间上方，叠加美联储官员 密集释放"维持高利率以巩固通胀降温成果"的鹰派言论，彻底扭转了市场的宽松预期。降息预期的消退 直接推升美元指数与美国国债收益率走强，而黄金作为无息资产，其吸引力大幅削弱。与此同时，短期 期货交易员在价格持续下挫过 ...

21世纪经济报道 . 权威、专业、深度、有趣！用经济思维看世界。 互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120180007 人民币汇率走强，11月14日，人民币对美元汇率在岸价逼近7.09，一度达到7.0908，创一年来新高。 专家表示，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 以下文章来源于21世纪经济报道 ，作者21记者 展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 市场汇率方面，11月14日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率同样呈现小幅上涨走势，截至北京时间12点，在岸人民币报7.0937，离岸人民币报7.0935。 此外，中国外汇交易中心11月7日更新数据显示，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.96，BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.19，SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报 92.34，均创今年5月以来新高。 从年度走势来看，美元兑人民币整体走出一个单边下跌的形态。今年以来，以1美元兑7.27人民币（离岸价）开局，随后美国连续暂停降息，美元曾呈现强 势，离岸人民币的低点在今年4月8日产生，一度触及1美元 ...

每经AI快讯，11月14日，美元指数跌破99，日内跌0.19%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a one-year high of 7.0908 on November 14, driven by a weak dollar environment and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1][2]. Exchange Rate Trends - On November 14, the RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0825, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [2]. - The RMB has shown a consistent upward trend against the dollar throughout the year, starting at 7.27 and experiencing a low of 7.42879 in April before rebounding as the dollar weakened [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential to test the 7.0 mark against the dollar, influenced by a weak dollar and seasonal demand for currency exchange [5]. - By 2026, the RMB is expected to experience moderate appreciation, supported by a favorable external environment and domestic economic stability [6][7]. Economic Factors - The RMB's strength is attributed to the anticipated acceleration of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact of US tariff policies on the US economy, limiting the dollar's upward potential [4][6]. - Domestic policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt management, are expected to stabilize the economy and support the RMB [4][6]. Market Sentiment - Market analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the RMB's ability to break the 7.0 barrier, with some projecting a year-end rate closer to 7.0 under baseline scenarios [5][6]. - The potential for a new appreciation cycle starting in 2025 is also highlighted, with expectations for the RMB to reach levels between 6.70 and 6.80 by the end of 2026 [7].